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u/DarkSide830 Uncle Rico's uncle Sep 24 '25
I love Sanchez, but Skenes has been over half a run better in ERA. That's a big deal.
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u/stonedkayaker Sep 24 '25
20 years ago, Sanchez might take it. In 2025, its Skenes all the way, unfortunately.Ā
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u/DarkSide830 Uncle Rico's uncle Sep 24 '25
Honestly though, I'd feel like it would be a bit cheap if we found out voters didn't vote for Skenes because of the wins for example. That really is a silly thing to care about.
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u/TheeBillyBee Sep 24 '25
If the Cy Young award is determined by nothing other than numerical statistics, why even vote for it? Why not just give it to the guy with the best stats? A computer could best determine the winner in that case.
Additionally, I think that a player's contribution to their team's season should be taken into consideration. Season-long performances from guys like Sanchez and Peralta have elevated their teams to strong playoff positions. A guy like Skenes has elevated his team's season from a dumpster fire to an embarrassment.
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u/RobWroteABook Sep 24 '25
Of course it's based on stats. Awards are based on performance, and performance is measurable. How you measure it is open to debate, but it's absolutely measurable.
A computer could best determine the winner in that case.
This is silly. Just because stats are important doesn't mean there's any one single number or any certain formula to determining a winner.
If Skenes was a Phillie every single one of these arguments would be laughed out of the park.
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u/xeeblyscoo Sep 25 '25
Skenes having 10 wins is also a testament to how important he is for the pirates since they donāt have an offense
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Sep 24 '25
[removed] ā view removed comment
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u/DarkSide830 Uncle Rico's uncle Sep 24 '25
That's not a massive difference. It's an inning per two games. The gap in innings for Burnes and Wheeler in 2021 was much larger.
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u/pgm123 GalƔpagotian Sep 24 '25
Also, Wheeler was forced to go deeper into games because the Phillies bullpen was historically bad. That actually hurt his ERA. This really isn't the issue this year.
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u/bsnameidk Sep 24 '25
Mathematically, he would have to get absolutely rocked in 2 outings to raise his era to Sanchez. Have you watched skenes pitch? He aināt getting rocked like that
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u/swalsh21 Sep 24 '25
Thatās not close to enough innings to even think about making up the difference unfortunately
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u/Di5pel he's the fucking lizard king Sep 24 '25
15 innings is not a big difference and would not account for an entire 0.5 ERA
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u/SwugSteve Kruk's Hokas Sep 24 '25
huge fan of sanchez but this picture 100% asserts that Skenes should get the Cy Young
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u/Will-from-PA Chooch-oo Train Rider š Sep 24 '25
Yeah but I donāt like the cut of his jib
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u/LisaLoebSlaps Trea Turner's official bodyguard Sep 24 '25
Looks like he had quite the battle with acne.
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u/exorthderp Sep 24 '25
Quality starts he clears skenes by a few. Thatās a Sabre that these writers tend to love.
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u/Rcmacc Chase Utley Sep 24 '25 edited Sep 24 '25
QS is not a Sabre stat. It was actually created by an Inquirer writer
But they value lower IP and lower ERA over more IP every time. This is gonna be really similar to Snell beating Verlander or Sale beating Wheeler or Burnes beating Wheeler
https://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/awards_2018.shtml#all_AL_CYA_voting
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u/eek_the_cat Sep 24 '25
It works out to essentially 15 fewer innings with 15 fewer earned runs.
That's the point people typically stick with.Ā It's better to pitch fewer innings if those innings are higher quality.Ā Even a bad bullpen will do better than a 9 ERA in those 15 innings.
There is more nuance to it than this, so I wouldn't strictly look at it this way, but it's a valid point.
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u/smeared_dick_cheese Kyle Schwarber Sep 24 '25
I understand what youāre saying bc of ERA and SO% but as a fan of the team, the main thing you want out of your starters is the highest number of quality innings possible. Sanchez is doing that a little better than Skenes this year.
I still think Skenes is the Cy Young, but itās closer than people think. The performance we got out of Sanchez this year was on par with or possibly slightly better than Skenes from the teamās perspective (with innings mattering more from the teams perspective than SO%).
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u/sjphilsphan Sep 24 '25
ERA plus is 211 that's insane
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u/necrosythe Orion Kerkering Sep 24 '25
Except its kind of not because ERA is garbage. Idk why people have such a strong opinion on the stat even though they've never cared enough about it to research it.
With that said theyre pretty much dead even and just the optics of skenes pitches alone probably warrants the Cy young in a race this close. But th ERA should be ignored and the IP matters. So all this graphic tells me is that they're in a ridiculously close race.
Not that the voters will see it that way
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u/sjphilsphan Sep 24 '25
ERA plus is not standard ERA
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u/necrosythe Orion Kerkering Sep 25 '25
I am well aware lol. Its still 95% ERA which is bad. Hilarious that so many people would donevote again despite literally never researching earned runs.
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u/esperadok Rhys Supporter Sep 24 '25
Sanchez has more wins and a lower walk rate, which are the two most important stats
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u/Rdw72777 Sep 24 '25
Wins is one of the least important pitcher stats, if not THE least important.
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u/esperadok Rhys Supporter Sep 24 '25
What? Is this a joke? The goal of pitching is to help the team win the game. Wins measure that
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u/Rdw72777 Sep 24 '25
No wins do not measure that. They measure whether your team scored more runs while you were in the game stayed ahead until the completion of the game. A starting pitcher can give up 8 earned runs in 5.1 innings amd so long as they were winning 9-8 when they were yanked and the. win 9-8 that counts as a pitcher win.
Wins are not an important pitching stat.
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u/SwugSteve Kruk's Hokas Sep 24 '25
is this satire? or are you actually unaware that pitcher wins have been considered a completely meaningless stat since like 2005?
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u/Different-Flan1984 Sep 24 '25
Are you kidding, I guess you believe hitting wins championships? I'm thinking the Phillies three southpaws might disagree.
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u/Sh1rvallah Sep 24 '25
You can't really be this out of touch can you? I'm gonna assume you're a troll and move on.
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u/Rdw72777 Sep 24 '25
Youāre just really wrong on this.
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u/Sh1rvallah Sep 24 '25
Have fun in the 90s!
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u/Rdw72777 Sep 26 '25
I replied to the wrong person. As you can see further up, I was the one originally saying wins are a useless pitching stat. I just replied to the wrong post later on.
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u/SwugSteve Kruk's Hokas Sep 25 '25
uh no, I think pitching is insanely important. But basically everyone has known for years how useless the "pitcher wins" stat is at measuring an actual pitchers abilities. It's basically completely phased out of any serious debate about pitchers' abilities.
"PItcher Wins" measures nothing. It's arbitrary and relies on the team more than the pitcher themselves.
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u/2hats4bats Sep 24 '25
The numbers that Skenes is leading in are the ones that the voters tend to favor. Heās their golden boy anyway. Doesnāt diminish the amazing season that SĆ”nchez had.
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u/Will-from-PA Chooch-oo Train Rider š Sep 24 '25 edited Sep 24 '25
I meanā¦ if weāre being purely analytical Sanchy only leads Skenes in WAR, which theyāre both within the margin of error of each other. Which btw, Skenes leads Sanchez in fWAR 6.1 to 6.0.
Skenes has ERA/ERA+, WHIP, FIP, K rate, K/BB, and Opponent OPS. I donāt think itās a golden boy scenario. I believe that had Wheeler kept pitching heād have probably gotten it. Skenes has just been that good. And the kicker is that this is a 23 year old doing this. Assuming he doesnāt get derailed by injury, his prime is going to be nothing short of legendary.
Of course, I still want Sanchez to win. But thatās because I think only our players should ever win awards and anyone else winning means itās rigged
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u/MikeMahtookTooMuch Bryan De La Cruz Sep 24 '25
You couldn't possibly make a case for Sanchez over Skenes looking at these numbers. I agree Wheeler would have gotten it over Skenes had he kept pitching healthy because his season would've been comparable or better. I also believe voters owed Wheeler for screwing him royally by giving the CY to Burnes who had been coddled with 5IP starts for much of the season, while Wheeler's ERA only grew because of how high it was in the 7th-9th inning of games.
It's just amazing how far Cristopher has come. The guy worked his way from a struggling middle reliever/spot starter into a Cy Young contender. Skenes burst onto the scene already a phenomenon, and now Sanchez is being mentioned in the same breath as he is.
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u/pgm123 GalƔpagotian Sep 24 '25
Which btw, Skenes leads Sanchez in fWAR 6.1 to 6.0.
And more people favor fWAR for pitchers. This is a bit like 2018 when Nola led pitchers in bWAR, but deGrom won the Cy Young after comfortably leading the league in fWAR (Nola was 7th). Iirc, bWAR cuts pitchers more slack for bad defense.
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u/No_Document7474 Sep 24 '25
writers are drooling over the opportunity to write about giving the award for the best pitcher to the guy on the worst team. it was going to be a long shot for anyone
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u/Steppyjim Malachiās Babysitter Sep 24 '25
Skenes deserves the cy young easily
Sanchez has had an elite year.
Both are true and valid takes
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u/Independent-Cow-4070 Christopher Sanchez Sep 24 '25
So it's skenes?
Without the mets and Dodgers game he had a chance but those games ruined it for him
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u/Dihydrogenmonoxide-_ Sep 24 '25
Look, Sanchez has had a fantastic year but Skenes has been unbelievable. His era is half a run better.
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u/Logical_Lefty Sep 24 '25
Sooo Skenes? Sanchez has been nothing short of amazing this year but the stats aren't lying, half a run of ERA by this stage of the season is massive.
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u/Swimming_Elk_3058 Sep 24 '25
Phillies pitchers and finishing as runner up in Cy Young voting to guys who pitched fewer innings than them name a better combo
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u/SorosIsScum28 H20 Era Sep 24 '25
Now imagine Skenes on a team like the Phil's. Prob a sub 1 ERA since our defense is actually competent.
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u/theweebdweeb Sep 24 '25
A Phillies pitcher may never win a Cy Young for the rest of my life.
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u/Status-Ability-6867 Sep 24 '25
cant think of it like this. skenes throws 101, so the odds say hes likely to blow out his arm at some point. you never want to see it happen, but probabilistically, its gonna happen. if that aligns with another dominant sanchez season, hes got a shot.
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u/MessageDry3925 Sep 24 '25
Let me make one observation. Take a look at Skenesā ERA in the 6th inning. Itās 4.87. If he goes deeper in games and throws 17 additional innings, his ERA would almost certainly be higher.
Ask yourself why he didnāt and why he has a lot of 5 inning starts in the second half.
Probably because the Pirates have 68 wins and have been out of contention before opening day.
Justice for Cristopher!
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u/thekingcola Sep 24 '25
Skenes could give up a run an inning for the next 15 innings and would still finish with the same ERA as Sanchez. If his ERA was 9.00 in the 6th inning, maybe that argument would make sense.
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u/zabrakwith Sep 24 '25
They are both so deserving. Sadly I think Skenes will win. If sachez has a cy young bonus, 100% Middleton pays it out.
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u/Zrob8--5 Sep 24 '25
Love Sanchez, but this one was always gonna be Skenes.
I've also been waiting for by bet on him to pay out for months now
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u/Different-Flan1984 Sep 24 '25
Has a 500 pitcher ever won the CY ? Carlton won 27 on a team lots worse and earned his.
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u/caelisepic42 Sep 24 '25
I know skenes gonna get it and deserves it but this shows that the race isnt as runaway as people think. Cris got more WAR Ip and a better walk percentageĀ
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u/EmerysMemories1106 Sep 24 '25
My first thought is think of all the games that Sanchez pitched amazing and didn't get a decision, like last night. But then I thought about the fact that skenes probably has way more games like that than Sanchez, so nevermind
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u/IrishExitor Sep 24 '25
The writers have perpetual hard-ons for Skenes, Skubal, Judge and Ohtani. Someone would have to have had 2x the results as them to top those guys in the voting. Theyāve been Sharpieād onto the ballots since Winter.
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u/RackyRackerton Sep 24 '25
Since June 8th, number of starts in which each pitcher has thrown more than 6.0 innings.
Sanchez: 14 starts
Skenes: 2 starts
Skenes has had a great year, but doing what Sanchez has done helps a team win more games than what Skenes has done. Skenes gets the ERA title, but Sanchez deserves the Cy Young in my opinion.
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u/double_fail Sep 24 '25
Easier to pitch when nothing is ever on the line
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u/TheAnswer310 Sep 24 '25
It's probably harder to pitch when you know you'll be lucky if your team even scores for you.
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u/SigaVa Sep 24 '25
People vastly underestimate the value of 15 innings.
Its notable that fwar has them almost tied - Skenes 6.1, Sanchez 6.0.
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u/Graveyard_Operator83 Sep 24 '25
If these awards were chosen based on merit/ statistics alone, there would be some surprising winners.Ā
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u/Mjr334 Sep 24 '25
I love Sanchez but I still think Skenes wins. This isn't a Burnes over Wheeler situation where I feel like Wheels got robbed, Skenes is very deserving
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u/BoomBoomSpaceRocket Sep 24 '25
I won't pretend to know all that goes into WAR and why Skenes is lower (probably the majority is the 15 inning gap, which is going to shrink tonight). But it's Skenes by a decisive margin. Sanchez is having a season that could win the CY some years. Skenes is having one that wins it most years. If teams were reversed we'd be laughing at anyone who says Skenes isn't the leader.
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u/VinDucks Sep 24 '25
I wonder what Sanchez ERA would be if you discount bullpen allowing inherited runners to score after he goes 7 innings
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u/No-Frosting-5347 Sep 24 '25
Sanchez really could have used that extra win from last nights game, 3-0 lead going into the 8th. š Bullpen had us fooled for a couple weeks. Back to the BS
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u/Krysdavar Mike Schmidt Sep 24 '25
I can't imagine what that guy in Pittsburgh is going through with having to be on such a shitty team. Their ownership doesn't even try to win, and instead constantly trades away players so they can pocket the "revenue sharing" from all the other teams.
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u/PointNo6736 Sep 24 '25
Skenes arguably deserves the Cy Young more even though Sanchez is really good
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Sep 24 '25
It's a shame that David Robertson has cost him two wins in a row. That would possibly inch things tighter.
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u/KingdokRgnrk Sep 24 '25
These metrics are useless. Sanchez is miles ahead in Sex Appeal Above Replacement, and that's the only stat that matters.
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u/morrimike Sep 24 '25
What is WAR capturing if it values the guy with the higher ERA, fewer strikeouts and more walks?
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u/DaFiff Sep 24 '25
If you're dating/married some hot broad influencers/actresses, you win awards. Lots of examples of it from recent sports awards.
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u/PhillyFrenchFrey Sep 24 '25
Skenes should 100% win the Cy Young, if it wasnāt for him though, I think it would absolutely go to Sanchez.
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u/EmuProfessional3107 Sep 24 '25
If Skenes played on the Phillies heād probably have a 15-5 recordā¦ dudes elite
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u/avrumski Sep 24 '25
The only argument for Sanchez is the 15 extra innings pitched. Thatās basically 2 good games worth of pitching in the same number of starts. If you can show that Sanchez was taking the ball in late inning, multiple-run lead situations, maybe giving up a run but sparing bullpen arms and keeping problems like Romano et al. off the mound then maybe heās the more valuable pitcher. Especially if Skenes didnāt. Sanchez did eat up plenty of late game innings but I just donāt know. Love Sanchy regardless, if this isnāt his year, maybe next year will be.
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u/larryseltzer Jim Eisenreich Sep 25 '25
Not sure how readable this is. And I don't know what FB/GB numbers are "better"
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u/LeonardFord40 Sep 25 '25
I honestly don't understand why anyone thinks Sanchez, as awesome as he's been, has any case to win over Skenes. Skenes is having maybe the best start to a pitching career ever. He has better numbers and only 10ish less innings. Sanchez was awesome this year, Skenes was better
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u/brwebster614 Sep 25 '25
Skenes wins. He was going to win no matter what so long as his era was reasonable this year. Sanchez will be runner up. Wins mean nothing to the voters.
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u/Bill-dgaf420 Sep 25 '25
Agreed! Granted Skenes gets zero run support. Sanchez has been phenomenal throughout the season. Letās get it!
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u/Nave686 JT Realmuto Sep 25 '25
Getting 10 wins as a pitcher on that pirates team gets you the cy young by itself.
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u/oldie_but_goodie69 Sep 26 '25
Voters don't look at won-loss record because it's too dependent on the team you play for. ERA plus is the most neutral way to rank pitchers and Skenes is better.
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u/LakeMcKesson Chase Chase Utley Sep 24 '25
meaningful games played should 100% be taken into account for voters
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u/FredDurstDestroyer Bryce Harper Sep 24 '25
No it shouldnāt. Itās not Skenesā fault that the pirates are inept. Itās an individual performance award.
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u/LakeMcKesson Chase Chase Utley Sep 24 '25
High-pressure, meaningful outings should be taken into account but I do see your point. Its not like Skenes is choosing to play meaningless ball
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u/Traditional_Tap_3356 Sep 24 '25
I take the middle ground. If Sanchez is dealing in some high pressure outings that should be counted but I'm not going to knock Skenes for getting drafted by a crap organization.
Sanchez is amazing, in this case amazing means the 2nd best pitcher in the NL this year and the best starter in the NL for the playoffs.
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u/brwebster614 Sep 25 '25
I think it should be looked at but you canāt hold it against Skenes that the pirates are a shit org. Itās not Skenes fault. One of those things that helps but doesnāt hurt imo.
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u/Olympian83 Sep 24 '25
If Skenes takes an L tonight from a hungry Reds team, are they going to give the CY Young to a pitcher with a losing record? Iām 90% that Skenes gets it right now. With a loss tonight itāll be a coin toss.
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u/d-weezy2284 Sep 24 '25
The voters are human, so it'll be narrative over numbers.
Tie goes to Skenes.
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u/ghoulbabes1 Sep 24 '25
So last night on the radio rain delay they mentioned Chris had left 5 games in line for the win and the bullpen could not maintain the lead (including last night).
Wins are still an influential stat whether we agree or not to that, but if he was 18-5 I wonder how much that would influence the voting.
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u/rhiannon1001 Sep 24 '25
I wondered what his number of wins would be without bullpen blowing things, so thanks for sharing this tidbit!
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u/JWTowsonU Sep 24 '25
MLB is trying to make Skenes into a superstar. Thatās never going to happen playing for Pittsburgh without All-Star games and Cy Youngs.
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u/nash4prez Sep 25 '25
āTrying to make skenes a superstarā
Heās doing that through his play, just look at his stats. Heās easily a top 2 pitcher in baseball and heās 23 years old. Kick rocks.
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Sep 25 '25
[deleted]
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u/nash4prez Sep 25 '25
He literally had a baseball card sell $1.1 million dollars. How can you have a card sell for 7 figures and not be a superstar?
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u/shibshobshoob Garrett Stubbs Sep 24 '25
Iām not saying that meaningful games played should have an impact on voting. But it does make you wonder how Skenes might fare with a team that is a legitimate contender. Will he be the same level of elite when the pressure is on?
As it stands now his whole career is basically stat padding in garbage time - there are no real stakes. Not saying he wonāt rise to the occasion, but it is something to ponder.
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u/balemeout Sep 24 '25
Wish the team had given him more of a chance to exert a bigger innings lead on skenes. He had several games where he was rolling and got pulled without huge pitch counts
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u/AllEliteSchmuck Season Ticket Holder Sep 24 '25
The writers decided Skenes was winning the Cy in March
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u/Sir_Jerkums Sep 24 '25
Being on a winner has to mean more!! Skenes pitches nothing games and Sanchez has real games that heās has to pitch well. No question he should win it but the media wants skenes. Itās a shame the media is the ones voting on this because they donāt have any integrity left
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u/lkash_ Sep 24 '25
The biggest takeaway from this picture is how crazy it is still that sanchez didnt get an all star spot