r/financialmodelling • u/CatDogBear008 • 7h ago
Student DCF: is my discount rate killing these valuations? What am I missing?
I'm a finance student and I recently made a DCF model so I could stray away from plain Excel. I built it for my investment club pitch, then ran it on four companies. All four came out well below their market price, and I'm trying to figure out if that's a real signal or a problem with my model.
| Company | DCF value | Price | Gap | Long-run margin the price needs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micron | $642.59 | $914.13 | -30% | 61% |
| Apple | $148.68 | $342.96 | -57% | 85% |
| Amazon | $139.85 | $254.08 | -45% | 29% |
| Tesla | $22.97 | $367.16 | -94% | over 100% |
Assumptions:
- Base year: calendar 2025, rebuilt from quarterly SEC filings (Apple and Micron have September fiscal years)
- 2026E and 2027E growth: Yahoo Finance analyst averages, then my own judgment
- Risk-free rate 5.19% (10-year Treasury), equity risk premium 4.5%, tax rate 21%
- Betas: Apple 1.1, Amazon 1.3 (regression gave 1.5), Tesla 1.8, Micron 1.6 (regression gave 2.35, inflated by the 2026 memory surge)
I didn't tune any inputs to close the gap, I just used a standard template. So my questions:
- Is a 5.19% risk-free rate plus a 4.5% ERP too harsh for mega caps right now? Would you use a lower ERP or a normalized rate?
- For Micron, should I trust the regression beta or adjust it? And how do you value a cyclical stock in what might be a peak year?
- Apple needing an 85% margin seems crazy. Is that a sign my terminal value is off, or is the market just paying for something a DCF doesn't capture?
Any feedback is appreciated, I'm still learning!
And yes, I know some people say DCFs are not the best tool out there. Lmk if anyone wants to see the tool.