r/WarhammerCompetitive • u/w0158538 • 14h ago
40k Event Results Win Rate Wednesday - 40K 11th Tournament Results/Data - Week of October 12th 2026
Hey all,
I gathered all the tournament results from BCP for last week, including all Tournaments with at least 20 players and 5 rounds.
All the data is here on my site:
https://warpfriends.wordpress.com/2026/10/14/40k-11th-meta-stats-from-october-12-2026/
Please take a look and let me know if you have any suggestions (I know the site is not pretty đ I focus more on the Youtube side of things) And feel free to check out my youtube video for indepth breakdown of the stats!
Also I created Army Report cards for every army, detailing all the relevant information, check them out here:
https://warpfriends.wordpress.com/quick-reference-army-meta-cards/
****META CARDS ARE BACK****
Thanks!
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u/Bhizzle64 14h ago edited 13h ago
respect to that one thousand sons player who went 5-1 with warpmeld pact of all detatchments. As a fellow tzaangor enthusiast Iâve been trying to make it work by just havenât had any success.
edit: The list name is âthe bleatings will continue until morale improvesâ LOL. Super interesting list with 18 spear enlightened as whatâs seemingly the primary driver of the list alongside 3 mutaliths and magnus. VERY interesting.
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u/SkeletonJakk 5h ago
That name is absolutely fantastic. I love looking at all the funny names people give their lists when I check listhammer.
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u/StackedCakeOverflow 12h ago
One of the most cursed, spiteful lists I've ever seen and yet I am mesmerized
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u/Fozzbael 13h ago
Space marine results seem pretty in line with the predictions from as far back as the initial codex leaks
Herohammer terminator builds, especially the deathwatch variant, appear pretty broken, with a 70-80% winrate over 100+ games, while most other things look pretty middling?
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u/Antisense_Strand 10h ago
It's also the case that stronger players are likely gravitating to the perceived immediately strongest build, which is past 70% WR with a statistically relevant sample size. If it gets hit, I assume we see something else pops up, whether that's like Iron Hands Dreadspam or Speeders or generic hullspam. The lowest end of the faction is still doing marked better than Marines typically do, which indicates it's a systemic issue rather than single sheets or detatchments.
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u/SkeletonJakk 5h ago
Blood angels are doing pretty good with sanguinary guard spam and Iâve seen some brutalis and death company dreadnought heavy lists, which is really refreshing actually.
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u/WalkRealistic9220 11h ago edited 11h ago
I wouldn't call 54.8-80% middling personally. Most other factions have less than 50% and keep in mind most people are playing space marines which skews the data by a lot
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u/Carl_Bar99 9h ago
The official gold standard according to GW is between 45% and 55% win rate, anything outside of that is an area of concern.
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u/w0158538 14h ago
Space Marine players coming out of the wood works this week with the new Codex and datasheet chanages...
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u/h3ro88 14h ago
Why is space marine so much stronger then the spesific chapters?
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u/Imaginary-History-30 14h ago edited 13h ago
Ultramarine special units, I really wish these wins came with an army list to see what people were running.
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u/Dorksim 13h ago
Go to listhammer.info to see all the X-0 and X-1 lists from the last week. Its a simple way to get an idea what people are running.
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u/sarvothtalem 13h ago
Or you can just parse the data and pull out on the specific chapters, its not hard, i do it...
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u/Dorksim 13h ago
I cant help but feel that with all the potential detachment combinations that we're quickly going to get to the point that much of this data is too small of a dataset to be useful.
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u/Global_optimization 11h ago
Yes, this has been my thoughts too with the new codecies. Isn't it better to just list the single detachments by themselves without combos at this point. At least the statistics of which ones are picked is still interesting this way and win rates will be more meaningful.
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u/Devilfish268 14h ago
Looks like it's another week of guard near/at the bottom. Who'd have thunk a shooting army that needs buffs to hit on 4+ would be struggling.
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u/Alaskan_Narwhal 13h ago
I mean votann are looking good. And we suffer the same affliction as guard
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u/Devilfish268 12h ago
They have a lot more tools for dealing with that. Better melee in berserks and jacks, conversion and land forts don't care, hearthguard are hitting on 3's ect. Plus good deepstrike options and generally better detachments.
2
u/Random-guy-199 13h ago
Forgive my dumbassery, but votaan hit on 4s natively aswell? Why do you think IG are doing so poorly vs vitaan?
Ive had to shelves my IG in my local meta of orcs, marines, custodes and necrons
1
u/Alaskan_Narwhal 13h ago
IG ebbs and flows. It's a very high skill army. Not very durable and you need to buff stack. Right now I think it's because they don't have great access to ignore cover.
Votann has lots of mobility guard lacks (ironically). This means we can play very well into recon, prio, and even take and hold with the army wide -1 w.
We also have a few very high damage units but that's not unlike guard.
I do think some points adjustments are needed but the meta has shifted into massive tuff bricks of guys and guard can't do that easily, so they need to fall back on tank spam for reliable damage. Votann just has more tools to deal with this list. Votann is a bit of a counter meta army atm
Also chaff infantry just seems bad right now. Not only for guard. Lots of units now have multiple profiles or can clear a 10 man guard with just its side guns.
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u/Bowoodstock 10h ago
Votann is definitely a counter meta army. We have probably the best anti-terminator weapons in the game right now with our SP conversion beams; sustained hits on a S7, AP-2, D3 weapon is their worst nightmare. The hekaton version even scares assault terminators.
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u/Alaskan_Narwhal 10h ago
Hehehe I love hearing the groans when I get matched into the terminator player. My current recon list is 9 bikes, 2 defenders, and 18 conversion beamers
But it's also bad, it's over reliance on a single datasheet, the -1 makes hg hit like wet noodles and beserks don't particularly love hitting and wounding on 4s
But yea I love beamers
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u/Bowoodstock 10h ago
Even when they put the -1 damage strat out, the sheer number of attacks hearthguard put out is hilarious.
I feel like we're in a good place if your opponent is forced to choose "which unit do I use this in, knowing the other is going to get absolutely wrecked"
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u/MayBeBelieving 2h ago
Guard is going to need a full rework at this rate. Even mass hull spam isn't really getting wins, especially with the SM tide right now. I suspect though that this trend will continue through at least Spring 2027, especially if they're waiting for Codexes.
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u/Laruae 6h ago
I don't disagree with your sentiment, but Orks prove that hitting on BS4+ isn't the end of the world.
What is does mean is that GW needs to account for how much cover harmed some factions, just like it needs to figure out what to do with GSC and Eldar.
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u/giuseppe443 1h ago
the problem is that guard has to use their faction rule to hit on 4s on an army where most of their important weapons are D6 attacks, way to swingy to relay on it. And with the stuck in melee penalty and cover stacking its not unusual to have guard tanks hit on 5s if not 6s if they get battleshocked and stay such.
Ork can also fall back on their melee, something guard basically only has bullgryms for
2
u/Devilfish268 42m ago
Their shooting is typically stronger but balanced to hitting on 5's. So when they're hitting on 4's it's a buff. Guard seem more balanced around hitting on 3's with their orders.
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u/Antisense_Strand 13h ago
Second week Drukhari has had Legends of Saga and Song included for some reason
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u/Big_Owl2785 12h ago
Hey at this point I take everything I can get
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u/Antisense_Strand 12h ago
I mean, Drukhari was at +54% wr on the week, solely because people aren't forcing SSA and losing over and over with it. Maybe we'll see people actually playing good stuff more going forward.
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u/Big_Owl2785 12h ago
we both know that we wont
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u/Antisense_Strand 11h ago
I'm genuinely optimistic. I think Drukhari has some solid builds that hit Orks/Marines/Custodes all reasonably well, and that the faction is really open right now for templating to the pilot's preferences. People have had time to actually get reps in on stuff too, now, and aren't as likely to just default to a 10th E playstyle.
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u/Sylanec 11h ago
What is a better option over SSA in your opinion?
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u/Antisense_Strand 10h ago
Depending on what you have for a collection and what you expect to see, I think RSR + Tools, KC + EoS, KC + Tools, RW, SoS + EoS are all probably going to have a higher floor and ceiling for singles. Teams can get weird and have stuff like double Covens or Covens + EoS work as a blunter.
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u/Repulsive_Profit_315 4h ago
Every once in a while someone like Cody Jiri goes to a small GT and just cleans it up and we get a good winrate.
Drukhari are cratering at basically every super major or major.
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u/Antisense_Strand 4h ago
Oh, we absolutely are struggling to produce, but it doesn't help that like 75% or more of lists taken to events are SSA EoS Recon, which continues to just be a really bad pick for the current metagame.
That's why I'm specifically happy that we have 3 different detatchments (KabCart, SoS, RW) as the best performers this last week, as maybe it'll cause others in the faction to like actually try and play other shit.
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u/SpaceWolf_Jarl2 7h ago
I hope SW get a bit better. I like the new book a bit. There is still exploring to do. SM might need a look, Deathwatch is a bit too efficient. PtF Wolves being at least at a similar standkng (even if bad) is not the worst for me.
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u/imjustasaddad 13h ago
Every marine player coping that they arenât playing the most braindead busted codex in ages
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u/FartCityBoys 13h ago
So 53% wr and 6th in overrep is the most busted codex in ages now? Do you remember any Eldar releases? Orks came in hotter and that was only a month agoâŚ
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u/Beckm4n 12h ago
If you play Assault Brethren DW and Ironstorm/Termi Detachment Take and Hold it seems to be pretty braindead with a 73% Winrate this weekend.
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u/FartCityBoys 12h ago
John Lennon took a loss with that combo man it needs to be tuned down but itâs not brain dead/ world beating.
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u/Beckm4n 12h ago
Well the amount of defensive buffs you stack on your Termis combined with the fact that your game plan in T&H is kinda easy makes it slightly braindead, don't you think? The numbers speak volumes. That's Aeldari Index level of broken.
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u/FartCityBoys 12h ago
Not even close to Eldar index - did you play against it? You got merked by towering before you could even move. Then the book needed triple nerfs on Ynnari and Fire Dragon builds. They need to tune down the DW terminators while the meta responds, their releases are always overturned but this isnât âholy shit emergency patch triple nerf this entire codexâ good.
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u/Beckm4n 11h ago
Should they stay at THAT WINRATE they def need emergency nerfs. And who gives a f* how broken Eldar were 3 years ago? People play the game now and Marines need fixing.
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u/Emotional_Option_893 11h ago
You literally brought up aeldari index and then told dude why is he mentioning something from 3 years ago lmao
-7
u/WalkRealistic9220 10h ago
This is actually stronger than Aeldari. Aeldari killed you but this is just braindead do nothing and win. Its 100% an emergency fix for literally everyone other than space marines
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u/FinancialComment8578 10h ago edited 10h ago
Index Eldar were also completely brainless. Towering made LOS irrelevant and you used your pool of automatic 6s to trigger devastating wounds on high-damage weapons (which spilled over) and just declare "take that unit off the table" without even rolling dice. And because you could use overwatch on indirect fire and titanic units you could delete units in your opponent's turn without even rolling dice. It wasn't just a high win rate army, it was one of the easiest armies to play in the entire history of 40k.
(And, as always, it had its apologists. I remember getting raged at and downvote spammed for saying that Eldar were way stronger than SoB miracle dice because it doesn't matter if your whole-game dice pool is smaller when it's front-loaded and you win in one turn.)
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u/WalkRealistic9220 9h ago
Of course, but you could kill them even though you had to hide everything. This is invuln -1d -1w casino that still kills everything. Even if you outplay them at every moment you will just lose
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u/FinancialComment8578 9h ago
You couldn't hide anything against absurdly cheap indirect fire/towering pre-nerf devastating wounds with auto-6s. A "hidden" unit anywhere near the middle could be auto-deleted so the only way to "hide" was to forfeit all scoring and lose anyway.
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u/WalkRealistic9220 11h ago
The winrate is vastly skewed because of so many space marines players both fighting and losing against eachother. their winrate against other factions is the real test
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u/Manbeardo 11h ago
Also, there are a lot of people getting away with running poorly-constructed lists that are being carried by one or two overperforming units. The lists that are actually optimized are nuts.
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u/WalkRealistic9220 10h ago
yep. 80% tournament winrate for 12 players using a near identical list is shocking and scary. I think this is the most broken codex release so far and they are not fixing it anytime soon with SM players pretending it's all fine because they lost a game
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u/SkeletonJakk 5h ago
I think a lot of stuff is okay, but things like the deathwatch terminators and Guilliman combo are vile and far far far too strong.
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u/imjustasaddad 11h ago
As stated
-2
u/FartCityBoys 11h ago
It seems like people were waiting for Marines to have an insane winrate this week, and since they didnât, were just pretending the entire codex is busted and mining the one broken unit (DW plasma terminators) so we can continue to pretend our priors were correct.
(I personally think Marines are a top 2 or 3 faction right now, but not âbrain deadâ levels of easy)
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u/WalkRealistic9220 10h ago
Ultra SM cope. You are living in your own bubble if you think they are fine.
The winrate is skewed because:
1 - They face mostly other space marines, forcing them closer to 50% than they are. The majority of players are space marines right now
2 - The non shit lists range from 54-80% Winrate in tournaments. That's scarier than aeldari index. When people optimize their lists it will be in another world by itself
I'm very curious to hear what you think is the top 1 faction? Do you think SM not having 100% winrate means they are not the strongest?
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u/FartCityBoys 9h ago
I never said they were fine, I said the terminators are broken?
Thereâs a big gap between âmost brain dead busted codex everâ as OP stated and what I actually said which is âtop army that needs the broken terminator stuff nerfedâ.
I guess you just make up what others say, move the goalposts, then rage post?
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u/AdamCDur93 6h ago
The Deathwatch detachment is stupid. Those terminators are too cheap and using it should lock you out from using other chapters. I think that would fix a lot. Everything else feels like it's just a few points tweaks and isn't too egregious. Calgar letting any unit benefit from the terminator detachment is probably stupid
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u/Zeus_One 14h ago
Pretty rough showing for Dark Angels. The Lion nerf hitting them hard.
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u/Alteisenrise 12h ago
People who knew the faction knew we wouldn't be a menace out of the gate, all the toys are just too expensive to make an army to play the game efficiently. Can be a menace in local metas without the tools to handle us but at the top table armies with as few as 6 activations just can't play the game.
Our best non-deatheatch showing was still darkflight/stormlance Ravenwing lists.
Plus most of the bone coloured terminators probability just got a mysterious call up to the deathwatch.
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u/TheDrunkenHetzer 7h ago
As usual everyone overreacted to the big scary datasheet and forgot the Lion had the 3++ 5+++ for ages and was sub still 300 points.
Now he's lost good FFs, doesn't buff anything but DAs units, and doesn't even have the Deathwing keyword so most of our strats don't affect him. He really didn't need to be 415.
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u/Codex_Sparknotes 7h ago
This is what every dark angels player was saying the whole time tbh. He dies just as easily as he did before, the only difference now is that he has a few more wounds and costs 150 more points
The reactions people had when his datasheet dropped were insane, I was sitting there like cool now he wonât die to assault intercessors in one round of fighting
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u/shaneskery 13h ago
What nerf? U mean points increase?
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u/Zeus_One 13h ago
Yeah the points increase.
-4
u/ch4ppi_revived 13h ago
It's not a nerf that is just his points at release
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u/seridos 13h ago
I mean, it can be. It's his new stats+abilities at the new points, vs the old stats and abilities at the old points. Probably most would prefer the old lion (in terms of playability), as he slots in better, is less of your army, and is more throwaway.
Imo they just need to make his aura adept is astartes instead of DA and it's probably fine. It's just,hrs an expensive beatstick,who has to be next to other expensive units to get lone op. In an army that's very expensive and elite. Also creates weird situations like gravis can't be made DA at all, no character can join them that has the keyword.
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u/ch4ppi_revived 12h ago
Yeah but no one talked about the datasheet. He talked about the point increase FOR the new the datasheet. You are just argue to argue here.
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u/shaneskery 12h ago
This comparison can't be classed as a nerf. Its a completely new sheet ina. Completely new codex that works completely differently. U can't nerf something that hasn't released yet...
0
u/Antisense_Strand 13h ago
While still low play rate, I'm happy to see Drukhari players succeeding on other stuff. A 5-0 with Kabalite Cartel, a 5-0 with Spectacle of Spite, and a 4-1 with Reapers Wager while SSA continues to not produce makes me hope that we'll see more actual experimentation within the faction at a competitive level, instead of just doomposting and jamming the same unsuccessful thing.
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u/WalkRealistic9220 11h ago
I thought space marines aren't broken though? :) Enjoy the 3 months of shit
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u/hitmangen 5h ago
But according to this and every other sub Lion should be 600 points and an auto win?
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u/ChurchofDubs 13h ago
Okay yeah that deathwatch-terminator detachment combo is a problem lol