As the season begins and drafts are beginning to heat up, what do you guys think is the best place to draft?

I personally am in a 14 man league (points), so what is the best option here(if any?)

Do you guys notice different tiers, or a certain overall pick after which players drop off?

Any insightss welcomee

As we all know, he’s elite when he plays: 7th in healthy-fppg. That’s roughly where ADP has him. Problem is, I model him to play 74% of weeks.

A typical top-50 player plays 85% of weeks per season. Last season Giannis played 56%: an adductor strain, two right calf strains, and a knee bone bruise for the final 15 games.

Stars who come off an injury-riddled season like that (N=15) average 69% in the following season. Roughly half of the 15 bounced back (85%+), the other half averaged 40%.

My rankings are very sensitive to availability. Moving his availability up 2% moves him from 22 to 14th.

But availability risk is especially brutal because of the playoffs. A week missed here or there in the regular season is ok; miss a playoff week and you risk your entire season. This is how 1st seeds get derailed!

If you think some of the injuries were fake for negotiating leverage (I don’t, but could be convinced), then bump him higher. But still not high enough to justify 1st round. Giannis actually seemed eager to play the last 15 games of the season that he missed, but the front office benched him—“injury management” (yes, but also tanking). Adding those games back in, the model ranks him 13th. Which is still after ADP.

The other big factor is minutes. His minutes are on the decline: 35, then 34, then 30 over the last three seasons. I project 28. So lower fppg when he is healthy is expected.

Regarding the scenery change to Miami: stars who change teams usually take a hit. Since 1996, they’ve scored 2 fewer fppg vs stars who stayed put (using Sleeper standard scoring settings, where elite fppg is ~25).

Stars who joined another top-30 star lose 3 fppg (Bam was 16th in fppg last season). Stars who move to a team with no incumbent star, lose less than 1. Take the Heatles: LeBron -4 fppg, Bosh -5, and Wade -1 from their prior seasons (the incumbent star usually doesn't change).

To conclude this essay, let other managers gamble on his availability and take equivalent value elsewhere. At 7th, that price assumes he’s in the top half of injury bounce backs and the other half isn't priced in.

Thanks to u/Matt_D_Z and u/SlightlyGayForReus for having me look into it.

Our league is trying to change from continuous FAB to regular FAB to where you have only certain days with waivers and still be able to pickup guys after waiver period and play them same night. But I went in and looks like it’s not there anymore? Did they update the settings again?

Can someone please help?

Hey everyone, I wanted to share punt guides I've constructed:

Punt assists - https://fantasygoats.guru/guides/punt-assists

Punt blocks - https://fantasygoats.guru/guides/punt-blocks

Hopefully you find it useful

I want something based on one or more of my players or the fact that I’m in Philly. I’m getting married this year, so I’m also thinking about incorporating fiancee or getting married. Anything funny/punny/girly is appreciated!

I have Cade Cunningham, Jamal Murray, Devin Booker, Jalen Duren, Demi Avdija, Cameron Boozer, Ryan Rollins, Jarrett Allen, Paul George, Jabari Smith, Jalen Suggs, Nic Claxton, Collin Gillespie

Ideas so far are: Getting Murray’d, The Bride-Cade, and Books & Booze (my two fave leisure activities lmao), Put A (Championship) Ring On It

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I want to first preface by saying I think Dylan Harper will be a great player and great fantasy player one day, but that will come 3 years from now. I don't understand why people are paying a top 70-80 pick for a guy who doesn't stand out in any category. He's a very good defender, but it doesn't result into high stock numbers. He doesn't generate a lot of steals. He's a mid playmaker. When his minutes and role increased in the playoffs he only averaged 2.7 assists. That's not good. He's below average in 3's. What am I actually getting with him? His strength is that he is really efficient for a guard. His 51% FG% is nice, but it's low volume. And he's a pretty good rebounder for a guard, but right now all of that is just very mid. I would like him much better if his priced in the 90's, but a couple big playoff games and now his price is inflated. I think managers are going to be disappointed.

I'm playing in an auction draft and planning to punt blocks. Do you think it makes sense to spend a little extra (if necessary) on players whose value increases significantly in punt block rankings? For example, targeting guys like Sabonis, Quickley, Pritchard, Fox, Randle, and John Collins, and being willing to pay a few extra dollars if necessary to get them. What do you guys think?

Hey, just curious,, how relevant are the bench players during pre season? Based on your exp over the years, did you have some hunch or at least an idea that this player might get sure PT besides the starting 5? Or just wait for the season to start? And do you even add some players during the pre-season? Thanks.

How are people evaluating both of these players. Looking at projected stats, they have almost identical stats. However Kessler ADP is around 45 while Gobert is 62

Is the difference here mainly due to Luka and projecting Kessler to take a jump? Gobert is also healthier so that should benefit him. Looking at projections the only real difference is blocks, but is that worth almost 1.5 rounds of value in a draft?

Guys like Duren/Clingan are also in the same area so feel free to discuss them as well.

Based on value, who would you rather have in a draft?

Jovic/Jokic

Last night my league had their auction draft and the manager with the first selection nominated Nikola Jovic to be bid on first...

Clearly everyone was expecting Nikola Jokic there, as half of the managers didn't pay close attention & immediately started bidding quickly, driving his price up. It ultimately seemed like the managers caught on later as the bidding stopped short of what past Jokic bids went for, but not before it reached $80 (out of the $200 you get to buy players).

So now we have a manager in our league with Nikola Jovic at $80!!! While "unfair" in some opinions, it's within the rules and it worked!

What do you think - was this dirty af, or diabolically clever?!

Kawhi, Dame, Kyrie, Trae, Hali, Tatum?

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My ESPN league scoring doesn’t seem to make sense. Maybe I’m stupid it’s our first year with ESPN. It’s 2 points for every FGM and -1 for every FGA. If a player shoots 50% from the field they net zero points right. Let’s say they go 10 for 20 shots 10*2 =20 20 points for FGM and the subtract 20 for FGA…. It’s the same for free throws. If the player misses one Free Throw they are negative scoring.

For example Cade last night.
14/2/9

5/11 FGM for -1 points. Plus 2 for 2 3pm Netting 1 point
2 rebounds for 2 points
9 assists for 18 points
2/2 FTM for 0
1 steal for 4
5 TOs for -10

NET SCORE 15 fantasy points. I get it was a preseason game

ANT would’ve been even worse at 2 net points right? 20/0/3/2/0. 1 3pm. 5/5 FTM.

Like I understand it was a bad game for both but those are terrible scores coming from sleeper.

Would this not make players like Mitchell Robinson borderline unplayable?

EDIT: Counts points made already too. Thanks for the clarification

I got the 5th pick this year and put real prep into a punt-3PM build. The person with pick 1 was on holiday and missed the draft entirely, so I had a hopeful assumption that he wasn't going to be particularly good.

He was completely fine. Having Jokic gives him the most categories above average of any team in the league. He projects at about my level with zero effort.

In most leagues the first pick is a huge edge, like in my league if someone who was trying got the first pick its safe to assume he would easily be the favorite to win. It makes me wonder about third round reversal and whether that's actually a good way to counter it, or if it just screws more people over?

(For those who don't know, third round reversal is that round 3 runs the same direction as round 2, so the pick-1 owner gets a later pick in round 3 and the pick-10 owner gets an earlier one).

Would be keen to hear from people who have tried third round reversal, was it a flop or did it work well?

Projections here if you want to see how it shook out: fantasyblacksmith.com/league-analyzer?shared=bixyrix3l3,

What are some good team names? Puns, funny, dark humour. Names for Tatum, Sengun, Paolo etc.

Is it me or has the market cooled off on him? Seems like he's going in the mid 4th round. I think that's pretty good value for player that can give you elite blocks with good 3's and scoring. He's like the last shot blocking big that goes off the board in that range with Kessler and Clingan who go ahead of him.

I don't understand why Kessler has a more premium price when JJJ is more established. Is this just a Laker tax?

Draft season is wrapping up and I'm looking at my roster trying to figure out how to approach week 1. Even with all the cool websites out there for managing my team, there are still some things that feel unnecessarily tedious. For fantasy managers in competitive 9-cat or points leagues (other leagues okay too): what is the most annoying part of your weekly routine as a fantasy bball manager that the current tools you use don't make easy? What part of the routine is the biggest time waster that you also wish you had a simple solution to?

I've heard a lot about punting but have never had the courage to do it. And wonder if its actually a good strategy. I used the simulation engine from ENFUEGO to run a Monte Carlo simulation for 1,000 12-team 9-cat H2H snake drafts and full 20-week seasons (plus 6-team playoffs) for 11 different punt strategies. To keep it fair, the test team rotated evenly through all 12 draft slots against 11 normal ADP/value drafters, took best player available in Round 1, and then committed to its build from Round 2 onward.

A few of these lined up with what I expected, and a couple completely surprised me (especially Punt AST on top).

What do you guys make of these numbers? Why do you think Punt TO and Punt 3PM tanked so hard here compared to Punt AST or Punt REB?

It’s actually impressive how bad it is. Did my first draft on yahoo this season, then went to see my team and the desire to play significantly dropped down and I really like my team. Horrendous stuff fellas.

It's pretty widely predicted that guys like AD and Embiid will miss significant time this season (because they always do). Who is stepping into the starting lineup on those teams? And how much does that boost the value of those guys? A few names I have in mind are Adem Bona (Embiid), Ayton or maybe Coulibaly? (AD), CMB/Ja'Kobe Walter (Kawhi), Ajay Mitchell (JDub), DeRozan (Nuggets whole team), and Bobby Portis (Giannis).

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Just updated the app like a few mins ago and now all the player pictures (usually you can toggle left/right to show player picture or not) on the ”my team” page on the app are gone?

Anyone else running into this problem or is my app glitching?