For NYCFC, there's a few guys who had pretty sizeable expectations but didn't work out.

Mix Diskerud was still a 25-year-old USMNT player when he signed on City's inaugural roster. We all see how that ultimately went (not well).

Talles Magno is a pretty clear example. Only 19 still when he joined NYCFC from Vasco da Gama, and had been on The Guardian's Next Generation 2019 list just two years prior. He hasn't been awful, but he's certainly never lived up to that hype.

I'd say the biggest flop though was Jovan Mijatovic. Massive potential coming from Red Star Belgrade's youth academy and getting time with the first team starting at 17 years old as well as Serbia's youth teams. Came to NYCFC at 19 for a huge transfer fee amid interest from some of the biggest clubs in Europe. But he's just plain busted. Barely got on the field for NYCFC, is now playing poorly in the 2. Bundesliga.

What about your clubs?

With another club qualifying, it's time to look at 2027 Concacaf Champions Cup qualification. (I'm trying to keep it off of Mondays so it doesn't get run over by all the memes on that day.)

Some notes on conventions:

• I use trigrams for clubs on first reference, even when we all know who we're talking about.
• I'm assuming the rules for qualification in 2027 will be the same as in 2026 unless otherwise specified. (The 2027 regulations aren't out yet.)
• If you see the term "named berth", this means any berth that is not simply given to the next best club in the standings that isn't already qualified.
• I refer to weekends by their Saturday and midweeks by their Wednesday, unless a specific singular date has been declared.
• Clubs in bold have qualified for 2027 Champions Cup; bold and italics indicates a bye directly to the Round of 16.

WHAT'S NEW

• A fourteenth club has officially qualified!

COMPETITIONS THAT HAVE CONCLUDED

Leagues Cup

Qualification Rules

• Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Leagues Cup.
• The 2026 Leagues Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
• The runner-up and third place club qualifies for the First Round.

Analysis

• Toluca [MEX] defeated Monterrey [MEX] in the championship, 2-0.
• León [MEX] defeated América [MEX] in the third-place game, 1-0.

LigaMX

Qualification Rules

• Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through LigaMX.
• Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura champions qualify; of these two clubs, the one with the most points between the two tournaments qualifies directly to the Round of 16. The other qualifies for the First Round.
  • Note that if either champion wins Leagues Cup, then both champions qualify for the Round of 16.
• Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura runners-up qualify for the First Round.
• In addition, the two clubs with the most points between the two tournaments, not already qualified, will qualify for the First Round.
  • If any club qualifies through two or more named berths, then an additional club will qualify through points for each excess named berth so held.

Results

• Toluca [MEX] defeated Tigres [MEX] in the 2025 Apertura final on penalties.
• Cruz Azul [MEX] defeated Pumas [MEX] in the 2026 Clausura final, 2-1.
  • Since Toluca qualified through Leagues Cup and were a LigaMX champion, Cruz Azul automatically gets a bye to the Round of 16. (They would have earned this anyways as Cruz Azul was tops in the aggregate table; Toluca was second.)
• Three clubs have qualified so far through LigaMX, so we need three additional qualifiers, which are Chivas [MEX] in third, América [MEX] in fifth, and Pachuca [MEX] in seventh. (Tigres was fourth, Pumas was sixth.)

COMPETITIONS IN PROGRESS

Major League Soccer

Qualification Rules

• Five clubs qualify for Champions Cup through MLS.
• The 2026 MLS Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • Note that if the MLS Cup champion also wins Leagues Cup, the MLS Cup runner-up qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
• Both regular season conference champions qualify for the First Round.
• In addition, the two clubs with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
  • If a club qualifies for Champions Cup through two or more named berths (other than Open Cup champion or Canadian Championship winner), then an additional club with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
• Note that these berths are not country-locked; this is a relatively new policy starting with qualification for the 2025 tournament.

Analysis

• Leading the Supporters Shield table is Nashville SC [USA] with 66 points; Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN] lead the Western Conference with 52.
  • Note that as Nashville can finish no worse than third in the overall table, they’ve clinched a berth in Champions Cup.
• The next two best are Inter Miami [USA] with 52 points and St. Louis City FC [USA] with 51 points.
• If one of these were to win MLS Cup, FC Dallas [USA] would claim a spot. They’re on 50 points and lead New England Revolution [USA] by one point.
• Nashville’s magic number to clinch the Supporters’ Shield is 2.
• The Whitecaps and Inter Miami each have a magic number of 14 to clinch a berth in Champions Cup.
• The regular season ends on November 7; MLS Cup is scheduled for December 18.

Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup

Qualification Rules

• One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Open Cup.
• This berth goes to the club that wins the Open Cup.
  • Should the Open Cup champion already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Open Cup runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
  • If both the Open Cup champion and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth reverts to the club with the most points in the 2026 MLS season, not already qualified. (The regulations do not say that this berth is country-locked but honestly it should be.)

Analysis

• The final is set!
  • Columbus Crew [USA] v St. Louis City SC [USA]
• The final is set for October 21.

Canadian Premier League

Qualification Rules

• Two clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the CPL.
• The 2026 North Star Cup winner qualifies for the First Round.
• The 2026 CPL shield winner qualifies for the First Round.
• Should a club win both named berths, the second-place club in the table will take a berth instead.

Analysis

• Cavalry [CAN] currently leads the shield race with 54 points from 26 matches. They lead Forge FC [CAN] on goal difference; these two will be the top two clubs this season.
  • This assumes that all clubs meet their requirement of 2,000 U-21 Domestic Player minutes over the course of the season (clubs that don’t are automatically ineligible for the playoffs.) Only Cavalry has not met this quota already.
  • Note that the quota only allows 1,000 minutes to come from players on loan, so Adam Pearlman’s nearly 2,000 minutes gets shrunk to 1,000. Cavalry currently owes 94 minutes.
• Atlético Ottawa [CAN] has also clinched their playoff berth.
• The last playoff berth is currently held by Vancouver FC [CAN] with 34 points; they hold a two point lead over Supra du Québec [CAN] and a six point lead over HFX Wanderers [CAN].
  • In terms of tiebreakers:
    • The Wanderers would hold the tiebreaker against Vancouver at 34 points on head-to-head (HFX is 3-0-0 against Vancouver so far, and would necessarily win the fourth match).
    • Supra would hold the tiebreaker against Vancouver at 35 points or higher on more wins; Vancouver would hold the tiebreaker at 34 points on head-to-head (Vancouver went 2-2-0 against Supra.)
    • Note that there cannot be a three-way tie between the clubs as for the Wanderers to be in the tie, they’d have to defeat Supra, and then Supra cannot earn exactly two points.
• Cavalry’s magic number to clinch Champions Cup participation is 7.
• The regular season ends on October 25; the North Star Cup final is the weekend of November 21.

Canadian Championship

Qualification Rules

• One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Canadian Championship.
• This berth goes to the club that wins the Canadian Championship.
  • Should the Canadian Championship winner already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Canadian Championship runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
  • If both the Canadian Championship winner and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth goes to the Canadian Championship semifinalist with the better performance in the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds, not already qualified.

Analysis

• The final is set!
  • (4) CF Montréal [CAN] v (2) Forge FC [CAN]
• The final is on October 21.

Central American Cup

Qualification Rules

• Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Central American Cup.
• The champion of Central American Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
• The three remaining semifinalists all qualify for the First Round.
• In addition, two play-in winners (amongst losing quarterfinalists) qualify for the First Round.

Analysis

• The semifinals are set! All semifinalists have qualified for Concacaf Champions Cup. (First team listed hosts the second leg - this was determined by performance through all games of the competition thus far.)
  • Olimpia [HON] v Cartaginés [CRC]
  • Alajuelense [CRC] v Motagua [HON]
• The play-in matches are likewise set!
  • Saprissa [CRC] v LA Firpo [SLV]
  • Alianza [SLV] v Marathón [HON]
• If Olimpia advances to the final, they’ll host the second leg as they will be guaranteed to have the better record through the competition (20 points at minimum if a double draw, compared to a maximum of 19 for Alajuelense or 18 for Motagua if they win both.)
• I fully expect, regardless of who advances to the finals, that Costa Rica and Honduras will get the extra berths for the 2027 Central American Cup. (It's usually determined by the nations of the two clubs that reach the final, but it's entirely possible that the finals will be contested by two clubs from the same nation.)
• Note that regardless of the results, we’ll have the fewest Central American nations represented in Concacaf Champions Cup since 2022, when only clubs from Costa Rica, Honduras, and Guatemala qualified; we have to go back to 2006 to find a tournament when only two countries qualified (Costa Rica and Honduras), which could happen if both Saprissa and Marathón win their play-ins.
• The semifinals and play-in are on the midweeks of October 21 and 28; the final is on December 2 and 6.

Caribbean Cup

Qualification Rules

• Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Caribbean Cup.
• The champion of Caribbean Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
• The runner-up and third place club qualify for the First Round.

Analysis

• The first leg of the semifinals are finished!
  • Violette [HAI] v Portmore United [JAM] (Portmore United won the first leg 3-1 in Jamaica.)
  • Mount Pleasant [JAM] v Sando FC [TRI] (The first leg was a 1-1 draw in Trinidad and Tobago.)
• Should both Mount Pleasant and Portmore United qualify, it’ll mark the first time since the 2016/17 tournament that two Caribbean clubs from the same nation qualify for the tournament, when both Central and W Connection qualified from Trinidad and Tobago.
• The second leg of the semifinals is on the midweek of October 21; the final and third-place matches are on December 1 and 5.

THE DRAW AS IT STANDS NOW

The Expected Format

It's expected that the draw will be the same format as 2026.

• The better LigaMX champion, the MLS champion, the Leagues Cup winner, the Central American Cup champion, and the Caribbean Cup champion will be placed into the bracket in ranking order. (We're going to denote these as C1-C5.)
• The top three First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will, likewise, be placed into the bracket. (We'll note these as D1-D3.)
• The next eight First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will be seeded and randomly drawn into the bracket. (These are A1-A8.)
• The remaining eleven First Round clubs will be unseeded. (These are B1-B11.)

The bracket will look like this:

Lazy Projections

I'm going to project the field by making simple assumptions:

• For the Canadian Championship, we’ll go by the explicit seeding.
• In MLS and CPL, the club currently leading the table wins the playoffs and berths still go in standings order.
• In Open Cup and Central American Cup, we’ll use Concacaf Club Rankings to determine the winners.
• In Caribbean Cup, we’ll use current results to determine the winners. (If it’s a tie for whatever reason, Concacaf Club Rankings will prevail.)

This leads to the following projections as of right now.

• Nashville wins MLS Cup, with Vancouver, Inter Miami, St. Louis, and Dallas qualifying through MLS.
• Columbus wins the Open Cup over St. Louis.
• Cavalry wins CPL with Forge qualifying.
• Forge beats Montréal in the Canadian Championship final; with Forge qualifying elsewhere, Montréal gets the berth.
• The Central American Cup is won by Olimpia over Alajuelense in the final; Saprissa and Marathón win the play-in round.
• The Caribbean Cup is won by Mount Pleasant over Portmore United; Violette takes third.

The seeding would then look as follows:

Seeding Analysis

• I’m pretty sure that Toluca will stay in the C1 position. They’re ahead of Cruz Azul by 33 points. There's a big advantage in being the overall top seed; you avoid the potential top clubs until the semifinals.
• Similarly, I’m pretty sure Cruz Azul will stay ahead of whoever the MLS champion is for C2. They’re currently 25 points ahead of Nashville, who’s the current projected winner of MLS.
• I feel confident that C4 will be the Central American Cup champion and C5 will be the Caribbean Cup champion. Everyone left in the race for the Central American Cup title is better than Violette, who is the highest-ranked Caribbean Cup club.
• In terms of D1 through D3, I think Tigres is safely D1 (they’re 22 points ahead of América); I think that América and Chivas are less so. Inter Miami is only 11 points back of Chivas and that’s a margin that I could see possibly erased.
• In terms of Pot B, I’ve been saying that I fully expect the five Central American clubs, the two Caribbean clubs, the two CPL clubs, and the Canadian Championship berth to be unseeded. That leaves one berth to be unseeded and it’s highly likely that it's an MLS club, given we'd need five First Round clubs to be ahead of the lowest LigaMX qualifier. Best guess right now is one of St. Louis, New England, or Houston.
  • However, I’m starting to think that a Central American club (specifically Olimpia) might be able to take a spot in Pot A if they don’t win Central American Cup, depending on which MLS clubs qualify.

Fourteen berths have been handed out so far; that leaves thirteen berths yet to be assigned!

Our next expected update will be on Monday, October 26. By that point:

• the winners of the Canadian Championship and the US Open Cup will be known
• The Caribbean Cup final will be set
• the regular season for the Canadian Premier League will be finished

There's a possibility I might update sooner if someone comes close to clinching a Concacaf Champions Cup berth in either MLS or CPL.

If you have any questions, please, don't hesitate to ask me here, and I will attempt to answer them to the best of my ability!

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