r/boxoffice • u/ChiefLeef22 Best of 2024 Winner • 12h ago
Domestic Box Office Weekend Forecast: STREET FIGHTER ($22-25M+) and YOU CAN SEE EVERYTHING ($8M+) Aim to Stand Out on Sleepy Mid-October Frame
https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office-weekend-forecast-street-fighter-you-can-see-everything-whalefall-sense-and-sensibility48
u/Timformation 12h ago
Ryu vs. Elizabeth Holmes vs. a whale vs. period drama sisters. This is Fortnite in 2026.
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u/sphinxof1981 12h ago
Nathan Fielder and Elizabeth Holmes opening higher than Tom Cruise would be absolute insanity
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u/ChiefLeef22 Best of 2024 Winner 12h ago
Its not that crazy. Fielder is the last big Hollywood star. He also has a business degree from a top school so, that adds to his appeal at the box office.
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u/whiteshark70 Walt Disney Studios 12h ago
Not only does he have a business degree from a top school, he also had really good grades from it too
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u/alterector 11h ago
And he also has a commercial pilot license, so of course people flock to his movies.
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u/HairyBubbleAss 3h ago
I like Nathan fielder but we hear “last big Hollywood star” about once a month
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u/ILoveRegenHealth 1h ago
He was a genius who got accepted into Seoul National University (SNU) and was a top student!
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u/macgart 11h ago
It feels like the marketing for digger truly was a disaster. It had literally none of the prestige a movie shot on VistaVision should have had. There’s no reason it couldn’t have at least gotten a decent gross in line with OBAA (ish).
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u/littlelordfROY Warner Bros. Pictures 9h ago
So much blame thrown towards marketing always, but never saying "the movie itself "....
The movie is weirder than one battle and the reviews ended the chance of 20M start
This same "marketing hurt the movie" line got used on one battle too....
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u/scattered_ideas 9h ago
They started off with the wrong foot with that career retrospective trailer.
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u/littlelordfROY Warner Bros. Pictures 9h ago
That wasn't the first marketing material and to act that it could have had stronger box office without that is ridiculous
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u/scattered_ideas 9h ago
That was the first full trailer. The one where he's dancing with the shovel then goes out to the balcony was just a teaser, with the logo and title reveal.
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u/littlelordfROY Warner Bros. Pictures 9h ago
The first full trailer was back in July
The Tom Cruise thing was called a retrospective trailer and the actual footage for digger used was very much a teaser trailer sized amount
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u/scattered_ideas 7h ago
True, but a teaser is still the first impression most general audiences will have with the movie. And they were playing it in the summer too, not just the Maverick re-release.
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u/Century24 Columbia Pictures 5h ago
The first teaser was attached to Avatar, so I think we might be putting a little too much weight on that.
I think the subject matter didn't immediately click with audiences, and once the angle offended critics (especially those still in the religion of art speaking truth to power), that turned off casual audiences who go by the Rotten Tomatoes percentage.
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u/matty25 12h ago
As a Nathan Fielder fan, Now You Can See Everything is my own personal Avengers: End Game
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u/ChiefLeef22 Best of 2024 Winner 12h ago
Now You Can See Everything
That's what they should call the 4th Now You See Me movie
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u/NightFire45 8h ago
The guy punks his audience a lot and basically constantly points out how fake YouTube, reality TV and it's ilk are. Kind of wondering where he's going with this movie?
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u/Veiyr 11h ago edited 11h ago
I mostly lurk this subreddit but im surprised to see You Can See Everything be only 8 mil; it seems to have a stranglehold on my local theaters (all the independent theaters, with one needing to open new showings after all 8 main showings this weekend in the smaller 140 person theater sold out, the main AMC, and several other chain theaters) in ticket sales this weekend far more than Digger and even Primetime did, I'd be shocked if it didnt hit double digits
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u/andalusiandoge 11h ago
Probably not playing on as many screens as Primetime or Digger, and the 3 hour runtime probably limits showtimes. Looks like it will have a lot of sold-out showtimes, though.
$8 million is still insanely good as the floor for a documentary opening.
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u/Shrimply-r1 11h ago
Eh it’s not a wide release. It’s not in many theaters near me. The main huge theater that does have it still hasn’t sold half the seats for tomorrow’s showing which I thought was weird since other peoples markets say they’re sold out for multiple days already. Not even a large auditorium either it’s the smallest in the building. I expected it to be sold out by now
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u/doubtofbuddha 9h ago
I've only really checked the theater closest to me in my (large) city and it is completely sold out there. I didn't get my tickets, so I am going to have to wait for a weeknight, probably.
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u/Shrimply-r1 9h ago
The 3p listing here has about 1/3 full. 6p is like 4/5 full. 10p has 2 tickets sold. Interesting to see how different each market is. Only one other theater within 20mi showing it. I’m going tomorrow at 3
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u/Alternative-Car8221 10h ago
After all the virality and reviews you would think they would do a wider release.
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u/SPFeveryday Studio Ghibli 11h ago
I think it’s extremely popular in coastal cities (I’m in LA, the anticipation for it is thru the roof) but maybe not middle America.
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u/loyal_achades 10h ago
I’m in DC, and when I bought tickets yesterday everything was very full already.
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u/fxaix00 10h ago
It looks incredible but is limited in release and is not a movie people are going to see immediately. Doesn’t exactly scream blockbuster or anything.
I think 8 million for a movie that looks like this is decent. I expect word of mouth to be incredible once people start hearing about the supposed twist that happens. I’m stoked for it
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u/poofyhairguy Illumination Entertainment 9h ago
I am in a major city (top 15 in US) with 5 Cinemarks in the metro (my metric because I have Movie Club). of those only 2 are showing this movie and both of those have a VERY limited number of showings all in the smaller theaters.
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u/HooptyDooDooMeister 10h ago
Where I live, You Can See Everything is almost sold out. Street Fighter is mostly empty.
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u/chaser676 10h ago
Meanwhile, of the 7 theaters in my small city, there's not a single one playing it. It not being a very wide release will be the biggest obstacle.
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u/IDigRollinRockBeer Screen Gems 5h ago
7 theaters in one small city? My whole county has 3 and one is playing it. Next week another add it
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u/Waste_Track_4524 4h ago
It’s three hours long, a documentary made by a comedian who’s never made a movie like this before, about a person who’s not well liked, and a marketing campaign that started about five weeks ago.
I agree I think it can get higher but a movie like this doesn’t have to hit a slam dunk opening weekend. If it’s an award season player it’s going to leg out and make money all winter.
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u/DonnieRodz 5h ago
Personally, I am over Nathan Fielder’s “Oh! Who’s working who?” Schtick.
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u/mccarvillecolton 5h ago
Ok?
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u/DonnieRodz 4h ago
OP is surprised it’s drawing so low. I gave my reason for not immediately wanting to see it.
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u/ChiefLeef22 Best of 2024 Winner 12h ago
Street Fighter (Paramount)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $22 — 32 millionYou Can See Everything (A24)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $8 — 13 millionWhalefall (Disney)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $5 — 9 millionSense and Sensibility (Focus)
BOT Domestic Opening Weekend Forecast Range: $4 — 7 million
I'm taking the over on YCSE. What a great start
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u/auteur555 11h ago
How the hell is that 3 hour documentary opening that high
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u/East_Leg_2129 9h ago
Nathan Fielder
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u/auteur555 8h ago
Barely even heard of this guy
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u/East_Leg_2129 8h ago
Well he has a very large and devout fanbase. I highly recommend watching Nathan For You and The Rehearsal and you’ll see what all the fuss is about.
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u/Head_Razzmatazz_3756 8h ago
I guess other people must have different lives and experiences than you
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u/Vadermaulkylo Apple Studios 12h ago edited 11h ago
I’m shocked that Whalefall is currently projected to be so low. I’ve seen this trailer before every movie recently and each time it gets an extremely vocal reaction from my audiences. In a positive way too.
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u/PinkCadillacs Pixar Animation Studios 11h ago
The claustrophobia is likely turning people off of the movie.
Just watching a movie about someone in a small space for so long can be triggering for many people.
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u/scattered_ideas 9h ago
Personally, it just doesn't feel like it will be that engaging for a full length movie, or at least not enough to make it out to the theater. There are too many movies out right now! I gotta watch You Can See Everything and The Devils this weekend. I'm booked solid.
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u/Katicflis1 11h ago edited 9h ago
Its also just kind of an obvious story?
Whale eats him. He either survives or he doesn't. The end.
Like... its not gonna be a fun movie or a movie thats interesting outside of a 'does main character get crushed or acided to death before whale poops him out'
I guess the big plot twist might be the whale dying, but still ... not like we are gonna get a matrix or sixth sense plot twists out of this one.
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u/Poku115 11h ago
Personally the trailers I've seen, I dont really understand what the movie is supposed to be or the hook of it, as far as I understand, its a guy who grew up with his father teaching him how to hunt whales? And then a whale eats him?
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u/newjackgmoney21 11h ago
The whale eats him is "the hook" and he has to escape. The first trailer showed the getting eaten part. I'm not sure how else they can sell the movie but I'm not surprised it'll open to 7-8m.
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u/nickelst92 11h ago
Given its potential $7m-$8m opening weekend, I wonder how good its legs will be, given its ~$50 million production budget.
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u/newjackgmoney21 11h ago
Once a movie opens that low you know the showtimes get cut quickly. Maybe, it can get to 20m domestic
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u/Poku115 11h ago
I guess it just ain't for me
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u/newjackgmoney21 11h ago
Going by the weekend projection its not for many people. I'm sure in 3 months it'll be trending on Hulu/Disney +
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u/NovelNothing5374 11h ago
How don’t you understand? It’s pretty basic. Whale swallows him he has to survive, he probably has some flashbacks of his life lessons from his father while he’s contemplating life in a whale. It looks good and reviews seem to be positive.
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u/Poku115 10h ago
I dont understand whats interesting about that.
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u/NovelNothing5374 10h ago edited 10h ago
To each their own, I’m a sucker of man vs nature type movies. It looks well shot and acted so it’s definitely piqued my interest, won’t be able to watch in theaters since I don’t have time with a baby but definitely will be watching on PVOD.
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u/MidnightIAmMid 9h ago
I mean, man vs nature or survival films are pretty popular or at least have been in the past. It may not be my favorite genre, but a lot of people do find those stories very interesting.
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u/PeculiarPangolinMan 9h ago
I dont really understand what the movie is supposed to be or the hook of it
Man gets eaten by whale. It's like a super clear hook. It's like the epitome of a high concept.
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u/Equivalent_Lunch_944 11h ago
It kinda gives one of those parody movies that they make in 30 Rock. Feels like a meme
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u/WebHead1287 11h ago
It takes a special level of stupidity to see that movie. I am that special level.
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u/TJ_McWeaksauce 5h ago
Yeah, I've been bombarded by the trailer on Hulu and before almost every movie I watched over the summer. I've probably sat through the trailer dozens of times by now. Multiple local theaters have big Whalefall props. Plus, I've seen multiple posts about Whalefall on movie subreddits, which I figure are from marketing people or bots.
If Whalefall disappoints in theaters, it won't be because it lacked marketing. I don't want to pay $15 to watch it in theaters, and I figure a lot of people share the same sentiment.
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u/badassj00 10h ago
Predicting 10 million plus OW for You Can See Everything, a slight increase next weekend, and stellar holds through Thanksgiving.
It’s set to be one of the biggest BO success stories of the year, up there with Obsession (in terms of profitability, not total gross).
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u/Key-Payment2553 11h ago
Would be good for a Elizabeth Holmes documentary tracking for A24 that’s pushing for an documentary feature award season push
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u/Most-Following3765 11h ago
YCSE will overperform and have great legs. Word of mouth is already great and gonna get better. 100% on RT. Nuff said
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u/Appropriate-Leg7435 11h ago
What’s the highest ever opening weekend for a documentary?
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u/piclesdepepino 9h ago
Justin Bieber: Never Say Never with 29M, but that was a wide release. I think this might be the biggest opening for a documentary with limited release.
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u/sparrowmint 1h ago
For documentaries that don't include concert films, I believe it is Fahrenheit 9/11 which made a rather wild $24 million opening weekend in 2004.
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u/Salad-Appropriate 12h ago
When was the last time a documentary got over $10M not just Opening Weekend, but in general (Domestic instead of Worldwide)
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u/piclesdepepino 9h ago
After Death made 11M in 2023. Before that, They Shall Not Grow Old with 18M and Free Solo with 17M in 2018.
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u/HooptyDooDooMeister 10h ago
Fahrenheit 9/11 grossed over $100M.
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u/mundane_wor1d 7h ago
Only 10 documentary movies have grossed 100m WW
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u/HooptyDooDooMeister 7h ago
Interesting that there are basically only 3 kinds of documentaries that make money:
Concerts, nature/IMAX, and 2000s Michael Moore.
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u/pizzacrys Jerry Bruckheimer Films 12h ago
Street Fighter doing $20M+ in a sleepy October weekend would be a solid win. Curious if word of mouth can push it even higher.
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u/East_Leg_2129 9h ago
Not with its budget.
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u/Mariothemexican 7h ago
It’s only 82 mil tho
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u/East_Leg_2129 7h ago
It needs at least 205 million worldwide to break even. It will likely not get past 60 million or so domestic and if 50% of its total is International (as is typical for such films), that brings it to just 120 million worldwide (which is right in line with where Mortal Kombat 2 ended up and with a much higher opening.). So ya, this won’t be close to profitable.
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u/Mariothemexican 7h ago
Mk2 got 129 but was not a good movie and was rated r and people got bad taste from mk2021 and the past few games
Sf is pg13 mixed to good reviews with not much people saying its downright Horrible movie.sf6 is well liked. And don’t think there’s many other movies competing with it. So I’m thing maybe 175
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u/WebHead1287 11h ago
Over under on You can see me beating Digger?
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u/Shrimply-r1 11h ago
Definitely will beat digger. Opening weekend will destroy it alone despite not a wide release
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u/Lurky-Lou 11h ago
People should see Whalefall solely because they had the restraint not to name the main character Jonah
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u/ohyesveryundateable 9h ago
Extremely bullish on YCSE's prospects. A24's trick to goose their NY/LA limited release numbers is to place them in AMC's XL theaters (they did this for The Moment, Tony, etc.) Every showtime for opening weekend is nearly at capacity. More auditoriums will be added and those will sell out, too - no one wants to be spoiled on the big surprises.
Genuinely hoping for a $10 mil+ opening for this three-hour doc. Would make for another great 2026 success story along the lines of Obsession.
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u/TraditionalHelp980 8h ago
You Can See Everything will have Fahrenheit 9/11 numbers. I even think 200M is a possibility.
This will make crazy numbers.
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u/The_Lutter 12h ago
One people realize that the hero from the Miracle Over the Mojave is the same person behind You Can See Everything those estimates will double.