I really like this dude.

Back for another tale of the tape, this week we get the 1-4 Saints who by the numbers are one of the weaker teams we’ve played so far. What’s interesting is while our overall DVOA numbers aren’t great, the EPA numbers are telling a somewhat different story, especially when you look at how things changed last week.

Stats through week 5, league rankings in brackets, arrows show how many spots the Giants moved since week 4.

Tale of the Tape — DVOA & EPA

Higher offensive DVOA/EPA is better, lower defensive DVOA/EPA is better. DVOA is opponent adjusted, EPA is not. Arrows show change in league ranking, not the raw value.

Takeaways

First off this is one of the softer defenses we’ve faced, the Saints rank 31st in defensive DVOA, for comparison Dallas is 32nd, Tennessee 30th, Arizona 28th, Washington 22nd and the Rams 7th.

What’s interesting is that despite still being 29th in offensive DVOA, our passing EPA is up to 13th in the league, an improvement of 4 spots from last week, while overall offensive EPA jumped 8 spots to 15th. So there is at least some statistical support for what we saw in the second half against Washington.

Winston has had to deal with some pretty miserable weather over the last couple games, after the rain let up in the second half vs the commies he looked considerably better. The weather was still pretty ugly so I don’t think we can give that all the credit, Nagy also seemed to make some adjustments, he leaned into tempo, increased dropbacks and focused the offense on Nabers and Likely rather then run first. Winston responded with 254 yards and 3 TDs in the second half.

To me this reinforces that we want to be throwing the ball. We’re at +0.136 EPA per passing play while the Saints are giving up +0.157, good for 26th in pass defense EPA. Not exactly a matchup we should be afraid of. Hopefully AT & JE are full goes, they’ve been awesome in pass pro and if they are out there give us a our best advantage outside ST

The run game is a different story, we’ve actually fallen 3 spots to 25th in rushing EPA at -0.201, compared to the Saints at -0.104 and 16th. So while neither team is exactly crushing it on the ground, they’ve been considerably better than us.

One possible positive for this week is Hudson, he’s been a pretty massive upgrade at center, he’s got the best run blocking grade on our line at 72.3 vs JMS at 49.7 and has allowed just one pressure over 102 pass blocking snaps. I’m hoping we start seeing some of that translate into the run game, especially against a Saints defense ranked 31st in rushing EPA allowed.

On the other side of the ball the Saints offense ranks 25th in DVOA vs our 29th, so by that measure they’re actually a little better offensively than we are. The difference is our defense ranks 23rd vs their 31st, which should give us an advantage when you look at both sides of the ball together.

What’s really interesting to me is how much Wilson has changed our defense over the last couple weeks. After barely blitzing through the first three games we’ve jumped to 2nd in the league in blitz rate over the last two at 57.9%, including 62% against Washington where we generated 5 sacks and the fastest average time to pressure of any team this season.

That lines up pretty well against the Saints, their offensive line ranks 26th in pass block win rate at 45% while we’re 5th in pass rush win rate at 58%. Shough hasn’t exactly been great against the blitz either, averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt with a 6.8% explosive pass rate compared to 17.1% when teams rush four or fewer.

We also have a pretty good comparison from last week when Flores and the Vikings brought heavy pressure against Shough and held him to 96 yards and 2 picks. Given how similar Wilson’s recent approach has been I’d imagine we see a lot more of the same Sunday, especially with Reese and Phillips getting involved in the pressure packages.

The big wildcard here is Carter’s calf injury. With Burns already out losing Carter would take another big piece out of our pass rush, and while Wilson’s blitz packages have been effective, I’m not sure how comfortable I am sending extra rushers every down if we don’t have our speed freak on edge ensuring we get to shough in less then 2.5 seconds. Hopefully Carter can go because this looks like a pretty favorable matchup for him.

The primary concern is still the saints rushing game against our run defense, they’re 16th in rushing EPA while we’re 22nd defending it. They’re also 6th on third downs and top 5 scoring TDs in the red zone, which makes me a little nervous given how we’ve struggled to get off the field, Olave is a stud, great test to see if Banks is the dude he shown the last few weeks.

To me this is really a game where we need to put Shough in obvious passing situations and let Wilson go after him. If they can establish the run and keep us from bringing pressure this could get a lot closer than the overall rankings suggest.

Special teams, still a pretty massive advantage

We’re 3rd in ST DVOA vs the Saints at 26th, and I think this continues to be one of the more overlooked strengths of the team.

Stout and the coverage units have been doing some serious work, I’m giving Zvada a pass, last weeks kicking conditions were about as bad as they get and he’s been nails besides the mud bowl

What’s interesting to me is how much this should influence our offensive game plan. If Stout is consistently flipping the field and we’re getting good coverage on returns, I think that gives Nagy some room to let Winston air it out rather than trying to grind out first downs with a running game that hasn’t been working.

Obviously that doesn’t mean we can afford Winston throwing picks, especially on our side of the field, but I’m a lot more comfortable being aggressive against this secondary knowing we have that kind of ST advantage if a drive stalls.

Injuries

The big wildcard is our tackles, Thomas and Eluemunor have both missed practice this week along with Carter, and our secondary is dealing with some issues as well.

Saints have their own problems, Elliss and Jennings have been missing practice, Olave has been out with an illness and Kamara is dealing with a back issue.

If we’re missing both tackles I think that changes the offensive matchup pretty significantly, especially if we’re planning on putting the ball in Winston’s hands more often.

My take

By the numbers this should be a pretty favorable matchup for us, but I think the bigger question is whether the offense we saw in the second half against Washington is something Nagy can build on or if it was just a product of playing from behind.

Our passing EPA has improved considerably, Hudson seems to have stabilized the middle of the line and Nabers is starting to look like himself again. With the special teams advantage I don’t really see a reason to play conservative football against one of the worst defenses in the league.

I’d like to see Nagy continue with the tempo, let Winston chuck it, make the Saints defend Nabers and Likely and use that to open things up for Skattebo rather than trying to establish a run game that hasn’t been working.

On defense I think it’s pretty straightforward, keep the Saints from controlling the clock on the ground and force Shough to beat us throwing. Our passing defense has actually gone backwards statistically, dropping 6 spots in EPA last week, but I like the new blitz packages to mess with Shough especially if carters out there

So what does that translate to on the scoreboard?

I thought it would be interesting to try and put a point value on our advantages across all three phases of the game. Using the DVOA differences and league average scoring to estimate the impact of each unit here’s what we get.

What’s interesting is that even though the Saints have the better offense by DVOA, our defensive and special teams advantages more than make up the difference. We’re getting roughly half our advantage from ST alone, which reinforces just how valuable that unit has been.

Obviously this is a pretty simple projection and doesn’t account for injuries or who’s playing QB, but I think it’s a reasonable starting point, especially given how much better the passing game looked in the second half against Washington.

My prediction: Giants 25 — Saints 20

If Winston can pick up where he left off, and we can keep Shough from getting comfortable behind their run game, I think we should win this one. The injuries up front are my biggest concern, but otherwise the numbers are lining up pretty well for us.

Sources: FTN DVOA, The Stat Drop EPA, PFF blocking grades, through Week 5. Point projection is my own simplified DVOA-based estimate.

Giants would get Road Goff, as good as Detroit is that would be a winnable game in the cold.

Yet another indictment of the previous coaching regime.

📰 Stats are important, but people are "underestimating" what Kayvon Thibodeaux is bringing to the table and the plays he is making. "The tape is what tells the story" and you'll see a lot of good on it. Harbaugh pointed to the final play last week when Thibodeaux took the throw away from Jayden Daniels and the quarterback "decided to tuck it."

This stack of doom and destruction was so satisfying to watch happen during the 4th quarter rally. Do you guys try to always get Giants in fantasy ? What other combos do you guys have? Can’t go a year without having at least one personally

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What would you like to discuss today?

I bought this scarf in London a year ago. It didn't last the day before it got 'lost'. I have since not been able to find one. Can anyone point me to where I might find this specific style with the black tassels and everything?

Edit: I bought it at the official NFL merch shop at Tottenham during the next broncos game. I 'lost' (someone half inched it.) on the tube that night.