Ukraine resumes strikes on Russian refineries as Starlink disruptions raise new concerns 🇺🇦
Hey everyone! 👋 We're EUobserver, and we're continuing to follow what's happening in Ukraine.
After Russia continued attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure, Zelensky announced that Ukraine would resume strikes on Russian oil refineries.
Meanwhile, disruptions to Starlink and Starshield have affected Ukrainian drone operations, raising serious questions about how dependent Ukraine's defence remains on outside support.
Behind these military developments are soldiers trying to defend their country and families living with the daily uncertainty of air raids, power cuts and another approaching winter.
How are people in Ukraine feeling about these latest developments, particularly the uncertainty around US support?
We're following the situation closely and would be interested in hearing perspectives here in the comments.
“Do not mistake the Ukrainian desire for peace for a willingness to surrender. The Ukrainian spirit cannot and will not be broken,” former President Viktor Yushchenko writes in an open letter to U.S. President Donald Trump.
Apologies for the lack of an update last week, a very annoying glitch made it impossible for me to post here. The sub requires post flair but then said that I couldn't select my own flair. So, I couldn't post anything. It also didn't save a draft even though I did click to save one, and all my work was lost. Unfortunately, it seems like a recurring problem which may lead me to move away from this subreddit since there seems to be nothing the mods can do about it.
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This video shows a Ukrainian civilian in Kyiv narrowly survive a Russian terror bombing attack last week. This is what people in Kyiv have to deal with every day.
Maps:
Kupiansk last week:
Kupiansk this week:
No changes.
Lyman last week:
Lyman this week:
Ukrainian forces made significant progress against Russian infiltration attempts directly east of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. We can also see that the Russian pincer north of Lyman was completely destroyed. ISW put out a detailed written analysis saying that the Russian campaign to seize the rest of Donetsk by the end of the year has been decisively defeated, and I agree with them.
Kostiantynivka last week:
Kostiantynivka this week:
Russian troops made a push through the liberated territory east of Dobropilia, though I suspect that by next week this will likely have been defeated. Ukraine also liberated some small chunks of territory in the north and west of Kostiantynivka.
Ivanivka last week:
Ivanivka this week:
Ukraine pushed a bit further towards Velyka Novosilka.
Zaporizhzhia last week:
Zaporizhzhia this week:
Russian forces very slightly expanded the grey zone west of Preobrazhenka.
Events this week:
At the direction of Trump, the Pentagon used its authority over the Starshield Program (the military version of Starlink) to dramatically slow down the speeds at which it can operate in Ukraine. This is not about internet speeds but rather is an actual physical speed limit, meaning that a drone moving more than a certain speed would lose its internet connection or have it become highly unstable. This was done because Trump accused Ukraine of violating an imaginary ceasefire he came up with on his own, and because he is trying to cozy up to Russia again with this absolutely absurd and patently illegal deal to buy Russian diesel fuel. The end result is that many Ukrainian short and medium range drone strike missions in the past two days failed or were called off due to an inability to control the drones. Ukrainian officials immediately began pleading with the US to restore this critical capability. Elected officials from both parties signed on to a letter telling Trump the diesel deal was illegal under the 2022 Russian sanctions law, which prevents the US from buying Russian products without congressional authorization. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I have no words for the utter craven stupidity of this administration and its Ukraine policy. It's absolutely evil what they are doing.
As of this morning, however, Ukrainian commanders on the ground reported that Starshield capabilities have been restored, at least to the point that they are usable. There are still some reports of disruptions and it's unclear whether the service has been restored to its prior operational level, or simply just enough to make it usable. This is an ongoing story and I expect to have more to say about this next week.
Zelensky said that he had lifted a pause on Ukrainian attacks against Russian refineries that had been put in place for the last three days as a goodwill measure towards Trump. No point in placating him at all if you get the same results either way.
Zelensky also reported a very significant Ukrainian missile attack on a Russian airfield last night. Apparently using the domestically produced Neptune missile, they claimed to have destroyed four Su-34 fighter-bombers and damaged two more. If this is true, it would be the highest number of Su-34 jets destroyed in one attack so far in the war. The Su-34 is a mainstay of Russian forces operating in Ukraine since it is the aircraft that launches glide bombs. It's a large, expensive aircraft, so every individual one damaged or destroyed makes life harder for the Russians.
The Russian terror bombing campaign against Ukrainian civilians continues to escalate with more bombings directly killing civilians and many attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure. A missile strike on October 13th, after Trump declared his fake ceasefire, left 600,000 Ukrainians without power.
The EU disbursed 2.86 billion Euros in aid to Ukraine yesterday, a significant tranche of the 90 billion Euro loan.
Oryx Vehicle Loss Numbers:
Russian losses:
Total Russian vehicle losses: 24,192 (+54)
Russian tank losses: 4,453 (+5)
Russian IFV losses: 6,492 (+5)
Russian SPG losses: 1,060 (+3)
Russian SAM losses: 445 (+4)
Russian Radar losses: 142 (+2)
Russian naval losses: 40 (+0)
Russian aircraft losses: 200 (+4)
Russian helicopter losses: 185 (+2)
Ukrainian losses:
Total Ukrainian vehicle losses: 12,259 (+84)
Ukrainian tank losses: 1,471 (+5)
Ukrainian IFV losses: 1,625 (+6)
Ukrainian IMV losses: 2,178 (+20)
Ukrainian SPG losses: 985 (+16)
Ukrainian SAM losses: 179 (+0)
Ukrainian aircraft losses: 122 (+1)
That Russian aircraft loss number does not include today's bombing, which makes it even more notable, usually Russia does not lose any aircraft on average. Ukraine took very high SPG losses, which has been a recurring trend, but otherwise had very average loss numbers.
Claimed Russian casualties by Ukrainian MOD this week: 11,450 (another week of horrendous casualties for the Russians, last week they took their highest total ever in one week, almost 12,000 casualties, and this is the third week in a row they've been over 11,000).
Estimated Ukrainian civilians killed by Russian terror bombing this week: 111 (+1 since last week, two weeks in a row of over 100 civilians murdered shows how Russia is stepping up its terror bombing campaign).
As always, thank you for reading and for supporting Ukraine!
This time, we set up in a small village where around 250 people were expected, mostly children. There were all sorts of activities and entertainers, and the local community was incredibly enthusiastic.
But before the first fries could go into the fryer, a special welcome was in store for us. The mayor called us forward and, following an old Ukrainian tradition, we were offered a special apple bread with salt as a sign of hospitality. A clergyman blessed both us and our food truck, and we even received a little gift. Then we could finally get cooking.
And it didn’t stop at the expected 250 people: another 50 to 60 children turned up! Luckily, we had brought plenty, so everyone could enjoy a portion of fries with a snack.
It was a joy to see all those excited children and friendly faces and to enjoy the cheerful atmosphere. And with that blessing, the fries were bound to turn out just right!
On the morning of October 15 in Kyiv’s Pecherskyi district, the warhead of a downed Russian jet-powered Shahed drone detonated between apartment buildings, right next to a playground. This is not the front line. This is Kyiv. And an ordinary morning for a Ukrainian family.
New high-resolution satellite imagery shows the aftermath of Ukraine’s Neptune missile strike on Borisoglebsk airbase in Russia’s Voronezh region.
The wreckage of two destroyed Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers is clearly visible.
Two additional aircraft parking bays in the middle show extensive burn damage, but the wreckage appears to have already been partially cleared by Russian personnel, with debris pushed into piles.
According to Zelensky, four Su-34s were destroyed and two more damaged in the strike.
"I heard a phantom of Childhood's death cry. I dug it from the ground, to save it from being buried alive. I wanted to give it comfort. I was overtaken by its warmth."
They survive the most destructive circumstances. Their journeys are often unimaginable. You stumble upon them in places where you know there's a story and epic that you can't hear. You see them where I should never have seen a toy. They are quiet witnesses, bearing so much on the shoulders of what their owners, children, should never ever Ever experience. A toy can save a child from a horror, even if just for a brief moment. And not only a child. When you hold one in your hands, their innocence rubs in. And it gives you comfort.
Yet I find them alone often. Abandoned and spent. I find them burned and torn apart, like victims of russian crimes against Humanity, often in such a way that it gives you shivers, because you know, from experience, that that could have been a human, looking like that. Maybe there was a human like that, and now there's only a toy left. Maybe there was a little human. Like that.
I took a photo once, of a doll next to a destroyed toy stall in Bakhmut. Facebook algorithms repeatedly marked it as a photo "depicting gore and violence and extreme imagery."
Yes. That's what war toys depict. After a certain threshold, even toys lose their innocence. And the only thing that rubs in, is their PTSD.
The operation took place overnight on October 15, targeting military aircraft stationed deep inside Russian territory. Ukraine’s Navy has reported a precision strike against Russia’s Borisoglebsk military airfield in the Voronezh region, claiming that six Russian Su-34M fighter-bombers were destroyed.
I’m an 28M American English speaker looking to visit Lviv from 22 - 25 October. I’ve been doing a lot of solo travel this past year, but thought it might be fun to see if anyone local would like to spend the day, hang out, potentially do some sight seeing.
