r/politics • u/PoliticsModeratorBot š¤ Bot • 2d ago
Discussion 2026 Midterms News and Updates, October 12 - October 18 (Thread 6) | Live Discussion
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Election News and Updates
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Election Resources
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Past Threads: Thread 1, Thread 2, Thread 3, Thread 4, Thread 5.
Other Event Threads
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u/ToeSniffer245 Massachusetts 1d ago
You can tell that Russian bot farm attack worked because I havenāt seen any āthere wonāt be midterms, heās going to rig it and you guys are fuckedā comments so far
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 1d ago
Did Ukrainian strikes on Yandex data centres cause Russian bot activity to plummet? | Euronews
"According to an analysis of Cloudflare Radar data, automated traffic originating from Yandex's network fell by approximately 94% on Sunday compared with its average levels in the second half of September.
However, the figures also include legitimate automated traffic, such as search-engine crawlers, and do not establish whether Kremlin-linked social media bots were affected."
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u/FireNexus 15h ago
Iām wondering if the lack of the bot farms will collapse the GOP. I guess Brazilās presidential runoff will be the first test. But Iām curious if the data center strike was specifically intended to collapse Russian overseas supportā¦
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u/gergek 2d ago
Quiet day on Reddit... I wonder where all of the traffic went?
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u/Embarrassed-Pride776 2d ago
/r/news is down like 60% of it's normal traffic. It's contributors are mostly bots.
Yet I'm the one banned there for stating a literal fact.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 2d ago
Where did you read that their traffic is down that much? Reddit shows a weekly rolling average publicly.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 2d ago
Funny, but the daily subreddit traffic is within normal parameters.
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u/BabyYodaX 4h ago
So I watched parts of that town hall. I thought Talarico did great.
That town hall also reminded me that a huge chunk of American people (the undecided folks) who go out to vote and, I am trying to be kind, are fucking idiots.
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u/snoo_spoo 4h ago
I often wonder how many of them are real people and how many are plants.
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u/Isentrope 1d ago
An interesting non-partisan poll of economic issues shows that blue collar workers now oppose tariffs at the same rate as service workers and white collar workers. Democrats are now handily leading Republicans on cost of living concerns as well:
https://bsky.app/profile/crampell.bsky.social/post/3mxrkxagxf227
There seems to be a lizardman's constant issue though as 7% of respondents claim that inflation has made their cost of living lower.
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u/Raspberries-Are-Evil Arizona 7h ago
Talerico is proving what a great candidate he is.
CNN is really trying to fuck him with this. But he isn't having it.
"Actually my question isn't about the economy, why are you ads so mean?" Seriously?
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u/RangerDangerfield I voted 7h ago
And the next āeconomyā questions being about energy and election security.
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u/dowomenfindmenhot 5h ago
I know people imagine "undecideds" being thoughtful or moderate. In reality, they are like this lady. A feminist that wants every illegal immigrant deported no matter what.
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u/lovemypups21 5h ago
When she said she cares about womens rights, the democratic ladies face said it all. You canāt claim to be a feminist and vote for Texas republicans. Itās like chickens for kfc.
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u/SodaCanBob 5h ago edited 5h ago
The one lady who wanted houses available exclusively to people who were born in Texas was also weird. She just shows that a big chunk of these "undecided" people have no idea what a senator even does. Yes, Talarico should push for affordable housing. No, he will not give you a coupon for an affordable house just because you happened to have born in the state.
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u/tresben 5h ago
Iāve always said this. Undecides arenāt some moderate that sits down at the table and thoughtfully makes a pros and cons list of candidates. They are low information, sometimes voters that have conflicting and contradictory views and ideas and go off vibes or something they heard or whatever.
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u/FumilayoKuti 6h ago
Some people have no idea about politics or moderation, like if you support trans rights trying to trap a Democrat that will protect you significantly more than republicans is so unwise.
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u/madhatv2 6h ago
Talarico is coming across really well here.
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u/ExpertConsideration8 I voted 6h ago
Absolutely.. he is really well rounded and his passion and empathy come across.
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u/redvelvetbuttercream 6h ago
I like James Talarico! Heās really impressed me tonight. Iām (longingly) watching from Alabama wishing a worthy Democrat would (one day) stand a snowballs chance of winning in this stateā¦.sigh.
Heās giving Obama vibes.
Texas - do the right thing!
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u/madhatv2 6h ago
Heās giving Obama vibes.
Big time. He's definitely studied his speech cadence.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 1d ago
Post by @atrupar.com ā Bluesky
Jake Tapper: "How worried are Republicans about Paxton losing? Well, we've apparently reached a brand new campaign stage where the VP is insinuating that the Texas Democratic Senate nominee, James Talarico, is gay ... not exactly the sign of a party convinced they can win on their record or ideas"
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u/quackquackx 7h ago
Talarico is just so impressive. He's the one I would be most disappointed about if he doesn't win.
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u/Melch12 7h ago
Canāt imagine any rational person choosing Ken Paxton over him.
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u/quackquackx 7h ago
Literally. I think Talarico is a generational talent, and he'd look amazing against any Republican candidate, but the gap between him and Paxton is astronomical.
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u/SodaCanBob 6h ago
"We shouldn't use modern terms when talking about god"
I'd bet money that this mar-a-lago face lady isn't reading her bible in Hebrew, Greek, and/or Aramaic.
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u/flysheepfly Texas 6h ago
I knew the Israel question would come up and I believe he answered it perfectly. Talked about the deaths of Palestinian children and also attacked the Israeli government and not the Israeli people themselves.
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u/CupcakeAteMyFaceOff 2d ago
Early voting starts in Georgia this week! I hope all my fellow Georgians take advantage of early voting before the election! If you don't already, make a plan to vote, and invite to take your friends who otherwise probably wouldn't vote without a friend going with!
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u/Competitive-Box61 2d ago
Just a reminder that the president raped children and the republican party refuses to hold him accountable for these vile crimes.
That alone is enough to vote blue from now on. It's just common sense.
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u/Isentrope 2d ago
President Trump is returning to Georgia this Friday to campaign and energize the Republican base. This puts some pressure on Rick Jackson, who is in a tight race for Governor and has tried to portray himself as comparatively independent of the President in a state that Trump narrowly carried by 2 points in 2024 and where Republicans have all-but given up on flipping the Senate seat held by Democrat Jon Ossoff.
https://bsky.app/profile/bluestein.bsky.social/post/3mxp2d5slqc2i
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u/dowomenfindmenhot 6h ago
Hakeem Jefferies telling US senators what to do seems like an odd concern. Its great this guy cares so much about qualified voters!
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u/Titansfan9200 North Carolina 2d ago
I know a lot of people here don't do twitter anymore which is understandable, but holy shit it really is insane how much nicer it is since the bot farm attack.
The whole thing reads as something too wild to be true but it's insane how little right wing BS is getting spewed on there right now.
Used to be you could watch someone post something like "watch this: Donald Trump lost the 2020 election fair and square" and within minutes you'd have tons of replies upset over it and refuting it. Yesterday people did the same and not a peep. Just so wild to see.
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u/Isentrope 1d ago
Marist's final Texas poll shows James Talarico up by a narrow 47-45 margin with likely voters over Ken Paxton in the Senate race and a 4 point margin with registered voters. Their previous poll was using registered voters only and had Talarico up 6.
Incumbent Governor Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa by 4 with likely voters and 1 with registered voters in this poll. Previously, Hinojosa led by 3 with registered voters.
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-in-texas-october-2026/
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u/Isentrope 17h ago
A (presumed final) UT/Yougov poll of Texas has James Talarico leading 50-47 over Ken Paxton and Dems winning Governor and Lieutenant Governor by a point each (49/48 Gov, 48/47 Lt. Gov). In 2022, this poll's final result was 55/44 Abbott and the actual result was 54/43.
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u/Accurate_Dust_6024 16h ago
sitting here on the edge of my seat for Katie Zacharia's next press briefing like a new episode of GoT or Severance is about to drop
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u/Many_Estate1581 16h ago
I wouldnt be surprised if she breaks down the first time she actually gets pushback or has to take a hard question
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u/Hourlypump99 11h ago
Iām hearing my fellow Black folx are really coming out to vote down there in Georgia!
Hope the momentum continues!
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u/tresben 7h ago
Talarico is gonna be president some day. Dudes got that way about him thatās so likeable and easily relatable to so many people. Few have that oratory and personable skill of being genuine and heās got it
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u/TheJessKiddin 7h ago
imagine saying "we struggle with the idea that it's the women's right to choose" with a straight face on national tv. jfc
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u/Apprehensive_Disk_16 6h ago
I wish our politicians didnāt have to kiss these nut jobs asses. There is separation of church and state, plain and simple. Her religious beliefs should have ZERO impact on our government or other peopleās healthcare. Thatās all that needs to be said.Ā
And here goes this other whack job talking about religion. Why are they talking about religion??? I give exactly zero fucks who is Catholic or Christian or whatever.Ā
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u/snoo_spoo 4h ago
The people who "struggle with the idea that it's the women's right to choose" never seem to understand that once you've said the state has the right to choose, that sets a precedent that would allow the state to require abortions just as easily as prohibiting them. I wonder how that realization would affect their "struggle".
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u/tresben 5h ago
Talarico has that personability and relatability that will lead him to the presidency. He makes people who were disagreeing with him and trying to get in the mud with him come away being like āoh I kind of like you even if I donāt agree with youā. He makes it almost impossible to hate him. Very few have that. Obama did which is how he rose above the racist history of this country.
He also brings such a positive energy to politics. Basically didnāt mention trump or Paxton (until the end) and just talked about what he would do to help people. The main ābad guyā was the billionaires which is a common enemy among basically everyone in the country who is struggling to get by. But the message was still always positive and uplifting.
He also makes progressives think heās progressive and moderates think heās moderate. And thatās because heās constantly hitting talking points 70+% of the country agrees with. So itās easy to feel like heās fighting for you and agrees with you because he shows it.
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u/thegreaterfool714 California 1d ago
My Dad when talking about voting be like, vote your piece of the pie. Also calls himself independent. Also āI distrust both sides equally.ā
Reality: Has voted straight Democrat since Bill Clinton, even if at time theyāre not the most friendly to his career lol.
Iām watching cross out candidates that tried to privatize and defund the local library. Itās glorious. May he never change
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u/Contren Illinois 1d ago
Had me in the first half, your dad talks like a delusional Republican but is really a delusional Democrat (complimentary)
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u/runawaydoctorate 1d ago
I married an "independent" who votes straight D. I think some people just want to feel special.
ETA: I think, in my husband's case, he's just nervous about political parties in general. He's an immigrant and where he's from, party membership can come with some baggage. But he does, also, on occasion, like to feel special.
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u/Hourlypump99 19h ago
I canāt think of any industry Clinton wasnāt friendly to their industry.
The economy was doing amazing then.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 2d ago
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u/blues111 Michigan 2d ago
Learned his mistake from the Wisconsin supreme court race it seems lmfao hope dems still attack on this point aggressively that elon is trying to buy elections again for RepublicansĀ
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u/Isentrope 2d ago
The crypto superPAC mentioned earlier is now also upping its buy attacking Sherrod Brown in Ohio. They started out the cycle announcing $30M in ads but this has been upped to $45M. The reason for the attacks is reportedly because Dems refused to sign on to crypto legislation this term.
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u/circuitloss Arizona 1d ago
What can be done when the area you live in is politically competitive but your local party is asleep at the wheel?
I'm in Southern Arizona, a very "purple" area, and while Ciscomani has signs everywhere, and there are anti-Mendoza signs on every corner, there are almost zero signs for democrats. The best "attack" the local party can come up with is a "Juan loves Donald" sign, which is pretty lame when the GOP is outright lying about their opponents on every street corner.
There are Andy Biggs signs everywhere, but literally none for Katie Hobbs. What's going on, and why is the Pima County Democratic party so toothless?
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 1d ago
Local parties are the people that show up and do things. My honest answer to the question you've posed is to join your local Dems and get them to do the things that you want them to be doing.
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u/Zepcleanerfan 1d ago
There is no bar to entry if you want to help these candidates.
I'm sure you can find an office and get signs and put them up if you think that it's a good idea. I've done it myself for years.
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u/snoo_spoo 1d ago
Isn't Hobbs leading by double digits? Maybe you don't see signs because no one feels compelled to push them.
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u/Isentrope 1d ago
Speaking at an event with Speaker Johnson, Rep. Monica De La Cruz says "I don't care what the polls say because my God is bigger":
https://x.com/jeremyswallace/status/2110165587926339598?s=46
TX-15 voted for Trump by 18 points in 2024 but only 3 points in 2020. It is 81% Hispanic, and Democrats recruited an A list candidate in Tejano music star Bobby Pulido.
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u/HonestLee89 9h ago
This Could Have Been a Debate- James Talarico will have a live townhall tonight at 7 p.m. CST on CNN
CNN: āBoth candidates were invited to participate in the CNN Jubilee town hall. Talarico accepted. Paxton never replied to us.ā
https://bsky.app/profile/teamtalaricohq.bsky.social/post/3mxu4ult2rn2y
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u/flysheepfly Texas 7h ago
Talarico has so far really been killing these questions with superb answers.
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u/wakalakabamram 7h ago
Talarico gives white Obama vibes. I love it!
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u/mlspdx Montana 7h ago
This is honestly the best description Iāve heard about him
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u/mak23414235532 5h ago
"What's important to me are women..." as she still is contemplating voting for woman-rights champion Paxton
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 2d ago
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u/Isentrope 2d ago
Michigan Republican gubernatorial nominee John James intends to rely in part on "word of mouth" to get his message out in the final weeks of the campaign after the RGA reportedly cut off funding for his race.
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u/blues111 Michigan 2d ago edited 2d ago
https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/2109624812633030982
New - Senate poll - Minnesota
šµ Peggy Flanagan 47%
š“ Michele Tafoya 43%
KARE 11/Minnesota Star Tribune (A+) - LV - 10/7
More weak senate polling in Minnesota...is Peggy Flanagan just a weak candidate? Id be shocked if she lost since its a Trump midterm in Minnesota but its been consistently tight so it looks like it'll be closer than people may have expected, or is it because of all the stigma with Tim Walz?
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u/Isentrope 1d ago
Senate Republicans are pouring a whopping $8M into Nebraska's senate race through their superPAC as there are growing signs that the race is getting competitive:
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u/Isentrope 1d ago
AZ Highground has Katie Hobbs up 51-34 in the gubernatorial race and Dems up in every other race, including superintendent. This may be why Dems and Reps alike are putting money into AZ-02.
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u/blues111 Michigan 1d ago
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2110134443147169858
The Hill: Private polling in the Oklahoma governor's election shows a tied race.
āDemocrats have seen polling showing the governorās race is tied,ā said one Democratic operative.
Oh yeah...we really jumping the shark now lmfao granted we haven't really seen any polling for this but come on
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u/IM_KYLE_AMA 1d ago edited 1d ago
Okay, yeah, there is either a systemic polling error across the nation or republicans are generationally fucked. I am inclined to believe the former.
Edit: Cook Political Report seems to believe there is something going on because they moved the race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6145770-cook-political-report-shifts-four-democrats/
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u/Isentrope 16h ago
Marist College accidentally released its poll results for tonight of Iowa, which reportedly show Josh Turek leading Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson by 3 points with likely voters and 7 points with registered voters, while Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn by 7 points with likely voters and a wider 11 points with registered voters.
The generic congressional ballot in the poll is R+3 with likely voters and R+2 with registered voters, which the poll notes is a 5 point improvement from their last poll. Important to note that Iowa has 3 light red seats that voted for Trump by 4, 8 and 10 points, and a deep red one that voted for Trump by 32.
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u/Many_Estate1581 16h ago
Why was it an accidental release? As in why would they not release it?
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u/Contren Illinois 15h ago
Accidental releases are usually when data gets dropped before the press release and other writeups are done. Either Marist or Siena had a similar early release where they dropped Texas-Gov alongside a bunch of Senate polls, when they meant to keep the Gov race separate to go with other Gov polls.
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u/TheBlueBlaze New York 15h ago
On the 2024 campaign trail, when Vance was asked how a second Trump administration would bring costs and inflation down, he linked it all to energy prices, saying that if they brought those down, the cost of pretty much everything else goes down.
Two years later, energy costs have gone up, bringing inflation up with it, all because of a war of choice that doesn't have a definitive end in sight. Even the most politically disengaged that's being at least a little honest with themselves can see that.
The only reason Republicans continue to have any sizable support, despite breaking multiple core campaign promises, is due to a combination of three things: Sports-like dedication to a party like it's a team, fearmongering about what the left wants to do to them, and their belief that if the government is weakened enough, a libertarian meritocracy is not only possible, but would result in them being at or near the top, and everyone they don't like being below them.
Republicans have ceded both their power and opinions to an administration that is openly corrupt, actively incompetent, and contemptuous of their own supporters. Anyone who votes on policy, promises, and results, and not on fear, reassurances, and vibes, has no reason to vote Republican this year.
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u/Isentrope 15h ago
Vivek Ramaswamy accidentally cut an ad with him shaking hands with a registered sex offender:
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u/Isentrope 14h ago
Former Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan, who led the move to impeach Ken Paxton and subsequently lost his speakership, claims that Republicans believe they will lose 8-10 seats in the Texas House this November, with a number of other races in the margin of error. Republicans currently enjoy a 26 seat majority (88-62), and Democrats would need to pick up 14 seats to flip it.
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u/Line47toSaturn Europe 14h ago
I'm not familiar with the Midterm elections, do some states renew their local parliament or are you referring to the Texan seats at the House of Representatives? The numbers seem pretty high to me, 150 seats would be a third of the HoR...
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u/runawaydoctorate 13h ago
This is the state level government, yes, but we don't use the term parliament for any governing body over here. Most state legislatures are constructed in a manner similar to the federal legislature: two houses, one called a senate and the other a house of representatives, though the term lengths aren't necessarily the same and the numbers of members varies. The one exception is Nebraska, which has a unicameral state legislature. Some states run their state-level elections concurrent with the federal election cycles (even-numbered years). Others, like Virginia, do it in the odd-numbered years.
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u/Isentrope 14h ago
Yes, almost all states will have their state legislatures up for reelection during midterms, though sometimes their upper house/senate is on a different schedule or staggered so only half are up every election to mimic the federal senate. The lower house is usually up every 2 years like it is for the federal House of Representatives.
Each state has different numbers of representatives and Texas' is actually quite low compared to its population of 32 million. The state with the most lower house representatives is New Hampshire, which has 400 for 1.4 million residents.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 14h ago
"Texas House" refers to the lower chamber of the Texas legislature.
"US House" would refer to representatives sent to the lower chamber of the national Congress.
isentrope was referring to the Texas House of Represenatatives above, not Representatives from Texas-based US House districts.
Most US states have at least one state legislative chamber on the ballot in even years. All US House seats are up for reelection in even years.
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u/CeresSubroutine 7h ago
What a fuck-ass independent question to Talarico. "Hi I'm here about the economy but my question is why are you so mean to Ken Paxton?"
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u/FumilayoKuti 7h ago
That was goddamn ridiculous. But thus far there is no way the Paxton team is seeing this and not shitting their pants. Talarico is wildly likeable.
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u/Isentrope 2d ago
In a case of actual triage on the D side, HMP is pulling its ads from TN-05, as it no longer sees a path for Chaz Molder to flip this deep red seat anymore. This was a super reach, though, and we should be starting to see Dems do more of this kind of triaging to focus on their realistic path to a House majority in the coming days:
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u/Isentrope 1d ago
Another insane ad by Dan Osborn:
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 1d ago
The ad, for those that don't want to click, is an ad by Osborn accusing the Republican (Ricketts) of being very pro data center. The ad is, uh, stylistically punchy.
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u/Isentrope 1d ago
GOP superPAC CLF is up with a defensive buy in FL-22 worth $2M. The seat is newly drawn and Trump +10:
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u/Isentrope 1d ago
Republicans are reportedly triaging TX-28 (Cuellar) and pushing the money to Tx-34 (Gonzalez), both offense targets with TX-34 in particular being made vulnerable through redistricting. Both were Trump +10 in 2024, but Cuellar's seat was Biden +10 in 2020 while Gonzalez' new seat was only Biden +3. Cuellar's seat is 91% Hispanic while Gonzalez' is 78%.
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u/HonestLee89 14h ago edited 13h ago
"Lifelong Texas Republicans tell @ jeffzeleny theyāre backing Democratic nominee James Talarico for Senate over Ken Paxton: āThe Republican Party has been hijacked.ā
*This CNN reporting tracks with what Iāve seen on the ground in Texas.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 13h ago
Text of the above link (which also has an attached CNN clip): "Lifelong Texas Republicans tell @ jeffzeleny theyāre backing Democratic nominee James Talarico for Senate over Ken Paxton: āThe Republican Party has been hijacked.ā"
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u/TheCr1msonShadow 10h ago
Every time I see shit like this, I just have flashbacks to every left leaning pundit swear that thereās big cracks forming in the Trump coalition. āTHE DAM IS ABOUT TO BREAK!!!ā.Ā Ā
Hard to take it seriously after theyāve voted for him 3 fucking times.Ā
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u/Isentrope 13h ago
Rep. Ashley Hinson addresses the Jeffrey Epstein vote head-on in an ad:
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u/IM_KYLE_AMA 13h ago
"This week, I had to explain to my boys, 'No, mom does not protect pedophiles'"
What an incredibly wild thing to have to say.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 12h ago
Also, it's intentionally misleading (that is, a form of lie). She has directly taken votes before to assist with the Epstein coverup. As the Community Note on her tweet containing the ad puts it:
"Hinson voted aye on the final Epstein Files Transparency Act but did not sign the discharge petition to force earlier consideration and voted yea on procedural motions that blocked related release efforts.
https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2025289
https://clerk.house.gov/DischargePetition/2025090209
https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2025194
https://www.thegazette.com/news/politics/iowa-s-congressional-delegation-votes-to-release-epstein-files/article_9d2aeb2e-86b1-5897-987b-662010d6ce72.html
https://politifact.com/factchecks/2026/oct/02/winsenate/ashley-hinson-votes-epstein-files/"
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u/Impressive_Stuff7245 13h ago
I am from Louisiana first day of early voting is next Tuesday Oct. 20. I cannot wait to vote and Iām taking off work to get it done. Letās make some changes people.
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u/ARoseandAPoem 12h ago
As a Texas whoās been burned one to many times, Iāll withhold judgment, but if ever it was the right set of circumstances to get me a democrat senator this is that election.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 2h ago
I am just learning that Talarico did an AMA in this subreddit 8 years ago: Iām James Talarico, an educator and proud Democrat running to become the first millennial elected to the Texas House of Representatives! Ask Me Anything!
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u/BabyYodaX 12h ago
That Texas Marist Poll was an R+14 sample??? And it had Talarico up 2?
I refuse to believe polls anymore, but also..DUDE.
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u/ScotTheDuck Nevada 10h ago
Donāt forget the Republican pollster who was cooking so hard that they had to bust out the decimal point to show a Paxton lead instead of a 47/47 tie.
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u/Isentrope 10h ago
The pollster in question (Quantus) even got called out by Rasmussen for weighing to a partisanship that was a bit too Republican by their estimation:
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 2d ago
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2109692103114506723
"Sean Spicer: President Trump is heading to Kansas next week to campaign against Adam Hamilton for US Senate."
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u/Isentrope 2d ago
Crypto superPAC is going into NE-SEN with $2.4M to shore up incumbent Republican Senator Pete Ricketts:
https://x.com/BrendanPedersen/status/2109754540513775849?s=20
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u/Isentrope 2d ago
Trump shared internal polling of OH at his rally just now suggesting Husted is outrunning the "generic ballot" by 2 and Ramaswamy is outrunning it by 1:
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u/Isentrope 2d ago
Schumer's superPAC is up with $2M in spending on KS-SEN and...$1200 to TX-SEN (maybe to pay for making an ad?):
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u/Top_Journalist_3197 2d ago
If you want to stop people's support, stop clicking on links that support their ideas. Not clicking on it means they have no votes in the algorithm. So when fake reports come out no one will support them.
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u/Timpa87 1d ago
Katie Zacharia sounds legitimately awful... Wasn't she from Fox News? Sounds like some random pulled off the street reading the news
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u/Isentrope 1d ago
Polls roundup:
Cygnal, a Republican leaning but generally accurate pollster, has the generic congressional ballot at 51-42 (D+9).
A Recon/Siena poll of Texas shows some tightening, with Talarico up 48-44, down from 49-43 but within the margin of error. Abbott now leads 48-47 over Hinojosa, where previously Hinojosa led 45-44.
SUSA has the NC-Senate race at 54-40 Cooper.
University of Houston has Harris County only (home of Houston) with Talarico leading 58-36. In 2018, Beto carried this county 58-41, but Allred only carried it by 10 in 2024, and Harris carried it by less than 6.
SUSA has a congressional district poll of Trump+12 MN-01, which Tim Walz used to represent, showing the Democrat narrowly leading 46-44 over the incumbent Republican.
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u/Isentrope 1d ago
HMP is up on the air with three dozen ads, including AZ-02, KY-06 and MT-01 for the first time (also OH-01, but CLF triaged it so maybe the ads get cut). Those 3 seats are reaches for Ds and the mid-230s/low 240s in a hypothetical Dem majority if they were to flip.
https://bsky.app/profile/the-downballot.com/post/3mxrhxwq73k26
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u/coolmon 1d ago
I would love to see an upset in the Florida senate race. I know it's unlikely, but Angie Nixon would be a great senator.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 1d ago
I would love to see her in Congress. Like, look at this: Post by @podsaveamerica.crooked.com ā Bluesky
"Angie Nixon: They say, I want to abolish prisons and I want to defund the police. Why would I want to do that when I want Donald Trump and Ashley Moody locked up in jail?"
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u/Isentrope 1d ago
The DGA says it has contributed $10M to support Keisha Lance Bottoms in the Georgia gubernatorial election. This is likely in outside spending, though, since Georgia has campaign contribution limits, and Republican Rick Jackson is personally very wealthy and self-funding his race, but it's a considerable investment that might help KLB overcome her narrow gap in the polls, especially as Ossoff is leading by wide margins in the senate race.
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2110075447044399150?s=20
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u/Isentrope 1d ago
Republicans are now triaging CA-13, an offensive target in the California Central Valley that I believe was the last to be called in 2024 where Democrat Adam Gray took out John Duarte by a couple hundred votes. The district is a bit bluer now and they likely didn't see enough movement to justify the considerable investment they had there. They are removing $4.45M but adding $260K here.
https://bsky.app/profile/purrtah.bsky.social/post/3mxryg7cfbk2t
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u/IWantPizza555 1d ago
The 2018 midterms had the highest turnout since 1914 with 122 million people. I hope we can beat that number this year.
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u/Hourlypump99 1d ago
I donāt think 122 million people voted in the 2018 midterms, it was a lot but it wasnāt that many.
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u/Ok_Ranger4867 3h ago
Talarico has a really good shot at this, but democrats NEED to get to the polls!
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u/Isentrope 2d ago
NYT has a piece reporting on how much Elon Musk has invested in the election so far, with records evidently showing that he has contributed $276M to GOP efforts to hold the Senate, including ads and get out the vote efforts.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/12/us/politics/elon-musk-midterms.html
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u/FireNexus 15h ago
Havenāt been around here since they bombed the data center. Has there been a sudden downtick in abject stupidity that makes the moderation teamās ānobody is a Russian botā policy provably as stupid as it has obviously been for nearly a decade now? Because my understanding is the nature and timing of the fallout might well completely swing the midterms away from the GOP, to the extent online discussIon affects voting behavior.
This is not an attack on anyone in particular (though I have certainly tussled with the mods more than once over the fact that their policy was essentially to pretend the bots didnāt exist and make the mere suggestion that someone was one a bannable offense). So I am not in violation of any subreddit rules.
I just ask because theyāre not going to be gone forever. And if one data center strike suddenly makes inarguable how poisoned the sub (and entire internet) has beenā¦ Perhaps we need a plan for their return?
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 2d ago
jefries.house.gov: Joint Democratic Leadership Statement on the Raid on Ilhan Omar's Home
r/politics thread linked here
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u/Isentrope 2d ago
Kyle Kondik from Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball mentions that the Trump administration deploying Chris Grant to save Roger Marshall in Kansas is reminiscent of a similar effort in 2014 (for the same seat) to save long time incumbent Pat Roberts.
Roberts faced a scandal in his bid for a 4th term when the NYT found evidence that he didn't actually live in Kansas (a similar scandal forced Dick Lugar out of an Indiana senate seat in 2012 that Democrat Joe Donnelly picked up). Roberts won his primary against a divided field with less than 50% of the vote, and Democrats actually had their candidate stand down in the general in the hopes of propping up Independent Greg Orman to beat Roberts.
Roberts ultimately won by 11 points which was much wider than the polls predicted, but that was a very bad year for Democrats (even the more conservative GCBs place the environment today as being about 12-14 points bluer) and also preceded the trends which are starting to show up where Kansas has started to shift blue.
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u/Isentrope 1d ago
The House GOP superPAC and Trump's superPAC have now triaged IA-01 and NJ-07. Meeks in IA has always been a very weak incumbent, underperforming Trump repeatedly there even as the district has gotten redder. Kean Jr. in NJ had a long unexplained absence in Congress that attracted national attention and is also in a relatively blue seat. These superPACs have also pulled out of offensive targets in OH-01 and MI-08.
https://x.com/shanegoldmacher/status/2109977675217477912?s=46
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 1d ago
Post by @aselrod.bsky.social ā Bluesky
"From now to the midterms, Iām going to use my column to talk about races where Democrats could pull off upset wins. This week, Iām starting starting with my home district: AR-02
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u/Isentrope 1d ago
Republicans have triaged NV-03. The Republican candidate in this race, Marty O'Donnell, is known for composing the music for Halo and Destiny. So far today, we've seen Democrats triage AZ-02 (and TN-05 last night), and Republicans triage NV-03, OH-01, MI-08, IA-01 and NJ-07.
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u/IM_KYLE_AMA 1d ago
Marty O'Donnell turned out to be such a disappointing person. I used to love Halo and played it near habitually in HS and college. His music was such a cornerstone to that experience. Now when I hear it I feel nothing but sadness over what he eventually became. I know it is important to separate the art from the artist as best as you can, but in his case, I am never going to be able to. Once MAGA, always MAGA.
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u/ToeSniffer245 Massachusetts 11h ago
Hot take: a Dem winning in Ohio, Kansas, or Alaska, or a combination of two of those is more likely than Collins losing. Maineās Stockholm syndrome with her is just too much. Would love to be proven wrong, though.
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u/TheCr1msonShadow 11h ago
People here are coping, sheās barely behind in polling and has consistently overperformed her polls. She will hold that seat until she dies at this rate.Ā Ā The only hopium is that her margins are shrinking with each election.Ā
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u/Hourlypump99 10h ago
The āCollins won by 10 points in a blue waveā about her 2020 election is a little bit of a misnomer.
Collins barely scraped past 50% in 2020 to the Dem opponentās 42%, but that 8% margin of difference was filled with a lot of left leaning third party candidates that may have voted Dem otherwise.
And 2020 didnāt end up being as big of a blue wave as 2026 is projected.
That being said, Jackson being this close with her in polling isnāt good for him.
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u/TheCr1msonShadow 10h ago
Collins won by a gigantic margin in the year that Obama got a supermajority. She consistently overperforms polling. The end results are what matters.Ā
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u/ButterUrBacon 9h ago
Not a hot take, they are going to win Alaska and Ohio. I think they are projected to have a bigger edge there than in Maine
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u/Isentrope 10h ago
Former GOP Congressman and former state party chair Ken Buck has crossed party lines to endorse Phil Weiser for the Colorado gubernatorial election over his party's nominee Victor Marx. Buck was considered a "Tea Party" candidate when he was first elected and was a member of the right wing House Freedom Caucus when he served in the House.
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u/Hourlypump99 10h ago
Ken Buck was MTG before MTG.
A hardcore Trumper who broke with him very publicly.
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u/Opus_723 9h ago
I'm keeping my expectations low on Texas, but with all the talk about Talarico I had not actually noticed that the polling for the governor's race is only like +2 R.
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u/Isentrope 9h ago
The difference in Talarico and Hinojosa's vote share has massively narrowed even as Abbott seems to be doing a bit better than Paxton.
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u/Isentrope 9h ago
Fox News has a new national poll with Democrats up 54-45 with registered voters, from 51-44 in September. However, among those "certain to vote", Democrats have declined from D+11 to D+6. President Trump's approval rating is 36% in this poll, the lowest of any Fox poll in either of his two terms.
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u/Isentrope 9h ago
A new SurveyUSA poll of Minnesota's Senate race shows Peggy Flanagan leading Republican Michele Tafoya 45-42. In their last poll, Flanagan and Tafoya were tied.
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u/Opus_723 3h ago
The only thing that still worries me at this point is that the absurd ad buys the Republicans are doing end up working somehow and we don't see it yet because the polls are a week or two behind.
Dems are usually pretty competitive or even have the upper hand on spending so the Republicans suddenly being roided out on money and airtime makes me nervous. I think I still have PTSD from that shitty sex changes for prisoners ad in 2024.
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u/dokikod Pennsylvania 3h ago
I was so impressed with Talarico in the CNN Town Hall with Erin Burnett. He is so genuine and authentic. He doesn't have have a fake or dishonest bone in his body. I could listen to him for hours. He has a real shot to be the next U.S. Senator from Texas. That would be incredible.
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u/NumeralJoker 2d ago
I genuinely wonder how different this board will feel today without Russia's datacenters being active.
Imagine if they were down for most of the month...
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u/bigdoinkloverperson 1d ago
The difference throughout reddit and the internet is kind of astonishing
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u/Isentrope 2d ago
Democratic Senate superPAC HMP is winding down and canceling remaining ad buys in North Carolina while putting down an additional $2.5M in Iowa and $7M in Texas. Its Republican counterpart SLF last week canceled remaining ad buys in North Carolina, and the GOP candidate Michael Whatley had paused certain ad buys as well as an indication that the GOP no longer saw a path to victory there.
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u/Isentrope 2d ago
A Mason-Dixon poll of MN has Democrat Peggy Flanagan up 47-43 over Republican Michele Tafoya, a bit wider than a poll in early September from SurveyUSA that had both candidates at 42 in a tie. While the polling has tightened considerably in this race, neither party's superPACs have spent there yet.
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u/ThickGur5353 9h ago
Cook political report now rates the Michigan Senate race as a toss-up. This is not good news for the Democrats. This should be an easy win for them.
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u/Opus_723 9h ago
He looks as fine as ever in the polling averages. He's had a 3+ point lead for like a month now.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 2d ago
Look at this C-SPANmaxxing queen:
- 9:45 AM EDT Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) Visits Small Businesses, Part 1
- 10:19 AM EDT Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) Speaks to Reporters, Part 1
- 10:44 AM EDT Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) Visits Small Businesses, Part 2
- 11:10 AM EDT Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) Speaks to Reporters, Part 2
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u/swagmond27 1d ago
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2109791520283082864Ā Is this data correct?
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u/Isentrope 1d ago
Important to note that the modes of voting have not quite settled yet. Prior to COVID, Democrats actually lost mail votes most of the time in states that didn't have all mail voting, often quite badly, because mail was relatively rare and usually for retirees, the military and overseas voters (the latter is a bit blue but the other two are traditionally red). Where Dems did much better was in person early voting and election day. COVID prompted a sea change to this, with the mail vote becoming extremely blue (in part also because President Trump actively discouraged Republicans from mail voting) while in person early voting and election day became deep red.
In every election since COVID, we've seen that the mail vote is getting less blue. Republicans are finally dropping their COVID-era hesitation to mail vote and Trump is actually encouraging mail voting this time a bit more. Democrats this year are also supposedly a bit fearful that their mail ballots will get lost with the USPS rules and may be switching to election day or in person early voting. Until Michigan starts its early in person voting, we won't have a sense of whether Democrats are actually sitting it out or if in person early votes are just cannibalizing some of the mail voting.
Another state where people are fretting is Ohio, where some areas show that Republicans are showing much more strength in early in person and mail voting. It's important to note that Ohio does not actually have voter registration - identity of a voter as a Democrat or Republican is a function of which party's primary they last voted in. As primary voters are only a fraction of even registered Ds or Rs in most states, it's not a very precise proxy for partisanship like in Michigan which actually does have party registration.
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u/blues111 Michigan 1d ago edited 1d ago
So Michigan doesnt technically have formal party registration which means posts like this have to model what they think the turnout is based on how the counties reporting voted in the past (in this case 2024) so id be careful reading the tea leaves on early vote and VBM tbh especially since we cant guarantee in 2026 those counties will vote the same as 2024
Is it "accurate"? Tough to say lots of variables at play because its making assumptions of who returned these ballots based on where they voted... there is also other factors like people who traditionally vote dem in those areas could be more motivated to vote and since its a black box you cant tell, or more dems might be planning to vote in person to avoid any shenanigans from USPS
im not here to cope post though ive said on multiple occasions it would not shock me if Abdul underperformed hell it could actually be more republican than the modeling believes which would suck but we genuinely dont know till they start reporting results
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u/snoo_spoo 1d ago
Agreed, although it could also go the other way. This is such a bizarre election climate--widespread financial stress plus unparalleled corruption--that predicting who will turn out is even more of a guessing game than usual. I think there are lot of very unhappy people who'll use their ballots to vent and we'll see a big turnout, but that's just my guess.
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u/Isentrope 13h ago
Snoozefest in CT according to local pollster Quinnipiac, with Lamont up 20 points in his bid for a third term. There was a small polling miss there in 2018 where a number of polls had Lamont winning by mid-high single digits and he ultimately won by 3, but his reelection was pretty safe after the ARPA bailed out the state's pension system.
https://bsky.app/profile/usapolling.bsky.social/post/3mxu55bf24k2p
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u/bakerfredricka I voted 13h ago
I'm in a neighboring state and I have never been so worried about a midterm election in my LIFE! š«
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u/Isentrope 9h ago
The NRCC is placing $500K into a coordinated ad buy for Jenny Costa Honeycutt in SC-01:
https://bsky.app/profile/greggiroux.bsky.social/post/3mxulywwfik27
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u/Isentrope 7h ago
Safety and Affordability PAC, which is R aligned, is dropping a whopping $3.6M to support Republican Jay Feely in the AZ-01 House race.
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u/SpaceElevatorMusic Minnesota 3h ago
This ad from the Dem nominee in Mississippi for Senate is probably really effective: Post by @50fifty50.bsky.social ā Bluesky
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u/Efficient-Youth-6985 2h ago
people who plan to use their vote to help ukraine in two weeks (or to help anything else) - why are you waiting? you can call your reps TODAY and demand something be done. now is the time you have maximum influence over their actions.
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u/Isentrope 2d ago
WSJ reports that Ken Paxton attended a 2024 NYE party in Dubai with a woman who is not his wife and which included two fugitives from US justice:
https://bsky.app/profile/wsj.com/post/3mxptkuzbnu2k