Was living a nightmare the past year trying to get back losses.

1 year. Zero to hero to zero. Thanks ASTS and its management .

This will literally go down as one of the craziest and largest companies to not only go bust but also steal investors money in broad daylight. 😂

It’s wild that Lehman Brothers market cap was only a fraction of the size of CoreWeave 🤯

Think about how crazy this is. The CEO of Nvidia ($5.2T) had to come out today and publicly reassure investors about CoreWeave ($37B) after its stock and bonds got smoked.

He literally said: "CoreWeave’s strength is improving every day" and that its cost of capital is going down and Nvidia doesn't need to backstop it.

And we've literally only had 3 weeks of a drawdown.

When was the last time you saw Tim Cook at Apple or Sundar at Google come out to defend the balance sheet of a supplier or customer because their stock and bonds were crashing?

If the CEO of a $5T company has to do PR damage control for a company less than 1% its size after just 3 weeks of selling, how circular is this whole AI trade?

Not saying CoreWeave goes bankrupt tomorrow, but if they're already doing this after 3 weeks of chop, what happens in an actual bear market?

Context: Over the course of a year I lost over 60 - 70 k trading options. Over the course of last two months, I was able to slowly recover from 10 k to 20k trading leverage shares. Then 20k to 35k on some options. Then I started trading Spx. Turn 30k to 70k in two weeks. I have never made so much money in such a short time.

The day I lost everything again was a normal day. I was scalping Spx. Started off from telling myself only play with 5 k to yoloing my whole account into a move that I knew it was against me but I wanted to be right. My mentality, my strategy, everything was suddenly thrown out of the window.

very expensive cuck chair where you pay to watch your portfolio get absolutely railed, -7.57% today

Maybe the bubble is finally bursting

Holdings are the usual suspects of AI stocks - neo cloud and semis. This hedge fund is likely liquidated and has a Situational Awareness 2.0 written all over. We have bottomed!

https://x.com/Kalshi_Finance/status/2110796868565209364?s=20

Bought the dip but didn’t realize id get the sexist close of the year.

Does it?

SaltyVegan69 checking in. 🌱🍫

Four months ago, on June 11, I posted my original cocoa DD⁠, arguing that the market was massively underpricing the risk of a Super El Niño hitting global cocoa production.

Some of you called it AI slop. Others compared it to ornamental gourds.

Well.

Cocoa on June 11: ~$3,700/tonne.

Cocoa today: ~$5,950/tonne.

That’s approximately +60%.

And I think the most interesting part of this trade is still ahead of us.

Here’s what’s changed.

1. MY ORIGINAL THESIS: THE MARKET WAS LOOKING AT THE WRONG CROP

This was the central argument in June.

Everyone was obsessing over the comfortable 2025/26 harvest. Strong arrivals, rising inventories, collapsing demand.

But that was the OLD crop.

My thesis concerned the NEW 2026/27 crop.

I argued that weather damage to flowers, cherelles and young pods could occur months before the market saw the consequences in actual harvest arrivals.

I specifically identified September–October as the first serious test, November–December as the window when crop problems could become more obvious, and early 2027 as potentially decisive.

Well, we’re now in October.

StoneX has cut its projected 2026/27 global surplus from 149,000 tonnes to just 25,000 tonnes.

That’s an 83% reduction.

And the outlook for major producing countries is deteriorating:

GHANA: COCOBOD expects production to fall by at least 16%, citing unfavorable weather, poor pod formation and disease.

IVORY COAST: Production is expected to decline by more than 10%, with some estimates pointing toward losses approaching 20%.

ECUADOR: The world’s third-largest producer, which was supposed to help rescue global supply, is itself facing an El Niño threat. Exporters had projected 626,000 tonnes of exports for 2026/27 before accounting for weather damage. Expana analysts warn of potential losses of 40,000–50,000 tonnes if excessive rainfall persists into early 2027.

Ecuador is particularly interesting because El Niño can bring the opposite problem there: excessive rainfall, flooding, fungal diseases and disrupted harvesting.

AND THE WEATHER DAMAGE DIDN’T EVEN WAIT FOR EL NIÑO TO PEAK.

Remember what happened this summer?

In Ivory Coast, excessive rainfall and persistent humidity were already causing problems in June and July.

Late-June field surveys reported that MORE THAN 20% of flowers and cherelles (young pods) had died between May and June.

Heavy rainfall encouraged black pod disease, which causes cocoa pods to rot.

Ghana wasn’t doing much better.

COCOBOD reported excessive May–June rainfall, widespread disease and unusually low young-pod counts in its important Western and Western North growing regions.

Then, in September, parts of Ivory Coast experienced insufficient rainfall, threatening another generation of developing pods.

Too much rain, followed by too little.

Not exactly ideal.

So we’re not just speculating about what a future El Niño might do.

The 2026/27 crop was already showing worrying signs MONTHS AGO.

And the strongest phase of El Niño hasn’t even arrived yet.

2. SUPER EL NIÑO: THIS IS GETTING RIDICULOUS

Back in June, NOAA had confirmed El Niño conditions, but the question was how powerful the event would become.

We now have some extraordinary numbers.

NOAA, October 8:

Niño-3.4 anomaly: +2.1°C.

Greater than 83% probability of strong-to-very-strong conditions persisting through January–March 2027.

Subsurface temperature anomalies exceeding +10°C in parts of the eastern Pacific.

Japan’s Meteorological Agency, October 9:

September Niño-3 anomaly: +4.0°C.

Highest September reading since its records began in 1949.

Previous record: +3.6°C in 1997.

And then there’s the World Meteorological Organization.

WMO forecasts an October–December Niño-3.4 anomaly of approximately +3.7°C.

The previous observed seasonal record was +2.6°C during the 2015/16 Super El Niño.

Read that again.

+3.7°C VERSUS +2.6°C.

Potentially smashing the previous seasonal record by more than a full degree.

This isn’t just another El Niño.

We could be looking at a genuine GODZILLA EL NIÑO.

And here’s the really interesting part:

WMO EXPECTS EL NIÑO TO PEAK AROUND DECEMBER 2026, WITH CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY 2027.

You know what else starts around December?

THE HARMATTAN SEASON.

Dry, dusty winds blowing south from the Sahara across West Africa, typically between November/December and March, reducing humidity and soil moisture.

This means El Niño’s projected peak coincides with West Africa’s dry season, while its effects could persist into the crucial development period for the April–September 2027 MID-CROP.

Meanwhile, Ecuador’s rainy season also overlaps with El Niño’s strongest phase, bringing a separate risk of excessive rainfall.

The biggest weather test may still be ahead of us.

3. DEMAND DESTRUCTION? TODAY’S NUMBERS WOULD LIKE A WORD.

For months, the bearish consensus was that chocolate had become too expensive, manufacturers were reformulating, and consumers had permanently reduced consumption.

Demand destruction was real. Nobody disputes that.

But look at TODAY’S Q3 grinding releases.

EUROPE:

Q3 2026: 348,215 tonnes.
+3.2% year-on-year.
Q2 had been -4.6%.

ASIA:

Q3 2026: 233,767 tonnes.
+29.22% year-on-year.
+4.06% quarter-on-quarter.

Yes, you read that correctly.

ASIA. PLUS. TWENTY-NINE. PERCENT.

Analysts had expected approximately 208,412 tonnes.

They missed by more than 25,000 tonnes.

Malaysia separately reported +47%.

Granted, Asia benefited from a weak comparison quarter, and grinding activity isn’t identical to final consumer demand.

But the narrative of relentlessly collapsing cocoa demand is looking increasingly shaky.

And North America’s Q3 figures are scheduled for release later today.

If demand keeps recovering while the new global crop deteriorates, the supply-demand balance could change very quickly.

4. THE INVENTORY BEAR CASE: YOU’RE LOOKING AT THE OLD CROP. AGAIN.

Now let’s address the strongest remaining bearish argument.

ICE warehouse stocks have been rising, and that has repeatedly put pressure on cocoa prices.

That’s real.

But there’s a problem with using today’s inventories to dismiss tomorrow’s supply shock.

THE INVENTORY BUILD IS LARGELY THE RESULT OF THE OLD 2025/26 CROP AND WEAKER RECENT DEMAND.

That harvest was relatively comfortable and generated a substantial surplus.

Of course stocks rebuilt.

But cocoa already harvested doesn’t tell you how much cocoa trees will produce under a potentially record-shattering El Niño.

And the historical comparison is fascinating.

US ICE warehouse stocks (60kg bags):

June 2023: ~5.62 million.
October 2023: ~4.87 million.
April 2024, around the first major price peak: ~4.03 million.
October 2026: ~3.56 million.

Today’s ICE warehouse stocks are approximately 37% BELOW June 2023 and 27% BELOW October 2023.

They’re even below their level around the FIRST major price peak in April 2024.

Now look at GLOBAL ending stocks, which are a different measure from ICE inventories.

2022/23, before the crisis: 1.764 million tonnes.
2023/24, after the huge deficit: 1.272 million tonnes.
2024/25: approximately 1.309 million tonnes.

In other words, the previous crisis wiped out a massive part of the global inventory cushion. The old-crop recovery has helped replenish it, but that doesn’t mean we’re comfortably prepared for another supply shock.

And here’s what the bears seem to forget:

IN 2024, COCOA DID NOT NEED INVENTORIES TO REACH ZERO.

It just needed inventories to start falling and the market to realize that future production wasn’t sufficient.

The price reaction was extraordinary.

THE PREVIOUS COCOA RALLY HAD TWO MAJOR PEAKS:

April 19, 2024: $11,878/tonne in New York.
December 2024: approximately $12,900/tonne, a new record.

Two separate peaks, months apart.

The first came as the enormous 2023/24 deficit became impossible to ignore.

After a substantial correction, cocoa rallied again in December as concerns about future supplies resurfaced.

The market didn’t wait for physical exhaustion either time.

In April 2024, ICE warehouses still contained approximately FOUR MILLION BAGS.

And today we have fewer.

BUT HERE’S WHAT I FIND ABSOLUTELY INSANE.

We’re potentially heading into a MUCH STRONGER, possibly record-shattering, Godzilla El Niño than the one that preceded the 2023/24 cocoa crisis.

EXCEPT THIS TIME, WE’RE STARTING WITH LESS EXCHANGE INVENTORY.

In June 2023, ICE warehouses held approximately 5.62 million bags.

Today? Just 3.56 million.

That’s 37% LESS exchange-warehouse cocoa going into a potentially MUCH BIGGER weather shock.

A smaller visible inventory cushion. Demand showing signs of recovery. West African production forecasts deteriorating. Ecuador facing its own weather risks.

And the Harmattan season just around the corner.

Let that sink in.

The previous crisis sent cocoa to almost $13,000/tonne, with TWO separate major price peaks.

And the market didn’t need inventories to reach zero.

It just needed to realize they were heading in the wrong direction.

Now consider the setup.

El Niño is forecast to peak in December and persist into early 2027, potentially affecting not only the ongoing main crop but also the subsequent 2027 MID-CROP.

One cocoa season. Two harvests. A potentially historic weather event.

WHAT DIRECTION DO YOU THINK INVENTORIES ARE GOING TO MOVE IF PRODUCTION DISAPPOINTS?

Up forever?

The current stock rebuild is old-crop supply being carried forward. Once a production shortfall exceeds that cushion, inventories start falling.

If demand simultaneously recovers, they fall faster.

That’s basic arithmetic.

And the market is forward-looking. It doesn’t need to see the last bag leave the warehouse before repricing a looming shortage.

5. WHAT COMES NEXT?

The original thesis was always about timing.

June–August: early crop development and weather risks.

September–October: first test of the new main crop.

November–December: increasingly visible harvest performance, deteriorating supply forecasts and peak El Niño risks.

January–March 2027: continued El Niño conditions, the Harmattan season and the development of the upcoming mid-crop.

April–September 2027: the 2026/27 mid-crop, revealing more of the consequences of the preceding weather conditions.

We’re only entering the most interesting part of that timeline.

What I’m watching:

North American Q3 grindings later today.

Actual Ivory Coast and Ghana arrivals.

The approaching Harmattan season.

El Niño’s forecast December peak and persistence into early 2027.

Ecuadorian rainfall and production losses.

ICE warehouse stocks changing direction.

The development of the April–September 2027 mid-crop.

The downside risks are obvious. El Niño doesn’t automatically mean a cocoa shortage, strong arrivals could undermine the thesis, and inventories can continue rising for longer than expected.

But compared with June, we’ve got a dramatically stronger El Niño, sharply reduced surplus forecasts, recovering grinding activity and a much smaller exchange inventory cushion than before the previous crisis.

Cocoa has already rallied approximately 60%.

The last supply crisis produced TWO peaks, with the second reaching almost $13,000/tonne.

I’m not saying we’ll necessarily see those prices again.

But dismissing that possibility while WMO forecasts a potentially record-shattering El Niño strikes me as increasingly complacent.

Four months ago, I argued that the market was looking at the wrong crop.

So far, that thesis is playing out remarkably well.

And the part of the timeline I was most interested in is only just beginning.

Still long through my 2x leveraged cocoa ETC.

Still vegan. Still leveraged. Still bullish on chocolate beans.

Not financial advice. Don’t confuse a thesis that’s working with a guaranteed outcome.

I was scalping MU options and forgot about the market close time and bought $9k of 2DTE MU Puts by accident. luckily everything dumped hard overnight. Sold at open. would have been fucked if I held any longer.