Made this as a film room thing for tonight. You're behind Nix's facemask for 4 plays: what Seattle shows before the snap, what he's reading, and how it plays out. The plays aren't real film, they're built from both teams' actual tendencies through Week 5. Every number on screen is real.
Why Seattle's defense is such a problem right now:
- 5.5 yards per pass allowed, fewest in the league
- a pick every 24 dropbacks, most in the league
- man coverage on only 16% of throws, also the fewest. It's almost all zone, so every defender is watching the QB
- they rush exactly four 75% of the time and still get pressure on 35% of dropbacks
What's going on in each play:
Play 1 is trips, Denver's most common look (48% of their snaps, league is 37%). Seattle doesn't change anything against it, they're still in Cover 2 or 3 on 76% of throws. Two high, corners squatting at 5 yards, so Nix checks it down. He's at 4.3 YPA vs Cover 2 this year and his average throw against it is 2 yards past the line.
Play 2 is bunch, which Denver runs about twice as often as the league average (16% vs 8.5%). One high, middle of the field closed, four man rush, and the pocket's gone in 2.3 seconds. Nix is at 3.9 YPA when pressured.
Play 3 is a run into a 7 man box. Seattle almost never brings an 8th guy (2% of runs) and allows 2.9 a carry with 7 in there.
Play 4 is how he beats it. 2x2, which is Denver's best passing look at 6.7 YPA, ball out on time to Engram in the gap between the linebackers and the safeties. Engram and Harvey have 154 yards on 23 targets against two high looks this year.
Worth noting Seattle is down two linebackers tonight (Drake Thomas and Chazz Surratt), which is exactly the underneath area Denver needs to attack. Denver's without Surtain on the other side.
Stats are through Week 5 so it's 5 games each, grain of salt. Disclosure: we make RotoBot, a sports data app, these are our numbers. Curious what Broncos fans think he should be looking for.
