Rob Sands odds of winning are extremely high. Even his polymarket is now reaching above 90%. We are also seeing Tureks polls improving since the debate. In the past we have definetly seen the success of some candidates trickle down the ballot to fellow party members. With Rob Sand seemingly having such a high advantage over his opponent, I believe the trickle down effect will do enough to put Tureks tight race over the line for him.

I’m here via [r/Friendsofthepod](r/Friendsofthepod) as I am an avid CROOKED FOTP from pretty much day one lol. What are a few things I should know about 538 fam, project, gossip, etc as I start this journey?

I knew of 538 and everyone, but I didn’t know them and want a Sparknotes type catch up if y’all would be so kind.

Federal investigators reportedly seized Ilhan Omar’s phone during a search of her home as part of an investigation into potential immigration fraud. The Wall Street Journal also reports that the administration is trying to build a case to strip her citizenship and potentially deport her. Omar denies wrongdoing and says the investigation is politically motivated.

Article: https://www.themirror.com/news/politics/feds-seize-ilhan-omars-cellphone-2070363

How do people think this could affect Minnesota’s upcoming elections beyond Omar’s own district?

Could the investigation hurt Democrats by generating negative coverage and putting immigration back in the spotlight? Or could the effort to denaturalize and potentially deport a sitting congresswoman motivate Democratic voters and create a backlash against Republicans?

I’m particularly curious whether the reaction would differ between Minneapolis, the suburbs, and rural Minnesota… and whether it could influence competitive congressional races or statewide contests.

Would this meaningfully change turnout or persuadable voters’ choices, or mostly reinforce how people already planned to vote?

In the Texas poll by Marist, Talarico goes from +4 with RV to +2 with LV. Hinojosa goes from being +1 with RV to -4 with LV. There's been some other polls showing a similar pattern (I can't think of them off the top of my head, but I think it was some GCB polls?). Since Democrats have an enthusiasm advantage, it seems counterintuitive that LV screening would help Republicans. Is there a reason for this, past that they probably are weighing older people as more likely to vote?

Georgia doesn't have partisan voter registration, which makes early-vote numbers there less informative than in some other states. However, it does track the race of registered voters. Also, most unusually, it tracks whether voters are Hispanic.

Michael McDonald has been following the numbers as they come in. I hope he won't mind if I share a few of the highlights from behind his paywall.

To start with overall turnout: It's at a strong level for a midterm, but not extraordinary. The comparative numbers are as follows. Each percentage is the percent of registered voters who cast a ballot by the end of the first day, including both mail-in and in-person ballots.

2022: 1.93%

2024: 4.18%

2026: 2.42%

The pattern is similar among Black voters specifically:

2022: 2.53%

2024: 4.21%

2026: 2.89%

It's with Hispanics that things get interesting. First of all, there has been a surge in Hispanics registering to vote. The number of Hispanic RVs went up 12.6% since 2024, while the total number of RVs actually went down by 0.1%. Meanwhile, here are the Hispanic first-day turnout numbers:

2022: 0.69%

2024: 1.83%

2026: 1.07%

What stands out is that Hispanics had a relative dropoff from 2024 very similar to dropoff seen in the state as a whole. However, their turnout was exceptionally strong relative to what was seen in 2022. (The other thing that stands out is the persistent low absolute turnout by Hispanics, which unfortunately is a long-term issue.)

Looking at matters from another perspective, here is the percentage of first-day ballots cast by Hispanic RVs.

2022: 1.4%

2024: 2.0%

2026: 2.3%

All in all, it's fair to say Hispanic turnout has surged. Based on Georgia's first day, however, the surge is smaller than some have claimed. In particular, I think we should be skeptical of the claim by Tom Bonier that Hispanics are turning out at super-presidential levels.

As always at this point in the process, there's time for things to change. Just another three or four days will tell us more.

I'm a data engineer and have been building this site for a long time, and it's got real-time news analysis. I added a 2026 midterms tracker for PressAudit that brings together House, Senate, and governor forecasts, polling averages, prediction markets (Polymarket and Kalshi), and race-by-race comparisons. It tracks what changed last 7d, includes interactive election maps, and connects the forecasts to news coverage. The idea is to make it easier to compare different forecasts and understand what's changing without jumping between a dozen sites. It's free, I built it because I want you to use it, and I'd be interested in feedback from people who follow election forecasting closely! https://pressaudit.org/midterms-2026

It also has my own composite election model using polls and predictions.

The best feature (to me, a news perv) is the media analysis scroll down check out the Midterms Coverage Heatmap to see which coverage is polarized and not, it is updated by the hour every hour

-Paul

What races in the House are you going to be looking at that, more earlier in the night (before 9pm) will tell us the tale of what's going on? Interested to hear in what I should be looking for early on.

And of course, I gave three scenarios, but I guess I should also put purple splash in case Dems have a surprisingly underwhelming night.

lol

Obviously Shapiro is an extremely strong candidate at the top of the ticket in PA and dissatisfaction with Trump remains at record highs. Would you say it's unlikely? Likely? Foregone conclusion?

This was R+0.5% yesterday (which was trending slowly more R from R+0.3% 2 weeks ago). The blue dot suggests to me it might be even a small fraction in Hamilton's favor.

Unrelated: MN is down from 8% a few days ago.

Edit: Also the odds of 53D seats is higher than it's ever been (15%) & 54D seats is back to only fractionally behind 52D (13.6% vs 13.9% respectively). 52D is still the Deluxe forecast.