the mental fortitude it takes to to get out of the minors and establish yourself in the show isnt considered enough by fans I think.
the grind of professional baseball is unlike any other sport in that the slightest change in your motivation or self-belief can happen very easily, which can lead to more fatigue, both physical and mental, which invariably leads to changes in your biomechanics. and since baseball has such a small margin for error in those biomechanics, all of a sudden you're playing terribly with no obvious explanation.
just coming back from THAT takes a huge amount of mental focus, let alone coming back from an injury that changes your mechanics
you have to remember half the talent in MLB came from international signings- so were not even drafted in the first place.
All stars tend to make more than 1 ASG (if you get 1 you are more likely to get 2- like Harper has like 10).
I suspect is is much lower than one would think. Generally for top 10 prospects (which is a higher class than just 1st rounders) have about a 30% chance of being all stars. So it is lower than you think, since that % goes down pretty fast since maybe the guy who went 1.1 is going to be top 10 right away.
Teams that almost always draft late tend to be in this boat. as you leave the top 5-10 the hit rate goes ways down. Most 1st rounders make the bigs (i think around 70%), but remember only 1 1st overall failed to reach the bigs, so as you get deeper into the first round it falls off.
This list lacks a guy who popped, but also has a lot of journeymen.
Ellsbury was a relatively close 2nd in the 2011 (?) MVP voting, and I think the led the AL in WAR that year. He was a very good player, and underrated. Maybe not "a guy who popped," but a very solid pick.
Jay Groome, man. Whatta throwback. Ellsbury, Bard, Barnes, Benintendi are so far the only ones to have had respectable careers, no shade to David Murphy
Benintendi was a stud before that barely rib cage injury before he was traded away and never the same since. Still won the World Series, won a gold glove.
Dont forget about Henry Godbout, a C2 and Anthony Eyanson 3rd rounder from 2025.
Henry Godbout hit 15 home runs in only 220 at bats. Went on a Gasper like tear to end the season. He can hit for a higher average too. If Mead doesnt stick at 2nd base, Godbout could be the guy. He got promoted to AA in season so I suspect him to start off with Portland but might be promoted to Worcester if he goes on another likely tear.
Different sport, but wasn't Tom Brady like a 5th rounder or something? I've seen a resume he prepared assuming no one would draft him. Says a lot about analytics
Different sports are not really comparable. In the NBA the hit rate in the first round ranges from 40-95%, NFL expects a hit rate of 66%, in MBL the median first round pick has a total career WAR of 0. Interestingly the uncertainty of the draft correlates to the rounds in the draft and total roster spots (including practice squad & affiliates) on the teams.
Brady was not at all highly-regarded, coming out of Michigan (he had a fine senior season, but was always overshadowed by Brian Griese). The only QB anybody was excited about in that class was Marc Bulger.
The stuff that made Brady a winner - stuff that almost nobody has - just can't be quantified, or sometimes even identified.
Yes and no. He sucked at both forever after in his Red Sox existence. Then was out of baseball for a few years. Then was coaching high school kids, who convinced him to try again. Then caught on for a few really good years in Colorado.
I do recall him really sucking in September 2011. I think he cost Wakefield his 200th win like 4 times, not to mention his role in the eventual collapse (though obviously he was far from the only thing that went wrong).
Holy crap this just stirred memories of Wakefield almost getting that 200th win.
Googles
It took Tim Wakefield 51 days (from July 24, 2011, to September 13, 2011) to go from 199 to 200 career wins.
• Win No. 199: July 24, 2011 (against the Seattle Mariners)
• Win No. 200: September 13, 2011 (against the Toronto Blue Jays)
• The Drought: He went winless across 8 consecutive starts (0-for-8 or 0-for-9 span) over a 51-day stretch before finally earning his 200th victory.
Other direction. Pap was a starter in his rookie appearances in 2005 and then took over as closer in 06. I don’t remember them trying to reverse that decision though.
OP is kinda correct in that they did try making him back into a starter after his legendary 2006 season tho. Gave up on it before the season started tho, thankfully.
i dont remember his pitxhes.. seems like that’s something that has changed a lot recently in general. starters. they used to have 3 pitches.. now theyve got about 6.
anyways pap was having shoulder subluxation issues.
They wanted to go back to having him start and were actively stretching him out at the start of spring training but then Papelbon went to Francona and told him he wanted to remain closer because he knew he could do it and the team didn’t have a clear alternative.
Similar to the conversation Miller had with the Padres this year. He likes it and wants to keep doing it.
This is bad, yes, but if you look at most years first round picks in MLB it’s like a 5-10% hit rate on starting caliber big leaguers. It’s not like any other sport in this way. So hard to predict how guys will develop/such a long lead up from being drafted to actually contributing in the league with infinite variables to mess things up along the way.
Bobby V/Cherington ruined him, Cherington by demanding he be a starter and Valentine by being an asshole who left the kid out there way too long in his starts as a way of showing him up. The logical thing after three starts where he struggled was move him back to the pen, but no. I’m glad Bard rebounded and ended his career on a better note in the NL. He never should’ve been put in that spot tho.
thats the thing…
the other pro sports you go directly from draft onto the team maybe a starter if youre a higher 1st round… baseball can take years between college and mlb.
strange since its so much less physicality than football or basketball
https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/s/p2AxCBYWhZ middle of the pack. Baseball is just that difficult to project. The draft also ignores the international scouting, but that is probably similar.
Goes to show prospects don't mean a whole lot, some of these guys turned out great, but most of them were okay or disappeared off the face of the planet.
Deciding what to consider Mayer is weird. He was actually still a really good 1st round pick, because he turned into a top prospect with tons of value. He's more of a failed prospect because the team failed to turn that top prospect capital into anything useful
I was high on him really early- but when drafted the talk was like a 30% chance of being Richie Sexson- and most likely a bust like so many tall power hitters (that is a profile with an absolute ton of bust).
Yup. Still some Roman fanboys out there, but hard to find too many proud Mayer hypers now.
You can identify them by their silent downvotes. They’re not pissed at him for sucking—they’re pissed that the doubters they mocked were actually right. 🤣🤣🤣
The first round pick isnt necessarily the best player picked in the draft anymore.
2020 was a bust with Nick Yorke. 2021 was a bust with Marcelo Mayer. Many would argue that he has the talent if took the game more seriously.
In 2022, Mikey Romero was first round pick but Roman Anthony was the player the team invested in the most, giving more money to him at 2.5 million over the 2.3 million given to Romero which is much less significant ghen the 6.6 million given to Mayer. Teel was a good pick, traded in the package for Crochet. 4 million bonus. The next year's first rounder was Montgomery who hasnt impressed much in his rookie year. Witherspoon was next and traded for Adley Rutschman. Red Sox in this years draft gave equal money to first round pick Jake Schaffner and Jace Mataczynski, of 2 million a piece. So I kinda consider Roman Anthony and Jace Mataczynski unofficial first round draft picks based on $ invested.
I can admit I don't follow the MLB draft process but a SS? Would a LF, 2B or even 1B be a more concerning need? Story now and then Arias seems to be the future so why that pick? Do they think he can/does Jake also play those IF positions?
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u/OrestMercator9876 2d ago
I bet a lot of teams’ slates look like this. Baseball is really tough to project.