Mind you, I don’t have millions or anything

But when discussing finances online and someone comments saying my numbers are bullshit - I never get angry - It’s the opposite - I get flattered.

Like wow, I must be doing better than I give myself credit for because someone think it‘s a lie/unrealistic!

Anyone relate?

Has anyone here retire with kid(s) and less than $1m net worth, how did you do it? Where are you in your retirement and how sustainable is your plan in this economy

well the Bond Market has once again decided that Everyone Must Die haha. 10 year Treasury kissed 5.33% today before retreating to ~5.19. 30 year around 5.50. 5 year basically 5%. 2 year ~4.76%. Headline CPI came in 3.7% and suddenly every guy who spent the summer pricing immaculate disinflation is reopening the spreadsheet entitled higher_for_longer_FINAL_v7.xlsx. But for LeanFIRE this is, strangely, not altogether Bad.

The curve is positively sloped again. 2s10s is roughly +44bp. More importantly the 10-year real Treasury yield is around 2.8%. That is an absolutely savage risk-free real rate by the standards of most of the post-GFC era. You are being paid actual purchasing-power yield to sit there and do Nothing. This becomes particularly interesting when you have Tranches maturing throughout the Autumn:

2-year Notes. 5-year Notes. All manner of Notes.

The beautiful thing about holding individual Treasuries to maturity is that there is no existential discussion about whether TLT is Down 17% or duration is getting its Ass kicked. The Treasury reaches maturity and the United States Government deposits the face value back into my account. The Tranche has completed its Journey.

Then I have Optionality.

If the equity market finally undergoes the Long Promised Great Puking, principal becomes dry powder. If it doesn't, I can simply roll another portion of the ladder into yields that are now flirting with 5% across the intermediate curve.

LeanFIRE is about managing sequence-of-returns risk, duration exposure and reinvestment risk so that I don't have to sell NVIDIA at -38% because I require $1,700 to buy groceries and another Console. A lot of people miss this imho.

Coupon income handles increasingly large pieces of ordinary consumption. Maturing principal supplies liquidity at predetermined dates. Equities can be left alone during a drawdown. And because the maturity ladder continually returns capital, I never have to make one heroic macro call on whether the correct duration is 3 months or 30 years. This is Asset-Liability Management except the Liability is basically food, electricity and the State of Gaming. Discuss.

Is there something you see a lot of posts on this sub getting wrong or at least saying something that you see differently?