5. New York Knicks (48-34)
Let me cut to the chase and then work backward: I would probably give the Knicks the best odds of any of the East’s 15 teams to make it to the finals. It’s just not clear to me that they’ll have the best record in the 82 games that precede the ones that matter.
It’s plausible that any of my top seven teams finish the year with the conference’s top seed — including New York — and unpredictable factors such as injuries and close-game luck may end up tipping the scale. But in a playoff tournament, different things matter, and the things that matter most are the strength of the starting five and the schematic vulnerability of the weakest links. New York grades out very strongly in both areas, which is no surprise given its dominant run through the 2026 playoffs (and, less discussed, a pretty strong performance in 2025, as well).
As I noted already, not a whole lot has changed for the Knicks, in terms of the roster, except that everybody is a year older. So, our median expectation for the regular season would be a slight decline from last year’s 53 wins. That’s especially true given the downgrade from Mitchell Robinson to Andre Drummond at backup center and the overall age of the roster.
Aside from the Karl-Anthony Towns extension drama, the in-season story for the Knicks will be how they handle the back half of the roster. New York only has two true centers and otherwise would turn to … OG Anunoby? … as its third big. (A third big may emerge from the replacement-level flotsam invited to compete for the last roster spot at training camp, but probably not one you’d be excited to put in a game.)
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