Anyone with a photocopier could have copied our product. What they couldn’t copy was the trust of students and the media coverage that put 80,000 visitors on our site in a single day.
I think about that hall often now, because software is becoming the photocopier.
AI is turning code into a commodity. The second-order effect few people discuss is what this does to the software talent market.
If code stops being the differentiator, what happens to the premium paid to write it?
Here is what I expect:
→ Demand moves to moats that aren’t code. Proprietary data, distribution, physical operations, trust, regulation. Companies without one face margin compression. Companies with one won’t need a 500-person engineering team to defend it.
→ The compensation premium compresses. For a decade, pay was lifted by cheap capital and the rarity of execution. When execution becomes table stakes, benchmarks recalibrate. Not overnight, and not for everyone, but the direction is clear.
→ The top of the market pays for something different. Not just the best builder of scalable systems, but people who understand unit economics and CAC, who orchestrate AI workflows to do the work of a team, and who choose business leverage over engineering vanity.
I’m 7 months into my third startup. We have no moat yet. Building was never the hard part. Getting the right customer to trust us is.
Code used to be an asset. Pure code is now a commodity.
Distribution is the prize.
If you hire engineers: what do you screen for today that you didn’t two years ago?