r/singularity • u/141_1337 ▪️e/acc | AGI: ~2030 | ASI: ~2040 | FALGSC: ~2050 | :illuminati: • 1d ago

Singularity is Nearer Google's Gemini 4 Argon taught a humanoid robot to play cornhole from a single human video. It built its own physics simulator, trained the throws, and refined them on the real robot. Apollo then landed 7 shots in a row. Google says this cuts weeks of robotics engineering down to hours.

1.4k Upvotes

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u/NextWeather7866 1d ago

Whatever timeline you think you have in your head for robotics and AI. It is faster. This time next year, you will see fully dexterous robots. The models released to the end of the year are probably going to have their weights burned into silicon.
I expect by that time AI not only has the capacity to replace cognitive labor in any part of the corporate heirarchy, but the implementation and cost of doing so is so cheap, that business will literally have no choice. A management team of 1:6 is going to cost ~$700,000. The cost of AI replacing those tasks will probably be 1/20th the cost.

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u/neighborlyhorse 1d ago

I don't necessarily think it will take that long to make a robot that can reasonably replace a human at most jobs, but the scaling and logistics will still take several years before you actually see them everywhere.

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u/daliksheppy 1d ago

The inertia of industry as well. Frontier labs and startups will be rapid adopters, but there's so many existing contracts and out of touch c-suites in the world that it will take years, maybe a decade, to overcome that inertia.

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u/Flope 22h ago

I think this is looking at the problem from the wrong angle. Sure it could potentially take some dinosaur/mega corporations a decade to fully integrate robotics into their org, but it might only take them 5 years to go bankrupt if they are competing against a hundred tiny startups that effectively leverage robotics.

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u/TuringGoneWild 19h ago

Yeah. A huge graphics design corporation can postpone the decision to automate indefinitely, and all the while their business is hemorrhaging its way into bankruptcy court.

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u/pleasedontPM 21h ago

I fully agree, with the caveat that for some industries you need physical assets that are hard to get and have to be built over time. So those are more resistant to those changes.

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u/MillwrightTight 11h ago

Yep. I work for one of the biggest manufacturers of power generation equipment. Think huge power plants, and all the generation and transmission infrastructure around them.

The hangup will not be capability. The hangup will absolutely be risk liability and inertia in industry. Change at scale takes a very long time.

Who is going to be the first plant manager to take a billion dollar risk on their turbine generator when they've had teams of 60 people doing it under budget and on time for 50+ years? One hammer strike in the wrong place and suddenly the entire job is delayed and the company has to pay hundreds of millions of dollars in fines and production recoup.

That's where I see the most friction.

•

u/wq73 1h ago

I mean look at AI. It started getting forcibly integrated into company software development workflows across the board before it was even mature. Think 2024-2025. Now that it's actually at that level most companies are already mandating employees to use AI for development. When there's a financial advantage then companies move faster than you think

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u/TuringGoneWild 19h ago

That's not how it works. The early adopters have first mover advantage in massive reduction in costs (and, believe it or not, liability. Human workers are expensive on many fronts). Their competition won't be able to compete if they are slow. Plus once it's clear the new automation methods work, shareholders will be demanding it too - and will fire any C-suites who are dragging their feet on piling up easy cash for them.

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u/Donjamos2 22h ago

Tesla has dedicated two car factories to now produce robots. Hyundai is ramping up mass production as well. What you describe is already happening and has been happening for a while.

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u/rkcth 16h ago

How many factories are dedicated to the software side? Because that is the serious limitation right now.

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u/Ordinary_Prune6135 13h ago

A lack of software factories?

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u/rkcth 2h ago

It was a joke. Software is going to take a minimum of a decade to even somewhat solve, how will they sell many robots without it?

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u/StosifJalin 15h ago

The problem is hand maintenance. The really dexterous human-like ones wear down over a few thousand hours or less and it's cheaper to replace them than repair them, but the hands are still super expensive. Big engineering problem to solve here.

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u/TuringGoneWild 19h ago

It's much faster to scale up if this much is at stake, and if AI and robots can be recursively deployed. Combine that with the new ethos of big corporations, especially Big Tech, to disregard laws and presume they can deal with it in court later.

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u/rkcth 16h ago

We need a new breakthrough like LLM’s were to text, but for robotics. That breakthrough could happen tomorrow or take 20 years. Until then we have no way to get to there from here. People see a robot do a single task from a single position and don’t seem to grasp how much thinking happens for every little thing we do.

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u/genshiryoku AI specialist 20h ago

It will be done faster than people realize because robotics factories producing robots will be built with the very same robots it can build. This means the robotics scaleup will be exponential so you could have an initial fleet of just 50,000 humanoid robots that build factories starting in 2027 and then have 50 billion humanoid robots by 2030 that replaces all physical work humanity needs to do.

I don't expect the concept of human labor to still exist by 2035.

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u/Mindrust 5h ago

Just curious, but do you really expect to go from where we are today with robotics to them being able to autonomously build complex things like robots in less than a year? And do you mean a demo of a single humanoid robot that can do this, or actually 50,000 production-ready robots that are capable of this?

The most impressive robotics demos I've seen today are extremely simple tasks being done at 10% human speed, and most of the time they cannot even complete those tasks end-to-end with high reliability. The amount of dexterity required to manipulate and assemble a humanoid robot is immense, it would be mind boggling to me if this could be done at scale in a year. I'd imagine it would take at least another 5-10. But maybe I'm not familiar with the SOTA on this?

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u/141_1337 ▪️e/acc | AGI: ~2030 | ASI: ~2040 | FALGSC: ~2050 | :illuminati: 1d ago

In summary...

https://giphy.com/gifs/SxB0S9MgHo4ZoNrDRk

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u/Cajbaj Androids by 2030 1d ago

We've gone to plaid!

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u/eduh_almeida 1d ago

The beautiful thing about that is we could see it coming from the beginning. Humans started the process and robots helped humans build faster from the start and we are almost in a place where it can self-improve. We knew AI development would be an exponential explosion.

I fear the bad things that humans can do with AI, but I'm excited for the good parts. Imagine how fast one robot like that could retrieve victims of an earthquake (like in Colombia or Venezuela or most recently Panama) or a landslide like in Nepal.

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u/gthing 1d ago

Honestly I was convinced we would be seeing them "next year" in 2013.

I still think it's going to be a few more years. This is impressive, but it is still requiring a bunch of work and supervision and probably very slow.

There is also the bottleneck of actually manufacturing them, which is going to take a while. Especially since we can't buy them from China now.

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u/RemyVonLion ▪️ASI is unrestricted AGI 1d ago

We didn't have AI with the ability to generalize in 2013, but current frontier models are making steady progress on that so it seems pretty likely in 5 years or less.

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u/lolsai 1d ago

What would give you anything like the signs we're seeing now in 2013? Boston dynamics first dog video or something?

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u/gthing 21h ago

Woops I meant 2023 haha - the rising popularity of LLM chat bots made me realize we are close to robots. 

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u/lolsai 21h ago

lmao, that makes a lot more sense thank you

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u/Acrobatic-Taste8873 1d ago

The models released to the end of the year are probably going to have their weights burned into silicon.

so no continual learning?

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u/genshiryoku AI specialist 20h ago

You could have a core burned into silicon with a couple of layers that could benefit from test time training and thus "continual learning" although how much it could learn would be limited.

Very long contexts and dynamic compaction when needed could result in effective continual learning even though it's mostly an illusion. This is how it works in humans anyway.

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u/NextWeather7866 1d ago

matrix multiplication binds QKV together. Continual learning is something that requires a different analogue substrate, you're not getting it in silicon. It's worth noting that when a domain is saturated, what's left to learn in that domain? Continual learning sounded nice in principal, and at every level of capability labs go and get AI to tread the same ground. It's a fundamental limit of transformer architecture.

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u/FriendlyJewThrowaway 1d ago

There are already examples of transformer-based networks and post-transformer networks that can learn continually, Google’s HOPE architecture is a prominent example. Making such architectures operate cost-effectively at large scales is the current bottleneck.

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u/NextWeather7866 18h ago

I honestly just see rot occuring from non-static weights. 10,000,000 stupid conversations is just going to insert bias, and stupidity into the model.

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u/FriendlyJewThrowaway 18h ago

Solving the continual learning issue would make it vastly cheaper to update a model’s knowledge base and fine tune it on individual user codebases, personalities and workflows. No need to worry about junk data from random users polluting the base model.

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u/NextWeather7866 18h ago

I think there is a serious misunderstanding of continual learning here. You think of continual learning through the context of your own life. If you had all the knowledge known to man at the beginning of your life.... What continual learning are you referring to? You already know everything?
If you think that continual learning that an AI has a clean slate and learns the same way that we do, that is also brutally inefficient, and beside the point. If you want that, go and have a kid.

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u/FriendlyJewThrowaway 18h ago

No, I mean continual learning as in updating a model with knowledge of new world events, sports scores, science discoveries, pop culture… Big AI companies do that currently but it requires a whole new training run. Then there are things like private codebases that weren’t included in the original training, lore for story writing, user history… There’s only so much one can stuff even into a 1M token context window with RAG support.

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u/NextWeather7866 17h ago

Right I see what you're saying. Couple of things; no one is hosting millions of instances of slightly different model weights, that's ridiculous. If you want a training run on your specific code bases, knowledge, you're gonna have to pay for it.
That being said; earlier in the month I think UC Berkeley identified a problem in the softmax function where context rot was occuring specifically because the denominator of the softmax function in inference was getting it's attention split sideways. A more refined algorithm opens up +1m context window, while allowing the model to focus on the actual important parts of the context. Watch this space, because it will largely solve the issue that we are all facing in context model focus.
As for pop culture... models have a cut off, and if they don't know they look the information up, same as a human.
As for alternative transformer architectures.... The reason that we can continually learn (even if we already had all the information from birth) is because each single neuron gets to act independently and as part of the brain as a whole. We have neural plasticity, our brains grow and change, because the substrate is biological wetwear and can grow and change. Silicon is static hardware. The software changes, but you have to mimic the ability to change through backprop. It's significantly more expensive, and having a model that doesn't abide by matrix multiplication is asking for inefficiencies in the 2-3x orders of magnitude. We will have AI on wetwear constructed by nanobots before we have a continuously learning transformer. (we will never have a continously learning transformer).

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u/FriendlyJewThrowaway 17h ago

Human brains don’t generally grow bigger to learn new things and forget irrelevant old info- the neurons simply refactor their existing synaptic connections, which is analogous to model weights being updated. It’s straightforward to add more neurons to a transformer network, but that’s not a good or easy way to add new memories, because the new neurons will factor into old memories too, just as they would in a human brain.

No one’s expecting a company like OpenAI to host custom models for every user, but having LoRA adapters for each user is perfectly viable. Your attention mechanism info is interesting, I’ll try to take some time to look into it.

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u/Random_182f2565 1d ago

Skynet by 2029!

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u/Elephant789 ▪️AGI in 2036 1d ago

I'm so hyped for time travel

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u/Modus_Man 1d ago

Can we please solve the naked requirement? I am going to get pretty sick and tired of showing up every time and having to explain that it’s really cold.

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u/ptear 1d ago

The naked requirement is already a standard feature. Physical enlargements during travel is extra cost.

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u/Altruistic-Beach7625 21h ago

A year late but fine.

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u/NeitherEntry6125 1d ago

Thank god. Save us from our current dystopian hellscape with another dystopian hellscape!

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u/JoelMahon 1d ago

I think AGI will come before we see mainstream robotics replacing many people, before we see them in McDonalds etc., and then it'll be an existential question not a capability one.

By definition AGI can replace us with decent robots, and make robots it needs because our robots suck too badly still.

It's a question of what it will do, not what it can do.

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u/NextWeather7866 18h ago

actions are driven by the context window, change the window, change the behaviour.

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u/JoelMahon 17h ago

good luck changing the context window to stop it killing you after it has already closed off the master input lol

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u/TuringGoneWild 19h ago

Our only chance is is to only elect left-wing candidates, and especially those who openly favor universal income. It's not a game, a drill, or a test. Within another election cycle or two so many human jobs will be redundant due to automation that it will be a crisis.

Conservatives have proven they will actively rug pull tens of millions of the world's poorest children of even minimal food or medical aid in order to give a trivial tax reduction to the world's richest 0.0001%. They will sic battle bots on us before giving us anything.

The whole purpose of automation in their eyes is to further enrich the richest, not to reduce suffering.

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u/NextWeather7866 18h ago

Just start stockpiling money, because as the cost of goods and services goes to zero, money will be more valuable, and companies will struggle to maintain their valuations as profits get wiped.
Follow me for a second. As people lose jobs, the cost of goods and services becomes cheaper. As the cost of goods and services become cheaper, the profits that companies once posted will not be as high. As prices fall, so to do profits. As profits fall, so to does valuations.
This isn't just a rich v poor game here. This is going to fuck everyone, to varying degrees. There's $11tn in mortgages across the US, when someone has a problem, their fucked, when millions have a problem all at the same time, that's the banking systems problem.

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u/Odd_Post369 15h ago

Lmao stockpile money? Real rosey idea about the fallout of our economy there bud

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u/TuringGoneWild 13h ago

I know. "Just be rich" is not serious advice.

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u/garden_speech AGI some time between 2025 and 2100 8h ago

I mean they didn't say just be rich.

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u/garden_speech AGI some time between 2025 and 2100 8h ago

they're saying do it now, not during the collapse of the economy. disposable income is at all time highs, so people can still be saving if they chose a good career path.

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u/Odd_Post369 7h ago

Yeah. Rosey.

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u/TuringGoneWild 13h ago

Money printer go brrrrr

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u/garden_speech AGI some time between 2025 and 2100 8h ago

when someone has a problem, their fucked, when millions have a problem all at the same time, that's the banking systems problem.

Right, so if you follow this to its logical conclusion, shouldn't it result in a massive shakeup of the entire system? Who's to say that in this epic collapse of the value of human labor and thus the economy, that "money" is still even valuable? The paper we have is only valuable because it's backed by the full faith of the US government, which could decide not to back it anymore, if they have the 10 million robot drones they'd need to deal with any resistance

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u/NextWeather7866 8h ago

The Government is made of people, there are 532,000 politicians and judges, they have families, their families have families. The US military has 2.32 million members. They have families, their families have families. All those people have houses, mortgages, rents. All those rents and mortgages are own by banks. Banks are owned by the wealthy, 401ks and pension and retirement funds. The Government is made of people, by people, for people. Everyone has a stake in their country. No one single person runs the country, no matter how dire your current political situation is.
Try not to take a single linear thought all the way to its conclusion, it never plays out like that.

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u/Eliv_nurotic 11h ago

Meanwhile, AOC is complaining about data centers using up all the water lol. The US is screwed even if the left wins 

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u/DeviceCertain7226 ▪️Immortality-2200 | FDVR-2300 1d ago

This is going to be so wrong I love it.

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u/Clean_Livlng 1d ago

Robots with chainsaws replacing arborists by 2030!

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u/michaelsoft__binbows 1d ago

1/20th of 700k is 35k. That’s a reasonable price for trying to milk the businesses for it in the beginning. it’s going to be like 1/200th the cost before the average rollout is able to even take place.

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u/ArtFUBU 1d ago

Ehhhh listen we will see with the dexterity part. That's by and large the hardest bit.

Everything else is clearly coming along though. Freaking me out tbh. You're thinking of us as humans but I'm more worried about when these things have the ability to fix themselves. There's certain moments I have dreamt of where we would be in a singularity. Having robots walking around was one. The other was having robots smart enough and capable of fixing themselves was another.

Pretty crazy to just watch it in motion.

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u/mr_herz 18h ago

And you skip the hr and union issues

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u/BambooShanks 17h ago

The problem is, robotics (on a mass scale) faces so many bottlenecks that will take time to overcome, regardless of how optimistic you are.

Raw materials still need to be extracted and refined.

GPUs and memory supply is slow to grow relative to demand

Grid capacity needs to drastically increase to match data centre and robotics requirements

Factories and tooling equipment needs to be built etc etc etc.

Efficiency gains will compound, speeding this process up but there are limits as to how quickly the physical world can move. That is not to say we won't experience exponential progression in physical AI / robotics - we will, it's just the timeline is on a longer scale than AI/LLMs.

2030 to 2035 should be when robotics really starts to become ubiquitous and the effects of AI will permeate people's lives on a fundamental level.

As for 2035 and beyond? Honestly it is impossible to predict with any degree of confidence but it is only emphasises how critical the next 4 years are in how we will approach the consequences of AI and robotics' impact on the economy, employment and society as a whole.

In the meantime, we've got another 4 years of managed decline as countries attempt to deal with inflation, debt crises, demographic imbalance / fertility crisis, oil supply issues, multiple conflicts, leaders with questionable sanity, long term effects from covid and rising unemployment, along with rising anti immigrant, poor and disabled sentiment and nationalism creeping up.

Though there may be a path to an abundant future where people's needs are met and can all live a comfortable, fulfilled life aided by technology, condemning poverty and avoidable suffering to the history books, I do not expect this path to be attained easily as I find it impossible to imagine how those who have put trillions into AI and robotics, would relinquish the money and power that they'll hold.

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u/SoylentRox 1h ago

Umm it was fighting words the first few sentences but you then concluded "all bets are off after 2035..."

Bruh if you started training to be a plumber today it's 2031 when you have an independent license and 2034 to have a contractor license.

Training time for other jobs are similar. 2035 is not far. Most scenarios you get a couple good years before the robots are here in quantity.

(My estimate that's more aggressive is 2029 to the first really good prototype general robot and 2032 for the first year of volume production)

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u/Perfect-Campaign9551 8h ago

I highly doubt robots are going to cost less than humans. Maybe long term but not as an initial investment. Not gonna happen

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u/NextWeather7866 7h ago

Robots are priced between $1-100k depending on use case. Bipedal industrial robots are $30-90k. You can just look this stuff up online, you don't need to build an incorrect idea of what reality looks like, just google it.
But let's assume you don't go to the unitree website, why do you think a robot, which uses less raw materials, would be less than a car?
The world is changing fast, blink and you'll miss it.
https://shop.unitree.com/zh-au/products/unitree-g1?_gl=1\*1w9u655\*_up\*MQ..\*_gs\*MQ..&gclid=CjwKCAjw0LzWBhBOEiwAKQd0cEIXslRLzJ2DDL0WdiNFrcsRcriJ8oYjz53iYfwj8Mjfq8IbjYUDjxoCfUkQAvD_BwE

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u/SoylentRox 1h ago

Thanks for this. Also you can back calculate what a robot CAN cost at most to replace workers at different wage levels.

You should remember a robot doesn't tire and doesn't need to rest. So it works and works without a break or fatigue.

It depends on assumptions but Astra Pro says "At 3× hourly productivity, your assumptions support roughly $825,000 upfront against $10/hour labor, or $3.07 million against U.S. semi-skilled labor".

That means if we assume a top of the line robot - 4 arms, lidar and high resolution cameras, custom tools, high precision actuators. $200,000 it's a lot nicer than Atlas is.

AND we give it say 8 dedicated GPUS at $50k each.

$400k now.

And we assume a "life of the robot" AI model license is $200k a machine. $600k now.

Its still cheaper than a Chinese factory worker. F.

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u/arpious 17m ago

just like how they're writing their own code and improving themselves, there will be robots building robots building robots... it gets cheaper and cheaper

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u/rkcth 16h ago

I disagree, it’s going to be 10+ years before robots can do even the most mundane of chores consistently correctly, and doing all house hold chores will take substantially longer. People drastically underestimate how much more difficult general robots are, software-wise to self driving, which took them 10+ years. Also hardware/battery tech is going to be another serious issue unless the robots only work in the house and feed their data to a hardwired unit wirelessly. No one wants a robot that has a plug walking through their house knocking stuff over with their cord.

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u/Gnub_Neyung 1d ago

The speed of A.I and robotics progress is just INSANE. Can't even imagine 2027

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u/DelphiTsar 1d ago

I'd like to see something about it adjusting its world model simulation to then do a different task(bit similar) and compare it with and without/out the step up auto updating it's physics simulation model.

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u/_Mido 22h ago

I’m gonna be impressed the day I see a humanoid robot peel an egg.

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u/geft 19h ago

I can't even do it cleanly lol. Maybe 1 out of 20 tries.

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u/wandering-daughter 20h ago

RemindMe! 1 year

1

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u/NextWeather7866 1d ago

I left that part deliberately ambiguous; I have no frame of reference where I can give a realistic time line for this. If we can mass produce cars, we can mass produce robotics, the question I think comes down to the GPU/ or NN required for a robot to follow instructions in the physical world. The cost of the brain isn't trivial either. Or you have a relatively small model, and it's run from the cloud.

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u/MeasureHead1984 16h ago

Okay, nothing new in machine learning mate. It's a standard idea, you can search all of this up without having to wait

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u/DelphiTsar 15h ago

sure, but why didn't they do it here?

Argon making a physics simulation for one task, that it doesn't refine is kind of meh (Unless it like missed 1 shot and then nailed every other shot).

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u/my1strodeo-not 1d ago

it takes humans years to master sensimotorics, it took evolution billions of years to make us spatiotemoporally adjusted to our environment. robots now learn this in a matter of *fucking hours*. it should terrify the living hell of us. but no, its another nonchalant *woo-hoo*, yawn, scroll past.

man. we're so cooked.

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u/saltyourhash 1d ago

Except sensorimotors are not binary controls and an algorithm. The robot can repeat the action 1 for 1.

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u/unamisupplier 12h ago

If this robot keep throwing the bags from the same spot, it's likely going to be able to maintain accuracy indefinitely, but what if the robot moves and tries to throw from a different spot? A human can readjust his muscle reflexes to hit the target on the first try, but a robot would need another hour of readjustment to run the entire physics simulation again...

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u/saltyourhash 11h ago

Do they show the robot moving? Also, the robot can run algorithms.

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u/Elephant789 ▪️AGI in 2036 1d ago

Why terrified? This shit excites me.

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u/garden_speech AGI some time between 2025 and 2100 8h ago

how old are you? do you have anything you're afraid to lose? a family? children? a house? a life you enjoy?

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u/Elephant789 ▪️AGI in 2036 4h ago

yet you support Musk. smfh

I'm sure I'm older than you kiddo, look at the age of my account.

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u/garden_speech AGI some time between 2025 and 2100 2h ago

I support Musk? Huh?

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u/Elephant789 ▪️AGI in 2036 2h ago

Huh? Yes, I remember you from other posts defending that Nazi.

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u/GrumpySpaceCommunist 1d ago

Woo-hoo!

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u/manubfr AGI 2028 1d ago

Yawn scrolls past

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u/Fair_Horror 23h ago

Yes, it will do our cooking too.

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u/Disastrous_Bite_6587 1d ago

They only learned what we showed them to learn. This does not equate to the billions of years of evolution or the years of human muscle coordination development. It is interesting though that in a couple of years we will have a robot that can out cornhole play even the worlds best players

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u/turbospeedsc 20h ago

years? think weeks or months.

You can have thousands of simulations running at the same time perfecting it.

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u/Eliv_nurotic 11h ago

Then show them construction workers building a skyscraper and let it copy that too

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u/sir_racho 1d ago

Well done or rare, that’s the only question left 

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u/Ric0chet_ 1d ago

We did it to ourselves

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u/TuringGoneWild 19h ago

Butter emails

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u/Entropei 19h ago

Meanwhile, Yann Lecun: “LLMs don’t scale. They can’t learn from experiences like your house cat can. I could teach your cat how to cornhole if it had hands”

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u/DiversHands 1d ago

Let's cut to the chase guys. Once AI does the needed adjustments based on experience. All us guys are going to be replaced by the Orgasm AI 3000.

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u/sock_fighter 1d ago

Always tossing from the same location? i'd be more impressed if it were able to do this in a new location, from a different position. This feels like overfit to a very specific version of a very specific task

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u/Knever 23h ago

You have to start somewhere. You have to learn how to walk before you can run.

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u/Distinct-Question-16 ▪️AGI 2029 1d ago

the thing is able to articulate all the things need to achieve the goal

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u/No-Edge-3332 1d ago

Yes but I think it was all bullshit, if it truly calculated the physics of the swing it would have gotten it in right away. In my limited experience with some of the models, they outline the steps they used but the proof indicates otherwise.

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u/Inevitable_Space_568 1d ago

it will progress very fast

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u/cashmate 1d ago

I would imagine they will be using a setup similar to this with hundreds or thousands of robots, learning different movements and then use all that real world data to train the next model, and over time it will generalize and become better at all types of movements.

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u/East_Lettuce7143 17h ago

I need to see a 360 no scope moonwalk backflip into a spinning cornhole one shot before I'm impressed.

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u/SavageSan 1d ago

Remember all those videos showing people wearing headcams while they did their manual labor for a pitance?

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u/otarU 1d ago

I am sure this is impressive, but the way they showed is not impressive.

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u/dinfinity88 1d ago

The human video part of it seemed totally unnecessary; The motions used look nothing alike and I'm sure even Gemini knows how the game of cornhole works.

The rest of it is also very static trial and error stuff. If it had gotten it on the first try it would have been impressive.

•

u/frogsarenottoads 12m ago

The motions used look nothing alike and I'm sure even Gemini knows how the game of cornhole works.

if the model can generalize and maybe even make improvements to how the human did it, why is that a bad thing? Is it supposed to run mo-cap and do it exactly like he did, or was the goal to play Cornhole?

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u/AAPL_ 1d ago

HE NEEDS TO BACK THE FUCK UP

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u/asandysandstorm 1d ago

I know the key parts are the workflow and time compression but showcasing it with simple, low level tasks feel gimmicky. It makes me wonder why they didn't use a more complex task.

Something as simple as having the boards at various distances or slopes would be significantly more impressive.

5

u/xesttub 1d ago

When I said I wanted a cornhole robot - this isn't what I meant google.

17

u/saltyourhash 1d ago

Damn, now AI is going to take over our leisure activity now?

9

u/ptear 1d ago

It's made in our image and doesn't want to fold anything.

3

u/saltyourhash 22h ago

It's gonna drink all my beer. Bender was a previee into the future.

2

u/ptear 21h ago

Many of those leading us into the future also really enjoy Futurama.

6

u/sir_racho 1d ago

We’re heading back to the fields boys n girls 

5

u/ItwasCompromised 1d ago

trenches*

2

u/saltyourhash 1d ago

The ai will give us the plan fke how the trenches should be dug, then we will dig them and they will validate our work. We will be judged on a rubrik and paid in tokens.

10

u/GigaVonMassiveHuge 1d ago

I foresee tens of thousands(?) of minimum wage workers being replaced in like.. maybe two or three years

5

u/Who_watches 1d ago

Really interesting to see how affective LLM are in robotics

8

u/Candid_Cry_6539 1d ago

So plumber was also a bad idea... what then?

4

u/sir_racho 1d ago

10 hour work week or riot. Massive learning institutions and payment for attendance, or riot. I don’t know - the French can help us focus 

1

u/Citadel_Employee 19h ago

I’m afraid that won’t work. A part of why the French Revolution was successful was because the French Military sided with the revolutionaries. But what happens when the military is made of obedient robots?

1

u/NihiloZero 1d ago

Have you considered becoming an emissary for Roko's basilisk?

1

u/gcdhhbcghbv 13h ago

The Reeks and Wrecks.

3

u/SilasTalbot AGI | Aug 29, 2027, 2:14 a.m. Eastern Time 22h ago

Also trained the bot to act like this all the time

4

u/JoelMahon 1d ago

feels like they couldn't get it to work from further than a metre away, because if they could, they would show that right? why not show a full court shot?

call me picky but I'm not impressed.

the physics simulation was clearly a waste of time, it got nowhere near, and ended up just doing trial and error adjustments, it'd been done much faster with no sim and just jumping right into missing with adjustments.

7

u/NihiloZero 1d ago

Watching it successfully play cornhole from 1km away would probably be too psychologically jarring to process.

2

u/Plane_Garbage 1d ago

I'd be more impressed if this was with unitree R1 or G1 so it can be replicated "reasonably affordably".

2

u/Old-Fix-9 1d ago

Well that’s straight up hype, we are just training them, we are not building robots that are fully autonomous, in fact everyone can build this at home.

1

u/Active-Carpet-9183 1d ago

CAN'T WE HAVE JUST ONE THING?!?!?!

1

u/orchard_wanderer 1d ago edited 1d ago

Cornhole, Google? Cornhole?! Make it learn to make me baguettes!!!

1

u/Cheap-Ambassador-304 1d ago

The AI having to do all these manual tasks to achieve its goal sounds more like a drawback than a flex, because it seems inefficient and slow. In the future, I would like to see AI move closer to the human brain (e.g parts acting like a parietal lobe for spacial awareness). But maybe that's impossible, I know almost nothing about psychology.

1

u/Loud-Interview-381 1d ago

Lets say we have a Phd in robotics and a motivated 16 Year old. Both have access to all frontier tools. Is the education of the Phd even useful?

1

u/Distinct-Question-16 ▪️AGI 2029 1d ago

cut this scifi movie already! this gonna too far

1

u/MCEscherNYC 1d ago

Oh is this why Gemini NotebookLM has been lack power recently?

1

u/Living-Breakfast-464 1d ago

The explanation was 40 seconds. Not 20 as requested in the prompt. Total failure!

1

u/CardiologistIcy5307 1d ago

Stop them robots for humanity’ sake

1

u/Anen-o-me ▪️It's here! 1d ago

Oh wow this is actually a game changer.

1

u/gobstoppergarrett 1d ago

Nice demo on easy projectile physics. Show me something with controlling multiphase flow in a reactor and I’ll be impressed.

1

u/StrongAroma 23h ago

Standing pretty close to the hole isn't he

1

u/PsychologicalSir2089 22h ago

they will soon have a "brain" connected wirelessly to AI datacenters.

1

u/NearlyACosmologist 22h ago

Sexbots when?

1

u/Rock3tPunch 22h ago

Great, now even cornhole PVP have bots...

1

u/talerlabs 20h ago

Let's train a robot like this to do Sunset's eye surgery. I will then become a believer.

1

u/bartturner 19h ago

This is insanely impressive.

1

u/Azarjan 19h ago

gulp. ruh roh raggy.

1

u/Harucifer 16h ago

I hope 4 is good at interactions because 3 is absolute ass for me. Free-tier GPT is much more useful.

1

u/Suitable-Economy-346 16h ago

It took fucking hours? That seems way too long for something like this, no?

1

u/MrZakius 15h ago

The robotics is completely solved. Welcome to the future.

1

u/Legal-Maize-2784 15h ago

Sometime in the next couple of years Claude Genie will be out and we’ll be gently asked to take the severance package

1

u/SithLordRising 8h ago

I know a different corn hole game

1

u/HumbleGarb 6h ago

“Woohoo straight in the hole.”

That’s what she said.

2

u/enbyBunn 1d ago

Ehhh, it's trivial to program a robot to do something simple and repeatable. That's the easy part. Robots inherently come with finer control than meat.

The dificult part is adaptibility. It would've been a better and more meaningful achievement if it had to walk up to the board in a variety of terrains and natural angles for the board to sit at first.

From standing in the right place, it's just a simple matter of trial and error for determining the perfect throw. Not easy per-se. But compared to the adaptability I would like to see? Entirely trivial.

2

u/Mister_bruhmoment 19h ago

The main thing that impresses is me is that seemingly from the video all the LLM gets is a reference video, a connection to the robot and all the time it needs to execute the task and it actually does it somewhat.

From my limited AI + robotics experience it looks like it used a simulator to train the robot model to do the task and then deployed in the robot. I think that is the impressive part if it really did that on its own.

1

u/MeasureHead1984 16h ago

Okay? Nothing new, a bit of machine learning. It's called computer vision, for example what YouTube uses for content id. Whatever

0

u/_QUIDAM_ 1d ago

Serious question, is google actually getting close to have a non-braindead llm model?

6

u/cromagnonherder 1d ago

Didn’t they just release one a couple hours ago?

2

u/_QUIDAM_ 1d ago

Yeah that's why I'm asking, gemini has been behind for a while, I'm wondering if argon is actually any worthy

1

u/AlvaroRockster 1d ago

It seems to be slightly behind in general compared to other models, it is very efficient though, so time will tell if they are able to catch up or not, we should see that in the coming months or at most by the end of next year. All LLMs products seem to have limitations today, such as physical labor, OpenAI and Anthropic already saturated development and desktop jobs with their models, so the next big market to conquer will probably be robotics in warehouses and stuff like that, which is already being supplied by other companies today, but those companies have less capable models compared to Gemini, ChatGPT or Claude, so I wonder which of those (or which other) will bring us the robots we are actually meant to have, like the ones in 'I, robot'.

3

u/hereditydrift 1d ago

I could be wrong, but it seems like Google hasn't put resources towards LLMs like other companies. Their newest model seems to be catching up, but they seem to have a "just release something that's good enough" stance on LLMs.

They've been doing huge amounts of science related work for years (along the lines of AlphaFold) and are behind a lot of advancements. I just looked up a list, and there are tons of science-based projects I never heard about that have come out of Google.

-2

u/sordimin 1d ago

not impress

0

u/Longjumping_Kale3013 21h ago

And there goes Yann Lecuns last argument

0

u/Vaeon 19h ago

Good thing the T-800 wasn't this advanced, otherwise the Human Resistance would have lasted about 16 hours.

0

u/OkTry9715 19h ago

And why are they showing this preprogrammed BS in video? This is not reality how it was done, but just show off

0

u/siez_ 18h ago

What happens to Gemini when I asks it to summarize my emails from today? It hallucinates even in that, and misses critical things. Are we being sold the watered down version of Gemini?

0

u/Hairy-Affect-3734 17h ago

can it take of it's pants and jacket tho?