r/AlternateHistory • • 1d ago

What-If Wednesdays

3 Upvotes

Welcome to What-If Wednesday, the weekly megathread for scenarios you'd like to talk over but haven't necessarily developed much yet.

Please use this thread instead of posting just a "What-If" question without any lore - those will be removed by the mods. r/HistoryWhatIf is a better option for that kind of post. Thank you!


r/AlternateHistory • • Jan 20 '25

Althist Help How to make an alternate history Wikipedia article: a tutorial

170 Upvotes

An important warning is, Do not save your sandbox! Only press preview changes. As all content in Wikipedia must be related to the encyclopedic effort, wiki admins might delete your sandbox and undo your hard work at any time. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:How_to_vandalize_correctly

I am well-known in the alternate history community for creating the imaginary politician Ed Donnell, who is a meme in r/imaginaryelections, as well as some personal controversies. My routine consists of making at least one alternate history post a day, be it a lore writeup or, more commonly, a fake Wikipedia article for my myriad scenarios, all of whom are originally posted to r/GustavosAltUniverses and a handful of Discord servers, and then complied on this and other subreddits.

But today, I will write a tutorial as to how to make a fictional Wikipedia page for alternate history scenarios. Although I use my phone for all of them, I recommend going on a computer for better quality.

If you create a Wikipedia account on desktop, you will have access to a sandbox allowing you to test editing without commiting vandalism, which is a bannable offense. My trick is to copy the Wikipedia article for the event I want to alter, or the military conflict or country templates in the case of a completely fictional event or subplot. Then, you alter the content of the page as you please; this is the beauty of alternate history.

Illustrations wise, you can retain the article's original image, or change it by copying and pasting ones from articles relevant to your scenario (for instance, a picture of Red Army soldiers for an Operation Unthinkable TL). But it has to be a Wikimedia commons image; otherwise, you'll have to photoshop your screenshot using Inkscape or some other image editing software.

You also have the option to change or add text to your article. I always do this for war scenarios, but not always so for election ones. Make sure to proofread them before screenshoting, in order to avoid potentially confusing typos or grammar mistakes. This is pretty much it.


r/AlternateHistory • • 6h ago

Post 2000s The 2009 Fast Food Human Meat Controversy

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219 Upvotes

r/AlternateHistory • • 2h ago

1900s Into the Lancasterverse: what if every General Election in the United Kingdom went the opposite way?

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56 Upvotes

r/AlternateHistory • • 5h ago

Post 2000s The Day The First World Perished

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96 Upvotes

All people, organizations, and religions are fictional.

"What if, on the 10th anniversary of 9/11, a troubled man became inspired by the attacks and created a terrorist group that devolved into a cult? After YEARS of planning, they attacked four countries, using multiple methods of terrorism in 2026."


r/AlternateHistory • • 7h ago

Pre-1700s What if homo-sapiens started in South America instead of Africa?

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94 Upvotes

Homo-sapiens and their ancestors first emerge from apes in south america (possibly getting there through raft theory, where a raft of broken off dirt, sticks, and other things carried apes to south america, basically this happened a lot earlier and with human ancestors) Everything else such as the bering land bridge still happens, just going the opposite direction.


r/AlternateHistory • • 8h ago

Pre-1700s What if the old Empires never fell? -- Oops, All Chinas! 100 BC to 25 AD

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44 Upvotes

One day I thought, what if every continent's first major empires just never fell? Or at the very least, continued in a manner just like China had... Hence-- All Chinas! A world where the collective memory of an empire kept bringing people back again and again, changing history as we know it.


r/AlternateHistory • • 1h ago

1900s Which republics could potentially have become part of the USSR and their populations

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• Upvotes
  1. EUROPE (excluding East Slavic republics)

1.1. North

1.2. Republics

• Finnish SSR • Area: ~360,000 sq km • Population: 5.9 million • Ethnic Composition: Finns and Karelians — 68%, Russians — 24%, Swedes — 6%, others — 2%. • Latvian SSR • Area: ~50,000 sq km • Population: 1.9 million • Ethnic Composition: Latvians — 76%, Russians — 19%, others — 5%. • Estonian SSR • Area: ~44,000 sq km • Population: 1.1 million • Ethnic Composition: Estonians — 87%, Russians — 10%, others — 3%.

1.1. Center

1.2. Republics

• Polish SSR • Area: ~325,000 sq km • Population: 34,2 million • Ethnic Composition: Poles — 88%, Germans — 5%, Russians and Ukrainians — 5%, others — 2%. • Slovak SSR • Area: ~49,000 sq km • Population: 5.1 million • Ethnic Composition: Slovaks — 82%, Hungarians — 10%, Czechs and Russians — 8%. • Lithuanian SSR • Area: ~65,000 sq km • Population: 3.7 million • Ethnic Composition: Lithuanians — 80%, Poles — 9%, Russians — 8%, others — 3%.

1.1. South

1.2. Republics

• Moldovo-Wallachian SSR • Area: ~172,000 sq km • Population: 13.2 million • Ethnic Composition: Romanians and Moldovans — 86%, Russians and Ukrainians — 7%, Roma — 5%, others — 2%. • Bulgarian SSR • Area: ~145,000 sq km • Population: 11.8 million • Ethnic Composition: Bulgarians — 72%, Turks — 14%, Greeks — 8%, Roma — 4%, others — 2%. • Crimean SSR • Area: ~27,000 sq km • Population: 2.6 million • Ethnic Composition: Russians — 44%, Crimean Tatars — 36%, Ukrainians — 16%, others — 4%.

  1. PROPER EAST SLAVIC REPUBLICS

2.1. Slavic Core

1.2. Republics

• RSFSR (Russian SFSR) • Area: ~14,000,000 sq km • Population: 132.5 million • Ethnic Composition: Russians — 93.5%, Ukrainians and Belarusians — 4.5%, others — 2%. • Ukrainian SSR • Area: ~505,000 sq km • Population: 37.2 million • Ethnic Composition: Ukrainians — 86%, Russians — 10%, Poles and others — 4%. • Byelorussian SSR • Area: ~135,000 sq km • Population: 5.8 million • Ethnic Composition: Belarusians — 82%, Poles — 11%, Russians — 5%, others — 2%.

  1. CAUCASUS AND TRANSCAUCASIA (including Kurdistan and Mazandaran)

3.1. Caucasus

1.2. Republics

• Georgian SSR • Area: ~70,000 sq km • Population: 5.4 million • Ethnic Composition: Georgians — 70%, Armenians — 8%, Abkhazians and Ossetians — 6%, Russians — 6%, others — 10%. • Mountain SSR • Area: ~124,000 sq km • Population: 3.5 million • Ethnic Composition: Peoples of the Caucasus — 85%, Russians — 15%.

3.1. Western Transcaucasia

1.2. Republics

• Kurdish SSR • Area: ~190,000 sq km • Population: 7.5 million • Ethnic Composition: Kurds — 80%, Arabs and Assyrians — 8%, Russians and Armenians — 7%, Turks — 5%. • Armenian SSR • Area: ~85,000 sq km • Population: 7.2 million • Ethnic Composition: Armenians — 88%, Russians — 6%, Kurds — 5%, others — 1%. • Lazistan SSR • Area: ~25,000 sq km • Population: 2.1 million • Ethnic Composition: Lazs and Mingrelians — 60%, Turks — 25%, Russians — 10%, Georgians — 5%.

3.1. Eastern Transcaucasia

1.2. Republics

• Azerbaijan SSR • Area: ~140,000 sq km • Population: 15.2 million • Ethnic Composition: Azerbaijanis — 85%, Russians — 8%, Kurds and Talysh — 5%, Persians — 2%. • Mazandaran SSR • Area: ~45,000 sq km • Population: 12.8 million • Ethnic Composition: Mazanderanis and Gilakis — 52%, Persians — 38%, Russians — 7%, others — 3%.

  1. CENTRAL ASIA

4.1. North

1.2. Republics

• Alash SSR • Area: ~1,980,000 sq km • Population: 14.1 million • Ethnic Composition: Kazakhs and Kyrgyz — 75%, Russians — 15%, Tatars and Karakalpaks — 7%, Uyghurs — 3%. • Tatar-Bashkir SSR • Area: ~230,000 sq km • Population: 12.4 million • Ethnic Composition: Tatars and Bashkirs — 52%, Russians — 33%, Chuvashes and Maris — 12%, Udmurts — 3%.

4.1. Center

1.2. Republics

• Uzbek SSR • Area: ~430,000 sq km • Population: 18.2 million • Ethnic Composition: Uzbeks — 82%, Kazakhs — 8%, Russians — 7%, others — 3%. • Uyghur SSR • Area: ~780,000 sq km • Population: 9.5 million • Ethnic Composition: Uyghurs — 75%, Russians — 12%, Uzbeks and Huis (Dungans) — 13%.

4.1. South

1.2. Republics

• Tajik SSR • Area: ~1,580,000 sq km • Population: 24.5 million • Ethnic Composition: Tajiks and Pamiris — 55%, Hazaras — 16%, Uzbeks — 15%, Russians — 6%, Aimaks — 5%, others — 3%. • Turkmen SSR • Area: ~385,000 sq km • Population: 4.3 million • Ethnic Composition: Turkmens — 84%, Russians — 9%, Uzbeks — 4%, others — 3%.

  1. EAST ASIA + ALASKA

5.1. North

1.2. Republics

• Alaskan SSR • Area: ~1,717,000 sq km • Population: 1.1 million • Ethnic Composition: Russians — 68%, Indigenous peoples of the North — 22%, Anglo-Saxons — 8%, others — 2%. • Yakut SSR • Area: ~2,783,000 sq km • Population: 0.65 million • Ethnic Composition: Yakuts (Sakha) and Evenks — 78%, Russians — 18%, others — 4%.

5.1. Center

1.2. Republics

• Mongolian SSR • Area: ~2,300,000 sq km • Population: 6.8 million • Ethnic Composition: Mongolians of all sub-ethnic groups — 88%, Russians — 9%, Kazakhs — 3%. • Tibetan SSR • Area: ~1,800,000 sq km • Population: 4.2 million • Ethnic Composition: Tibetans — 94%, Mongolians and Huis — 3%, Russians — 3%.

5.1. East

1.2. Republics

• Korean SSR • Area: ~220,000 sq km • Population: 62.0 million • Ethnic Composition: Koreans — 98.5%, Russians — 1.2%, others — 0.3%. • Manchurian SSR • Area: ~1,560,000 sq km • Population: 57.2 million • Ethnic Composition: Manchus and Chinese — 68%, Russians — 16%, Japanese of Hokkaido — 12%, Koreans — 4%.


r/AlternateHistory • • 1d ago

Post 2000s The day Millennials stopped laughing

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2.3k Upvotes

r/AlternateHistory • • 3h ago

1700-1900s Kyrgyz Hawaii

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4 Upvotes

An alternative history: Suppose that in 1771, Kyrgyz people set sail from Okhotsk in search of new territories,

and in 1772 they discovered the Western Islands, and then in the 1770s, viruses began killing the islanders en masse

And Hawaii became a Russian territory in 1781, and between 1791 and 1798, 2,210 Kyrgyz arrived to settle the territory, and the population began to grow from 1791 to 1867, reaching 62,000 people

The Eastern Islands were sold in 1867.

Then the population grew again until 1917

to 130,000 people. Suddenly, a civil war broke out in Russia; the Reds were among the Hawaiians and managed to defeat the Whites. In 1922, Russian Hawaii became part of the USSR, and the population grew to 162,000 by 1941. At that time, American troops were stationed in the Port of Honolulu as a safe zone

And from that point on, the United States defeated Japan

in 1945. Then came the Cold War, and the “Maritime Berlin Wall” emerged, along with naval patrols to intercept refugees. Until 1953, Hawaii was part of the RSFSR; then it became the separate Hawaiian SSR; and then, in 1961 –1967, 80,000 Kyrgyz arrived, and in 1964 the population reached 192,000, and the Hawaiian SSR became part of the Kyrgyz SSR

The population continued to grow, reaching 294,000 by 1991

From August 6 to August 31, 1991, Hawaii was an independent entity, after which it joined the newly formed Kyrgyz Republic. As of 2026, Hawaii is a region of Kyrgyzstan, while the western part is a U.S. state. The population of the Kyrgyz part is 728. thousand people


r/AlternateHistory • • 14h ago

Pre-1700s My Alternative History Modern Day World Map based on my Venice campaing in EU4 is finnaly finished!

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18 Upvotes

Last year I made a map showcasing the modern day Most Serene Imperial Republic of Venice. Today I finally finished the full world map of that same setting! The setting itself is based on my EU4 campaign as Venice. I was inspired by it and went about imagining how world history would have played out from the end of my campaing to the present day. I hope you liek it! It's my first world map, and if there is interest, I thought about posting more info maps about the setting. Feel free to ask any questions!


r/AlternateHistory • • 22h ago

Pre-1700s What of the tectonics for Australia were better?

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78 Upvotes

Map one is a elevation relief of my fictional Australia in my world and how it corresponds to the height of different features

2 is the elevation range on all nearly 66,000 levels of white. Its range is from 2800 meters to below sea level

3 is the biomes of Australia as a

Köppen climate classification map

4 is how it would look from space


r/AlternateHistory • • 7h ago

1900s 架空历史:如果四人帮成功夺权

5 Upvotes

【本文纯属虚构的架空历史,仅供娱乐】

如果1976年四人帮成功,今天的中国会是怎样?

四人帮成功之后,中国当然是走"文革式政权有限自我修正"的道路:

如果四人帮成功,王洪文长期执政并推行有限改革,之后由胡锦涛接手二次改革,今天的中国会不会比现实中更保守、更慢、更封闭,却始终没有崩溃?

1976年9月9日零点十分,毛泽东逝世。此后二十四天,中南海表面平静,暗流汹涌。华国锋、叶剑英、汪东兴一方,以"保卫毛主席遗体"和"整理遗稿"为名,在西山、玉泉山和中南海警卫部队中反复布置,计划在10月6日前后对四人帮动手。四人帮一方也有自己的情报来源:张春桥通过上海的旧部,从北京卫戍区一名参谋处得知叶剑英近日频繁会见老将领;毛远新则从警卫系统内部的一个联络人那里,得知汪东兴已经下令更换会场警卫。

关键的转折,发生在9月28日。这天夜里,姚文元在审阅一份《毛主席遗稿整理方案》时,发现方案的起草者名单里,没有一个人来自中央文革系统,他把文件拿给张春桥看。张春桥看了很久,只说了一句:"他们要先动手。"当晚,王洪文、张春桥、姚文元、毛远新在人民大会堂的一间小房间里开了三个小时的会。江青因为情绪激动,被拦在会外。这场会议决定了一件事:不能等,必须抢在六号之前。

四人帮的筹划,主要靠三条线。

第一条线是军队。毛远新当时在辽宁,是沈阳军区的政委,和军区的几位师级干部关系密切,他这些年一直在做一件事:把毛泽东生前留下的各种批示、谈话记录、手令样本收集起来,由一位专门的文书整理成册。他带到北京的,是一份据说由毛泽东亲笔署名的《关于军队工作的几点意见》,里面有一句话,后来成为政变时最关键的一块招牌:"军队要听党的话,党要听主席的话。"

第二条线是上海。张春桥通过上海民兵指挥部,调了约两万名民兵进驻北京周边,名义上是"参加首都国庆保卫"。徐景贤从上海派了一支精干的宣传和电台人员,随时准备接管广播电台。

第三条线,是最不起眼的一条:王洪文自己。他在这些年里,一直保持着和工人造反派旧部的联系,其中有一位叫耿金章的老乡,在北京一个国营机械厂当工会主席,手里掌握着几百名骨干工人。这些人在10月3日那天,被派去守住北京电报大楼和几家主要印刷厂。

10月3日清晨六点五十分,政治局的通知送到每个人手里。通知用的是中央办公厅的标准格式,署名是"主持中央日常工作的王洪文同志"。华国锋看到通知时,皱了皱眉头,他问身边的秘书:"开会的通知,为什么不是汪东兴同志发的?"秘书说,据说汪东兴同志昨夜身体不适。华国锋沉默片刻,还是决定去开会。他后来在湖南的一个县城里反复回忆这一刻,对身边的人说过:"我当时想,万一是真的有遗稿的事呢。"

会场设在中南海怀仁堂。华国锋、叶剑英、李先念、陈锡联、吴德、纪登奎等人陆续到达,在门外被毛远新带来的人拦下,对方说,会议改在另一个房间召开,请跟着走。走到一半,华国锋发觉不对,转身想退,却发现来路已被堵住。叶剑英走在最后,没有被带进怀仁堂,他的车在西门被拦下,驾驶员报告说,哨兵出示的是军委办公厅的手令,上面盖着叶剑英再熟悉不过的印章。叶剑英在车里坐了很久,最后说了一句:"掉头,回西山。"但西山的路口也已经封了。

汪东兴是最后一个被控制的。他在中南海西门亲自检查警卫,发现新来的一队士兵面孔陌生,便让他们出示证件。带队的是毛远新手下的一名团长,他把一份文件递过去,汪东兴看了几行,抬头问:"这个手令,是谁签发的?"团长说:"是主席的。"汪东兴说:"哪个主席?"团长没有回答。几分钟后,汪东兴被他自己的警卫员,也就是他一手提拔的几位亲信,缴了枪。这几位亲信里,有两个是毛远新早就收买的。

当天上午十一点,北京所有重要部门都已被接管。下午三点,政治局"扩大会议"在人民大会堂召开,到会者二十一人,其中有十一人是四人帮一系或中间派,其余是被"请来"的。会议通过了两项决定:第一,华国锋、叶剑英、汪东兴等人"因涉嫌策划反党阴谋,需接受审查";第二,推举王洪文同志为中共中央主席。表决时,李先念沉默,陈永贵举手,纪登奎举手后流下了眼泪,吴德没有举手,但也没有反对,只是低着头。

当晚八点,广播电台播出了公告。王洪文在公告发布前,一个人在办公室里坐了很久。他的秘书后来回忆,说他当时面前摆着一杯茶,一口没喝,只是反复念叨:"我不是为了当主席,我是怕有人要搞掉主席的路线。"这句话到底有几分是真的,没有人说得清。

接下来的三个月,是中国政治最紧张的一段时间。

王洪文上台后做的第一件事,是稳住军队。他连续召见了十二位大军区司令员和政委。许世友在广州见到毛远新带来的手令时,据说把手令摔在桌上,说:"我只认毛主席。"但他当时手里的兵,已经被分割,部队里的政委换成了新任命的人。他最终接受了"中央军委委员"的头衔,并表态拥护"新中央",这是他人生中最屈辱的一次让步,却也保住了他的家人和部下。

韦国清、陈锡联、徐世友、杨得志、李德生,各人态度不一。陈锡联曾是华国锋的盟友,被软禁了一个月后,被允许"检讨",随后被调去管农垦。杨得志因为与上海系没有历史恩怨,被留在北京军区,但实权被毛远新的人架空。

对叶剑英的处置,是整个政变中最微妙的一环。王洪文不敢杀他,也不敢放他。叶剑英在军中的威望太高,一旦处置不当,各军区会动摇。最终的方案是:软禁在广东,由中央派专人"护理",名义上是"养病"。叶剑英在广东的一处小院子里住了几年,院子里有一片荔枝林,他每天傍晚在树下坐着,什么都不说。1983年冬天,他因感冒转肺炎去世,官方发了一条极简短的消息,称"因病不幸逝世"。有人说他是被"护理"人员耽误了治疗,也有人说,他只是老了。

华国锋的结局更为凄凉。他被打成"右倾投降主义的代理人",下放湖南一个县的农具厂做工人。他在那里待了二十多年,学会了修拖拉机,工友们不知道他曾经是中央主席。2005年,他在一个冬夜里去世,身边只有一个女儿,没有追悼会,没有讣告。

汪东兴则被关进了秦城监狱,罪名是"阴谋篡党夺权的主谋"。他一直不认罪,在狱里写了几十万字的申诉,没有一份送出监狱。1990年代他因病保外就医,不久去世。

邓小平的处置更是一场反复的拉锯。1976年10月,邓小平在北京的住所里被带走,先是软禁在北京西郊,1977年春天转到江西。王洪文起初想把他"批倒批臭",开除党籍,永不叙用。张春桥主张更狠,要把他送去"劳动改造"。江青则主张公开批斗,让他在全国人民面前"认罪"。但是毛远新出了一个主意:不公开批斗,而是把邓小平软禁起来,不给他任何政治待遇,也不给他自由,让他在沉默里被遗忘。这个主意最后被采纳了,其中有一个重要原因是:军队里有不少老将领是邓小平的旧部,公开批斗邓小平,可能激起哗变。

1977年夏天,邓小平被送到江西南昌郊外的一处院子里,门口有两个哨兵。他的家人只能在节日探视。院子里有一块空地,他种了几棵橘树,每天浇水,每天读书。据说他读得最多的,是一部《资治通鉴》。

与此同时,党内的清洗正在全面展开。胡耀邦被打成"邓小平的黑干将",下放湖北。万里被送去农场劳动。陈云因为和王洪文之间有一层旧关系,没有被整,但被"建议"回家养病。彭真、薄一波、杨尚昆、乔石等人被陆续审查。李先念则选择了沉默与观望,王洪文也没有动他,因为国务院的日常运转,还需要一个熟悉经济工作的人坐镇。

但是人事安排很快暴露出一个根本问题:四人帮控制了权力,却缺乏治国的人才。

张春桥出任国务院总理后,一连开了几十次会议,每一次都在强调"路线斗争"。但他发现,没有人能告诉他,下个月的粮食从哪里调,钢铁指标怎么完成,外汇储备怎么平衡。他从上海带来的班底,大多是宣传干部和造反派出身的基层领导,处理经济问题时一片混乱。1977年冬天,北方多个城市煤炭告急,华北几个省的居民在零下二十度的天气里,连续两周没有足够的取暖煤。国务院内部有人给张春桥写了一份报告,建议紧急从东北调运。张春桥在报告上批了一句:"阶级斗争,重于调运。"这一批示后来成为经济系统里的笑谈。

1978年春天,广州军区爆发了一场兵变。起因是广州军区几位师长,不满上海系干部被派驻部队担任政委,其中一位叫吴克华的师长,带着一个团试图控制广州电台。事件在三天内被平息,北京调了两个师从武汉、长沙赶来,兵变部队在没有开火的情况下被缴械。事件之后,数千人被处决,军队高层经历大换血。毛远新在这次事件中全程指挥,立下大功,得到王洪文的特别嘉奖,被提升为中央军委常委。

但是这次兵变,也在王洪文心里种下了一个念头:靠枪杆子压住军队,终究不是长久之计。

1979年春天,那场大饥荒,把这个念头推到了台前。

那一年北方大旱,南方连月阴雨,粮食严重减产。安徽、河南、甘肃、贵州,多个县的存粮见底。地方干部起初不敢上报,因为上报意味着承认"路线错误",但随着出现饿死人的情况,一份份报告通过各种渠道,送到了北京。其中最触动王洪文的,是安徽凤阳县一个公社书记写的一份报告,报告里写着:"今年春荒,全公社饿死二百余人,其中儿童占三分之一。"

王洪文在这份报告上批了四个字:"查,要实。"随后他派了一个由中央办公厅和农业部联合组成的调查组,去了安徽、河南、甘肃三省,调查组带回来的材料,比任何报告都更触目惊心。

那天晚上,他把张春桥叫到自己的办公室,把材料摆在桌上。张春桥照例戴着眼镜,坐得笔直,把材料看了一遍,然后说:"这是阶级敌人破坏的结果,要抓紧批判,深挖背后的黑手。"

王洪文说:"春桥同志,再批下去,人要饿死的。"

张春桥推了推眼镜,说:"饿死几个人,不是路线问题。"

王洪文没有说话,转过身,看着窗外。他的手在身后慢慢攥紧,指节发白。很久以后,他说:"你先回去吧。"

据当时在场的秘书回忆,张春桥走后,王洪文一个人在办公室里坐了一夜。第二天早晨,他让秘书给他叫了三个人:国务院副总理纪登奎、农业部部长,以及一位长期在安徽工作的老农业干部万里的旧部。他们谈了整整一天,谈的是一件在当时几乎不可想象的事:能不能在一些最穷的县里,让农民把地分下去,各干各的。

这一决定,后来成为"有限调整"的起点。

但是,在当时的政治气氛下,这是一个极其危险的举动。王洪文很清楚,一旦被江青、张春桥抓住把柄,他自己就是"右倾翻案"的头号人物。所以他采取的办法,是"不下文件、不开会议、不留笔记":他私下让安徽、四川、贵州几个县的书记,用"自留地扩大""副业调剂"这类名义,悄悄试行包产到户。

1980年,中央通过了《关于若干历史问题的决议》,宣布文化大革命取得决定性胜利,同时第一次提出"革命与生产并举"。这个口号是王洪文与几位秘书反复推敲的结果,措辞极其小心,既不否定文革,又给后来的调整留了余地。江青看到文件时,批了一句:"什么叫并举?革命就是革命。"

这是两个人之间第一次公开的分歧。

真正的冲突在1982年爆发。

那年春天,江青在一次政治局会议上提出,要在全国发动"第二次文化大革命",矛头直指"党内的新资产阶级",也就是那些在经济工作中尝到甜头的地方干部。她在会上列出了一份长长的名单,包括四川、安徽、贵州、广东的十几位省委书记。她的理由是:"这些人搞包产到户,是在挖社会主义墙脚。"

王洪文当场没有表态。会后,他连夜召集了几位军区司令员和国务院的几位副总理,说了一段话,大意是:再来一次,军队要出事,工厂要出事,农村要出事,我们承受不起。

在座的人里,有人沉默,有人点头。许世友当时已经不太说话,只是微微点了点头。李先念说了一句:"主席,我们同意您的意见。"这是他第一次称王洪文为"主席",而不是"洪文同志"。

此后的两年,是中国政治里最微妙的两年。

王洪文没有公开反对江青,而是采取了一种"温水煮青蛙"的办法。第一步,从人事入手:他把江青在中央文革系统里的几位核心亲信,一一调离要害岗位,有的去了文化部,有的去了国务院的闲职,有的被送去党校"学习"。第二步,从经费入手:中央文革系统的预算被一次次削减,理由是"全国财政紧张"。第三步,从舆论入手:他让姚文元撰写了一系列文章,强调"稳定压倒一切",姚文元在这件事上,实际上选择了站在王洪文一边。

姚文元为什么会倒向王洪文?这是后世历史学家争论最多的问题之一。一种说法是,姚文元作为一个文人,比江青更清楚,再来一次文革,自己这些人未必能活下来;另一种说法是,姚文元在1981年曾经私下向王洪文表示:"江青同志越来越不冷静。"这句话被王洪文记在心里。

1984年春天,江青在一次会议上与王洪文当面争吵,情绪失控,当场摔了杯子,指着王洪文说:"你忘了是谁把你提起来的!"王洪文平静地回答:"是主席。"他停了一下,又说:"也是我自己干出来的。"

那天下午,政治局做出决定:江青同志因身体原因,需要长期休养,暂停一切职务。她被送到北京郊外一处院子,名义上是疗养,实际上是软禁。院子里有一台电影放映机,她让人送来过去的老电影,一遍一遍地看。1998年,她在睡梦中去世,消息只出现在报纸第三版的一个角落。

张春桥的处置,则是整个权力斗争里最耐人寻味的一笔。

他和王洪文之间的分歧,不是路线上的,而是方法上的。他认为任何经济上的"调整",都是对原则的背叛,他也不会像江青那样公开挑战王洪文,而是选择消极抵制:在国务院会议上沉默,在批示文件时拖延,在关键的经济政策上反复表示"需要研究"。

王洪文对他的处理,没有采取江青式的强硬手段,而是给了他一个体面的退路。1985年,张春桥被安排转任全国人大常委会副委员长,名义上是升职,实际上是被移出了权力核心。国务院总理的位置,则由一位务实的技术官僚接任,也就是他一直不太瞧得上的纪登奎。

张春桥在人大的位置上待了二十多年,很少发表意见。有人说他是看透了,也有人说他是在等待。无论如何,他躲过了此后的所有政治风波,活到了九十三岁,是四人帮里最长寿的一位。

姚文元则在宣传系统里一直干到九十年代后期,退居二线后,搬到杭州附近一座小城。2004年,他因病去世,身后留下几本没有发表的笔记。有人说他在笔记里反思过文革,也有人说那不过是普通的读书笔记。

1984年起,"有限调整"在王洪文主持下全面展开,但这一次,有了一整套班底。

这套班底里,最重要的一位是赵紫阳。赵紫阳在四川和广东都做过省级领导,在地方上推行过包产到户,是王洪文最看重的经济干部。1981年,他从四川调到北京,起初只是国务院的一名副总理,不引人注意。1984年,他开始主持经济体制改革的试点工作,1986年出任中共中央副主席,这一职位,在王洪文时代是为最信赖的助手设立的。

另一位重要人物,是陈云。陈云在文革中没有被整,但也一直被边缘化。王洪文上台后,主动向他示好,多次登门,称他为"陈云同志,党内最懂经济的老同志"。陈云对这位年轻的主席,态度复杂。他不喜欢四人帮,也不喜欢造反派,但他更不喜欢混乱。1983年,他在一次私下谈话中说了一句:"如果能把饭碗端稳,让谁当家,是后面的事。"这句话后来被王洪文引用过无数次。

陈云在中央提出了"鸟笼经济"的主张:计划是笼子,市场是鸟,鸟可以飞,但不能飞出笼子。这一理论成为王洪文时代"有限调整"的核心。而赵紫阳则是执行这一理论的人,在笼子范围内,他想尽办法让鸟飞得更高一点。

两个人之间的关系,既合作又博弈。陈云主张稳,赵紫阳主张快;陈云强调计划,赵紫阳强调市场。王洪文在两者之间,扮演了平衡者的角色:他需要赵紫阳的冲劲,也需要陈云的稳重。

与此同时,另一批"自己人"也被推上了高位。

毛远新是毛泽东的侄子,在军队里影响力极大。1987年,他进入政治局,1990年代出任中央军委副主席,主管军队政治工作,是王洪文最信赖的军队代理人。但毛远新和赵紫阳之间的关系,一直很紧张。他认为赵紫阳"太右",赵紫阳则认为毛远新"太左",双方在各种会议上多次交锋。

谢静宜长期主管教育和妇女工作,在这一领域有极大的影响力。她主张"教育要为无产阶级政治服务",在高校里推行了一套严格的政治审查制度,学生入学需要经过"政审",教师评职称需要经过"思想考核"。但是,在科学技术领域,她也被迫做了一些让步,允许一部分科研人员"专心搞业务",不必参加所有政治学习。

徐景贤回到上海,担任市委书记,是上海系的头面人物。他在上海的工作风格,可以用"稳健"二字概括。他支持浦东开发,也支持引进外资,但在政治问题上,极其谨慎。他和王洪文之间,有一种出生入死的交情,王洪文对他的信任,超过其他任何人。

庄则栋出任国家体育系统的负责人,主要工作是带领中国的体育代表团参加国际赛事。他是一个性格温和的人,在这个位置上相当称职,也因此成为"老造反班底"里最没有争议的一位。

另一方面,老干部的处境,则呈现出两个极端。

那些愿意合作的,被陆续起用。万里在1985年从农场回到北京,担任国务院副总理,分管农业。他是"有限调整"在农村领域的具体执行者。胡耀邦则在1987年被调回北京,在中央党校担任副校长,主管干部培训,名义上是平反,实际上是一个闲职。

那些不愿合作的,则继续被打压。彭真、薄一波被长期软禁,直到1990年代才被允许"回家养老"。杨尚昆被调往地方,担任一个省的政协副主席,不再有任何实权。乔石则选择主动请求"到基层锻炼",被派往东北一个国营工厂担任党委书记,在那里度过了十年。

而邓小平,则始终是一个不可触碰的禁忌。

每年的中央工作会议上,总有几位老同志,小心翼翼地提起邓小平的名字,说这位老同志年事已高,是否可以考虑恢复名誉,至少让他回北京养老。王洪文每次的回答,都是沉默,然后说:"再看看。"

他不是不知道邓小平的能力,正是因为知道,才不敢放。他心里清楚,邓小平是"有限调整"的真正设计者,如果这个人重新出来,他苦心经营的那一套"有限",就会被扩大成"全面",而那是他不能承受的。

1989年的春天,这一切都面临考验。

4月15日,胡耀邦逝世。消息传出后,北京高校的学生先是自发悼念,几天后,演变为大规模集会。4月22日,数万名学生聚集在天安门广场,要求"政治透明、新闻自由、反对官倒"。工人和市民也陆续加入,广场上出现了第一批工人自治联合会的旗帜。

党内的反应,迅速分裂成两派。

强硬派以毛远新为首,包括军队系统的部分将领和宣传系统的几位官员。他们主张戒严,调部队进京,以"雷霆手段"制止动乱。毛远新在政治局会议上说:"这是1976年以来最严重的一次政治危机,如果处理不当,后果将无法挽回。"

温和派以赵紫阳为首,包括国务院系统的一批官员和一些地方干部。他们主张对话,通过让步化解危机。赵紫阳在会上说:"这些学生不是反革命,他们是想让这个国家变得更好。"

陈云的态度,起初是中立的。他私下对王洪文说:"这个时候,不能出一点差错。"但他没有表明立场,而是说了一句:"主席,您看着办。"

王洪文连续开了三天会,没有表态。

4月25日下午,他一个人走到中南海的湖边,在湖边站了很久。身边的秘书后来回忆,说他望着对岸的灯火,说了一句:"我也是从广场上走出来的。"

他想起了1967年的上海,想起那个自己带着几万工人冲进市委大楼的夜晚。那时候他也是广场上的一个,也曾相信自己代表着一种正义。几十年后,他终于坐在了那座大楼的最高处,却不想再让别人在广场上流血。

第二天上午,他召集了政治局,宣布了三项决定:第一,不戒严,不调军队进京;第二,由赵紫阳牵头,与学生代表直接对话;第三,对话期间,任何部门不得使用暴力。

毛远新当场表示反对,说主席此举会动摇军心。王洪文看着他,缓缓地说:"军队是人民的军队,不是对付学生的。"

这是毛远新第一次在公开场合被王洪文否决。他沉默了片刻,然后说:"我服从中央的决定。"但会后,他私下对几位军队将领说:"主席老了,心软了。"

对话持续了十一天。

赵紫阳亲自接见了学生代表,倾听他们的诉求,并承诺了一系列具体措施:允许高校成立学生自治组织,扩大报刊的批评空间,公布党政干部亲属经商的情况,成立反腐败委员会,放缓价格改革。

学生内部对这些承诺的反应,并不一致。一部分人认为这是重大胜利,应当见好就收;另一部分人则认为,这些承诺只是权宜之计,必须继续施压。双方在广场上激烈争论,最终,经过几轮投票,多数人同意撤离广场。

广场上最后一批人离开的那天,清洁工发现地上散落着许多纸条,上面写着各种各样的话,有人写"谢谢",有人写"我们等着看",还有人只写了一个字:"信"。

但这场对话的代价,是党内的巨大分裂。

强硬派指责王洪文"向资产阶级自由化投降"。毛远新在军队内部串联,起草了一份致中央的联名信,署名者包括十几位将领,信里写着:"对话是危险的让步,必须及时纠正。"这封信被送到王洪文案头时,王洪文看了很久,然后让秘书"留下,不批"。

赵紫阳则被指"纵容动乱",在党内受到强烈抨击。陈云在一次会议上说了一句话:"改革不能脱离轨道。"这句话被很多人解读为对赵紫阳的批评。

王洪文在这场斗争里,扮演了一个极其高明的平衡者。他先是把毛远新手下的几位强硬派将领,以"轮岗学习"为名,调离了军队要害岗位。接着,他又在党内发起了一场"整顿思想"的运动,名义上是"统一认识",实际上是敲打赵紫阳身边的一批激进派。

1989年夏天,赵紫阳的几位核心助手,被调往地方担任闲职。学生自治组织的活动范围,也被悄悄限制。两年之后,大部分自治组织转为"官方认可的学生联合会",实际上被收编。很多学生领袖进入体制,成为各级机关的年轻干部,也有人被边缘化,在随后几年里默默消失。

这场风波没有流血,也没有换来真正的政治改革,但它改变了一件事:在以后的几十年里,每当有人提起"春天",指的都是那次对话,而不是别的什么。

1991年底,苏联解体。电视里播放着红旗从克里姆林宫降下的画面,许多老干部坐在电视机前,一言不发。

那天夜里,王洪文在中南海召开了紧急会议。他在会上说了很长一段话,大意是:苏联之所以垮台,是因为既没有把饭碗端稳,也没有把权力管住,我们不能重蹈覆辙。从此以后,党内关于政治体制改革的讨论被彻底叫停,"稳定压倒一切"成了新的口号。

这次会议,也是赵紫阳政治生涯的转折点。他在会上提出,应当"适当扩大党内民主",被陈云当场反驳。陈云说:"这个时候,不能乱。"王洪文没有表态,会议结束时,他对赵紫阳说了一句:"你先放一放。"

此后,赵紫阳在中央的影响力,明显下降。

但是,经济上的调整反而加快了。

1992年春天,王洪文南下上海,视察浦东。那天是个阴天,他站在黄浦江边,望着对岸一片荒地,说了一句话:"要在坚持革命传统的前提下,尽快把生产搞上去。"这句话后来被印在无数标语上,浦东也在这句话之后迎来了真正的开发。

徐景贤在这个过程里,扮演了关键角色。他在上海主持了浦东开发的整体规划,引进了大批外资,建设了一座座工厂、仓库、码头。他和一位年轻的上海市领导,也就是后来的江泽民,配合得极为默契。江泽民在上海长期工作,稳健、圆融,善于处理各方关系。1992年,他进入中央,出任副主席,成为事实上的第二号人物。

九十年代的中国,增长速度保持在年均六到七个百分点。这个数字在当时并不算惊人,却足够稳定。轻工业和出口加工业发展起来,沿海地区的农民工涌入城市,在工地和流水线上挣到了他们人生中第一笔像样的工资。重工业和国有企业仍占据主导,银行体系封闭运行,资本市场只允许小规模试点,民营企业想要生存,往往必须挂靠在某个集体或国营单位名下,成为所谓的"红帽子企业"。

1997年,香港回归。北京承诺保留香港原有的经济和法律制度,但在政治事务上的干预明显比现实中更多。许多资本和人才没有等到变化发生,就选择了提前离开,流向新加坡、悉尼和温哥华。

1999年,赵紫阳因年事已高,从副主席位置上退下来。他搬进了北京西郊一处安静的院落,每天看看书、写写字,偶尔有老部下来拜访,他也只是笑笑,不多谈政治。江泽民成为事实上的第一副主席。2005年,赵紫阳在睡梦中安然离世,党内给予较高的评价,国家举行了追悼会,参加的人很多,其中不乏当年广场上的学生,如今已是两鬓斑白的中年人。

进入新世纪,社会的面貌一天天改变。

2001年,计划生育政策从"晚稀少"调整为较宽松的"两孩政策",人口出现了短暂的回升。城市里出现了第一批商品房,农民工子女开始在城里上学,网吧、手机、个人电脑,一件件新鲜事物涌进人们的日常。

2002年冬天,邓小平在江西南昌郊外的院子里去世,终年九十八岁。据说他晚年情绪低落,每天只是坐在院子里,望着那几棵橘树发呆。他的去世,没有惊动任何人,官方只发了一条极简短的消息,没有追悼会,没有悼词,只写了"曾任党和国家领导职务"。

那天夜里,院子里的橘树落了一地的叶子。

2003年前后,姚文元的健康状况急剧恶化,2004年去世,官方评价"为党的宣传事业作出了贡献"。此时,四人帮中只剩张春桥一人在世,他深居简出,极少公开露面。

王洪文的晚年,是在北京度过的。他的肝病时轻时重,医生劝他少操心,他却总是放不下。

2003年前后,他开始留意地方上的年轻干部。时任浙江省委书记、省人大常委会主任、浙江省军区党委第一书记的习近平,在他的笔记本上被圈了好几次。他对身边人说过,这个人稳当,有分寸,值得往中央提一提。

这个想法,在中央内部引起了不小的争议。毛远新表示反对,认为"这个人过于低调,不够果断"。江泽民则持保留态度,他认为,应该先让这个人在地方上再历练几年。徐景贤倒是附和王洪文的意见,但他的话语权,已经不如从前。

王洪文最终没有等到这一天。

2008年夏天,王洪文病重住院。他躺在病床上,清醒的时候不多,有时会念叨一些很久以前的事,说起上海国棉十七厂的车间,说起那台老旧的织布机,说起1967年那个冬天的夜晚。八月的一个傍晚,他在睡梦中去世,终年七十二岁。

国家为他举行了隆重的国葬,官方称他为"继往开来的无产阶级革命家"。送葬的队伍里,有人真心哭泣,也有人只是例行公事地低头。北京的天空很蓝,蓝得有些不真实。

他留下的,是一个封闭、平庸,却始终没有崩溃的国家。也留下了一个无人能回答的问题:这个国家,到底需不需要更多的改革?

王洪文去世后的第三天,中央政治局召开了紧急会议,讨论继任人选。

江泽民当时已经八十二岁,作为第一副主席,本应是最自然的继任者。但是,他的身体状况已经不允许他担任这个需要耗费大量精力的职位。他在会上表态:"我年纪大了,不适合再担当这个重任。"

毛远新是另一位重要的竞争者。他在军队里的影响力无人能及,也是毛泽东的侄子,有着特殊的政治资本。他在会上表达了出任主席的意愿,强调"要继续坚持王洪文同志开创的路线"。

但是,毛远新的竞争,很快遇到了阻力。几位国务院系统的老干部私下串联,认为毛远新"过于强硬,不利于经济发展"。军队内部的一些将领,也对毛远新在1989年的表现耿耿于怀,认为他"在关键时刻缺乏政治判断力"。

在这个关键时刻,一位年轻一些的干部进入了人们的视野。

胡锦涛,当时担任中央书记处书记、中央党校校长,长期在共青团和地方工作,稳健、低调,善于协调各方关系。他在王洪文时代,一直被视为一个"不太引人注意的接班人",没有强烈的派系色彩,也没有明显的个人野心。

经过几轮协商,中央委员会最终选举胡锦涛为中共中央主席。这个决定,出乎很多人的意料,却也是各方妥协的结果:毛远新没有赢,但也没有输,他保留了军委副主席的职位;上海系保留了一定的影响力;国务院系统的技术官僚得到了更大的发言权。

胡锦涛上台后,外界对他的评价并不高,普遍认为他不过是一个谨慎的守成者。他没有急着提出新的口号,只是用了两年时间稳住权力:逐步更换了几位保守派的省委书记,稀释了王洪文时代形成的上海系势力,并在军队里慢慢培养了一批自己信任的将领。

习近平留在了浙江,后来转到全国人大系统任职,成为一位体面的老干部,没有再往上走一步。这是他职业生涯的终点,也是历史给王洪文那份看好所画上的句号。

2008年底,在中央工作会议上,胡锦涛提出了"继续深化改革、扩大开放"的口号。这句话在当时并没有引起太大反响,许多人以为不过是又一次例行表态,只有少数经济学家注意到,这一次,改革的内容具体得多。

此后的改革,以邓小平式的路径展开,但步伐更稳。农村土地制度逐步放开,农民获得长期使用权,并可以进行有限的流转;国有企业开始大规模改制,引入民间资本和外资;金融体系引入商业银行竞争,建立了真正意义上的股票市场和债券市场;延续了几十年的价格双轨制被彻底取消。

中国加入世界贸易组织是在2007年,比现实中晚了整整六年,但此后外资进入的速度明显加快。出口加工业从沿海扩展到内地,高速铁路和高速公路网络开始成型,城市化率从不到四成一路攀升。户籍制度逐步松动,中小城市先放开,大城市实行积分入户,农民工子女在城里上学的限制一点点取消。

2010年代,中国经济的增速重新回到七到八个百分点,没有现实中那么快,却相当稳健。2012年,中国GDP超过德国,2018年超过日本,成为世界第三大经济体。国内的互联网企业在一个被围起来的市场里迅速成长,电商、移动支付、短视频、外卖,一样样新业态在这个封闭而庞大的市场里长了出来。

2020年代,一场席卷全球的疫情打乱了所有人的节奏。中国采取了严格的封控措施,一度成功控制住了疫情,经济增速却也因此明显放缓。此后几年,政府靠基础设施投资、出口回升和内需刺激一点点把经济拉了回来。

到2026年,中国GDP约为现实世界中国的九成五,按市场汇率计算,排在美国和欧盟整体之后,居世界第三位。人均收入仍明显低于发达国家,不过城市中产阶级已经形成,沿海省份的生活水平接近中等发达国家。

在这个世界里,台湾在国民党统治下完成了民主化,经济规模和技术水平在亚洲居于前列。两岸关系长期冷淡,九十年代的经贸往来增长很快,但政治上始终没有突破。

在这个世界里,香港保留了法律和金融体系,但政治空间远小于现实中的九七年之后。

在这个世界里,国家名称依然叫中华人民共和国,中国共产党依然是唯一的执政党,没有多党选举,也没有竞争性政治。但党内民主有所扩大,不同派系可以公开争论经济政策。

在这个世界里,国际互联网接入受到严格限制,普通人只能使用国内网络,国际网站大多无法访问。

在这个世界里,邓小平始终没有被平反,2002年的去世也没有任何官方的纪念。叶剑英、华国锋等人的名字几乎不出现在教科书中,"十月三日"被称为"粉碎右倾翻案风的伟大胜利"。有些老人在私下聚会时,会端起酒杯,向着西南的方向静静地洒上一点。

在这个世界里,1989年被官方称为"春天的对话",被视为王洪文"善于听取意见"的例证。民间对这件事有着不同的评价:一些人认为那是一次错失的政治改革机会,另一些人则认为,如果当时没有那些让步,中国很可能陷入更大的动荡。

在这个世界里,年轻一代对政治相对冷淡。他们没有经历过文化大革命,也没有亲眼见过1989年的广场。在他们眼里,日子比父辈好,机会比父辈多,只是上升的空间越来越有限。他们常说的一句话是:"这个国家什么都在变,只有变得不够快。"


r/AlternateHistory • • 17m ago

Althist Help Help

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r/AlternateHistory • • 1d ago

1900s a map of the United States as of 1914 in my British Haiti TL

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80 Upvotes

explanations for national border changes in chronological order:

1) the US loses the war of 1812 thanks to Haitian troops and the slave revolts they cause, consequently Britain annexes Maine east of the Kennebec river, Minnesota west of the red river and the lands west of the Souris and north of the Missouri river.

2) Britain is thus able to succeed in settling the red river valley in 1818 thereby providing a larger pool of potential settlers of the Oregon country. This paired with the difficulty of getting to OTL Washington see's the Oregon country divided at the Columbia and Snake rivers.

3) The US wanting more Pacific Coast and with a stronger slave power see's it annex Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, rio Grande and accepts Yucatan's request for annexation.

4) The US buys Cuba in 1854.


r/AlternateHistory • • 1h ago

Post 2000s Map of Europe in 2121 if everything went wrong (NOTE : THIS DOES NOT REFLECT MY IDEOLOGIES PLEASE NO HATE)

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r/AlternateHistory • • 11h ago

1900s Confederation Of Columbia in 1994

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Confederation Of Columbia is a decentralized country and made up with 6 Republics and it's one of the losers of WW1 and WW2 and in 1995 is the year that the Confederation Of Columbia collapsed due to the civil rights and really unstable.

And by the way WW3 happened in 1983 between the German empire and Russian imperial State.

That's all I got to say.


r/AlternateHistory • • 8h ago

Post 2000s WW1 is coming!

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After the African American Rebellion against Columbia and the Columbians gets closer to the France Empire and the Texans and New Englanders and new Africa allies with the league of Allies.


r/AlternateHistory • • 5h ago

Post 2000s 2016 US Presidential Election: “On your feet, comrades! Ready for a little retribution?” (Pax Sanguinis Universe)

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For context, see Operation Feral Trinity and 2012 US Presidential Election

“On your feet, comrade! Ready for a little retribution?” - Perseus, Call of Duty: Black Ops Cold War (2020)

Presidential elections were held in the United States on November 8, 2016. The Republican) ticket of businessman Phillip Graves and former Missouri senator Grover Shepherd defeated the Democratic candidate of Igor Sikorsky, chairman of the American Democratic Socialist Party and Mariah Rowe, former pop singer turned politician, and Black Lives Matter activist. 

Phillip Graves, a major ally of the previous President, Saul Conklin, championed the conspiracy theory claiming that Roe v. Wade was somehow a predecessor to the Patriot Act. He vowed to overturn Roe v. Wade and repeal the Patriot Act. 

Meanwhile, Igor Sikorsky ran on an aggressive policy leaning heavily towards Democratic Socialist Party ideals and, most infamously, vowed to codify Roe v. Wade as law, while also defending the Patriot Act as a necessary step to protect the American people from “enemies within.”

Sikorsky’s biggest and most infamous campaign promise was to “crush the anti-abortion scourge in the United States.”

Sikorsky would lose the election thanks to later revelations that he hired private military contractors to spy on various pro-life organizations, while Phillip Graves won in a landslide. 


r/AlternateHistory • • 18h ago

1700-1900s Results of the German Volkhaus Elections 1850-1880

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r/AlternateHistory • • 23h ago

Post 2000s Ireland: The Best Case Scenario: What if the Bruce Campaign in Ireland succeeded? Part 4: The Four Power System and the Wider World

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r/AlternateHistory • • 1d ago

1700-1900s Results of the German Volkhaus Elections 1850-1880

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Another post in this scenario.

SCHWARZENBERG has been described by academics and popular culture alike as the “Founding Father of Germany”. The implied comparison is unflattering to his American counterparts, but fair: His 1850 constitution, hazed out in smoke-filled rooms by cigar-chomping bureaucrats and shellshocked royal dignitaries rather than revolutionary idealists, could only be considered a triumph by the most pridefully timid Anglophiles and the most exhausted democrats. It is far more conservative than the provisional constitution (roughly the OTL 1849 Frankfurt constitution). For example, the provisional constitution freed education from clerical oversight; the 1850 constitution does not, and implies education is largely left to the states. The states surrender important powers over diplomacy, customs, currency, and military affairs, but the central bureaucracy is still small, and the Imperial Diet is left to build national institutions and harmonize administration itself. In practice the Reich's legislative reach often outran its administrative capacity, leaving imperial law in the hands of officials who answered primarily to the states. The Reichsgericht (supreme court) quickly became the central institution for settling disputes between the Reich and the states. The languages and cultures of “non-German speaking peoples”  are constitutionally protected, but how far that protection goes is left open.

The Volkshaus is elected via secret ballot using a single-member, two-round absolute-majority system: a candidate needs >50% in the first ballot; otherwise the top two go to a Stichwahl (runoff).

Suffrage is initially restricted to men aged 25 and over, with the Reichswahlgesetz having a provision along these lines: “The franchise belongs to every male citizen of the Reich who has completed his twenty-fifth year, is of unblemished civil standing, and possesses economic and civic independence (wirtschaftliche und bürgerliche Selbständigkeit).”

A separate provision excludes those under guardianship, in active bankruptcy proceedings, receiving public poor relief, or deprived of civil rights by criminal judgment.

It does not explicitly exclude wage earners. Instead, the Schmerling government's first electoral regulations instruct officials to regard men in a relationship of personal or economic dependence as lacking Selbständigkeit. This initially includes most servants, apprentices, dependent journeymen, ordinary wage laborers and adult sons working within their fathers' households.

This is a post-Prussian-crisis revival of a principle previously defeated at Frankfurt. The “definition” of Selbständigkeit is gradually broadened over subsequent decades due to constant legal battles, because the number of adult men that live by wages drastically increases, making their exclusion increasingly silly. By the 1870s the electorate has drastically increased, but universal manhood suffrage has still not been achieved, with governing liberals increasingly fearful that further expansion would primarily strengthen the Socialists and conservative-clerical parties.

Confidence works like this:

  • The Minister-President and ministers are appointed and dismissed by the Emperor.
  • Imperial ministers are responsible for the exercise of executive power, and major imperial acts require ministerial countersignature.
  • The government need not obtain an affirmative parliamentary investiture.
  • The Volkshaus exercises binding legislative and budgetary authority.
  • A government defeated on a major matter may remain in office, but a clear parliamentary withdrawal of confidence eventually requires resignation or dissolution.
  • The Emperor retains the right to dissolve the Volkshaus and seek a new election, subject to safeguards against indefinitely circumventing Parliament.

Additionally, in 1858 the FP passed the crown jewel of its achievements: A package of reforms including a permanent budget committee with access to detailed ministerial accounts, requiring ministers to respond to questions from deputies, annual publication of comprehensive imperial accounts with an independent auditing institution, and pretty robust powers for committees investigating misconduct. This basically guaranteed that the Imperial Diet couldn’t be made toothless.

Franz Joseph did not begin his reign as a constitutionalist. A deeply conservative young monarch, he accepted Schwarzenberg's settlement largely out of necessity, and initially regarded many of its limitations on imperial authority with deep resentment. Over time—and with a great deal of patience from Minister-President Schmerling—he became an exceptionally capable constitutional monarch, though never a liberal. He remained a highly active participant in government, particularly in ministerial appointments, military affairs, and diplomacy, but gradually came to understand that openly exercising his authority could sometimes weaken it. Stubborn and occasionally prone to misjudging the Imperial Diet, he nevertheless learned to pick his battles, preferring private negotiations, quiet interventions, and ministerial influence to public constitutional confrontations he was unlikely to win. His political influence was substantial, but his public partisan footprint was small. He cultivated the image of a dignified, dutiful functionary who stood above ordinary party politics, and consequently enjoyed real personal respect even among republicans. Republicanism remained a significant political movement, but few considered the actual abolition of the monarchy a realistic prospect during his lifetime. 

His formal powers remained relatively constant, while the conventions governing their exercise changed considerably. By 1880, organized parliamentary parties had accumulated enough influence that the Emperor possessed much less practical freedom than he had in 1850, even though the constitution granted him essentially the same authority.

"If Germany were proclaimed a republic tomorrow, we would elect Franz Joseph its first President the day after—and grant him powers he would never dare exercise as Emperor." 

- Robert Blum, 1871

Political Parties:

Social Democratic Workers’ Party (Sozialdemokratische Arbeiterpartei, SDAP)

  • BOO!

Free-Minded Radical Democratic Party (Freisinnige Radikaldemokratische Partei, FRdP)

  • Offshoot of the FP and DVP following the FP becoming “elitist” and the DVP becoming “Prussian”. Formed in opposition to the policies of an RLP–FP coalition government in the 1860s, it massively gained popularity after the RLP’s 1870s electoral collapse and subsequent electoral alliance with the FP.
  • Situated to the left of the Progressive Party. Supports Republicanism, Free Trade, legal unions, cheap bread, free schools, deputy salaries, Universal Suffrage, and Laïcité. Opposes colonialism.
  • Everybody knows they’re Republicans, but they’re rather lowkey about that part.

Progressive Party (Fortschrittspartei, FP)

  • Liberal-reformist party, formed shortly after the 1850 election by independent liberal legislators. Wants more Parliamentary control, universal suffrage, proportional taxes, state oversight of church schools, and a bunch of other liberal reforms.
  • Eventually entered a permanent political alliance with the RLP in the 1870s.
  • Has a smorgasbord of achievements but was completely unable to achieve universal male suffrage, full parliamentary responsibility for ministers, or comprehensive secularization of education.
  • Support for universal suffrage became much less enthusiastic over time, until it became a priority again following electoral defeats. Their “universal suffrage” would still have a two-year residence requirement, which would quietly re-exclude the mobile young workers the household franchise already shuts out, among other friendly sounding restrictions.

Imperial Liberal Party (Reichsliberale Partei, RLP)

  • Initially the natural party of government. Descendant of the Casino faction. At first an enormous network of respectable constitutional liberals, officials, lawyers, professors, businessmen and local notables who rally around the new settlement.
  • Liberal-Conservative, Habsburg Loyalist, and Pragmatic. 
  • Really liked calling themselves “the Whigs” and the Conservatives “the Tories” for the first few years until they realized everyone thought it was weird and lame and it wasn’t catching on.

Free Conservative Party (Freikonservative Partei, FKP)

  • A Conservative Party that split from the German Imperial Party over the DRP’s relative apathy towards Austrian domination. Disproportionately Protestant compared to the DRP. Economically liberal and suspicious of paternalistic state intervention.
  • The whole party initially accepts the Empire's protectionist tariff regime as a practical necessity, but develops a powerful free-trade wing during the 1850s and 1860s. The two wings are Freihändler (economic liberals, bourgeois, commercially oriented, disproportionately northern/Protestant, more committed to strong national institutions but still suspicious of Austrian domination) and Schutzzöllner (agrarian and provincial conservatives, protectionists, a bit insular, increasingly receptive to clerical and paternalist conservatism)
  • Considers the development of a massive overseas empire to be financially ruinous and largely pointless. The British will defend German investments anyway.

German Imperial Party (Deutsche Reichspartei, DRP)

  • Conservative Party, which represents the traditional political establishment and landlords. Generally leans Catholic. What unites them is hierarchy, landed property, monarchy and suspicion of continued revolutionary reform.
  • Not really a “party” yet during the 1850 election, but a very embryonic caucus of conservative legislators.
  • Still thinks the mild quasi-endorsement of an 80 year old Metternich means something.
  • Reluctant to act like a proper mass party. Eventually becomes a bit of a joke, filled with old weirdos elected via traditional patronage, until it's absorbed into the CKP.
  • It holds on a bit better in the Staatenhaus.

Christian Conservative Party (Christlich-Konservative Partei, CKP)

  • In the early 1860s, the RLP–FKP coalition formed around what they both considered “modernization”. The Schutzzöllner wing of the FKP hated this, because abstract complaining about excessive government intervention suddenly became concrete policy, and pissed off. They don’t want to join the DRP, because it's kind of embarrassing and crusty. So a new party is formed.
  • This party is monarchist, protectionist, agrarian, clerical-friendly, anti-socialist, corporatist, and suspicious of liberal secularization.
  • This is an interconfessional conservative coalition with a disproportionately Catholic clerical/aristocratic core and a substantial Protestant agrarian wing.
  • Favors an aggressive colonial policy with state-led territorial expansion, because of protectionism and missionaries.

German People’s Party (Deutsche Volkspartei, DVP)

  • Begins as a broad radical-democratic party containing urban republicans, anticlerical intellectuals, revolutionary nationalists, artisans, peasants, early socialists. Republican, anti-clerical, democratic, revanchist against Prussia (though many want Bohemia and Slovenia to be independent), and opposed to standing armies.
  • The Social Democrats pull the organized working-class left away. The Progressives and eventually the Radicals pull respectable constitutional democrats away. Republicanism itself becomes less urgent as generations grow up under a functioning constitutional empire, except for a lot of Protestants that distrust the Habsburg Monarchy. What’s left is a portion of the radical nationalist, anticlerical, highly educated urban/professional wing, and a lot of people who couldn’t vote in the first place.
  • Was at its lowest in the late 1860s/early 1870s, where it occasionally failed to win any seats despite having a lot of members and a downright comical level of organization. At this point it's kind of an incoherent, directionless revanchist party pissed off about things people already came to terms with. 1848 members holding onto their seats on personal reputation retire/die, people in its clubs vote RLP/FKP or just can’t vote, and the vote is thin and scattered.
  • Could still technically be construed as just militant anti-clerical democrats until the Long Depression. The subsequent CKP-BNP-KNP coalition pisses them off even more due to minority protections and clericalism. And some Jewish conspiracies on the side.
  • Ideas of every citizen being in a militia transformed into an obsession with the “nation in arms” and universal conscription to fight back against the French, Prussians, Danish, Russians, reactionaries, whatever. Gymnastics clubs and rifle clubs make it semi-paramilitarized. “Germany must produce its own Bonaparte.”
  • Not pro-universal suffrage. Too many citizens have foreign influence, so favors kind of draconian suffrage restrictions.
  • Theoretically not anti-parliamentary as of 1880, still insists parliament should be sovereign, though parliament itself may or may not become the problem if Catholics continue to win elections.
  • Leader since 1874 is Georg von Schönerer.
  • A lot more old-school statist than it is corporatist.
  • In 1878, a book titled Die Königinhofer Lüge: Wie Rußland die Tschechen erfand ("The Königinhof Lie: How Russia Invented the Czechs") was published. The book declares Czech a false identity invented by Russian-funded professors that handed them a largely forged history and invented language, and goes on to detail a vast conspiracy begun in 1712 by Peter the Great. The DVP believes 100% of it.

Bohemian National Party (Böhmische Nationalpartei, BNP)

  • Broad Czech national coalition advocating recognition of Czech, restoration/protection of the constitutional rights of the Bohemian Crownlands, and extensive federal autonomy. Its leadership leans liberal, but in 1850 it has a very big tent that includes Catholic conservatives.
  • Still hasn’t managed to create a Bohemian state by 1880 lol.
  • Later the Free Conservative Party peels away a lot of its Conservative membership. “I don’t want Prague lawyers running everything,” says the Czech peasant. Because the FKP develops Czech-speaking local organizations and remains officially non-confessional.

Slovene National Party (Slovenska narodna stranka / Slowenische Nationalpartei, SNP)

  • Wants all Slovene-majority territory consolidated into an autonomous Slovenia within the German Empire. Liberal and secular in nature.

Catholic National Party (Katholische Nationalpartei, KNP)

  • Slovene party that split from the SNP because it’s too secular/liberal
  • Integralist, a bit more accepting of Habsburg rule and German influence than the SNP
  • Hates the other Slovene parties more than it hates the other Catholic-conservative parties.
  • Still kinda cares about Slovene autonomy/rights but integralism makes them massive bootlickers willing to sell out.

Istrian Party (Partito Istriano, PI)

  • Successor to the Candidati nazionali italiani, a loose band of Italian town notables who had sent a few deputies from Trieste, Istria and Fiume since 1850. It finally organized as a real party in 1876–77, once the 1875 franchise statute put thousands of Croat and Slovene villagers (*retch*) on the roll.
  • “Istria”, in PI usage, runs from Gradisca to Fiume; it sounds friendlier than “the Julian March”.
  • Wants an autonomous Istria with its own Diet (for affluent Italians), (Italian) schools, and self-government (for the coastal towns). It’s very much in favour of Istrian self-government, as long as Istria is self-governed by the people who already govern it (That’s the self part). 
  • Liberal, secular and anticlerical, which puts it firmly against the CKP–BNP–KNP coalition. Wins the runoff due to German voters and its massive political machine.

Czecho-Slovak National Party (Česko-slovenská národní strana, CSP)

  • Disagrees with the notion of the “Bohemian crown being an ancient and autonomous political entity within the German constitutional” blah blah blah whatever the other party says. Thinks German rule over Czechia is illegitimate. Split from the Bohemian National Party over its coalition with the CKP.
  • Also frustrated by the little headway made by the “collaborationist” BNP, and by a nationalist Austrian state government actively rolling back protections.
  • Has a considerable Russophilic element

Low German Party (Niederdeutsche Partei, NDP)

  • Agrarian party that advocates for the interests of “Low Germans”, whatever that means. Like 99% Protestant. Wants more Federalism, protections for Protestants, and the Low German language protected. There are a few strands:
    • Low German federalists, who want more autonomy for Low German states. This is the vast, vast majority of them.
    • Low German separatists, who want an independent “Low German” (usually Hannover, Oldenburg, and Holstein. Occasionally other stuff) state. This eventually gets squashed as the NDP becomes more mainstream. Contented by a long term demand for a unified Low German state.
    • Prussian unionists, who want to secede and join Prussia. This faction is pretty quiet for a while, and is content advocating for peaceful relations and reunification.
  • Uses a very unique black-white-red flag, until the Prussian associations of the black-white part cause them to scrap it in favor of the blue-white-red Schleswig-Holstein flag with a Sachsenross in the middle.
  • 1849–54: After its humiliation, the restored Prussian regime increasingly insists that Prussia is not merely a failed claimant to Germany but a distinct historical state with its own political destiny. At first this is mostly dynastic and constitutional, not linguistic.
  • 1853–58: Reuter/Groth-type literature becomes more politically charged in Hanover, Oldenburg, Holstein, Hamburg/Bremen, etc. This is still primarily a cultural movement at first.
  • 1857–60: A royal commission standardizes a written form based on East/Brandenburg Low German and related northern forms; school primers, patriotic songs, army publications, and some local administrations begin using it. The state calls it Preußisch, while Germans outside Prussia mockingly call it things like “Staatsplatt.” Initially a bit of a novelty, this becomes a very conscious state-building project once Otto von Bismarck comes to power. Apart from the obvious benefit of shutting pro-German Liberals up, the logic is sound: If the Low Germans of the Empire accept “Prussian” as a distinct identity, they drift towards Prussia. If they recoil and accelerate the construction of their own “Plattdeutsch” identity, they have stopped treating “German” as one obvious nation. All Bismarck has to do is keep a friendly face to keep most of the resentment aimed at Vienna/Frankfurt, and it's a win-win.
  • 1860–64: Imperial northern Protestants increasingly resent both Habsburg/Catholic dominance and Prussia’s attempt to monopolize Low German identity. Local electoral leagues appear first, then the party in 1865. Adopts a broad policy of detente towards Bismarck’s Prussia, despite being annoyed to death by Staatsplatt.
  • Late 1860s: Standardized “Prussian” becomes compulsory or semi-compulsory in primary schools and expands into local administration/army life. High German remains important for diplomacy, higher education, and interstate business for a long time. The backlash hardens the NDP’s support for its own “Plattdeutsch” language.
  • 1872–74: Following considerable pressure, Wilhelm I dismisses Chancellor Bismarck, ending the détente between Germany and Prussia. After the 1873 Vienna crash, Bennigsen’s FKP shares the blame, and its Protestant voters across the Low German countryside go over to the NDP, which more than doubles its seats in 1874. 
  • 1880: Talks to bring the NDP into Hohenwart’s government almost fell through, because nobody likes their stupid language and people would rather deal with a minority government than with Platt. Got a few concessions, though.

Prussian National Party (Preußische Nationale Partei, PNP)

  • Far-right party that advocates for the secession of “Low Germany” into Prussia. It is illiberal, militaristic, authoritarian, and admires the reactionary Prussian state.

Source maps:

German Confederation: HGIS Germany 

German Administrative District Boundaries: https://hgl.harvard.edu/catalog/harvard-germany-admin-1890 

Austria-Hungary: GISta Hungarorum 

Czech lands: Czoernig's dataset, which is sourced from Karel Kuča's CZ_RETRO project 

Demographics were estimates, loosely based on census figures.

I will post the tools and graphics stuff I built to make the map/posters/simulate results soon on github after I clean it all up, but don’t expect it to be useful for much. HTML is the worst thing I've ever learned.

Also ignore munich having a random straight line through it or Vienna looking like abstract art thank you


r/AlternateHistory • • 1d ago

1900s Permian Cosmonauts' Wikipedia page

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595 Upvotes

The scenario is based on the Silurian hypothesis and the question, what if another species before us build their own civilization on Earth. In this scenario a species of Permian synapsids achieved exactly that. Over 250 million years later, humans find some of their remains in space.


r/AlternateHistory • • 14h ago

Pop culture Sega Microsoft exclusivity deal of 1997-2014 (part 2)

2 Upvotes

This is part 2 of my alt history and once again it’s very sonic focused but still enjoy :D

After the success of sonic adventure 2 Sega would make a sonic heroes witch is a better made in this timeline they also started developing a few handhelds games (in this timeline Microsoft made an Xbox handheld witch rivals the psp).

Sega also makes a shadow the hedgehog game which is much better than otl shadow the hedgehog having better writing and not having to beat the game 10 times to get the final story and with its success shadow would have his own side series to run along the mainline sonic games.

Sega wanted to have sonic be smash bros but they were unsure do to their deal with Microsoft, so they asked Microsoft if sonic could be smash and to Sega’s surprise they said yes and so sonic would be in smash bros.

So with these successes and with Sonic’s 15th anniversary coming Sega would announce a new sonic game they were currently working on code named project solarus this game would be the biggest sonic game yet and be a bit of a stop gap for a few years being developed by both Sega and Microsoft.

So Sega started releasing small teasers about project solarus hinting at a certain silver hedgehog and purple cat that fans had theories about who were they are they the with the good guys or not but there question would be answered in 2006 sonic adventure 3 being basically sonic 06 but being considered one of the best sonic games ever introducing both silver and blaze in this timeline (Blaze is not from a different dimension in this timeline and is the princess of soliana).

After a big game such as this Sega would put the sonic games on a bit of an hiatus but for a while to focus on their other franchises but before that Sega would release silver the hedgehog a game that takes place in the future that he sonic and shadow saved and fans wouldn’t be short on content during the hiatus as an anime would be made and would loosely adapt the adventure game while also introducing a few original characters and storylines (this anime is this timeline’s equivalent to sonic x and would have pretty good English dub)

So things for Sega have been pretty good and let’s hope that this will continue.


r/AlternateHistory • • 13h ago

Post 2000s Eurasian Spheres of Influence: What if Russia was a hyperpower?

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0 Upvotes