How do you see this fight going? What are your best bets for the main event?

Last card (UFC Vegas 122): 1-0 on the bet lane, the calls we rated went 2-1, 9-2 across the whole sheet. Worst was Matheus Camilo at 63%. Jai Herbert won by decision, really fucked my parlays last weekend.

Receipts: the bet lane is 21-0 all-time, +9.9u on 21u staked at closing prices over 21 bets. Including the ones we tell you not to bet, it is 68-27 (72%). The prop lane is down 2.3u on 12u staked The two-leg cross-fight parlays the engine builds are 243-200, +64.3u on 415u staked at the close. Those stats are broke down at https://cagestank.com/record

You can now file yours too: You can file your picks and keep track of your record and prove you knew who was going to win without actually placing a bet. The registry takes picks until Saturday 12:00 PM ET, one tap per fight, sealed until the lock (unless you choose to publish beforehand), provably hashed and timestamped on Bitcoin, graded at the close on the same board as ours, all free: https://cagestank.com/receipts

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott

Chad Anheliger vs Steven Koslow

Steven Koslow has never won a fight past the 1st round. All 6 of his pro wins are round 1 submissions, and 6 of Chad Anheliger's 8 losses came by submission.

The market seemed to factor that in this week: Koslow opened as a +110 underdog at DraftKings and BetMGM and is now around -165, with nothing in the news we found to explain the move.

Our model has Koslow at 65%, the only read on this card strong enough to rate (though not strong enough to bet).

Both are coming back from a long layoff in the cage: Koslow hasn't fought since December 2022, when Cameron Saaiman stopped him in round 3 after Koslow landed 5 takedowns but only 11 significant strikes. Anheliger hasn't fought in nearly 2 years.

Anheliger is 39 and Koslow is 10 years younger with 5" more reach.

Live, watch round one: if Koslow can't finish it on the mat, he has never shown he can win the long way. We think Anheliger is in that age range and recent history where a win is unlikely, regardless, though..

Our lean is Koslow, with the model and market, but doesn't quite clear the bet bar so remains a watch.

Jhonata Diniz vs Tanner Boser

Our model has Diniz at 58%, Market is much firmer at around -250, so Diniz needs to win over 71% of the time to pay.

He's 6'4" with 4" of reach and the straighter power, and Boser almost never wrestles, so on paper this stays standing where Diniz wants it.

The worry is how Diniz loses. Both of his UFC losses came in round 2 after he was controlled on the ground for 7+ minutes, but Boser has landed 0 takedowns in his last 5 UFC fights.

Live, will be watching this to see whether Boser shoots at all. If it stays standing, Diniz won both of his UFC fights that went the distance.

Our lean is Diniz, with the model and market, but not at current price.

Main Card

Mandel Nallo vs Nate Landwehr

Our model has Nallo at 52%, Market has him around -300, so he needs to win 75% of the time to pay. 3" taller with 3" reach reach, and Landwehr is fighting at lightweight for the first time in the UFC after 11 fights at featherweight.

However, Landwehr is 38 and has been stopped in each of his last 3 fights.

Nallo is 37 and has never heard a decision read: all 14 of his wins are finishes, 12 in round 1, and all 4 losses were stoppages.

Landwehr calls this a war of attrition, so watch the first round live. Only 2 of Nallo's 19 pro fights reached a third round, and he lost both.

Our lean is Nallo, with our model, but again probably not at EV.

Kyle Daukaus vs Marc-Andre Barriault

Kyle Daukaus needed 93 seconds of cage time to win his last 2 fights: a 43-second KO of Michel Pereira and a 50-second brabo choke on Gerald Meerschaert (the 8th brabo of his career). Then, Bo Nickal stopped him in round 1 on the White House card in June. His last 3 losses are also all by KO.

Marc-André Barriault has won Fight of the Night in his last 2 bouts and lost both, eating 140 significant strikes from Michal Oleksiejczuk in February without going down. He's 36 and 1-5 in his 6.

Opponents are mirror-esque: Barriault beat Eryk Anders, who knocked out Daukaus, and Daukaus beat Dustin Stoltzfus, who knocked out Barriault.

Our model has Daukaus at 57% and the market has him around -200, which needs 67%. Live betting wise, watch the clinch: Barriault lands 28% of his strikes there, Daukaus 13%.

Our lean is Daukaus, with the model and market.

Erin Blanchfield vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

These two have practically fought the same career. They share six opponents and the results line up: both choked out Jessica Andrade, both beat Miranda Maverick and Kay Hansen on the cards, and both lost to Tracy Cortez and Manon Fiorot. Blanchfield has since avenged Cortez with a rear-naked choke in November, while Fiorot's 74-second stoppage is the only time Jasudavicius has ever been finished.

Blanchfield is 27, 8-1 in the UFC.

Jasudavicius is 37, 6-1 in her last 7 and 3" taller, and she already beat Fatima Kline, Blanchfield's main training partner.

Our model has Blanchfield at 59% and the market has her around -340, which needs 77%, so the price is the real opponent here.

Our lean is Blanchfield, with the model and market, but nowhere near -340. Probably watching this one for live edges in regards to takedowns, Jasudavicius actually lands more of them at 2.59 per 15 minutes to Blanchfield's 1.96.

Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott

Malott (ranked 13th) is a -135 market favorite over the Buckley (ranked 10th), and the reason is how Joaquin Buckley lost his last 2. Kamaru Usman controlled him for almost 13 of 25 minutes, and Sean Brady controlled him for more than 12 of 15, a fight where Buckley landed five significant strikes.

Mike Malott is not the same kind of wrestler, but he has won 4 straight, finished 12 of his 14 wins, and stuffed all seven of Gilbert Burns's takedown attempts on his way to a 3rd round stoppage in April.

Buckley has 15 stoppages by strikes in 21 wins and has gone 5 rounds once. Malott has never fought past 15 minutes, and the one fight that got away from him is the warning: he outlanded Neil Magny 41 to 11 over the first 2 rounds, then got outlanded 46 to 4 in the 3rd and was stopped with 15 seconds left.

Our model has Malott at 57% and the market agrees, and we lean with both. Watch rounds four and five for some possible live edges.

I run cagestank.com and the model, the receipts and every scored card are open there, including the full sheet for this card with all signals and analyses for you to consider: https://cagestank.com/fights/2026-10-17

When fighters have solid takedown defense and low finishing rates, bookies still seem to price finish props way too aggressively just based on hype.

I’ve found that taking "Fight goes to decision" or "Fighter by Dec" at +180 to +250 often covers 80% of the realistic outcome, especially in women's divisions and lighter weight classes where cardio holds up.

What specific prop markets do you guys rely on when the moneyline odds on a favorite are completely unplayable (-250 or worse)?

All Picks & Method of Victory Predictions tracked from the YouTube Prediction Channels for UFC Edmonton, video out now:
https://youtu.be/BqJKcAXYYFw

I've been toying with this for a while, did some tiktok/instagram videos. Then realized I don't post ridiculous parlays with .1% chance of hitting like MattyBetts so it wasn't successful enough so tried a more technical long form video. Would love some feedback! Even if you only stick around the video for a fight or two.

https://youtu.be/YHSA4Apocm8?si=CG2SKosjrYGOiPAk