r/Rockland • u/JZ_TwitchDeck • 8h ago
Discussion NY-17 is polling as a coin flip, and I genuinely don't understand how.
I know polls aren't a sure thing, and I have very little faith in them after 2024, but I can't understand how they're saying that the House race is a coin flip right now.
Even if you're a "traditional" conservative who cares about things like fiscal "responsibility", show me how Republicans have done anything in that vein. They're demanding OVER A TRILLION DOLLARS for the military budget, cutting social programs, raising healthcare costs, and letting Trump's unilateral tariffs raise all our costs. He's had eight chances to block Trump's tariffs, six chances to invoke oversight powers to stop Trump's unlawful war with Iran, and his party created Trump's SALT cap in 2017 to fund tax breaks for huge companies. Now he's promising to beg Trump to raise the cap that his own party put in place to begin with, and what, he thinks that's something to run on? He slapped us in the face and is trying to sell us an ice pack at a hugely inflated price.
Lawler's a Trump rubber stamp, and I'm sick of this "bipartisan" myth he keeps pushing. Anybody who's paying attention knows that congress members get a Hall Pass to dissent on procedural or inconsequential votes. But when the chips are down and it actually counts? He falls in line with the party every single time.
And when Trump says something insane - like leakers should be shot, and then gestures to the press pool saying they're "kind of like leakers"—just the LATEST in his unhinged behavior—what does he do when people ask genuine questions of how he feels about it? Dismisses it as "Orange Man Bad" and moves on. He's not fighting for us and he isn't going to start if we vote him back in.
Meanwhile, we get a genuinely good candidate in Cait Conley with a history of service and support for, you know, NORMAL policies that will actually HELP people in her district, and she's not beating the pants off Lawler in the polls?
Conley is such a strong opponent against Lawler that they don't have any legitimate subjects to attack her on. Now they're claiming she's a "socialist". How stupid do they think we are? A West Point graduate with a long service record and a history in counter-terrorism and election security suddenly wants to come for your wallet?
What makes it so ridiculous is the sheer hypocrisy: if you want actual examples of overt state control, look at the White House. Trump came to Intel's rescue in exchange for the federal government taking a direct 10% equity stake in the company (something he openly bragged about), and he dictates trade by executive decree without Congress. That kind of state-run capitalism and central planning looks a lot more like the Chinese Communist Party than anything Conley has ever advocated. And with Trump constantly running cover for Putin and cozying up to Beijing, the GOP's scaremongering about "Communism" doesn't mean shit.
I think Cait Conley is a great candidate. I believe she's going to fight to get things back on the right track. I understand that Conley doesn't check every single box for everyone. There are people who think she isn't progressive enough. But your vote isn’t a personal marriage or a 100% philosophical endorsement. It’s a tool. You aren’t asking “does this person align with me on every single thing?” You’re asking: “who is actually going to fight for the issues I care about and move the needle in the right direction?” Even if Conley wasn't your dream candidate in a vacuum, she is THE Democrat on the ballot right now, and this is an all-hands-on-deck moment to break up this rubber-stamp majority. Anything less is ceding power back to authoritarians.
Unless you want to continue to empower the White House to act with impunity and make life harder for all of us, I feel like it's a glaringly-obvious choice: vote Cait Conley in, vote out Mike Lawler.
