Source: https://www.cathiesark.com/arkg-trades-of-cmps

I know that the performance of Cathie Wood has been poor (to say the least) the last few years. But the CMPS purchase history of ARKG is interesting, and it's a clear sign of accumulation. The supposed difference I think this time, is that previous times (February, July) the fund bought CMPS at peaks. While now it is supposedly at the bottom of a "channel".

From twitter:

J&J's Spravato just had its best quarter ever: $624M in Q3, up 36% YoY. US sales were $559M (+38%), and it's at $1.68B YTD (+40%) [1].

With more patients hitting their deductibles and using leftover FSA dollars by year-end, I expect Q4 to continue higher. For reference, another 7% QoQ growth from Q3 to Q4 would translate to $668M in sales in Q4 and $2.34B in FY26.

In this scenario, to reach the $3B–3.5B in 2028 sales J&J has targeted, per Reuters [2], Spravato would need to grow 13–22% annually over the next two years, even as growth slows from 40%+. In a recent conference, Compass management said they see "no reason why they will not hit that number" [3].

On the call, CEO Joaquin Duato called it "impressive growth… reflecting strong demand in treatment-resistant depression," and J&J credited "strong physician adoption and increased patient demand" [4].

In addition to growing physician and patient adoption, certified treatment centers are increasing by roughly 500 per quarter, to about 8,500, per Compass [5]. Given all of the above, I expect Spravato to keep growing and meet its sales targets, even if COMP360 launches next year.

More importantly, a point worth emphasizing: even though people with TRD have few treatment options, Spravato reaches only about 100K of the 2.8–4.0M US adults with TRD, roughly 3% [6]. Perhaps that grows to 4–5% in a few years, but the vast majority of people with TRD still wouldn't be getting it.

A quick Google search of psilocybin over the last week will yield the following results:

- Existential distress with lung cancer study

- Concussion study

- Veterans with depression trial

- CTE study

- Eased suicidal thoughts study

- Fentanyl and alcohol use study

- Insights and well-being study

- Chemotherapy relief

This is the God molecule, friends. We all know this. And every barrier, hurdle, or temporary setback comes back to the molecule.

And on a more serious note, there have been a lot of suicides in the news this week. It’s the most tragic thing. So many people need so much help help and this has the potential to be the most meaningful relief they’ve ever had. There hasn’t been a new treatment for PTSD in ~30 years~.

Stay the course.

Solvonis Therapeutics PLC (LSE:SVNS, OTC:SLVNF)

Compass Pathfinder Limited is another name for Compass Pathways. Redacted version of daubert opinion will be submitted on October 16th. Hard to tell which way this is going right now.

Couldn’t help but think of shrooms when I saw this passage.

“Here’s the takeaway: This generation is ready for relief. They know they’re unwell, they just don’t know how to fix it. Every young person I talk to is searching for ways to improve their mental wellbeing.”

Fellow comrades - stay the course. As Papa John once said: “Stay tuned. The day of reckoning will come.”

Hope this is somewhere around the bottom for CMPS.

They're discussing both HPL003 and HPL004.. unlikely this will be HPL003 topline data but at least we'll get an understanding of next steps for HPL004

From the fresh bulletin, (I hope it’s ok to quote a chapter):

”We have long expected Compass to base its pricing on Spravato’s annualised price, and company leadership has now confirmed as much.
Compass says the annualised price of Spravato sits at around $50-65,000, and that it will price its psilocybin product on a per-dose basis. It will base that per-dose price on an assumption of 3 doses per year (it assumes patients will receive 2-4 doses per year, and three is the middle of that range). As such, the price of a dose of Compass’ psilocybin may sit in the range of $17-22,000”
(Bolding is mine)

Following up on Krakends comment in the weekly thread, the clinical trials page shows that the primary completion of the HPL003 phase 3 study was on 2026-09-04. So based on that date, If data lock occurred around September 28 - October 5, the announcement window is looking like October 20 - November 6 (according to Claude)

Looking at the primary completion date, this adds weight to the most bullish reason for the insider buys by Eric So, Paul Glavine and Michael Halstead is that they can already see who is rolling over from this Approach trial to the Extend long term trial, if they see the rollover rate is super high, that is an incredibly positive signal for the success of Approach's topline data readout. They also have access to dropout rates, safety logs etc.

This is also a reason they have not commented on HPL004 next steps (they committed to annoucing this before end of Q3) as they are in a blackout now and have been since Sept.

Is constant selling pressure standard before obvious major catalysts in pre-revenue biotech?

I've followed the space since 2022, and I'm used to volatility, but the past two weeks have been exceptionally brutal.

This thread is for questions and general discussion relating to the psychedelics industry. The weekly thread will refresh every Monday morning before stock market open.