Teams that almost always draft late tend to be in this boat. as you leave the top 5-10 the hit rate goes ways down. Most 1st rounders make the bigs (i think around 70%), but remember only 1 1st overall failed to reach the bigs, so as you get deeper into the first round it falls off.
This list lacks a guy who popped, but also has a lot of journeymen.
Ellsbury was a relatively close 2nd in the 2011 (?) MVP voting, and I think the led the AL in WAR that year. He was a very good player, and underrated. Maybe not "a guy who popped," but a very solid pick.
316
u/OrestMercator9876 2d ago
I bet a lot of teams’ slates look like this. Baseball is really tough to project.