Source: https://insideelections.com/house-report-shorts-oct-15-2026/

This was R+0.5% yesterday (which was trending slowly more R from R+0.3% 2 weeks ago). The blue dot suggests to me it might be even a small fraction in Hamilton's favor.

Unrelated: MN is down from 8% a few days ago.

Edit: Also the odds of 53D seats is higher than it's ever been (15%) & 54D seats is back to only fractionally behind 52D (13.6% vs 13.9% respectively). 52D is still the Deluxe forecast.

Article linked above, but it's behind a paywall.

New Mexico's 1st Congressional District includes about 75% of Albuquerque, also including most of Bernalillo County, all of Torrance County, and parts of Sandoval, Santa Fe, and Valencia counties.

NM-01 is 45.5% White, 41% Latino, 4.2% Native American.

Previous NM-01 Election Results:

2018: Haaland 58.1-41.8

2022: Stansbury 55.7-45.2

2024: Harris 52-46 | Heinrich 55-45 | Stansbury 56.3-43.6

---------------

New Mexico's 3rd Congressional Districts spans all of northern New Mexico and loops across the eastern part of the state. It includes the state capital Santa Fe. It also has a significant Native American population

NM-03 is 42.4% Hispanic, 34.5% White, 17.6% Native American

Previous NM-03 Election Results

2018: Lujan 63.4-31.2

2022: Leger Fernandez 58.2-41.8

2024: Harris 52-46 | Heinrich 55-45 | Leger Fernandez 56.3-43.7

What races in the House are you going to be looking at that, more earlier in the night (before 9pm) will tell us the tale of what's going on? Interested to hear in what I should be looking for early on.

And of course, I gave three scenarios, but I guess I should also put purple splash in case Dems have a surprisingly underwhelming night.

This poll used Cook Political Report’s House ratings