First Round Draft Picks Since 2005

[u/TawkinBoutDaFightins]

This is first round picks only, since 2005.

The summary of this research is primarily to see what % of each team's first round picks (since 2005) contributed at a decent level (5+ career WAR) in the majors. This is sorted by percentage in the final column.

Notes:
-Data from Baseball Reference
-Includes players who were drafted but did not sign
-Only the June draft, so international signings etc are excluded
-Takes no consideration for what team "developed" them, it's purely based on who drafted them (e.g. Zack Wheeler was drafted in the first round by the Giants in 2009, played 37 games in the minors in 2010-11, then traded to the Mets for Carlos Beltran; Wheeler thus contributes to this chart as a Giants' first round pick)

1st RD picks column: Total number of first round picks since 2005 (includes compensatory picks etc)
Played in MLB column: Total number of first round picks who logged any time in the majors
Total 5+ WAR column: All first round picks (by count) who tallied 5+ career WAR
5+WAR per draft pick (sorted by this column): Previous column divided by total number of first round draft picks (i.e. what % of first round draft picks earned 5+ career WAR)

[u/No-Bobcat-7247]

I think an important piece of context for this graph would be average position of the picks for each team.

For example, 25 percent of your first round picks getting 5+ WAR when you’re frequently picking in the top 10 is vastly different from 25 percent if you’re a team picking in the bottom 10 frequently

[u/TawkinBoutDaFightins → u/No-Bobcat-7247]

Good point, and I just realized it wouldn't be that hard for me to add. I still have the draft data saved. Maybe if I'm bored at some point, I'll do the math and add it in.

EDIT: I got the results but won't be updating the graph soon. If you're curious the Reds' average draft pick was 21.94 and the Rays' is 28.02. The Cardinals have the lowest average draft pick at 29.24. The highest average draft pick is the Royals at 16.97.

[u/Red_Sox0905 → u/TawkinBoutDaFightins]

I was confused about the average picks until I remembered about supplemental 1st round picks.

[u/TawkinBoutDaFightins → u/Red_Sox0905]

Yeah and some of them I never realized were that deep. One "first rounder" was drafted 60th overall, haha.

[u/FuckingLoveArborDay → u/TawkinBoutDaFightins]

Royals draft history is ugly. Post Bobby Witt the next 3 picks (top 10 picks) all will never play in the majors.

Since drafting Gordon in 2005, the Royals have drafted top 10 13 times. Only 3 of them have career WAR more than 4. Only 5 of them have positive WAR.

[u/questionneverends → u/FuckingLoveArborDay]

What happened to those 3 picks?

[u/FuckingLoveArborDay → u/questionneverends]

They are bad. Asa Lacy is out of baseball because he was bad plus injured.

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/TawkinBoutDaFightins]

This would imply the Cardinals are pretty good at drafting, problem is, they have a nasty habit of unloading stars before they become stars.

Idk how many of them have been first round picks, but I imagine at least a couple.

[u/BackInRed → u/MahomestoHel-aire]

Not really, pretty sure this is in reference to the Ozuna trade which did turn out horrible since we lost Sandy, but Sandy was an IFA (like Randy and Adolis). Still, they were more likely to hold on to guys too long than the other way around.

Going back to 2000 and looking at draft picks in the first 5 rounds that had no or little success with the Cardinals but were good elsewhere, or were traded while in the minors. I was also quite loose with the definition of 'good':

• Zac Gallen (2016 R3, Ozuna trade)
• Carson Kelly (2012 R2, Goldschmidt trade)
• Chris Perez (2006 R1, DeRosa trade)
• Adam Ottavino (2006 R1, waivers)
• Patrick Wisdom (2012 R1, Drew Robinson trade)
• Marco Gonzales (2013 R1, O'Neill trade)
• Dan Haren (2001 R2, Mulder trade)

Not exactly a who's who of stars. Dan Haren by far the best we gave away, but that was so long ago that people probably don't even remember when he retired.

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/BackInRed]

Thanks the breakdown! So you’re saying we actually kept most if not all of the players referenced above?

[u/nufandan → u/MahomestoHel-aire]

No, he's saying look at all the top picks they've traded that didn't turn out to be much of a loss even if they were "bad" trades. They traded a lot of other high pick guys that he didn't even list, and it worked out fine or well for them; Zack Cox, Rob Kaminsky, Brett Wallace/Clayton Mortensen, Tyrell Jenkins/Shelby Miller, etc.

Too many Cards fans harp on the Ozuna or maybe Libby trade and then conflate stuff like the Lane Thomas or Luke Voit trades as being mortal failures of the org; "everyone becomes a star once the Cards trade them!" is a common, overblown statement. St Louis has a pretty good recent track record in the draft, especially later rounds.

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/nufandan]

Yes, I got all that. So of all the players we drafted in the first and kept, who is represented in the chart?

[u/nufandan → u/MahomestoHel-aire]

all of them, read the description

[u/MahomestoHel-aire → u/nufandan]

I'm asking for names, my friend. They mentioned all the players we didn't keep, who are the one's we did?

[u/nufandan → u/MahomestoHel-aire]

Every 1st round pick they've made it repped in the chart

If you're asking which picks they never traded, i think that's pretty easy to look up on your end. I don't know if your idea of "kept" would extend to like Flathery or Lynn though.

[u/eekbarbaderkle]

Damn, the Rays must be a really bad franchise that struggles mightily with player development.

[u/Jonjon428 → u/eekbarbaderkle]

It's funny how them and Atlanta are down there but balance it out by going nuts with international prospects. (Meanwhile my Marlins are there but don't do either)

[u/iagreegoguard_s → u/eekbarbaderkle]

Yeah, and I bet those Guardians have a bad win-loss record over this timeframe.

[u/CaptainSolo96 → u/eekbarbaderkle]

the annual FO poll on who is good at X and Y as a franchise is always funny when it gets to the draft, as the Rays get highly rated, with their lineup and rotation of ...not their own draft picks

[u/tjkoala → u/eekbarbaderkle]

I'd be curious to these stats across all rounds not just first round picks.

[u/Eo292]

Brewers Guards and Rays have the worst percentages lmao. Biggest takeaway I guess would be first round doesn’t matter immensely because those have to be the three most efficient orgs relative to payroll.

[u/KahlanRahl → u/Eo292]

At least for the Guards, they tend to focus on guys who will sign for below-slot in the first round to free up money to take shots later.

[u/Lobster_Considerer → u/Eo292]

Brewers, Guards, and Rays are all perennially competitive teams drafting at the end of the first round. Not surprising that their outcomes are worse in context.

[u/Eo292 → u/Lobster_Considerer]

Not really, they’re great teams but small market teams have to rebuild, even those teams have had extended windows in the top half of the first round.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Milwaukee_Brewers_first-round_draft_picks

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Cleveland_Guardians_first-round_draft_picks

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Tampa_Bay_Rays_first-round_draft_picks

[u/nufandan]

Man, the Rays would've looked even worse here if it wasn't for drafting Longoria in '06 and Price in '07.

[u/mysterysackerfice → u/nufandan]

Her run on Desperate Housewives was notable.

[u/Suspicious_Mind_67]

Other than Kershaw who was the 7 pick, the highest the Dodgers have picked in that time is #15. Most of their first round picks have been in the 20s and 30s. Price of being so good for so long....

[u/ScroogeMcDust]

Seems like when we hit, we really hit, Jesus Christ

[u/TawkinBoutDaFightins → u/ScroogeMcDust]

Leading the pack in 20+!

[u/Chewalk → u/TawkinBoutDaFightins]

Baez, Bryant, Schwarber, Happ, Nico and... Josh Donaldson lol

[u/jfresh42 → u/Chewalk]

I had to look up Donaldson and saw that there were 64 1st. Round picks the year he was drafted. He was picked 48th!

I feel like that shouldn't count😂😂😂

[u/iagreegoguard_s → u/jfresh42]

Seriously, who are we fooling with a 64 pick First Round 😂

[u/Chewalk → u/jfresh42]

He was a compensation pick for Juan Pierre!

[u/lockethebro]

Nats are funny since it's Strasburg, Harper, Rendon, and Zimmerman and then a bunch of schmucks. Even the ones who had major league careers (Giolito, Dunning, etc.) mostly did it for other teams.

[u/involmasturb]

Must be infuriating as a Pirates fan. They clearly have excellent amateur scouting and have drafted legends like McCutchen, Cole, Skenes but also solid regulars like Pedro Alvarez, Ke'Bryan, Meadows, Baz, Lodolol but they never have long careers for Pittsburgh with the exception of McCutchen

[u/Busy-Drawing-2576]

Come on can't we go back 1 more year to get Verlander's numbers on here?

[u/Grade-AMasterpiece]

Being good at trades and developing the returns balances out the GODAWFUL drafting.

[u/Dapal5 → u/Grade-AMasterpiece]

it’s really not that bad, we have a trillion balance picks every year and a lot of competition at lower levels

[u/unique_user43]

quite a few surprising things in here. some that go against common narratives.

among those, shocked to see cubs rankes so high, given our seemingly shitty farm system since i’ve been alive. but theo had a hell of a run in the 20-teens. i miss theo.

[u/unibash]

I think a more interesting question is who has gotten the most value out of later rounds. That’s where the surplus value lives.

[u/STFxPrlstud]

So who does Nick Lodolo count for? He was first drafted by the Pirates out of HS in the 1st but didn't sign, then drafted by the Reds 3 years later. Or does he just count for both?

[u/TawkinBoutDaFightins → u/STFxPrlstud]

Interesting case and good catch. He counts for both teams in this.

[u/BuxtonTheLamp]

Surely if we draft this well then we’ve won a playoff series during this time!

[u/Studmystery_007]

Griffey was #1 overall and definitely had more than 20+ WAR….

Edit: Didn’t see the “since 2005” part my b

[u/RichardNixon345 → u/Studmystery_007]

Pretty sure Griffey was drafted before 2005.

[u/TawkinBoutDaFightins → u/Studmystery_007]

He was drafted in 1987. This is only drafts going back to 2005.