r/Padres • u/Fantastic-Research66 • 2d ago

Discussion Thread Non-tender Sheets?

Article came out today with 2027 arbitration numbers and has Sheets getting 6.3-6.5m next year. He's obviously a fan favorite but with a 97 OPS+ and no defensive value, seems like a clear non-tender for the Padres imo.

20 Upvotes

70% Upvoted

58 comments sorted by

40

u/bounty913 šŸ•ÆļøRALLY CANDLEšŸ•Æļø 2d ago

In AJ I trust. I think honestly if he's able to build the team with no outside pressure from ownership (boogie contract) he can build something incredible.

26

u/Fantastic-Research66 2d ago

Say what you want about Bogey, he put up 2.5x the WAR Kyle Fucker did this year

19

u/thatdude858 SD '71 2d ago

Bogey was MVP of the second round he showed up

2

u/Antique_Friendship97 1d ago

Hate to admit thatā€¦..but all true

22

u/Alone-Application-39 2d ago edited 2d ago

Not just Bogey, but I think the Yu contract and Manny extension were also due to pressure from ownership...although given Peter's health could certainly understand why.

And thank goodness Yu is such an honorable person who wanted to earn his contract, instead of just milk it while he underperformed, or was out due to injury.

8

u/GoldLive20 SD 2d ago

No player is milking their contract. No one forces a team to sign them. The injury risk for any player is clear.

4

u/secretlyloaded Lost In the Sauce 2d ago

Hosmer sure did.

1

u/GoldLive20 SD 2d ago

The Padres signed a mediocre player to a deal no one else would give him. He showed up every year and performed in a mediocre fashion. He didnā€™t quit on the team or stop trying, he just wasnā€™t good. That contract was completely the teamā€™s fault.

10

u/secretlyloaded Lost In the Sauce 2d ago

This is incorrect in every way you possibly could be incorrect. Hosmer had just come off a Golden Glove / Silver Slugger 4.4 WAR season with the Royals. He grabbed the bag and simply stopped trying when he got here. Famously became uncoachable. He had become so terrible that when he was released any team in the league could have acquired his services for basically nothing because he was still being paid by the Padres for three full seasons. Every team in the league said "nah, we're good."

I'm not sure how he could have milked that contract any harder.

-1

u/GoldLive20 SD 2d ago

With KC he had 3 terrible seasons, 1 poor one, and 3 good seasons. His underlying numbers in the good seasons didnā€™t support his output. Thatā€™s mediocre. Then he got here, a little older, the ground balls with eyes started finding gloves, and thatā€™s it. Being unwilling to change his approach isnā€™t phoning it in.

Gold glove? Really? He was never a good defender and no serious baseball person ever thought he was.

1

u/secretlyloaded Lost In the Sauce 1d ago

His underlying numbers in the good seasons didnā€™t support his output.

Meaningless word salad. What are you even saying? His numbers don't support his numbers? Mmmm, ok.

Maybe you didn't think he was good, but for a guy who was AL Rookie of the Year, won 4 gold gloves in 5 years, two silver sluggers, named an All Star, and got more than a few MVP votes along the way, it sure seems like more than a few people disagree with your assessment. Not every season was stellar, but your assertion that he was never a good player is patently absurd. I'm not saying he was hall of fame material but he once was a good player.

Being unwilling to change his approach isnā€™t phoning it in.

Having zero interest in improving your game is pretty much the definition of 'phoning it in.'

1

u/GoldLive20 SD 1d ago edited 15h ago

If youā€™re not familiar with how a high ground ball rate is a bad sign, youā€™re not very serious. He was pounding the ball into the ground even in his good years. Those grounders became hits in some seasons. Itā€™s not sustainable for a slow player.

SD and KC were the only teams who pursued him. If he was so great, where was the interest?

He had more mediocre and poor seasons before coming here than he had good seasons. If a 45% success rate is good to you, we can only be thankful youā€™re not in the front office.

He showed up. He played the same way heā€™d always played, a way that you say made him good. Why would he change it? He was stubborn, but he didnā€™t quit. Milking it is quitting.

-9

u/HealthOnWheels 2d ago edited 2d ago

I struggle with this take. If Yu wants to directly donate that money to something or someone he supports because he doesnā€™t feel he deserves it, thatā€™s one thing; but I donā€™t get lauding him for donating his salary to a multibillion, for-profit corporation.

-11

u/Nunyabiz_327 2d ago

I'm not so sure we should trust AJ. The guys has come up with some magical finds, but big picture he may have done some pretty significant damage

-He's created some pretty horrible contracts that will get worse over the next 6-7 years, and will be stuck with or pay someone to take.

  • He's decimated our minor league system, ao there us no help coming from the farm

  • The Man he put in charge did an amazing job managing our pitching staff, but he is not major league manager that wins championships. His lineup and roster management was horrible, it was just overshadowed with what he pulled off with the pitching staff. What that says is we have a great pitching coach managing our team.

  • He's made several all or nothing trades that have backfired. Until this year, he's made a huge splash in the free agents market only to watch them either suck or or walk away leaving us with no championship and having hurt our chances even more of getting one.

I think the dark side of his antics is going to rear its ugly head in the years to come. It felt good at rhe time, but long term damage is coming, and it started with hid inability to make a significant moves this past deadline, and it will continue this off-season

11

u/GoldLive20 SD 2d ago

Last year Padre fans were salivating over John Schneider and Don Mattingly as mgr ideals. Schneiderā€™s Blue Jays didnā€™t even make the playoffs. Mattinglyā€™s Phillies bounced in first round.
Stammen took a team with massive health and performance issues to WC1 his rookie year. Even legends like Joe Torre and Bruce Bochy had to learn how to manage, regular season and playoffs.

-6

u/Nunyabiz_327 2d ago

He did it with his management of thr pitching staff, as I gave him proper credit for.

I have no problem with managers having a learning curve, just shouldn't be at the major league level. Manage in the minors and/or coach in the majors before taking over full control of a team. He's done neither one.

Rarely does a manager manage a major league team as their first role. It's not his fault, back to the point, it's Prellers fault.

I think, as a first year manager with zero experience he did great. Again, I don't think Preller should have ever put him that spot though,

2

u/KTF-2026 SD 2d ago

AJ's worst seasons were when he gave big FA contracts/extensions for way too many years (Bogey and Hos for FA, Darvish and Crone for extensions) or overpaid/bought high for white whales (Nola).

The last 3 seasons have been his best work, because a restrained Preller is unable to sign albatrosses or empty the farm again when there is no farm left.

One thing I agree with you is that Niebla is carrying the coaching staff. He's been the one constant in the 4 playoff seasons in last 5 years. Stammen only deserves credit for not messing with an already good thing. His creativity/flexibility is a double-edged sword, but at the end of the day, I don't think he brings anything extra to this team, good or bad. Made plenty of mistakes, but also made some good choices too. Basically neutral effect, which means an average manager which he is at this moment.

The biggest mistakes on the current roster are the Manny extension, X contract, Darvish extension (bailed out by Yu's honor), and Crone extension. Terrible process and terrible result. Common theme was adding too many years, paying 30 yos into the late 30s/early 40s, just to lower the luxury tax hit by a couple million. Really dumb in hindsight. The Sycuan extension was fine, good process but unlucky and bad result. Miller trade TBD depending on how LDV pans out. Soto 1 trade was fine process, bad result. Soto 2 trade was good.

1

u/GoatCultural4386 Friar 11h ago

In most years Cronenworth's value has greatly outperformed his $11 M AAV, which is peanuts for a versitile player with a high OBP.

21

u/Tweegull šŸš¬šŸš¬šŸš¬ Mucho Stress 2d ago

absolutely not. theyā€™re so rhh heavy and heā€™s the only competent lefty outside of merrill. youre unlikely to find someone better on the scrap heap for less money

11

u/pineapplefriedriceu Kim-Chado 2d ago

Yeah and heā€™s been clutch and has a fuck ton of power, which is super helpful since besides manny, Tatis, and Merrill the rest of the lineup isnā€™t power bats

2

u/Simodine- 2d ago

Guess it depends on who they would rather have at DH and what happens at first.

I do think they maybe able to resign him for less but how much less to make it worth it.

1

u/arlius Keepinā€™ the Faith šŸ™ŒšŸ» 2d ago

Depends on if he can get his foot repaired over the offseason and come back to play 1B or the occasional LF. Unless they also fill that hole in LF with a solid hitter and defender to play it full time. Then Sheets can be the DH or 1B.

14

u/GoldLive20 SD 2d ago

They may find common ground closer to his 2026 salary. Heā€™s not likely to get 6 as a free agent and his reps know it.

4-5m for a possible 20 hr bat is reasonable. We need LH offense. Itā€™ll mostly depend on what the FO thinks about his foot.

2

u/rockoblocko SD 2d ago

Imo we need hitters who can crush lefties.

Most of our righties do the same or better against righties. And our lefties suck ass vs lefty.

3

u/GoldLive20 SD 2d ago

LH hitters have big matchup advantages. Our LH hitters not performing great this year doesnā€™t mean itā€™s not worth having them. A good lefty killer is nice to have, but heā€™ll get 20% the at bats of a solid LH DH

0

u/stevencastle 2d ago

Arbitration they can't take more than a 20% salary cut so they'd have to non-tender then sign as a free agent to pay less, but also allows any other team to sign him.

2

u/GoldLive20 SD 2d ago

He made 4.5 this year. Keeping him there or dropping it 500k doesnā€™t require a non tender.

1

u/stevencastle 2d ago

You rarely ever see players take a pay cut or stay the same salary under arbitration. They usually get non-tendered.

3

u/GoldLive20 SD 2d ago

They donā€™t have to non tender Sheets to hammer out a deal.

Sheets and his agent know a 6m free agent payday is a long shot. He could end up on a minor league deal again like he did before 2025. Lots of incentive on both sides to settle around what he made this year.

1

u/crazybutthole 2d ago

Guys who have a great season get a pay raise in arbitration.

I love sheets he's a fan favorite - but he hit .212 with 17 doubles and 17 homeruns and 49 RBI.

Not the type of season that demands a huge pay raise

I hope he will accept a reasonable deal and stay as a solid bench bat/platoon player. Maybe he DH's 40% of games + start in LF once a week and pinch hits the rest.

If he's good with that it's fine if he demands a starting position he would have to find a different team (in my opinion)

7

u/bbatardo Hakuna šŸ—šŸ¦ Machado! 2d ago

I think it really comes down to what their budget will be and if they need to trim in 1 area to cover another. Starting pitching is our highest priority, then we need to figure out if Ty France is the guy (and pay him), find an everyday left fielder, and patch up the pen.

I like Sheets as a person, but his production can be replaced for less if we need that money.

8

u/TatisToucher 2d ago

We have Laureano back, or could just hit free agency for a real OF like Arozarena. He really likes Mexico, so he might love SD

22

u/rockoblocko SD 2d ago

We donā€™t have laureano back tho? Unless I missed something heā€™s a 2027 free agent

-8

u/TatisToucher 2d ago

I kind of assumed we would resign since he value shouldnā€™t be too high and he seemed to like the city a lot

7

u/Similar-Bandicoot854 Tony Gwynn 2d ago

I think Fermin is the most likely to get non tendered

10

u/GoldLive20 SD 2d ago

Optionable. Might get traded, but no reason to non tender him and lose C depth

-6

u/pineapplefriedriceu Kim-Chado 2d ago

He wonā€™t be, Fermin is backup catcher and campy to DH

3

u/GoldLive20 SD 2d ago

Hard to carry a 3rd catcher all year. Made sense for us late because SMS was so overmatched, but itā€™s not a good way to spend a roster spot all season. He can go down to El Paso and be called up if needed.

2

u/Azzztecs 1d ago

He just stays in AAA until someone gets banged up.
Catchers get banged up a lot.

1

u/Adventurous_Bit1325 SD '84 1d ago

Fermin wonā€™t be on the team. The third catcher will be in the minors. Assume it will be Duran unless someone else shows promise.

1

u/KTF-2026 SD 2d ago

Honestly think Fermin is 3rd C/late-inning defensive replacement for Campy or if Salas gets PH for. Think they will carry 3 catchers cause they don't want to sell low on Fermin, especially given what we gave up to trade for him.

King likes throwing to Campy, so if King returns, I think Campy at least catches his starts.

Think they will split the catching duties 2-2-1 between Salas-Campy-Fermin. With Salas and Campy getting some DH time on non-catching days.

1

u/crazybutthole 2d ago

This would bad.

They need to trade fermin if they can get anything of value for him

It's bad roster usage to carry three catchers when you have good players to put in that roster spot.

In April/may - there were 5 teams carrying 3 catchers on their active roster.

San Francisco Giants, Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, and Kansas City Royals

What do those teams have in common ? Three were no where near playoffs - and two (Red Sox and phillies) both made managerial changes mid-season and lost in the wildcard. (As did the Padres in the next round.... carrying a third catcher.)

It's bad roster management. They would be better to sign a pinch hitter lefty and get some infielder to train in the off season to be ready as an emergency catcher.

1

u/arlius Keepinā€™ the Faith šŸ™ŒšŸ» 2d ago

Rodolfo DurƔn can be the backup catcher.

5

u/KTF-2026 SD 2d ago

Not a chance. Lefty slugger that hits around 20 HRs. Good value for 6.5M. WAR overvalues defense. Sheets also played through foot injury most of 2nd half, should get surgery to fix the issue. Really improved plate discipline in 2026 despite the injuries.

Only player we should non-tender is Sears.

0

u/Azzztecs 1d ago

I don't agree, I think that a lot of fans undervalue defense.

1

u/KTF-2026 SD 1d ago

Defense is valuable for sure, especially for up the middle positions like C, SS, and CF.

WAR penalizes easier positions like 1B and DH though. Fangraphs has Sheets and SMS with the same 0.2 WAR. But if both players were FA, Sheets would probably get 2x what SMS gets cause teams pay more $ for offensive/batting value, especially slug. There's a lot more all-glove no-bat players in the minors/available for cheap, than vice versa.

This team has been eliminated 3 playoffs in a row because of the offense. Defense has not been a huge factor.

1

u/Azzztecs 1d ago

To clarify, I would keep Sheets, but I don't believe that defense is undervalued.
Song is a very solid defender up the middle.
Capable of starting given the other ways in which he impact the game like steals.

Sheets also got 363 AB's this year to Song's 131.
Song would have put up better numbers with more consistent at bats.

Song got 4Y/15M, Sheets will get probably 5M one year later?

So maybe bats are ever so slightly undervalued by WAR?

One thing to also consider, to your point about there being a multitude of all glove no bat players in the minors: those players are all young and cheap

Baseball overpays for veterans like Manny Muchado in long contracts because of FA.
As that contract ages, Manny will become a very expensive all bat no defense player.

Young players don't enter FA until a certain amount of time has passed.
That's part of the reason why defense is "cheaper" and hitting is "more expensive" - it's just a part of the lifecycle of a baseball player, who starts as a young defensive stud who's figuring things out on offense (some of them never do). If those cheap minor players had access to free agency, they actually would command higher values in FA.

1

u/GoatCultural4386 Friar 11h ago

He's opting for rest next few months and if that doesn't work, he'll go with surgery, and that will make him unavailable start of season.

1

u/RonDL ASG '92 2d ago

Sheets had a 116 wRC+ and .215 Iso vs. RHP. Bring him back but use him strictly as a platoon-player.

1

u/Norman_Maclean 2d ago

He's a good piece if he's used strictly on a platoon basis and when he doesn't have to play a lot of defense. I feel like $6M is probably exactly what he's worth.

1

u/No-Wall-3854 2d ago

non tender with pre agreement to resign him for something less than the arb amount is the obvious answer

1

u/sbrider11 SD '71 1d ago

Team is going to go thru a lot of changes. Let's ride and see what we roll with.

Sheets is an okay bench piece yet we have way bigger priorities, imo.

1

u/Joe6268Cool 1d ago

Sheets doesn't need to play defense if he is the designated hitter. Plus, he is a lefty who can crush it. Power from the left is sorely needed as Merrill is the only other. First Base belongs to Ty France, and we have a full outfield. DH Sheets helps him heal his plantar fasciitis as well.

1

u/autumnbreeznleaves 2d ago

No, Sheets is likely the padres opening day 1B. Sheets arb projection will be a lot cheaper than Ty France FA contract. The Padres need SP so Sheets could cover 1B much cheaper than resigning Ty France.

4

u/inalavalamp Tony Gwynn #19 2d ago

If sheets is the opening day 1B instead of Ty France, then the offseason didnā€™t go well. Padres have new ownership so the likelihood of Ty coming back is better than years past. Yes they need starting pitching, but thatā€™s where the new ownership comes into play as well. Plus, trades and spring training battles help mitigate that.

2

u/BankNo8895 I Just Not Giving a Fuck 2d ago

This was France's first good season since 2023. He'll be 32 next year. People over-estimate what he's going to make in free agency.

1

u/GoatCultural4386 Friar 11h ago

Sheets is opting not to have surgery this offseason to address plantar fasciitis in his left foot. But if it doesn't improve substantially by December then he'll likely have surgery that will make him unavailable for first month or two of season.