I was locked out of my work account yesterday so I thought I'd make a graph I'd been thinking about for a while.
One way to think about power creep is that, if you want to win and have access to the entire history of cards, you're going to be more likely to play recent cards, since they are power crept. Formats like Legacy and Pauper, where the outsized mistakes of early cards like the power 9 are not legal, should tilt recent. I don't have a general impression that this is true, though, so I wanted to see. I took mtgtop8 data from top 8 decks at competitive events (including sideboards, including MTGO) in April-September 2026 and graphed what I saw by the *original printing year* of the cards included.
We *do* see that there are way more copies of cards from recent years in the included decks. The top-left graph, which shows the total number of copies of cards from a given year played per deck has gone up since 2020, with 2024 (Modern Horizons 3) as a high watermark.
However, part of this is that they print way more cards per year than they used to. If we take things relative to the number of printed cards, it gets way more flat! 2024 is still a bit of a peak, but now the early years are the years with the top playrates, and the recent bump looks pretty similar to 2002-2003 (Mirrodin era) and 2010-2012 (Worldwake-Return to Ravnica). (note, banned cards are excluded from the denominator but if you track the share of cards that are banned by printing year it's fairly flat outside of 93/94 so this doesn't explain much).
Shifting to what share of cards saw *any* play (which reduces the impact of a single super-powerful card from an otherwise unimpressive year) or saw 10+ copies across all the submitted decks (which is similar but avoids random things like how yes someone did register a single Glasses of Urza in a top 8 pauper deck in 2026) also looks mostly flat, with perhaps a slight bump post-2020. All the graphs do show a big fallow period from roughly 2013-2019 where those cards don't get played much. Comparing pre-fallow period to post-fallow period, in Pauper 7.1% of all valid (ie common, non-Un) cards pre-2013 saw 10+ copies, while it's 9.3% in 2020+. In Legacy that's 2.1% pre-2013 and 1.9% (lower!) in 2020+.
Interesting takeaways:
- It's obvious to anyone comparing standard or limited formats across time that cards are way more powerful now than before. The floor is higher. But this analysis is about the ceiling - cards good enough to compete against *all* other cards in an eternal format. The ceiling is surprisingly *not* that much higher, with early (pre-2013) and recent Magic sending a fairly similar share of cards to the competitive level in eternal formats.
- 2013-2019 appears to be butts for eternal formats. I'm surprised how low 2025 is too (2026 is also low but keep in mind the data starts in April 2026 so not all the 2026 cards were legal as of this graph).
- It's really shocking what a high share of pauper-legal cards see play in pauper. In most years between 5-10% of all newly printed commons show up in modern Pauper decks in at least 10 copies. Granted there are like 4k Pauper decks and so 300,000 slots available to put those 10 copies in, but to me that's still a very high number. Brewer's paradise indeed!
- While I focused on the share of cards to try to get at power level, the top-left graph which doesn't adjust for number of cards printed is worth something too, as it tracks a bit more closely to "what share of the cards that you see are recent" which it looks like is going to be quite high simply due to more cards being printed, even if the per-card hit rate isn't that much higher.