All Picks & Method of Victory Predictions tracked from the YouTube Prediction Channels for UFC Edmonton, video out now:
https://youtu.be/BqJKcAXYYFw

How do you see this fight going? What are your best bets for the main event?

Last card (UFC Vegas 122): 1-0 on the bet lane, the calls we rated went 2-1, 9-2 across the whole sheet. Worst was Matheus Camilo at 63%. Jai Herbert won by decision, really fucked my parlays last weekend.

Receipts: the bet lane is 21-0 all-time, +9.9u on 21u staked at closing prices over 21 bets. Including the ones we tell you not to bet, it is 68-27 (72%). The prop lane is down 2.3u on 12u staked The two-leg cross-fight parlays the engine builds are 243-200, +64.3u on 415u staked at the close. Those stats are broke down at https://cagestank.com/record

You can now file yours too: You can file your picks and keep track of your record and prove you knew who was going to win without actually placing a bet. The registry takes picks until Saturday 12:00 PM ET, one tap per fight, sealed until the lock (unless you choose to publish beforehand), provably hashed and timestamped on Bitcoin, graded at the close on the same board as ours, all free: https://cagestank.com/receipts

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow

Steven Koslow has never won a fight past the 1st round. All 6 of his pro wins are round 1 submissions, and 6 of Chad Anheliger's 8 losses came by submission.

The market seemed to factor that in this week: Koslow opened as a +110 underdog at DraftKings and BetMGM and is now around -165, with nothing in the news we found to explain the move.

Our model has Koslow at 65%, the only read on this card strong enough to rate (though not strong enough to bet).

Both are coming back from a long layoff in the cage: Koslow hasn't fought since December 2022, when Cameron Saaiman stopped him in round 3 after Koslow landed 5 takedowns but only 11 significant strikes. Anheliger hasn't fought in nearly 2 years.

Anheliger is 39 and Koslow is 10 years younger with 5" more reach.

Live, watch round one: if Koslow can't finish it on the mat, he has never shown he can win the long way. We think Anheliger is in that age range and recent history where a win is unlikely, regardless, though..

Our lean is Koslow, with the model and market, but doesn't quite clear the bet bar so remains a watch.

Jhonata Diniz vs Tanner Boser

Our model has Diniz at 58%, Market is much firmer at around -250, so Diniz needs to win over 71% of the time to pay.

He's 6'4" with 4" of reach and the straighter power, and Boser almost never wrestles, so on paper this stays standing where Diniz wants it.

The worry is how Diniz loses. Both of his UFC losses came in round 2 after he was controlled on the ground for 7+ minutes, but Boser has landed 0 takedowns in his last 5 UFC fights.

Live, will be watching this to see whether Boser shoots at all. If it stays standing, Diniz won both of his UFC fights that went the distance.

Our lean is Diniz, with the model and market, but not at current price.

Main Card

Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr

Our model has Nallo at 52%, Market has him around -300, so he needs to win 75% of the time to pay. 3" taller with 3" reach reach, and Landwehr is fighting at lightweight for the first time in the UFC after 11 fights at featherweight.

However, Landwehr is 38 and has been stopped in each of his last 3 fights.

Nallo is 37 and has never heard a decision read: all 14 of his wins are finishes, 12 in round 1, and all 4 losses were stoppages.

Landwehr calls this a war of attrition, so watch the first round live. Only 2 of Nallo's 19 pro fights reached a third round, and he lost both.

Our lean is Nallo, with our model, but again probably not at EV.

Kyle Daukaus vs Marc-Andre Barriault

Kyle Daukaus needed 93 seconds of cage time to win his last 2 fights: a 43-second KO of Michel Pereira and a 50-second brabo choke on Gerald Meerschaert (the 8th brabo of his career). Then, Bo Nickal stopped him in round 1 on the White House card in June. His last 3 losses are also all by KO.

Marc-André Barriault has won Fight of the Night in his last 2 bouts and lost both, eating 140 significant strikes from Michal Oleksiejczuk in February without going down. He's 36 and 1-5 in his 6.

Opponents are mirror-esque: Barriault beat Eryk Anders, who knocked out Daukaus, and Daukaus beat Dustin Stoltzfus, who knocked out Barriault.

Our model has Daukaus at 57% and the market has him around -200, which needs 67%. Live betting wise, watch the clinch: Barriault lands 28% of his strikes there, Daukaus 13%.

Our lean is Daukaus, with the model and market.

Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

These two have practically fought the same career. They share six opponents and the results line up: both choked out Jessica Andrade, both beat Miranda Maverick and Kay Hansen on the cards, and both lost to Tracy Cortez and Manon Fiorot. Blanchfield has since avenged Cortez with a rear-naked choke in November, while Fiorot's 74-second stoppage is the only time Jasudavicius has ever been finished.

Blanchfield is 27, 8-1 in the UFC.

Jasudavicius is 37, 6-1 in her last 7 and 3" taller, and she already beat Fatima Kline, Blanchfield's main training partner.

Our model has Blanchfield at 59% and the market has her around -340, which needs 77%, so the price is the real opponent here.

Our lean is Blanchfield, with the model and market, but nowhere near -340. Probably watching this one for live edges in regards to takedowns, Jasudavicius actually lands more of them at 2.59 per 15 minutes to Blanchfield's 1.96.

Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott

Malott (ranked 13th) is a -135 market favorite over the Buckley (ranked 10th), and the reason is how Joaquin Buckley lost his last 2. Kamaru Usman controlled him for almost 13 of 25 minutes, and Sean Brady controlled him for more than 12 of 15, a fight where Buckley landed five significant strikes.

Mike Malott is not the same kind of wrestler, but he has won 4 straight, finished 12 of his 14 wins, and stuffed all seven of Gilbert Burns's takedown attempts on his way to a 3rd round stoppage in April.

Buckley has 15 stoppages by strikes in 21 wins and has gone 5 rounds once. Malott has never fought past 15 minutes, and the one fight that got away from him is the warning: he outlanded Neil Magny 41 to 11 over the first 2 rounds, then got outlanded 46 to 4 in the 3rd and was stopped with 15 seconds left.

Our model has Malott at 57% and the market agrees, and we lean with both. Watch rounds four and five for some possible live edges.

I run cagestank.com and the model, the receipts and every scored card are open there, including the full sheet for this card with all signals and analyses for you to consider: https://cagestank.com/fights/2026-10-17

worth taking a finish?

When fighters have solid takedown defense and low finishing rates, bookies still seem to price finish props way too aggressively just based on hype.

I’ve found that taking "Fight goes to decision" or "Fighter by Dec" at +180 to +250 often covers 80% of the realistic outcome, especially in women's divisions and lighter weight classes where cardio holds up.

What specific prop markets do you guys rely on when the moneyline odds on a favorite are completely unplayable (-250 or worse)?

I've been toying with this for a while, did some tiktok/instagram videos. Then realized I don't post ridiculous parlays with .1% chance of hitting like MattyBetts so it wasn't successful enough so tried a more technical long form video. Would love some feedback! Even if you only stick around the video for a fight or two.

https://youtu.be/YHSA4Apocm8?si=CG2SKosjrYGOiPAk

registered on parimatch about a week ago to test the mma side. markets cover main cards and prelims,interface took a minute but once you learn it the sessions run fine.

anyone running mma there regularly or still testing it out?

Looking for queer and trans people who like to study MMA and would like to break down fights together + try to make some good plays 🏳️‍⚧️💰

What do yall think about this parlay that I put together?

Pavlovich isn't just some low-tier wild brawler. He’s actually a pinpoint striker who places his shots with great vision.

On top of that, he’s been winning his recent fights by leaning into his Greco-Roman wrestling base. You can basically see him as an upgraded version of Jan Blachowicz younger, bigger, longer, and with better grappling.

​Because of Pavlovich's reach advantage, it’s going to take Pereira a really long time to adjust to the distance. Pereira is vulnerable in mid range exchanges and gets hit quite often. In lower weight classes, he ate a few clean shots and barely survived by taking the edge off punches, but he won't be able to tank Pavlovich's power. ​Pavlovich's kick defense isn't bad either.

He knows he can't win a fight at kicking range anyway, so he’ll constantly march into mid-range and force a close quarters fight, mixing up striking and wrestling in the pocket.

Pereira isn't great in jab battles either, and he'll likely lose the jab exchanges. Above all, Pereira looks way too sluggish at heavyweight and struggles against fighters of similar size.

The line should be tilted much more heavily in Pavlovich's favor.

Hello!

I hope we’re all doing well!

(There is no Podcast, or TL;DR this week, explanation after the recap)

PREDICTION STATS

Total Prediction Stats: 2493 - 1428, 226 Perfect | 593 Decision

Prediction Accuracy for 2026: 68.7% (-0.6%)

Lock Record: 40 - 13

UFC FN: Allen v CLD Recap

Prediction Results: 5/12 Correct, 1 Perfect (Godinez)

Parlay: Miss, -1u

Alt Bets: Price via KO hit, the other two missed. +2.8u

Profit/Loss for 2026: -29.2 (No change as the wins cancelled out the losses)

Okay, here’s the thing.

I have hit a bit of a mental slump, I don’t know if it’s the quality of the cards, the outcomes, the pressure of having to get everything right, the overall loss of profit this year, or just the pacing of the events (almost weekly for the entire year) but I have just hit a mental brick wall in which I just want to shut off this whole write up thing for a month and enjoy life a little bit.

But, there’s only 8 events left in the year, I’ll take the losses to the chin, i’ll keep bringing up write ups for you guys otherwise the depression will get a lot worse and ill probably yeet myself off a balcony lmao

So, this week we’re only doing a full breakdown, albeit it comes with a mental breakdown!

This entire card is absolute guttertrash, if you follow my twitter, you have seen me rant all week about it, so that “this card sucks!” attitude is very, very much reflected in the write up, I would apologise for that but I don’t think I need to, I think there’s some understanding in that regard. If not, please yell at me, it might motivate me to do better next time.

Onwards to the write up!

(c) - Champ

(D/DWCS) - Debut/Dana Whites’ Contender Series

FLS - Fight Lose Streak

FWS - Fight Win Streak

NS - No Streak

(#x) - Rank in division

x/3 - Confidence Levels

ITD - Inside the Distance (Finish)

GTD - Goes the Distance (Scorecards)

(LR) - Late Replacement

Prelims

Bantamweight

Soo Young Yoo (+130) (16-4-0, NS) v Cody Chovancek (DWCS) (-150) (9-0-0, 9 FWS)

Yoo is mostly known for his outrageously wild punching power, or at least that’s my typical read on him since he fought in the Road to UFC tournament just like that, but outside of his wild strikes that usually have no set up beforehand because he trusts that he can get the job done on the feet, but if his striking fails him this week (which is could considering he’s facing tough and new competition in Chovancek) I think we’re going to see just a highly offensive series of attacks from Yoo, with a few takedowns mixed in because the longer this fight remains standing, the more time it gives Chovancek to set up his own quite fantastic strikes. So, the wrestling of Yoo is likely to come into play in this fight early, but it won’t be without a whole lot of fierce resistance from the Canadian fighter here who has shown decent takedown defence, so it’s a matter of how quick Yoo can get a grip on Chovancek, not just get the level change, but the grip, followed by the takedown, because whilst I did harp on about how dangerous of a striker Yoo can be, it is his wrestling pressure that usually is most prominent, he likes to throw a low of takedown volume into the mix, and whilst he often may not land it, during this fight I think it may be his most smoothest pathway to success, provided, you know, it actually works and we don’t see Chovancek sprawl and brawl.

Chovancek is coming off a DWCS win in which he finally got the finish in the third round after hurting his opponent numerous times, and normally I don’t rate the current year of DWCS fighters highly because they’re all a marketing tool to show the world that “UFC fighters are the best in the world!” (which is debatable coz DWCS is a god awful thing at times) I suspect we are going to see Chovancek fight as he did previously, by using his fists a whole lot. I don’t see Chovancek engaging with the wrestling too much here unless it’s to counter wrestle or reverse position, but I do think we’ll see a typical approach from Chovancek, heavy hands, a whole lot of confidence with his attacks and just a smart choice of weaponry.

This is mostly guesswork of course, maybe Chovancek will fight terribly, and his performance on DWCS will look like an anomalous blip on the radar, but he is a prospect from the region, he trains out of a decent gym at Niagara Top Team, and I think his slight edge in reach will pay off here if he sticks to the fundamentals early and sets up the bigger strikes with long jabs.

Chovancek via KO R2 - (1/3)

Women’s Bantamweight

Melissa Croden (#13) (-210) (8-3-0, NS) v Chelsea Chandler (#11) (+175) (7-4-0, NS)

This fight doesn’t deserve a breakdown, I highly doubt anyone here wants a breakdown, but thus I must type.

Croden is coming off a, what you could call a fight I suppose, against Darya “don’t punch me in the face I have to take instagram selfies later” Zheleznyakova and for the most part Croden looked like she was winning the fight. With that said, I cannot distinguish what makes Croden good, or what makes her a ranked fighter because she’s far from a great fighter. She can probably be a bit physical at times and since Chandler is allergic to anything physical in the cage, I suppose that’s an advantage to Croden. Croden should be able to wrestle effectively in this fight, I don’t know if Chandler will counter-wrestle, please don’t let me watch Chandler tape, please? I just think that Croden, in her home country, is probably going to want to showcase some aggression, and hopefully some nasty fight ending intent with her strikes because if I have to watch 15 minutes of Chelsea fucking Chandler I may just launch myself off the Sydney Harbour Bridge, and I genuinely don’t want to travel to Sydney.

Chandler is apparently a UFC fighter who has a win over the very wooden Priscila Cachoeira, and that’s a fine win, I don’t care much about that win, and I don’t think it’s something she’s going to easily replicate against someone like Croden who is overall a decent enough fighter to know when a submission is about to be set up. I will acknowledge that Chandler is quite a heavy hitting striker and that could even the playing ground, although if she’s constantly on the back foot I suspect we’re going to see Croden just pull ahead on the scorecards by looking like the busier and more aggressive fighter.

But let’s be honest, this is a fight not many are looking forward to, and boy is this event full of those fights. I got Croden winning, it’s an exceptionally low confidence pick.

Croden via Dec (1/3)

Bantamweight

Chad Anheliger (-130) (13-8-0, NS) v Steven Koslow (+110) (6-1-0, NS)

So, I understand why Anheliger is fighting this weekend, he’s a canadian, he’s his last chance fighting in the UFC in front of a probably big crowd, and it’s probably his last fight on the contract, but I just don’t know how he’s going to win this one outside of a collision on the feet because his only advantage here is his punching power. Anheliger is an experienced fighter, and whilst he has certainly experienced more losses than wins in the UFC, I do think that as a final foray in the cage, he might just go all guns blazing here and hope for a knockout before Koslow does what Koslow does and that’s grapple and hunt for a submission. So, with that said, I don’t know if I trust Anheliger as a favourite, I have a feeling the odds are going to flip (writing this on a monday, a day after the last UFC event), because whilst I understand that Anheliger is likely to throw caution to the wind here, it won’t take long for Koslow to find his groove and get the fight to the ground.

Koslow is coming back to the cage after more than 3 years of being away from it, and that’s a bit of a concern isn’t it? I suppose Koslow could have been active in the BJJ scene, but there is still a reasonable amount of Ring Rust here. I won’t give Koslow a long breakdown here, he is literally, in an extremely basic sense, a BJJ specialist, nothing more, nothing less, good ol’ grappler that belongs in the early UFC events of the 90’s.

I don’t know why so many people are going with Koslow via Sub here (according to Tapology). It’s understandable that it’s a case of “can the BJJ specialist get the sub before the other guy knocks him out” but I genuinely can’t care about this one, this is one classic case of boring match making that the UFC has been doing since the Paramount era, some era huh. Expect an Alt Bet on Anheliger via KO (if the odds are over 4.00).

Koslow via Sub R1 - (1/3)

Women’s Flyweight

Katlyn Cerminara (-230) (18-6-0, 2 FLS) v Mackenzie Stiller (+190) (6-1-0, 3 FWS)

Cerminara (Formerly known as Chookagian, or at least us Uncs know her as Chookagian) has been away for an extremely long time, and in that time she has become a parent which we know can disrupt training for athletes, and Cerminara already wasn’t a world beater, so I have to question whether or not in her time away from the Octagon, she has improved anywhere or kept up to date with her fitness and all that stuff. This is the grey area that we often run into when it comes to female fighters, so many times have they come back from being a parent to fight in a cage and they either look extremely different, or not as good as they once were, and that’s where I’m kind of stuck. Cerminara is typically known for her volume punches with somewhat minimal impact, she likes to literally pitter patter her way to victory and sometimes it works because she’s the one that’s landing strikes. My slight concern here is whether or not she will be looking to do that this weekend against Stiller, because if she is a completely changed fighter than how in the glorious fuck am I supposed to know what she’s going to do?

Stiller is someone who I shouldn’t care about because she shouldn’t be anywhere near the UFC, she lost her fight on TUF, she lost her chance to fight in the UFC, why is she here? Stiller is short in both height and length compared to Cerminara and that makes me lean towards Cerminara all that much more considering that Cerminara does her best work on the feet where she can let her strikes go. With that said, Stiller does have potentially a pathway to victory in grappling or wrestling but frankly I just don’t know if it’s going to be enough! Yes you could argue that Stiller’s background as a Judoka-based fighter or athlete could help her in getting the takedowns and necessary throws, but when Cerminara is that tall of an opponent, it’s not easy to do any of that as she can just post off her feet or balance well.

I got Cerminara winning this one, it’s a sad pick though coz i rarely pick the older fighter to win, but in this case it’s a dreadful fight and i’m kind of filling obligations!

Cerminara via Dec (1/3)

Heavyweight

Javad Mahjoub (D) (-125) (5-0-0, 5 FWS) v Joel Faglier (D) (+105) (6-0-0, 6 FWS)

Do I have to write something about two heavyweight slops? Both fighters are undefeated but for the most part their quality of competition is terrible, Faglier perhaps has the slight edge here due to his wins on Fury FC, but that’s about it. Faglier is also 9 years younger than his opponent so I just cannot give any care about this fight, this fight belongs on a regional promotion, and I understand that the UFC needs to filfull obligations and make cards a certain length but this aint how you do it!

I have to go with Faglier, he’s younger, had Fury FC experience which is baseline fine, and that’s about it, it’s such a dreadful fight but i’ll be at least a little intrigued. I don’t care how it ends, as long as it does.

Faglier via KO R1 - (1/3)

Middleweight

Julien Leblanc (+425) (10-3-0, NS) v Nick Galanti (-600) (8-1-0, 6 FWS)

Leblanc is once again being fed to the wolves here, and I struggle to see what he can do to win against such a young prospect like Galanti. Leblanc is someone who I called “amateurish” in my last write up and after how he performed against Valentin, I have to say that he is still the same, his striking is kind of okay, but it’s very clunky and just not very snappy, and given that he’s taking on someone like Galanti, I do think we’re going to see a few good attempts from Leblanc early on followed by Galanti returning fire with a magnified amount of power and speed.

Galanti is just some fresh name from the DWCS who blasted through his opponent so whilst the “hype” is there, I will also treat him as a regular DWCS fighter, someone who fought aggressively to get a KO win to appease the baldman, he should be faster and quicker than Leblanc, there’s no doubt about that, but there is still a tremendous amount of stuff to learn about him so i’m keeping this short and sweet.

2/3 confidence here is not a lock, it’s just a near certainty that he’s going to win.

Galanti via KO R1 - (2/3)

Heavyweight

Tanner Boser (+205) (22-11-1, NS) v Jhonata Diniz (-250) (9-2-0, NS)

Boser is simply here because he’s a canadian and it kind of goes to show how utterly trash the talent pool from Canada is. There isn’t a whole lot to say about Tanner here that needs to be said, he’s about as average as one can get at Heavyweight, he can be quick on the feet and does generate that Heavyweight power, but he did get knocked out quite recently against Saricam who is a fairly good boxer so I don’t know if Boser’s chin is quite recovered yet. One major thing he is going to have to figure out is how to get past the reach difference here as Diniz does have a 4 inch reach advantage, so I suspect we might see Boser either crash in and hope for the best with wild aggression, or we are probably going to see a wrestling approach from him, and whilst he certainly isn’t known for his wrestling, it would neutralise the reach disadvantage. Either way, Boser is fighting a slight uphill battle here but maybe that Canadian crowd is going to be behind him and that will encourage him to do some incredible stuff!

Diniz is nothing too impressive, every time he takes a step up in competition against regular level UFC competition like Tybura or Pinto, he gets smashed so I suppose him taking on other lesser known fighters is his destiny! Either way, Diniz is quite an accurate striker, he is known for his varied attacks and given that he has a significant reach advantage I suspect he is going to be intelligent enough to use that advantage to his, well, advantage! Jabs should be a primary focus for him just to blind Boser and keep him at a disadvantageous distance, and once the timing is set up and once Boser starts to forget about what defence is and goes for an all offense attack, I suspect the one-two is going to be there for Diniz and that might be the end of the fight!

There really isn’t anything much else to it if i’m being completely honest, this just feels like an excuse to add another bang average canadian to a genuinely disgusting card. I got Diniz winning this one due to the physical factors, the reach advantage being the main selling point, I suspect that jab is going to be a major key to victory here, although a gee’d up canadian can be about as terrifying as an angry goose!

Diniz via KO R2 - (1/3)

Lightweight

Mandel Nallo (-275) (14-4-0, NS) v Nate Landwehr (+225) (18-8-0, 3 FLS)

Finally we get some interesting fights!

Nallo is coming off a KO loss against Herbert, and there’s no shame in that, he was doing really well early in that fight but then Herbert found his second wind and just ended up being the more durable fighter. Now, Nallo should win this fight if he keeps it clean and technical, that is absolute key here considering that Landwehr, despite being an underdog, is a ferocious puncher. Now, the greatest disservice to Nallo is that he joined the UFC at a very, very old age, so I have to question how far he will take his career and whether or not he’s going to be safe enough to avoid significant, career changing damage. I suspect Nallo is going to try and get Landwehr out of there as soon as possible, but I mean, Nallo is mostly a first round finisher so I suspect we’re going to see him fight as dangerously as he always does, with a huge onset of fatigue after the first round. I do not at all trust Nallo in this fight, I will say it outright that someone is probably getting knocked out and it whilst it probably is Landwehr within the first round, I will give Landwehr a tremendous amount of respect here because he can definitely get the job done here, but I just don’t trust him to get it done because he’s about as hittable as a punching bag after a few drinks with mates.

Landwehr has the UFC experience to get the job done, although I think we’re going to see absolutely no deviation from what Landwehr has done in the past three fights, he is going to walk towards his opponent menacingly, throw with utmost disrespect, and probably get wobbled. This is literally how you have to describe Landwehr each time he fights because he does not change how he fights, he’s basically the Derrick Lewis of the Lightweight division, just a straight up all offense, no chin kind of fighter. Because of this, I will give Landwehr an uncomfortable Alt Bet spot here given that anything can happen when two 37+ year olds are fighting.

I still don’t feel comfortable making a pick here, it’s a pick your poison kind of fight to the most literal degree, Nallo is a first round finisher who has the gas tank of an epileptic horse, whatever the fuck that means, and Landwehr has less braincells than the average MMA fan on Twitter, because boy there are some fascinating people out there, truly, truly fascinating. I am going with my original thoughts, Nallo via KO in the first round, with Landwehr being the Alt Bet.

Nallo via KO R1 - (1/3)

Bantamweight

Louis Jourdain (DWCS) (-185) (9-3-0, 4 FWS) v Timmy Cuamba (+145) (10-4-0, NS)

This is a fascinating one.

Jourdain is I believe the younger brother of Charles Jourdain, and whilst some people might think “hey that’s fantastic!” I warn you that brothers in MMA are sometimes a bad thing! Anyway, with that said, from what I could ascertain, Louis isn’t a terrible fighter, he does come from the Samourai MMA organisation which is god awful, but after that win on DWCS, I have a keen eye on seeing what he can do this weekend against a fairly dangerous boxer in Timmy Cuamba. Jourdain has solid boxing, he has a background in boxing but also has displayed some really good grappling, especially at the end of the DWCS fight in which he locked in a nice little RNC with no locks in, it was savage! Now, for as long as this fight remains standing, things could be a bit back and forth which is why I think a takedown or a grappling approach from Jourdain could create a point scoring gap, giving the judges incentive to score towards the one that’s trying to win and not score points standing, if that makes sense. Jourdain is still someone who is new to me, I do think he can get the job done here, but it’s not going to be a high confidence pick.

Cuamba is coming off a loss against Sopaj and I suppose he lost in a somewhat predictable way in that he succumbed to the takedowns and grappling of Sopaj. During the fight, Cuamba showcased some decent striking, but the biggest problem that Cuamba has is the lack of volume, he is quite a talented striker but he doesn’t throw enough strikes to showcase that talent, so I do think that Cuamba is likely to play “catch up” in terms of numbers in this particular fight. Jourdain is coming off a DWCS fight a year ago, and now he is fighting in front of a home crowd and looking to prove himself, two things make someone pretty damn dangerous, so Cuamba has to let loose his weaponry early and often in order to shut down any momentum being built from Jourdain, because he is going to come out with fierce aggression.

I got Jourdain winning this one, I do think his volume and his ability to wrestle/grapple is going to be the primary pathway to victory here, Cuamba needs to up the ante in order to create a bit of visual disparity to the judges so there’s no favouritism or whatnot.

Jourdain via Sub R2 - (1/3)

Middleweight

Marc-Andre Barriault (+185) (17-11-0, 2 FLS) v Kyle Daukaus (-220) (17-5-0, NS)

Barriault is certainly up there in age and he’s also fighting someone who has a significant edge in reach, speed and versatility. See, Barriault is far from a bad fighter, he is someone who can press down on the gas pedal and throw some serious leather, his wrestling is also quite decent, but the problem that Barriault has always come across is the inability to take punches well, and I want to circle back to Daukaus’ fight against Pereira, I expect to see a similar outcome here where Barriault’s toughness is thrown out the window immediately as it becomes clear that he can’t take a punch well. I do think that if Barriault clinches or makes this a filthy fight, dirty boxing and all that stuff, he does have a pathway to victory, he needs to weaponise his cardio and output in order to win, but if the fight remains at jab/teep distance, it’s Daukaus’ advantage as he has very sharp boxing at range, excellent one-two’s down the pipe and just a measured output of strikes that land at a reasonable clip.

Daukaus is coming off a KO loss against Nickal and there’s no shame in that, it was one of Nickal’s best wins, and it wasn’t at the fault of Daukaus, he fought well until he got clipped. Now, the chances of Daukaus getting clipped in a similar manner is not zero, he can get caught if Barriault lets his hands go, so in order for Daukaus to win, he has to keep the fight at jab length because Daukaus does not have intelligent striking defence, he turns away from punches, he does raise his guard but it’s mostly just a visual thing with no substance behind it. I do think Daukaus has one main pathway to victory here, or at least a path of least resistance here, and that’s his BJJ, he is a fantastic grappler and has the length to give Barriault a tonne of trouble on the ground, but I also think his boxing could be just as useful considering that Barriault’s defence is just having a fair bit of durability.

I think i’m going to side with Daukaus here, I am aware of the threat that Barriault possesses here, but the reach of Daukaus and his ability to snipe at range is going to pay off, oh and that grappling angle too, although I think he might fall in love with his boxing a bit during this particular bout.

Daukaus via KO R2 - (1/3)

Lightweight

Kyle Nelson (+240) (17-7-1, NS) v Cristian Perez (DWCS) (-285) (15-2-0, 2 FWS)

Good lord we’re back to slop!

Nelson is strictly on this card simply because he is Canadian, that’s it. He is pretty much a box that needs to be checked and he is going to fulfill that role as he takes on a DWCS winner who is coming off a vicious KO victory in recent months. Now, what can Nelson do this week to keep Perez away from him? Well, Nelson can certainly make a fight gritty, but lets be completely honest, he is a very forgettable fighter, he feels like a filler fighter in the UFC who is literally only there just to make a card look more full, and in this particular fight, the role fits him suitably here considering that Nelson is being fed to the wolves. I think there might be a few good strikes thrown from Nelson here but at the age of 35 I have to question whether or not he’s going to be able to withstand the youthful athleticism of Perez. So, I can’t give Nelson a good breakdown because it’s not that easy to describe Nelson in a unique way.

Perez on the other hand is coming into this fight with a lot of momentum as he is coming off a big KO win on DWCS just a month ago, and that seems to be the perfect way to deal with Nelson, right? Nelson is someone who tends to want a slower paced, tit for tat kind of fight, whereas Perez is coming off one hell of a win and if he can bring that same energy to this weekends fight, then we’re going to see Perez with his hands raised and Kyle Nelson wondering what year it is.

That’s it, I know the short write up looks disrespectful, but I would rather a short, concise breakdown rather than yap and yap and yap, i’m sure you can agree with that. I got Perez winning this one, I think that much is obvious.

Perez via KO R1 - (1/3)

Co-Main Event

Women’s Flyweight

Erin Blanchfield (#5) (-250) (14-2-0, 2 FWS) v Jasmine Jasudavicius (#7) (+205) (15-4-0, NS)

This one is interesting.

Blanchfield has always been one of my key prospects and contenders for this division, she is one of the best to ever rise to the occasion in previous years and I think we’re going to see why she’s so great. Blanchfield is a solid, well rounded fighter who can adapt on the fly and has the ability to fight well on both the ground and on the feet, however, I have to be a little bit realistic here and address the big concern here. I do think Blanchfield is going to win this one, don’t get me wrong, she should given her athleticism, fight IQ and well roundedness, but there is only so much you can do before the physicality of Jasudavicius kicks in and Jas starts to look like the more dominant fighter. Now, given that Blanchfield is the smaller fighter in this match up, I do think her pathway to victory is going to be point based, she is going to have to use her speed to her advantage, there’s no point in being the smaller fighter if you are also the slower fighter so expect to see quick body work from Blanchfield as she targets the body and legs of Jasudavicius early on in the fight to even the playing field in regards to cardio, and then from the second half onwards we could see Blanchfield land strikes to the head to further accentuate the damage. With that said, in order to utilise speed, you also need Octagon control, that is, centre of the cage control. You cannot have Octagon control if Jas is fighting at her best, and i’m going to explain what she does best in a moment, but I just want to cap this off with how excellent this match up is, and I genuinely hope that this fight plays out how I expect, which is body work early from Blanchfield followed by strikes to the head in the later rounds.

Jas is coming into this fight with a significant win behind her after defeating Karine Silva in a very typical way of hers which is by wrestling with a tonne of pressure and very little else. Now, Jas is, about 80% of the time, a dreadfully boring fighter, she fights as she always does, a lot of pressure, some body triangles to maintain top control or back control, and just a smothering style of wrestling, the boring kind of fighting that we all don’t love and enjoy. Yes there may be some sadistic people out there who are cheering on Jas as she maintains her 8th minute of control time whilst having less than 8 strikes total in that fight, but honestly that’s why I have a genuine dislike for her, but that’s me, someone who is overjoyed by One Championships Muay Thai fights! Now, Jas is fully capable of grinding on Blanchfield for three rounds, I expect her to attempt that during this fight because I don’t know if she can go toe to toe against Blanchfield, it wouldn’t be her strong suit at least. There is a potential for Jas to land a head kick given her height advantage but again, is she going to give up pressure to land a head kick or is she going to use that pressure to push Blanchfield against the fence? I would argue heavily that she would rather do the latter, right? If it aint broke, don’t fix it, all that stuff.

I gotta go with Blanchfield here though, and it’s perhaps an ignorant pick because I really, really want to see how accurate I am with that read of mine, the whole “body strikes early to open up the head strikes later” kind of thing. I will give Jas much, much respect here and make her an Alt Bet via Points, but that’s about all I have for this one.

Blanchfield via Dec (1/3)

Main Event

Welterweight

Joaquin Buckley (#9) (+115) (21-8-0, 2 FLS) v Mike Malott (-135) (14-2-1, 4 FWS)

This one is a rather simple one to break down, so don’t expect a lot of yap.

Buckley is coming into this fight with some hopeful changes to his style because whilst he’s a very, very good striker with great kicks and solid power, he tends to lack absolutely everywhere else, and against someone like Malott who is comfortable taking you down and taking you into deep waters, I suspect that is going to be the largest concern for Buckley. Now, given that takedown defence will be a major factor for Buckley in this fight, I do think that shuts down weapons that Buckley can use to win this fight, mostly the body and head kick because you can’t defend takedowns if your opponent grabs your leg and goes for a sweep, right? Buckley, however, is perhaps the more dangerous striker of the two, he packs a lot more power with his strikes and he has that reckless aggression that could shut the lights out of many fighters. With that said though, this is 5 rounds, and if Malott does utilise a wrestle heavy, offensive gameplan, those are 5 rounds that Buckley will be defending takedowns instead of landing his strikes, so I can’t help but see Buckley land a few good shots before getting taken down for whatever amount of time remains in that round, so really this fight could go a whole myriad of ways. What I do see happening here though is Buckley eating a lot of overhand strikes, and that is only because Malott will probably threaten the takedown quite a lot, which luls Buckley into thinking that every aggressive motion is a motion for a takedown, and then he eats a good ol punch from a Cannuck and he starts seeing stars.

Malott genuinely has only one pathway to victory here though in my opinion and that’s via his wrestling and grappling, I know that I just described his overhand strikes being a major proponent for success, but I think it’s also his most dangerous route to walk, and given that Buckley has the athleticism, speed and power to overwhelm Malott, what better way to avoid all of that than to wrestle and wear out the striker in the early rounds and no longer allow him to have the cardio to throw back anything in the main event rounds? With that said, I am very much someone who doesn’t believe that Malott is someone special, he is just your bang average “good” UFC fighter, and in an era where a good UFC fighter is hard to come by, I can see why Malott stands out. I don’t think we’re going to see him do that well against Buckley on the feet, outside of that overhand strike that I suspect will land, so expect to see a lot of takedown attempts from Malott. I wish I could give Malott more of a description here but I kind of broke him down a little bit in the Buckley part.

At the end of the day, this is a genuinely fascinating match up. I was leaning towards Buckley at the start of the week just from eyeballing the record/stats/TotT, but after doing all the tape, i’m very much down the line here, 50/50! I suppose i’ll pick Buckley to win via KO given that it’s his main pathway to victory, but I will give Malott via Sub/Points an Alt Bet spot here, Sub/Points because he will use a lot of wrestling and if Buckley’s takedown defence hasn’t improved then the sub will be there to be taken!

Buckley via KO R2 - (1/3)

Parlay: Cerminara ML + Galanti via KO R1 or 2 (CR) + Perez ML + Blanchfield/Jas Over 2.5 Rounds

Alt Bets: Anheliger KO, Landwehr KO R1 or 2, Jas via Points, Malott via Sub/Points

Locks: Galanti, I guess?

Dogs: Faglier, Buckley

Twitter: @Slayer_Tip

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Hope you all have an amazing week and enjoy the fights!

i pulled the closing odds on every ufc fight since 2010 that had them, 7,187 fights through last saturday, and checked what $100 on every bet would have done.

cliffs: the favorite side of the line is close to perfect. the dog side is where the book eats. and there are three spots where the line has been off for sixteen years and nobody has fixed it.

**how i did it*\*

closing odds on both fighters, march 2010 through october 2026. draws and no contests are out. every number below is $100 flat on every bet that fits the rule, at the closing price.

when i say the line "said" a fighter was 60%, i mean with the book's juice taken out (the no-vig line). two sides at -110 add up to about 105%, this is the juice the book adds, so you scale them back to 100 and each side is 50. same idea at every price.

**the favorite is priced right*\*

$100 on every favorite since 2010. 7,066 bets. the line said they win 66.9% of the time. they won 66.9% of the time. not rounded. the actual number.

you still finish down $18,089, which is 2.6 cents on every dollar, which is the juice and nothing else.

$100 on every dog, same 7,066 fights from the other side. the dogs won 33.1% also dead on the line. but you'd finish down $57,013. 8.1 cents on the dollar.

not ideal!

same fight, and it costs the dog bettor three times what it costs the favorite bettor.

**where the vig actually lives*\*

the book doesn't spread the juice evenly across the two sides of a fight. it puts it on the ticket you want to buy, and the ticket everybody wants to buy is the big dog.

every dog at +300 or longer since 2010, 1,290 bets. down $37,190. that's 29 cents on every dollar. since 2021 it's 37 cents.

every favorite at -300 or shorter, 1,912 bets. up $2,566. a hair over break even for sixteen years, and nobody brags about it because it's boring.

in dollars. take a dog between +400 and +500. in this sample that dog wins about 15 fights in 100. $100 at the average price in that range, +436, pays $536 when it hits, so the ticket was worth $78.64 the second you bought it. the favorite across from him pays $117.68 on $100 and wins 88 in 100, so that ticket was worth $103.56. you paid the juice plus a tip for the right to dream.

none of this is a secret. people have written about the longshot bias for decades. the size is what got me. about 29 cents on the dollar, on every big dog you have ever bet in this sport.

and it's getting worse. the juice on ufc closing lines was about 2% from 2012 to 2014. it's been about 4.5% the last few years. the books charge mma bettors twice what they did and most of it lands on the dog side.

**the line doesn't fully price age*\*

this is the one i'd actually use. for every fight where both ages are known i looked at the age gap.

the fighter who is 5 or more years younger than his opponent, 2,460 bets. the line said he wins 60 out of 100. he won 63. that holds in 2010 to 2015, in 2016 to 2020 and since 2021, and it holds whether he's the favorite or the dog.

$100 on every one of them and you finish up $6,829. $100 on the older guy in the same fights and you finish down $37,201. same 2,460 fights.

it's roughly a straight line. every year of age gap is worth a bit under one point of win chance that the market isn't giving. the older guy is usually the name you know, which is probably the whole reason.

one fight. the line closes -150 / +130 and the +130 is six years younger. strip the juice and the line gives the dog 42%. the age gap says more like 46%. at +130 you need 43.5% to break even. so you're buying a 46% fighter at a 43.5% price, which is worth about six bucks on a $100 ticket. not a system. a lean worth six bucks a hundred that the market has let sit there for sixteen years.

**the red corner is the promotion telling you who it likes*\*

the ufc puts the a side in the red corner. the champ, the ranked guy, the one they're building. the market mostly agrees, red closes around 56% on average. red wins 58%. small, but it's there in every era.

i wouldn't bet red just for being red. i would stop betting blue corner dogs though.

blue corner dogs since 2010, 4,428 bets, down $57,951.

13 cents on the dollar. since 2021 it's 18 cents. ouch.

red corner dogs, 2,638 bets, up $938.

and the best thing in the whole file. the red favorite who is also 3 or more years younger than the blue dog. 1,420 bets. the line said 71 out of 100, he won 76. up $7,668, which is 5.4 cents on the dollar, and he was up in all three eras. the promotion likes him, he's younger, and the line still only averages about -240 on him.

**the main event dog*\*

main events and title fights are five rounds. everybody who bets one fight a card bets that one, and they bet the name.

favorites in five round fights, 671 bets, down $5,720. 8.5 cents on the dollar, three times what favorites lose on the rest of the card.

the close ones are where it gets interesting. five round dogs between +100 and +250, 450 bets. the line said 37 out of 100. they won 44. up $6,138, which is 13.6 cents on the dollar, and up in all three eras. the fight night main event dog does even better than the title fight dog.

the same prices in three round fights do nothing. 4,554 bets, down 4.3 cents, which is just the juice.

450 bets is 450 bets, so treat it as a lean, not a law. but a 44% hit rate on a 37% line across sixteen years isn't a coin that landed funny.

**what i would not read into*\*

women's dogs lose 12 cents on the dollar, but they won exactly what the line said. that's the big dog tax, not a women's thing. title fight dogs, abu dhabi dogs, brazil, heavyweights, flyweights. i checked all of them and nothing survives once you account for the price.

**the habits*\*

1. the closing favorite is priced right. chalk at -300 or shorter has been roughly break even for sixteen years, which beats most of this forum.

2. big dogs are a tax. if you want the +450 at least know the ticket was worth about $79 per $100 when you bought it. bet it small.

3. look at the ages before the price. a five year gap is worth three or four points the line isn't giving you.

4. don't bet a blue corner dog without a reason. the promotion already told you who it thinks is better.

5. in main events the dog between +100 and +250 has been the best bet on the card for ten years, and the favorite across from him the worst.

6. decide the side first, then shop the number. the gap between the best and worst price on a ufc fight is bigger than everything above put together.

you will not get rich doing any of this. the market is good at pricing the thing everybody looks at, the names. it's a little lazy on the things nobody looks at. the ages, the corner, the headliner dog. that's where the six bucks a hundred is.

tldr; FAVORITES ARE PRICED RIGHT. BIG DOGS COST 29 CENTS ON THE DOLLAR. THE LINE STILL UNDERPRICES THE YOUNGER FIGHTER, THE RED CORNER AND THE MAIN EVENT DOG

learn more at vigged.com/learn/ufc-betting-angles

I didn't think many fighters looked particularly good.

I had one bet and of course it went down at the first, I watched the rest of the event and was underwhelmed.

The level was just really poor and honestly that chick Sundell didn't deserve a contract.

The show has lost its appeal for me, I don't bet it with even the expectations of winning anymore; it's more to help me get through the show.

It's just a lottery really with very little tape, I don't think il bet on it again tbh.

Chama is a fraud