r/Mariners • u/r4dius • 1d ago

MLB Network discusses over-fixation on analytics

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZTyW41dV2/

While the Mariners aren’t mentioned by name, they certainly feel like the canonical example (or counter-example, as it were).

The point that Leiter makes about the mental impact of a potential bunt I found particularly illuminating. As in: whether hitters are forcing pitchers to be multi-dimensional — versus enabling them to zero-in on avoiding the long ball.

Like seemingly everything in modern life, that which cannot be easily measured risks becoming invisible.

Here’s rooting for the Brewers to help incept greater nuance in the sport we love, and maybe even beyond Baseball.

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u/Maximus_2698 1d ago edited 1d ago

Analytics is not the Mariners' problem. You can't convince me that "analytics" indicated that the Mariners should constantly pinch hit for one of their better hitters with the worst hitter in baseball over and over again for half the season. Or that it was the right call to carry 6 starters and run a man down in an already short bullpen just so they could "keep guys stretched out". That's not analytics, it's traditional, old-school baseball based on conventional wisdom and vibes.

The teams that are still playing right now are all some of the most analytical teams in baseball. It's why they're still playing and the Mariners are sitting at home.

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u/YardAdmirable7060 1d ago

You’re joking, right?

You’ve literally got it completely reversed.

None of those things are traditional baseball things.

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u/Maximus_2698 1d ago edited 1d ago

Well, left/right matchups and "keeping guys stretched out" are absolutely traditional baseball things, for one. But I'm not really talking about the strategies themselves, I'm talking about the mindset. They didn't run Rob Refsnyder out there for 114 ABs because the stats said they should. They did it because he's a lefty, and he's here to hit lefties, so we're gonna let him keep hitting lefties until he figures it out. Same thing with the 6 man rotation. An analytically-minded organization would have taken Castillo out of the rotation as soon as it became clear he couldn't pitch effectively after 4 innings. But, they didn't want to hurt his feelings and he was the most expensive pitcher on the team, so they let it ride, which caused massive issues later on.

The point is, they did too many things the stats obviously didn't support for reasons that had nothing to do with analytics. That is traditional baseball. Teams like the Brewers don't do things like that.

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u/YardAdmirable7060 1d ago

Left/right matchup is an analytic thing.

You think they were platooning guys in 1930?

Stats are not analytics. Stats would say bench Rob. Analytics say he will be a better matchup against a lefty than whoever he’s coming in for.

The stretched out thing doesn’t even have anything to do with this discussion and was definitely just trying to insulate Castillo/Miller’s value as a starter before one of them was traded.

Even so… does that sound like old school baseball or modern day analytics?

Without any animosity, and in the kindest way possible, you have no idea what you’re talking about.

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u/Maximus_2698 1d ago edited 1d ago

You think they were platooning guys in 1930?

Uh... yes. Even earlier than that actually. Maybe use Google before you start telling me I don't know what I'm talking about.

https://tht.fangraphs.com/great-platoons-1914-1948/

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u/YardAdmirable7060 1d ago

The fact you think that is the same thing as what is going on today is another indictment

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u/Maximus_2698 1d ago

I'd love to hear what you think the difference is if you don't think it's the same thing.

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u/YardAdmirable7060 1d ago

Old school “platoon” = what you allege the Mariners are doing. Thoughtless vibes.

Modern platoon = based off what the data scientists decide is most optimal.

Pinch hitting Rob Ref for a much better hitter is the furthest thing from traditional baseball and analytics + analytics based on matchups are the only way to explain it.

Old school baseball you’d get 2 maybe 3 pitchers in a game. Now you are routinely getting 6 guys throwing in a single game. That’s 6 different matchups that your analytics team is gonna favor a certain player over another in.

You’d also never take out a “better” player for a “worse” player based on tradition/vibes.

A front office now specifically builds their roster around these practices… as we’ve unfortunately seen it comes with varying levels of success. Every team does this and it’s not just left/right anymore either. The wealth of data is insane.

This idea was apparently so revolutionary they wrote a book and made a movie about it. It was hardly widespread even 20 years ago.

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u/PrinceOfPuddles ‏‏‎ ‎ 13h ago

That's just the no true Scottsman fallacy, just because it's ineffective doesn't mean it isn't under the same umbrella. Saying it's only a platoon if it works and both players are good and if you think otherwise you have no idea what you are talking about is a wild take.

Besides, trying to split things cleanly into either old school vibes and modern analytics with no crossover is a fruitless endeavor. Pulling Raley while he was hot to get him out a matchup he has struggled with is an analytics move, but batting your worst hitter, the worst hitter the organization has ever had, in the leadoff spot is about as vibes based as you can get.

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u/YardAdmirable7060 12h ago

It’s not about effectiveness at all. I don’t know where you got that from.

Not sure if that fallacy is applicable here. Unless you think that 1930s teams were also using advanced sabermetrics and predictive analytics to determine optimal matchups? Or were they actually doing something different?