Right there with you. Double checked my registration and will be getting my Talafreak on with the realization that far too much of this state is in a cult.
Expectation needs to be low enough that you know your vote is needed, but not so low that you don't vote at because it's hopeless. Keep fighting the good fight with cautious optomism.
Me, I’m not voting out of optimism, but the equivalent of defiantly throwing rocks at the current Texas leadership, minus the risk of having my head blown off by a dozen cops for actually throwing rocks.
I’m in a county that has not had so much as a non-red dog catcher since before I was born, and went like 80%+ Trump last time he was on the ballot. And I’ve seen glimpses of enough emails and mailers to suggest Ken Paxton is -thoroughly- abusing scare and intimidation tactics to pressure his base to the polls (and the voter base out here skews old enough to fall for it).
But, the vote is the right thing to do even if I believe it is hopeless. I would be pleasantly surprised to be wrong though.
I feel like I’ve been hearing about the potential for a Democrat winning a senate seat in Texas for at least a decade. Which I’m still hoping for. I’m from Ohio so I’ve seen my state shift from a purple state to a red state. I’d love to see a red state become a purple one.
I feel like in the current climate, it just isn’t going to happen. I’ll be hopeful, but realistic. When a state becomes red, the people in power do everything they can to suppress voter turnout to ensure it stays red forever.
Early 90s, it's farther from democratic voting than California is to voting republican, California does actually get some people who are Republicans in office.
That is definitely not the case anymore. Even in a GOP wave year like 2024, California was more lopsided for Democrats than Texas was for Republicans.
The last time a Republican won California was in 2003 and it was only because it was Arnold freaking Schwarzenegger. Plus the Democratic incumbent Gray Davis got recalled due to being so unpopular.
Since then, it has been D+15 at a minimum in every election.
It was also a recall election that ousted Gray Davis (D) and voters chose Arnold. I was a teenager at the time, so I didn’t have a pulse on what politics were on a state level. I’m sure someone can chime in.
Mainly because California has actually made efforts to draw districts in a fair way to represent areas (the recent democratically voted upon proposition for partisan gerrymandering notwithstanding). Most strongly Republican areas in California have been 1) well-to-do pockets in densely populated areas, or 2) counties of isolated farmland/sparse population
This doesn't man anything, but I only know one Texan Republican in real life (everyone else I know in Texas is a liberal expat from Seattle who lives in Austin lol). But, one guy I went to high school with moved to the state because IDAHO WAS TOO LIBERAL and has gleefully voted for every horrible Republican (+Trump thrice!) ever since. He is voting for Talarico. I was completely shocked to my core, if Paxton has lost this fuckin' guy I hope that the situation with the candidates this year must be real, REAL dire.
The issue is right leaning folks/republicans voting party line no matter what on single issues. I am hopeful, I remember the Ann Richards days before GW but too many political shenanigans are at play. Ugh, also just saw this post https://www.reddit.com/r/WhitePeopleTwitter/s/RtH3hnaiUh l
I cannot recall any polls showing Harris ahead in 2024. Cruz in 2024 and 2018 had 1 or 2 polls showing him trailing the Democrat.
Talarico is ahead in like 80% of polls this cycle, and even the most R-"friendly" pollsters are having trouble finding Paxton a 1 point lead.
It is absolutely rational to have doubts. The polling indicates a weighted coin flip in Talarico's favor, but still pretty much a coin flip.
That said, the polling data is fundamentally different this election versus previous. We have gone from "The Dems are only a small polling error from winning" to "The Dems win unless there's a polling error against them".
And FWIW while polls underestimated Reps in 2016, 2020, and to a lesser extent 2024, the polls were excellent in 2018 and 2022.
This is my view as a native Texan and a lifelong and consistent voting Texas Democrat.
Bluntly, i do not expect Talarico to win. The media, reddit and left in general SEVERELY undercount and underestimate the GOP voter. Also independents and moderates break for the GOP at the very last minute. I see Ken winning 2-5 pts, Greg winning 5-8pts.
There is absolutely NO WAY i see Democrats outvoting the MASSIVE rural republican vote. I would have to see Harris county almost double their usual presidential democratic votes which wont happen. Harris county’s democratic numbers are absolutely EMBARRASSING considering how large it is, ditto for both Dallas and Bexar county. Travis county does put out but again gets swallowed by hundreds of rural CONSISTENTLY voting counties.
To continue to beat up on Harris county to put into perspective, Harris county (5 mil) is about 400k smaller than comparable cook county Illinois (5.4 mill). Cook county averages 1.5-1.7 million democratic votes (in presidential elections). Harris county averages high 800k’s to very low 900k’s.
Fucking pathetic…..
If Harris county had numbers similar to Cook county, with Dallas county also getting off their lazy asses, maybe. But based on even primary turnout earlier this year, i do not see a Democratic win at the state level for any office.
I truly hope i am absolutely wrong come election night but i personally do not see it.
I'm hoping there's apathy among the base and motivated voters among moderates and democrats. I'm fearful you're right though, even in an untainted election process.
What you're not accounting for is voting apathy. Every single election in this country is determined by turnout. Right now Republicans are becoming unhappy with Trump and there's a lot of Texas Republicans that backed Cornyn but won't willingly vote for Paxton. On the other hand, Democrats are highly motivated to get out and vote because Paxton is legitimately the worst candidate this state has ever seen.
If voting was compulsory, then yeah, no shot a Democrat wins. But Paxton and Trump are getting more and more Republican voters to stay home every time they open their mouth, every day the war drags on, every time they go to the pump and pay more than they did last week.
You also have the subset of Republican voters that think as you do, that Texas CAN'T go blue. Boomers get out and vote every election, but the gen x, gen z and millennial Republicans have similar levels of voting participation as Democrats do. The boomers can turn a primary, but the Republicans need their base to vote in a general and a lot of them just won't, because they think it's a sure thing either way.
Harris lost every poll to Trump in Texas. The difference between 2024 and 2026 is Republicans are in power in all 3 federal branches and all 3 state branches in Texas, yet things have gotten significantly worse. That’s how Republicans have found themselves in this position in Texas.
Reddit has some sort of collective Mandela effect where they seem to firmly believe Kamala was crushing every poll everywhere, and then her loss was a shock because all the polls were so wrong.
Reality was, Dems were hoping the polls were wrong and that she’d have an overperformance that they weren’t picking up in places like Texas. But they weren’t.
I don’t recall the last time polls had a Dem in front in Texas. I think Beto came close but was always several points behind.
IIRC Harris WAS leading in most of the swing states by two or three points. But what everyone forgot, or hoped was different this time, was that Trump has consistently outperformed the polls by roughly five points every time he was on the ballot. I remembered that and came to terms with Trump 2.0 in July of ‘24.
The Iowa poll at the last minute did some heavy lifting with hopium.
Central Texas is quite in love with Talarico. Hinojosa won’t win, but I have heard nothing but great things in Austin and the suburbs especially for Talarico. He is their Democratic candidate 100%.
One interesting thing there (not that I’m taking a side) is that Harris got the share she was polling it’s just the undecideds broke for trump
In the current polls talarico actually is polling at a majority
That was always the “block” democrats had in tilting southern states like Texas and Georgia, they’d always polls at like 47/48 to the repubs 47/48 but then the last 6% would always break for the republicans
I’m not saying the democrats will win but it is interesting talarico is actually polling at 50%, that means if he gets his vote share polled there is nothing to break
So now the polls are saying the democrats are doing well just before election…again. Which seems to just encourage the republicans to vote. I wish they’d all say republicans are going to win easy. Cause they still might, just like the last couple of times.
In Texas, the polar opposite is true. Good polls help Democrats. Texas has more Democrats than Republicans, but Democrats often stay home because they feel hopeless.
James Talarico is intelligent, well spoken, and has a deep religious conviction to use power to protect the most vulnerable people in his state. He is the best possible person for that senate seat. So hes gonna lose because it’s Texas.
Oh yeah, they are definitely going to elect that ghoul Paxton. Texas is as dumb a state as I’ve ever seen when it comes to voting. Hell they keep electing Cruz and literally anyone who’s ever had an interaction with him hates his fucking guts.
How many years of failed republican leadership do you need to give someone with your best interests a chance. The thing I’m worried about is democratics win and can’t fix 30years of destructive policies and get votes out in 4 years.
They don't actually care that republican politicians are making things worse. Republicans enable their voters to hate who they want, and they chose a team and are fiercely tribal.
Meanwhile dems can't get heir shit together and play major league, we have a bunch of small AA teams all fighting for the top spot and calling each other out for not being left enough or being too left.
Personally, I don’t think she has our best interest she is just another flavor of elite person who never had a real job in her life. That being said, I already donated to her and might campaign, just to see if turning Texas blue is possible. It’s awesome to just have two parties to chose from…
I think ranked choice would actually help the GOP in Texas. It would allow them to run shadow candidates and screw the Dems. I think the only reason they're not talking about it yet is that it would hurt them in many more states than it might help. But I think if they get hammered enough in statewide races that they'll definitely start talking about it. They used to LOVE straight ticket voting. Until it started to cost them races and they dumped it as soon as they could.
I still am baffled by the 47% supporting Paxton. Dude is not even trying to look like a good, ethical or moral candidate, and 47% of Texas is okay with that. I feel your pain Texans...Kansas has a similar bunch of people that vote directly against their morals and interests.
I think Paxton has dragged Abbott and Dirty Dan down with him. The fact that those two have put zero distance between themselves and Paxton has really hurt them.
If these two can’t win (especially Talarico) this November, it’s time to start moving on from “Texas is going purple” talk. Having Paxton this close is a disgrace
During all those hopefuls the Dems never actually took the lead in the polls Talarico has been leading for months now. Even the prediction markets that lean conservative have his chances for winning about where the had trump this far out from the election.
I can’t believe Talarico and Paxton are as close as they are here. Paxton is a complete fraud, and I feel like he’s shot his own foot in a potential career already with all his lies, and somehow he still has a following? Wild.
Republican numbers will start to rise as Texas starts early voting on Monday. Undecideds/ independents break for the GOP at the 11th hour. They will make every excuse to vote for a republican and every excuse not to vote for a Democrat and call it “conscience”
Voter turnout is CRUCIAL. Bad actors China and Russia will meddle on social media to sow any dissent they can (easier to do towards the left all they have to do is mention Gaza or genocide or racism and a leftest circular firing squad is guaranteed culminating in leftist protesting and not voting). Republicans however are not at all deterred and bad actors know this.
I want to believe but I don’t. Democrats always over perform in polls. This shit happens every election. If there isn’t a 10 point Dem lead, don’t count on it
ESPECIALLY in a state as corrupt as Texas where the GOP holds all the levers of power. Dems need at least a 10 point lead in order to win by 1 point once the Republicans are done with all their usual ratfuckery and election fraud.
If it’s not a tidal wave that they can’t cheat their way out of then we’re going to lose. Nailbiters will find a way to find those extra votes Trump was looking for in Georgia. Things are far worse now than they were in 2020.
We didn't cross it with the 2016 national election shenanigans that Russia and Cambridge Analytica did, we just ignored it and moved back to paper ballots.
I wish polls would stop being posted. Don't trust them, act as if your vote specifically counts towards the win, and make every effort to cast it. I feel like these things can make people complacent, and think it's in the bag already.
We only win, when those votes are counted, and we hear their names announced. Until then, it's safer to assume these elections will be rigged, and efforts will be made to deceive voters.
I know it’s Texas, I know conservatives consistently vote R just like liberals consistently vote D, but the fact that someone like Paxton is polling at 47% (without knowing the MOE), is insane.
Polls mean nothing. Texans are not going to embrace an outright Democrat any time soon. I wish they would but I think the best we can hope for is a sleeper Republican to win and just act like a sensible human being democrat.
I'd love to think so. I got my hopes up with Beto and learned not to trust polls or perceived momentum . I hope I'm wrong though. I'll be voting anyway.
Until it actually happens I don't believe in Texas when everytime it looks like they will do something good they continue to be a conservative stronghold.
These polls are well within the margin of error and so don’t really mean much at all.
I say this as a Texan, to my fellow Texans, get out and vote. Don’t worry about the polls. Go vote. Bring your friends. Walk your streets. Talk to your neighbors.
A woman in the governor’s seat in Texas can only mean good things. The good ole boy club is going to balk big time in Austin, but I think many good things will come from it
I don’t ever waste energy expecting anything good to happen anymore, but it would be pretty cool if Texas were to elect a democratic governor– if for no other reason than to hear the reactions from my conservative family
Yea but people have to actually be able to vote. Texas doesn't want that to happen. They're working double time to make sure the people they don't want voting can't. And this is before the election, who knows what bullshit they have cooking for afterward.
Just please remember the gerrymandering. And remember how many times they’ve purged voting registrations. Even with dems polling ahead there’s no guarantee they’ll win their seats without massive voter turnout. We desperately need everyone to go vote!
none of these poles matter if people don't vote, people been saying Texas is going to going to turn blue for years. and it never will if people don't vote!
I am so ready for this! Have been constantly checking my voter registration status. I also vote in my local elections not just these major elections. Hopefully we see some change this time around. My family member works where they have voter registration forms and they were in high demand. Don’t know if that is good or not.
Ignore all polls. Go vote what your ethics allow and what you feel will support your entire community. The consequences are yours to own, as are the benefits.
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