This was R+0.5% yesterday (which was trending slowly more R from R+0.3% 2 weeks ago). The blue dot suggests to me it might be even a small fraction in Hamilton's favor.

Unrelated: MN is down from 8% a few days ago.

Edit: Also the odds of 53D seats is higher than it's ever been (15%) & 54D seats is back to only fractionally behind 52D (13.6% vs 13.9% respectively). 52D is still the Deluxe forecast.

What races in the House are you going to be looking at that, more earlier in the night (before 9pm) will tell us the tale of what's going on? Interested to hear in what I should be looking for early on.

And of course, I gave three scenarios, but I guess I should also put purple splash in case Dems have a surprisingly underwhelming night.

This poll used Cook Political Report’s House ratings

Georgia doesn't have partisan voter registration, which makes early-vote numbers there less informative than in some other states. However, it does track the race of registered voters. Also, most unusually, it tracks whether voters are Hispanic.

Michael McDonald has been following the numbers as they come in. I hope he won't mind if I share a few of the highlights from behind his paywall.

To start with overall turnout: It's at a strong level for a midterm, but not extraordinary. The comparative numbers are as follows. Each percentage is the percent of registered voters who cast a ballot by the end of the first day, including both mail-in and in-person ballots.

2022: 1.93%

2024: 4.18%

2026: 2.42%

The pattern is similar among Black voters specifically:

2022: 2.53%

2024: 4.21%

2026: 2.89%

It's with Hispanics that things get interesting. First of all, there has been a surge in Hispanics registering to vote. The number of Hispanic RVs went up 12.6% since 2024, while the total number of RVs actually went down by 0.1%. Meanwhile, here are the Hispanic first-day turnout numbers:

2022: 0.69%

2024: 1.83%

2026: 1.07%

What stands out is that Hispanics had a relative dropoff from 2024 very similar to dropoff seen in the state as a whole. However, their turnout was exceptionally strong relative to what was seen in 2022. (The other thing that stands out is the persistent low absolute turnout by Hispanics, which unfortunately is a long-term issue.)

Looking at matters from another perspective, here is the percentage of first-day ballots cast by Hispanic RVs.

2022: 1.4%

2024: 2.0%

2026: 2.3%

All in all, it's fair to say Hispanic turnout has surged. Based on Georgia's first day, however, the surge is smaller than some have claimed. In particular, I think we should be skeptical of the claim by Tom Bonier that Hispanics are turning out at super-presidential levels.

As always at this point in the process, there's time for things to change. Just another three or four days will tell us more.

One thing I find interesting in it is who people trust on "what is taught in public schools", which I don't think has been polled in a while. Seems like a reversal of the early 2020's moral panic about education.

Source: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-poll-cost-living-concerns-weigh-gop-midterms.amp

Source: https://x.com/polltracker2024/status/2110204367294853171?s=46

In the Texas poll by Marist, Talarico goes from +4 with RV to +2 with LV. Hinojosa goes from being +1 with RV to -4 with LV. There's been some other polls showing a similar pattern (I can't think of them off the top of my head, but I think it was some GCB polls?). Since Democrats have an enthusiasm advantage, it seems counterintuitive that LV screening would help Republicans. Is there a reason for this, past that they probably are weighing older people as more likely to vote?

Key thing to note is that Peggy is now up 3 compared to the last poll by the outlet.