saw this research note from goldman's christian mueller-glissmann in FT and it’s pretty wild.

almost 45% of s&p 500 stocks now have a negative beta. basically half the index is actively moving in the complete opposite direction of spy while headline numbers keep hitting aths.

the last time we saw a spike like this was literally at the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000.

everyone is watching spy green days thinking the whole market is fine, but under the hood top 10 big tech are basically disguised as the entire economy while 200+ companies are slowly bleeding out.

feels like this divergence can’t go on forever. curious if anyone else is rebalancing into cash/equal-weight or just riding nvidia till it snaps?

First placed $600mln during their IPO, then Abel added $330mln today.

Ok, these are rookie numbers for BRK but why??

It's against all Buffett stood for...high capital costs, high leverage, small moat, huge uncertainty regarding future CFs, questionable accouting practices.

I mean BSP is basically a PE-tech focused firm with no exit strategy, buying hugely discounted firms that lost of their edge due to AI killing SAAS. Its portfolio includes "giants" like AOL, AirTable, WeTransfer, Vimeo....WHO STILL USES THESE COMPANIES??

The WSJ published a nice article regarding BSP faulty accounting practices https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/at-bending-spoons-the-numbers-are-the-real-mind-bender-43f10bee pretty frightening picture.

I'm a bit confused by the direction of BRK under Abel to be honest, but anyway Buffett chose him so there must be valid reasons....

Tracing a price rise back to its source is the most useful exercise I know, so here's the chain for phones, with who said what.

1. Memory chips got more expensive. Counterpoint Research says memory chip prices shot up.

2. Phone makers passed it on. Phone prices are up about 20% this year.

3. People bought fewer phones. Global smartphone shipments fell 20% in the third quarter from a year ago, the weakest 3rd quarter since 2012.

4. Forecasters are going the other way on memory itself. Bloomberg Intel now expects the market for the memory used in AI chips (called HBM) to reach $641B by 2030, up from a previous forecast of $260B. It expects HBM3E and HBM4 prices to jump 30% to 45% in 2027, and the average HBM price to rise from $15.46 in 2026 to $34.94 in 2030. I saw this via a research account on X, not the original report.

5. This week's wobble. Memory stocks sold off hard after a Chinese chipmaker, CXMT, said it found a way to fit more memory on a chip. CXMT hasn't released performance numbers yet.

Which link in this chain do you think keeps its pricing power longest?

Jamie Dimon had a pointed question for corporate America.

Speaking to Bloomberg on Oct. 6 on the sidelines of a JPMorgan event in London, the bank's CEO asked whether companies, leveraged or not, are prepared for higher credit spreads when they have to refinance or borrow money.

Households would do well to ask themselves the same thing. Higher borrowing costs for companies tend to travel down the line to mortgages, car loans, and credit cards. Companies under pressure may also cut jobs or slow hiring to protect profits.

Hello,

I’ve recently started investing with a Robinhood brokerage a few months ago. I’ve learned a lot since then- it’s helped me understand and keep up with other investment mediums I have (a Roth IRA and a HYSA). I’m trying to create a solid financial foundation/literacy for myself at 21 while I can lose money and not have it be the end of the world.

I initially got the idea to invest in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing because I saw their business as crucial to our technological infrastructure: whether the AI bubble pops or stabilizes, semiconductors will always be in demand as our tech advances. I also have a long history of PC building and maintenance so I saw this as up my alley.

My main concern is with TSM- I entered way too high, the news with Elon further developed under the expectations of most; and the stock’s been falling since. I saw that the stock kept rising significantly in the time intervals (1W, 1M, 3M, etc), so I thought it’d be best to buy while things kept rising instead of missing the wave.

I tried to apply an incremental approach: I bought $500 first, then as the stock fell I bought another $500 worth in various increments. However, the stock keeps falling and I’m unsure of what I could do to soften the blow:

1. selling and re-entering at another price point seems redundant since I’ll be making back the money I lost. Why don’t I just hold and wait?
2. selling tax lots- I also thought I could sell my most expensive shares to bring my avg cost down as much as possible while still holding a decent amount.
3. Just let it be and let the market recover. I understand things happen cyclically in nature.

I’m open to all feedback, criticism, and solutions. Please don’t sugarcoat anything, if something is stupid, I want to know. Thank you

Let's start with the strong earnings from ASML, which I think are particularly important given the sell-off in AI and semi stocks.

The company reported €11.7 billion in revenue, €5 billion in net income and raised its full-year revenue outlook to €44 to 45 billion. One of the most important parts was management's commentary on demand and that’s that customers are already expressing interest in placing orders for its semiconductor manufacturing equipment for 2029 and even 2030.

In addition to this, ASML now expects demand to exceed its currently planned production capacity in both 2027 and 2028, despite plans to increase capacity.

Basically customers are planning capacity years in advance, which continues to support the longer-term investment cycle and thatt the underlying demand remains strong.

Moving to today's CPI, my base case remains for a slightly softer core reading on an annual basis, with headline inflation broadly in line with expectations and much of the increase coming from higher energy prices.

I'm lookin for core CPI at or below 0.23% MoM and potentially 2.4% YoY, against consensus of 0.2% and 2.5%, respectively. Headline inflation is expected at 0.6% MoM and 3.6% YoY, largely reflecting the increase in energy costs.

As usual, the breakdown will be more important than the headline number - I'll be watching shelter, used cars, airfares and wireless services, where some of August's inflationary pressure could reverse.

This would also be consistent with the broader disinflationary signals we've been seeing across developed markets, although the recent increase in energy prices remains a risk to that trend.

We also had some interesting comments yesterday from New York Fed President John Williams, who is Fed core leadership… You might recall that his September 29 speech helped push back expectations for an October hike, and his latest BBG interview has now taken some of the pressure out of expectations for further tightening in 2027.

He reiterated that one additional rate hike may be appropriate this year, but importantly, he currently sees no reason for the Fed to do more beyond that. In other words, the Fed is not necessarily done tightening, but neither does it appear to be preparing for a prolonged hiking cycle.

Risk is a core reading around 0.3% which would likely put some upward pressure on yields, while anything materially above that could bring an October Fed hike back into play and force markets to reprice the path of rates more aggressively.

Looking at the Treasury options market, investors continue to pay a premium for protection against falling bond prices and rising yields, especially at the long end of the curve.However, with bearish positioning already reflected in options pricing, a softer-than-expected CPI print today could trigger a sharp squeeze higher in Treasuries as downside hedges are unwound, pushing yields lower thus provide some relief for equities - mainly tech and long-duration names

I'll also be closely watching Anthropic's Q3 financials being shown to potential investors today (this will leak 100%). Broadcom CEO Hock Tan suggested the company wouldn't be overvalued at a $2T IPO, and given AVGO's exposure to Anthropic, he likely has a better view of the underlying business than most of us. Ofcourse, we should take such comments with a grain of salt, especially given Broadcom's interests, but it does tilt the odds towards a solid performance. With sentiment already this negative, any positive surprise could be enough to trigger a squeeze higher across AI stocks.

As for market positioning, SPY options are pricing a relatively contained move around today's CPI release- 0.68%, with no particularly large surprise being anticipated. Of course, that doesn't mean we can't get one… Given that headline could be higher we could be looking at a scenario of an initial knee jerk reaction followed by a fade if core is lower as per our epxecations.

Support is likely to be between 772 and 770 that scenario comes to fruition. Main resistnace remains 780. Volumes are neutral, so no clues there

The Qs caught a bid at $740 as per yesterday\s analysis, but remains neutral. Do not rely on 740 holding in case of a surprise,

while the broader Treasury options market continues to price in downside risks for bonds, particularly at the long end of the curve, TLT 0DTE options volume is heavily skewed towards calls so short-term traders are positioning for a softer CPI

TL;DR: ASML's strong earnings and commentary on demand extending into 2029–2030 reinforce the view that the underlying AI investment cycle remains intact despite the recent sell-off. For CPI, I'm leaning towards a slightly softer core reading, which could trigger a squeeze in Treasuries, push yields lower and provide some relief for tech stocks. The main risk remains core CPI at 0.3% or above, which would bring further Fed tightening back into focus. Anthropic's Q3 financials could also act as a positive catalyst for AI stocks given how negative sentiment has become. On positioning, SPY support sits at 772–770 with resistance at 780, QQQ needs to hold 740, while SOXX needs a sustained move above 750 for momentum to improve. Overall, I remain constructive, but today's CPI will dictate the near-term direction.

The month has been volatile, the week has been rough, and today has been a bloodbath. But with that, lots of HIGH BETA stocks I thought were too expensive could be presenting a great buying opportunity in the next 2 to 6 weeks in my mind.

What stocks come to mind for you?

I am interested in long term investing. I’ll be increasing positions in VOO and VGT, my largest holdings by far.

I’m also closely watching and considering the following:

1.LEU (I’m okay with this price, but while it’s falling, I’ll let it go further. I already hold a small position that’s slightly down now)

1. BE (I want to see it drop further, not sure how low yet. Would be relatively small position )

2. IonQ (interested in a very small position If it drops below $25)

I’m interested to hear what stocks others are waiting for long term entry points now that prices are dropping significantly

Lockheed Martin and Avio announced on 13 October 2026 at the AUSA Annual Meeting a strategic cooperation agreement. Under it Lockheed gains access to a share of the merchant solid rocket motor capacity that Avio's US subsidiary Avio USA is building at a new plant in Hurt Virginia. After qualification the initial work covers motors for the Extended Range GMLRS rocket and the Precision Strike Missile. Avio has launched an investment of more than $500 million in US motor capacity. The Hurt plant broke ground at the end of September 2026 with construction expected to finish in late 2028 and production to start in early 2029. This is the definitive step after a non binding term sheet the two companies signed in November 2025.

Source:
https://breakingdefense.com/2026/10/avio-lockheed-sign-agreement-for-solid-rocket-motor-production/

What I think this implies:

For Lockheed Martin (LMT) this gives contracted access to a third motor source on two of its highest volume munitions programmes. Solid rocket motors are the input both Lockheed and the current suppliers call the limiting layer of the US tactical missile supply chain. A qualified third source would add schedule insurance and more room to negotiate on propulsion once the plant is up.

Northrop Grumman (NOC) took over full contract production of GMLRS rocket motors for Lockheed in 2023 and has been expanding its tactical motor capacity. L3Harris Technologies (LHX) through its Aerojet Rocketdyne subsidiary supplies GMLRS motors to Lockheed under a January 2024 contract. A new merchant supplier competes for motor demand that has had few alternatives so any share that moves to the new plant comes out of their books.

Avio S.p.A. (AVIO) is the parent of the US subsidiary building the Hurt plant behind the stated investment of more than $500 million. Lockheed is now a contracted customer for a share of that capacity once the motors qualify.

The earliest thing to watch is a first firm production order or definitized contract from Lockheed to Avio USA for Extended Range GMLRS or Precision Strike Missile motors disclosed by either company or in Avio's periodic results ahead of the plant's expected completion in late 2028. Plant completion itself is the later check with first motor production in early 2029.

This does not matter if no Lockheed order to Avio USA for those motors is disclosed through the late 2028 plant completion or if Lockheed's demand continues to be met solely by Northrop Grumman and Aerojet Rocketdyne while Avio USA's first US motors go to other customers.

Happy to be wrong on the incumbents keeping all the motor share.

Sharing this chart (made by my analyst Nick Peart), which shows that a net 31% of Small Business Owners are planning to raise prices over the next 3 months. When the chart is overlayed with U.S. PPI (the white line), we can see the transmission from PPI into CPI.

(source: NFIB Small Business Optimism report released this morning)

Tan spoke Monday at an event in Singapore, per Bloomberg.

\- "A lot of investors have no clue what they are investing in."
\- He warned a shortage of capital could be the next limit on AI growth
\- He compared companies spending on AI to kids who burn through $10 of arcade tickets in 10 minutes

This is one of the very concerning things I’ve heard regarding the broader AI trade. $AVGO CEO is one of the most knowledgeable and influential people in the semi space. He’s telling you that not just the investors, but the companies themselves are playing a dangerous game and gambling their money on AI.

He compared enterprise AI spending to kids at a video arcade: parents give them $10 of tickets, they burn through them in 10 minutes, and “you haven’t learned anything.” That’s the “spending without a clear idea of productive use” angle.

Companies are essentially spending money on AI without necessarily having an idea on what they’re going to use it for. Just spending to have better models.

He also noted OpenAI’s ~$50B annualized revenue while still losing money on training/compute costs, questioning their longer-term financial health.

And to some degree we all know this, but I think an industry expert calling this out when it actually hurts his stock is brave. We need to be careful going forward imo.

Source: Bloomberg

South Korea's stock market suffered a sharp selloff on Tuesday, raising fresh questions about the sustainability of the global AI semiconductor boom.

The KOSPI index fell 5.46% to 6,035.35, after dropping more than 7% intraday. Samsung Electronics lost 7.39%, while SK Hynix plunged 10.09%. Foreign investors sold approximately 4.52 trillion won ($3.1 billion) worth of Korean equities.

The immediate trigger was renewed concern about competition from China's memory-chip industry. But the selloff also exposed a broader anxiety: Can the extraordinary growth in AI infrastructure spending continue?

South Korea's Stock Market Plunge Raises a Bigger Question About the AI Boom