Did an overview about 2 months ago when it was obvious the 2026 Orioles were not a playoff team (well it was well past that point). https://www.reddit.com/r/orioles/comments/1venyp3/2027_roster_construction_and_needs/

I am going to build upon that analysis with a few end-of-season stats to bolster what the front office should be doing this offseason. Going to preface this with my assumption is there is no lockout as that drastically changes the approach of the offseason and early 2027. Why? Because depending on the length of a lockout, it affects when players could be traded (40 man rosters are locked during lockouts). Also note that the winter meetings are a week after the CBA expires. I wonder how aggressive teams will be signing FAs prior to the deadline as there could be a significant amount of time between when a player has a physical and when they report to a modified/late spring training. It could also affect incentives since there could be fewer, or no, games in 2027 to build stats and meet contract triggers. Probably can't give out player options either.

So, where to start: recapping expected roster turnover:

Bassitt, Rogers, Akin, Kitteridge, Mountcastle, Robert Jr, Taveras, and Eflin are all likely to be FAs either due to contracts expiring, DFAs, or club options not being exercised. Rogers will get a QO but remains to be seen if he will accept. I don't see any of the others returning due to cost/injury/performance.

Returning position players (14 players):

14 players is too many; they will not carry 3 catchers and 2nd and 3rd base have too much depth. Tough to say which direction they go at C since Pozo actually seemed like a decent backup but Narvaez's defense is attractive if you don't mind the automatic out in the lineup. According to Baseball Ref, Narvaez had the lowest WAR (-0.6) on the team for 2026. He's not good but also has options remaining and could find him self in AAA as depth. Ethan Anderson could get a real look in ST as the backup C. I would think, assuming everyone is healthy (which is not a great assumption), that Jackson is the odd man out in the INF depth. That brings the position player count to 12 without making any improvements and leaving 1 spot open.

So who on the returning list provided the least value? Beavers (-0.5), Jackson (0.1), Pozo (0.3), Holliday (0.2), and TON (0.5). Lets just assume Jackson in optioned per above. The INF is jam packed without him, so the OF is the easiest place to make a significant improvement in an every day role. Beavers was straight up bad in 2026 in the field (-9 LF and -20 RF DRS?!?!) and at the plate. His 2025 was better with a positive DRS while being league average at the plate. I doubt they will cut bait on him and would slot him in as a 4th OF. This means there is a spot for a LF, preferably a RHH. Randy Arozerena would instantly be the best player on the 2026 Orioles with a WAR of 5.7 and a middling DRS in LF. He could be in high demand on the FA market, but luckily for the Orioles, the deep pocketed teams all seem set in LF. He is coming off of a career year though and could be a mildly risky signing depending on contract size and length. Ian Happ would be a modest upgrade but has similar OBP/BA problems as the rest of the Orioles' lineup which I would shy away from. Ramon Laureano and Taylor Ward will also be out on the market but would the Orioles be interested in a reunion? Ward was straight up a disaster post-trade. Laureano was not good for the Padres this year. Based on recent performances, I would pass on them and the rest of the LF FA market. The biggest wildcards here are whether LRJ's option becomes more attractive due to the thin FA market, or Bradfield gets a legit look at the MLB level based on prospect pedigree even though he has struggled in the minors. Kjerstad is out of options, so he will either be on the roster, or passed through waivers. He has not shown to be any improvement though, so I hope this is not the direction they go in. Christian Franklin and Reed Trimble should be in AAA as depth at best. Rece Hinds will be DFA'ed as he is out of options. Trade options with teams that are shown to dump talent are: Bryan Reynolds (3.8), Tyler Soderstrom (2.6), Riley Greene (2.6), Heriberto Hernández (2.3), and Jake McCarthy (1.9).

Looking to the pitching staff:

As is tradition, SP is still a problem. Even if Rogers accepts the QO and pushed Povich out, you still have a shaky rotation. I could see Povich in the pen taking a role that combines Akin and Suarez now that Walker and Wolfram are situational LHPs. In order to improve the rotation, you have to make room between Young and Gibson as Baz and Bradish are locks. It would make sense to flip one of the two young guys for a LHP or possibly as a deal for a LF and sign a FA SP. Freddy Peralta (RHP 5.5), Kris Bubic (LHP 4.4), Clay Holmes (opt out? RHP 3.7), Michael King (opt out? RHP 3.6), Robbie Ray (LHP 3.1), Shota Imanaga (LHP 2.7), and Foster Griffin (2.6) are all notable possibilities on the market (potentially in the case of the opt outs). Or, if you like spicey: Eyanson/Dzierwa/Forret get real looks for the 5th SP. Not as quite on the same level as those 3, Hunter/L Wells/German are in the MiLB near-ready too. Since there are so many of them so close to the MLB, the Orioles could look to use one or more in a trade for proven MLB talent. Braxton Bragg is still working back from TJS.

The bullpen is hard to project as these guys are effectively different pitchers from year to year. The list above probably reflects the opening day pen unless there are trades moving any of them. Luis De Leon has options left and could be the 1st guy up or, if one of the above has a really rough spring, he could make the team out of ST.

Others on 40 Man: Jose Barrero - no options (SS), Cameron Foster (RP), Yaramil Hiraldo (RP), Yosver Zuleta (RP), Cam Sanders (RP), Colin Selby (RP), Codi Heuer (RP). I didn't do a deep dive into these guys as they seem to be fringy players at best.

Between the list of departures and this list of others on the 40 man, there should be plenty of room to shuffle players off the IL and add a couple FAs.

Trade bait:

1. Creed Willems (C/1B) - similar profile to Basallo (questionable defense without the same hitting ceiling)
2. Hunter/L Wells/German (SPs) - higher ceiling pitching prospects at the same stage of development in front of them.
3. Young/Gibson (SP) - dependent on acquiring TOR arm(s).
4. Kjerstad (OF) - out of options, likely getting very poor return if moved. More likely he gets DFA'ed and claimed.
5. Henderson (SS) - Only 2 years of control remaining and little chance of him signing an extension. Only way his trade value goes up is a strong 1st half of 2027. Expect him to be traded at the deadline unless he is a critical piece to the Orioles' playoff run in 2027.
6. CES/Mayo (3B) - 3rd is crowded, but I think they can make it work with Mayo, CES, and Westy all on the roster. Unlikely this happens sans something else big happening on the 26 man roster.

Westy, Holliday, Beavers are not listed because they will not sell low (for performance or health).

Offseason thread for the week: news, rumours and anything else.