The Iran war has pushed fuel prices to record highs, and the head of America’s second-largest oil company says the world has run out of easy ways to absorb the shock.

“Those are all buffers in the system that have bought us time, but they’ve been drained,” Chevron CEO Mike Wirth told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe on Oct. 7. “And so we’re at much lower levels of inventory right now, and it makes the system more vulnerable to disruption.”

Wirth said the world entered 2026 well supplied. “We came into this year with high inventories,” he said, pointing to commercial stocks held by companies and strategic reserves held by governments worldwide. Since the war began in late February, those cushions have been steadily depleted: Companies have drawn down commercial inventories, governments have released emergency stocks, and sanctioned barrels have been allowed to reach buyers.

Nowhere is the squeeze sharper than diesel, the fuel that moves trucks, trains, and farm equipment. The U.S. average hit a record $6.53 a gallon on Sept. 22, according to AAA data cited by CBS News, up from about $3.76 before the U.S. and Israel launched the war in late February. In California, the statewide average has topped $8 a gallon.

Don’t expect that to change quickly. In its October Oil Market Report, released Wednesday, the International Energy Agency said the diesel market will stay tight well into 2027 and hinges on a recovery of fuel supply from the Middle East. 

Read more [paywall removed for Redditors]: https://fortune.com/2026/10/15/chevron-ceo-mike-wirth-oil-buffers-drained-diesel-prices-iran-war/?utm_source=reddit/

Bloomberg AI:

• The IEA’s October Oil Market Report says global diesel/gasoil markets will stay uncomfortably tight well through 2027.

Inventories are not expected to be replenished beyond normal seasonal changes before the second half of 2027, even with a recovery in refinery runs. Europe, as a major importing region, is exposed to delayed refills of their SPRs.

• The International Energy Agency said member countries agreed to complete the release of 100 million barrels of oil still outstanding from an intervention in March.

• The countries will accelerate the distribution of the remaining volumes, including the release of 20 million barrels of diesel "as soon as possible".

• Member nations stated their willingness to take further actions to address challenges in global energy markets".

• Counter-seasonal stock draws ahead of winter demand and autumn refinery maintenance leave little cushion (IEA).

• The White House is displeased with Europe’s current release levels, stating they need to double or triple the pledged target output.

• Europe is especially exposed as the world’s structural diesel importer; imports are down sharply, commercial stocks historically low, the risk of renewed price spikes from Middle East engagement will impact shipping costs (IEA / Kpler).

• Europe Stock releases are finite and temporary; they do not restore lost Middle East/Russian refining capacity or end the conflict (IEA analysis).

• Fragile European Oil Reserve recovery: the renewed attacks on Russian infrastructure and Middle East tankers are quickly reversing any crude flow gains (IEA).

• Commercial stocks (especially in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub) have been historic record lows. Emergency stocks barley meet EU minimum cover rules (roughly 90 days of net imports or 61 days of consumption), and are being drawn down quickly despite demand destruction. The IEA has warned that delivered diesel prices in Europe could rise again in the coming weeks, even after the remaining oil target release.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-15/iea-agrees-to-release-of-outstanding-100-million-barrels-of-oil

They're not even trying to pretend anymore.

Trump posted on Truth Social that “massive oil, gas, and mineral exploration is getting ready to begin in our new and beautiful Greenland,” adding that experts claim the amount of easily available oil is far greater than almost any land on Earth and that its strategic value is second to none. 

• Greenland’s permanent secretary / deputy mining minister Jørgen Hammeken-Holm told CNN the opposite: U.S. companies have some activities underway, but “we are very far away from ‘massive’ exploration.” Smaller efforts “could take years to become operational” because of Arctic terrain, ice cover (roughly 80% of the island), limited infrastructure, and high costs. 

• The September 2026 U.S.-Denmark-Greenland agreement is primarily a defense pact amending the 1951 treaty. It allows expansion of Pituffik Space Base, two additional defense areas (Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig), broader U.S. access, and restrictions on non-NATO/non-EU sensitive investments. It acknowledges existing “minerals cooperation” and economic development talks but grants no new U.S. ownership, control over resources, automatic mining rights, or drilling authorizations. The text reaffirms Danish sovereignty and Greenlandic self-determination. 

• Trump has described the same agreement as giving the United States “permanent control over security, and all other needs” in Greenland and has referred to the island as “our” Greenland. Those characterizations go beyond the published text, which does not transfer territory or resource rights. 

• Greenland halted new oil and gas exploration licenses in 2021 on environmental and climate grounds. A limited number of older licenses (including ones tied to Greenland Energy / White Flame in the Jameson Land area) remain, but authorities have repeatedly said drilling approvals are not imminent. Environmental baseline work continues, and officials have indicated exploratory drilling is more realistically a 2027 or later prospect, with contractual deadlines previously extended toward the end of 2028. No commercial production is underway or scheduled for the near term. 

• Rare-earth projects such as Tanbreez (Critical Metals) have received mining- and closure-plan approvals valid through 2050 and target first ore in late 2028 or early 2029, with concentrates possibly following in 2029. These remain early-stage: further operating permits, financial security, construction, and infrastructure are still required, and the project has no declared mineral reserves. Sarfartoq and other prospects are at comparable or earlier stages. Greenland has no current commercial rare-earth mining. 

• Even under optimistic company timelines, meaningful volumes from Greenland would not reach markets for several years. China continues to dominate rare-earth refining (roughly 75–90% depending on the stage), and any future Greenland output would be incremental and subject to the same Arctic logistics, permitting, and processing constraints that have limited development for decades. The recent security deal does not change those physical and regulatory timelines or create a near-term supply response capable of lowering prices.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/greenland-denies-trump-claims-u-135935697.html

https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/14/politics/trump-greenland-oil-gas-minerals-intl-hnk

As I’ve reported, prices for oil delivery have skyrocketed. Last week, a VLCC (aka a “supertanker” in non-shipper parlance) was chartered from the U.S. Gulf Coast to China for $76 million. Another very large crude carrier went for $77 million from the U.S. to South Korea. That’s 10 times more than the price of the same trip less than one year ago.

Assuming these ships hold about 2 million barrels of oil, that charter price means each barrel on the ship costs about $38 over the price of the oil itself.

PPI year over year: 6.3% (expectation 5.5%)

PPI m/m: 1.3% (expectation 0.6%)

Core PPI m/m: 0.7% (expectation 0.3%)

Core PPI year over year: 5.0% (expectation 4.4%)

Retail sales: 0.8% (expectation 0.3%)

Diesel is eating your paycheck. A single fill-up just hit $947. Washington's fix? Easing sanctions on Russian diesel. Twelve senators, including six Republicans, call that a gift to Putin. Meanwhile, Iran is attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil just hit $106 a barrel. The public record shows we still don't know how much relief Americans will actually get. Read the full paper trail: https://eve70.substack.com/p/andy-harris-the-idiot-who-tried-to?r=rpmdh&utm_medium=ios

#Eugene #EugeneOregon #Oregon #DieselPrices #Putin #Trump #Accountability #FollowThePaperTrail

What are your thoughts on today’s oil price? Drop your opinions, predictions, charts, memes , low and high effort post, your AI slop or even analysis below. Keep it civil and on-topic! This post is renewed daily.

Unless there is some compelling reason, other posts in the sub about oil prices will be removed. In a futile effort to improve the quality.

(Current WTI/Brent price can be checked on any major site.)