r/history • • 1d ago

Will mystery of Amelia Earhart’s fate be solved at the bottom of a lagoon?

https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/amelia-earhart-new-search-plane-south-pacific-island-ps9vjnq93?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Reddit&utm_content=branded
390 Upvotes

178 comments sorted by

710

u/AerikTitlesTitles 1d ago

FFS, Nikumaroro again? This was investigated years ago.

We know what happened to Earhart and Noonan: they failed to reach Howland Island, ran out of fuel, ditched in the open ocean, and perished.

It's not a mystery, people just can't accept it.

233

u/drivelhead 1d ago

I saw a documentary about this where they firmly established that she's in the delta quadrant.

50

u/JimiSlew3 1d ago

The Historical Documents

7

u/Paavo_Nurmi 7h ago

by Grabthar's hammer

4

u/A_Broken_Zebra 6h ago

...........what a savings. -_-

•

u/6d_9 1h ago

The Historical Documents

...those poor people!

41

u/The_Dicaprio 1d ago

I understood this, Voy for life! 

212

u/Leprecon 1d ago edited 1d ago

Tighar again? Tighar is this weird fake organisation that only exists to constantly re-announce that they definitely found amelia earhart again and again, even though they haven’t.

All they do is psuedoscience and of course you can buy the book of this old crank who runs the organisation and buy t-shirts as well.

And for some reason every time this guy re-announces that he definitely found Amelia Earharts plane for realsies this time, the media laps it up.

87

u/Herkfixer 1d ago

Same as the Noah's ark crowd. Every decade or so some group has paredolia while hiking and See's a wooden boat where there isn't one.

30

u/Durendal_1707 1d ago

same as DB Cooper too, people just love conspiracies

28

u/ThatOneComrade 1d ago

Yea I'll never get why people think he survived, he jumped over Mountains in November during a storm while only wearing a suit, even assuming he didn't get stuck in a tree while landing he was likely dead within a few hours.

21

u/Durendal_1707 1d ago

oh yeah, he 100% probably succumbed to the elements and was subsequently eaten by scavengers, assuming he even survived landing in the storm

he wouldn’t even have known where he was, and the only clues we have suggest he was way too far from anything to live through it

15

u/VegemiteMate 1d ago

Wasn't he rescued by the BiFrost?

2

u/Paavo_Nurmi 7h ago

They did find some of the money.

2

u/Durendal_1707 5h ago

those were… the clues we found

but yes, we did

-2

u/panopticon31 18h ago

Also why the fuck would (or how the fuck) animals get to the middle east from Australia or South America to get on the boat.

3

u/MandolinMagi 18h ago

Weren't all the continents one at some point? Pangea or whatever?

1

u/panopticon31 17h ago

Hundreds of millions of years ago......not 3-5000 years ago. Or whenever Noah supposedly lived.

4

u/MandolinMagi 16h ago

Noah being ~6000 years ago is based off some dude's counting generations between Adam and Jesus, and assuming each generation has a consistent amount of time between them and nobody accidentally dropped or added anything over the years.

It's pretty terrible research and doesn't work with basic actual history.

1

u/dareftw 6h ago

Especially because biblically speaking Adam and methuselah and the rest of the off spring until Moses down the line all supposedly lived 500 or so years.

18

u/Scarlett_Billows 22h ago

At least Amelia and DB are real cases with real people

12

u/TheWatersOfMars 1d ago

It isn't TIGHAR this time. The guy you're talking about, Ric Gillespie, thinks the Taraia object is a tree.

The guy who's actually leading the expedition and convinced Purdue to fund it does explicitly draw on a lot of TIGHAR's theories, but he's not a member of it.

4

u/Independent-Ad-2108 23h ago edited 21h ago

Completely unrelated to TIGHAR. This is based on a satellite image from 2020. It could be the plane or a tree. We'll find out shortly.

2

u/UnicornAgentU7 20h ago

This has nothing to do with TIGHAR.

42

u/TheWatersOfMars 1d ago

Tbf, the guy who normally promotes the Nikumaroro theory thinks the Taraia object is a tree.

It's probably not the Electra, no, but it's much more of a smoking gun than anything else that's brought people to the island before. And it's sufficient enough to convince Purdue to fund it, on the off chance that they find it and get to bring it back for display on their campus.

49

u/Fickle-Lunch6377 1d ago

Didn’t they basically find tons of stuff there from a 1930s woman’s compact to a 1930s woman’s shoe and a woman’s skull? I mean I’d say that warrants something

45

u/thenerfviking 1d ago

None of that is confirmed because very few of those objects still exist. They found a number of objects (a boot heel, a compact, a skeleton, etc) but the problem with that is that that island has been used as a stop over for fishermen for decades and without any testing you can’t know where/when any of those things are from.

5

u/TheWatersOfMars 1d ago

And there are plausible explanations for everything they've found. For instance, there's a jar that might be freckle cream, and that would point to Earhart. On the other hand, the jar is too opaque (if I recall correctly) to be an exact match, so it might just be a similar jar, or it might be that the cream was sometimes sold in morr opaque jars.

Taken altogether, the circumstantial evidence feels very convincing, and I hope the Nikumaroro theory is true. But that's the problem with circumstantial evidence.

1

u/AversaS 17h ago

I can't imagine that, after nearly 100 years in salt water, there would be anything left of that plane that would resemble what it once was.

As for the items they found on the island, they could have washed up in a storm from anywhere, orrr it could be that's where they landed. And they did find (and lose) human remains that matched her size, which is interesting.

Either way, it's not my money being used for the expedition, BUT it's fun to watch.

2

u/TheWatersOfMars 16h ago

Not necessarily. I'm not an expert, just someone who's asked the same questions. But I think aircraft aluminium is pretty corrosion-resistant. There's plenty of downed WWII planes still on the sea floor. And if the Electra really has been sitting under sediment in the lagoon since the 30s, then maybe it's surprisingly intact, despite sedimentary abrasion. Setting aside whether this really is the plane or not, Purdue obviously wouldn't have set aside the enormous sums of cash to retrieve the wreckage for public display if it's impossible for there to be anything left.

But yeah, there are good counterpoints for all the items found thus far. For instance, the jar they found is nearly identical to 1930s freckle cream, but not quite the right colour and opacity. And the human remains might be hers, or maybe they really were from some random guy (there had been other visitors in the past) like the original pathologist suggested in the 40s.

1

u/AversaS 15h ago

The sea floor, maybe, where it’s deep and cold. But in shallow, warm waters being battered by storms for nearly a century? I can’t imagine there’d be much left outside of maybe some of the engine core.

2

u/TheWatersOfMars 15h ago edited 15h ago

If the Taraia object is the Electra, though, then it's been buried in sediment and only exposed by a massive storm 10 years ago. Lagoons have extremely thick sediment, and that creates a fairly anaerobic environment. So on balance, it could be surprisingly well-preserved.

Point of comparison, there's the Maid of Harlech in Wales. A WWII fighter plane half-buried in the sand and only visible some of the time. Still very much intact. Much less warm and stormy water, sure, but still.

And obviously we have an immediate point of comparison with the wreck of the SS Norwich City on the very same island, though it's a different sort of metal. You can see photos of it over the decades, and it's obviously degraded heavily, but still pretty intact despite sitting exposed to the open air, warm water, and tropical storms for over a century.

2

u/AversaS 15h ago

The waters are much colder in Wales than in the South Pacific. It’s definitely interesting. Look, I’m fascinated just to see what’s on an uninhibited island, so that along is cool to me. I’m just very doubtful on what they’re going to find.

2

u/TheWatersOfMars 14h ago

I'm hopeful. Maybe irrationally. But also very aware that it's probably a tree.

23

u/Dortmunder5748 1d ago

Absolutely. If people would look at a globe, find the tiny dot that is Howland Island and then at the incredible expanse of nothing but ocean in all directions, simple logic dictates the fate of Earhart and Noonan. The slightest navigation error would have put them hundreds of miles from any potential salvation.

34

u/sageberrytree 1d ago

honestly, I think I’d rather believe that than that they lived for months and months on a deserted island with no hope for rescue.

33

u/_Schrodingers_Gat_ 1d ago

Those crabs haunt my dreams mate.

5

u/shortarmed 20h ago

Those crabs are not what people make them out to be. You can walk away from them very casually. They don't chase people.

8

u/wkearney99 20h ago

can't sleep... the crabs keep coming...

5

u/Ironredhornet 7h ago

Yeah if they were eaten they would have already been dead in the first place.

3

u/DonnieMoistX 4h ago

I’m pretty sure the idea isn’t that the crabs hunted them down and killed them. The idea is that the bodies weren’t found after they died because the crabs scavenged and consumed them

2

u/stierney49 13h ago

I figure after awhile, they’d have begun to succumb to disease or exposure and wouldn’t be running or walking away.

3

u/howdudo 1d ago

The crabs make so much sense

19

u/BarbequedYeti 1d ago

I dont know. I have a seen enough movies to know its a 50/50 split. Paradise till the end of days or the worst horror you can imagine.  There is no in between. 

14

u/Gimpalong 1d ago

Literally the only reason they continue to go to that island is because it's the only viable land to stand on. The open ocean isn't a super exciting place to go.

7

u/CaptainA1917 1d ago

More to the point, there’s money to be made by grifters either off the “search” or off the story.

17

u/dburr10085 1d ago

They keep getting money to do “research”.

37

u/Hopefulkitty 1d ago

I wonder what else they are actually researching. Loch Ness is one of the most well researched bodies of water, because scientists can get funding from some rich guy to "totally find Nessie" and then they study all the other cool shit in that lake.

3

u/Alexis_J_M 1d ago

At one point the best way to get funding for biological science was, allegedly, to claim you were trying to debunk Creationist claims.

7

u/WolfDoc 1d ago

Who tf alleges that?? I am a biologist in my fifties and that sounds pure made up nonsense.

2

u/sybrwookie 1d ago

Or they spend a tiny fraction of what they were given on research and pay themselves handsomely with the rest.

6

u/skoomski 1d ago

It was a massive oversight for them to not fully understand the radio equipment and limitations considering it was their only navigational lifeline

18

u/Different-Sympathy-4 1d ago

Read this today with a decent explanation for why they think it's the right place https://www.archaeologychannel.org/taraia/

16

u/wolflordval 1d ago

From the image alone you can clearly see it's a tree, it's far too thin and small to be an aircraft, and it doesn't look anything like an Electra, even as wreckage.

2

u/Signiference 1d ago

Yeah that orange image looked like a plane but this satellite image is very clearly a tree

2

u/iwouldhugwonderwoman 1d ago

It would be nice if you were wrong but it’s 99.99% likely you aren’t.

3

u/murdochxx 1d ago

What you purport to be established fact, is not; that she ditched in the open ocean has not been established; there are good reasons to keep an open mind about this research effort—are you prepared to change your statement if they find her Electra on Nikumaroro?

-1

u/IAmRules 1d ago

They didn’t ditch in the open ocean. Their radio signals were picked up for hours after they landed. They likely did die on that island.

4

u/UnicornAgentU7 20h ago

Or another island. Nikumaroro isn't the only possibility. I definitely don't believe they crashed and sank in the ocean.

10

u/tylertrey 1d ago

Source?

1

u/compellor 1d ago

3

u/tylertrey 16h ago

Thanks.

2

u/Peregrine79 19h ago

TIGHAR is not an especially reliable source. They’re prone to, at best, putting the best possible interpretation on evidence. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TIGHAR

There’s no definitive record of transmissions from Earhart by anyone except the Itasca, and those were all while the plane was still in the air.

-2

u/AnneHizer 17h ago

The freckle cream is a smoking gun IMO. They crashed on the reef, plane was swept out and we’ll probably never find it, but they physically were on that island AFAIC

77

u/Rus_s13 1d ago edited 1d ago

They got there yesterday, and are being hampered by crabs apparently.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c6pvgryp8yv0o

41

u/Sub-Mongoloid 1d ago

That seems like a private matter which should be discussed with their romantic partners.

18

u/twentycanoes 1d ago

The crabs don't attack people. Despite having strong claws, they are primarily scavengers.

16

u/UnicornAgentU7 20h ago

These aren't large versions of hermit crabs. Coconut crabs are considered omnivorous scavengers. Among other things, they're known to capture and eat birds, rats, and other small animals.

http://www.nhm.ac.uk/discover/coconut-crabs-bird-eating-giants-on-tropical-islands.html

11

u/Rus_s13 1d ago

If I didn’t end up finding Amelia’s plane I’d be inclined to disagree

1

u/seaworthy-sieve 20h ago

Really? What if you're sleeping on the ground out in the open?

3

u/TiltDogg 12h ago

They are incredibly slow and docile. You could literally just walk away from one.

As for sleeping, they return to the ship every night to sleep... mostly because of the crabs.

2

u/know_nothing_novice 14h ago

At least four coconut crabs were encountered along the way, but they posed no threat to the operation.

https://www.purdue.edu/newsroom/2026/Q4/earhart-expedition-update-crew-arrives-onshore-sets-up-operations-on-nikumaroro/

1

u/Dramatic_Agency_8721 20h ago

If they arrived yesterday shouldn't they have a good idea already? Isn't it a small atoll?

41

u/semigator 1d ago

Did they discover the fallen tree trunk yet?

14

u/zigthis 1d ago

This is the answer. There is a preponderance of evidence for the Gardner Island theory, but this Taraia Object is a red herring.

8

u/zanhecht 19h ago

For some reason, actually going to look for the object is their last step, after establishing a base camp, clearing vegetation, and searching the land with metal detectors. It's almost like they want to draw this thing out as long as possible instead of just taking a small boat over to the object in 5 feet of water.

5

u/TiltDogg 12h ago

It is approximately 10 feet off shore in approximately 5 feet of water. You could walk out during low tide in a pair of shoes carrying a shovel to dig it up. They could have figured out if that thing was a plane within the hour they got there without ever putting down their drinks.

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u/[deleted] 1d ago

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u/[deleted] 1d ago

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1

u/copper_jacket_off 1d ago

White-collar WASPs calling their travel agents for eastern shore dibs

40

u/kareljack 1d ago

No. It will be solved when the Federation starship 'Voyager' enters the Delta quadrant.

4

u/Prashank_25 1d ago

Where is Khan. It's getting late.

1

u/InchHigh-PrivateEye 6h ago

One of my fave episodes

49

u/FoodLionMVP 1d ago

I know that it’s most likely they were lost to the ocean, but the radio evidence is pretty compelling. It’s understandable that people keep trying to find them.

8

u/MyChickenSucks 16h ago

It’s compelling enough they’ve thrown some serious money at it. Ballard isn’t a hack.

1

u/Zestyclose-Law-4902 9h ago

robert ballard is cool

9

u/karmafrog1 23h ago

I agree.  Everyone always jumping all over these guys basically hand waves the evidence they’ve presented without much engagement.

I mean, yeah, a lot of it is pretty weak and easily explained in other ways but as for the radio stuff, the dismissals by critics haven’t been very convincing.  

13

u/loganmyles 1d ago

Let’s not forget about Fred Noonan who also died in that crash

24

u/TheWatersOfMars 1d ago

Having spent the past week doing a serious deep-dive into this: probably not, but it's not impossible, so it's absolutely worth checking out. Very excited to hear what the object is in a few days.

-51

u/Lain_Staley 1d ago

The 'purpose' of Amelia crashing was an excuse to get US WARSHIPS in the Pacific to monitor Japan pre-WWII. Would be glad to post more on this topic. 

32

u/Beeninya 1d ago

Please don’t post more on your ‘topic’.

This is a history sub, not a conspiracy sub.

-19

u/Lain_Staley 1d ago edited 1d ago

I am genuinely surprised that this theory (that the US Military concocted a lie) of all theories, violates the Overton window. I implore the reader to be more cynical.    


"Earhart famously vanished during her attempt to be the first woman to circumnavigate the world.   

She vanished July 2, 1937 and you may notice that's just 5 days before the first half of WW2 began as Japan invaded China and that's important for what's really going on here.    

The 1st Google result clarifies WW2 Began "not in Poland or Pearl Harbor but outside of Beijing"   


...The quick answer to why can be understood by considering geography, timing, and search logistics.

There is a reason most articles about Earhart focus on the search, it's not just a logical topic, but it's at the core of intent. Notice any relevant countries in the map?


  • 07/02/1937 Earhart Vanishes - Most Famous Search For Plane In History Begins   
  • 07/07/1937 Search Area Extends to New Area for Amelia Amelia Earhart, Costs $250,000 Each Day     
  • 07/07/1937 World War II Begins As Japan and China Clash Outside of Beijing   

This "search" was an excuse to fund as many U.S. airplanes in the air as possible with an excuse to fly towards Japan & China for WWII.

07/04/1937 Navy's Ace Plane Carrier to Join Search for Amelia Earhart 

Hence why the search rapidly expanded until the war started!"

3

u/UnicornAgentU7 19h ago

You started off by claiming that nefarious government forces somehow orchestrated her crash to serve their ulterior motives. That's crazy talk, not worthy of a response.

Here, however, you're claiming something more reasonable. No, nobody orchestrated her crash. End of story on that. However, it is possible that somewhere along the way, since the opportunity presented itself, that the search took on a dual role.

The problem is, you're conflating two entirely different things: a search that took on a secondary purpose, along with something far more nefarious and conspiratorial, i.e., the orchestrated crash of her plane.

-4

u/Lain_Staley 18h ago

'Orchestrated her crash'?

That's ridiculous. I'm implying that the US Military fabricated her crash. More bluntly: they faked her death.    

You really don't think, especially back in 1937, that such a thing couldn't be done?    

11

u/MandolinMagi 1d ago

What exactly was stopping the US sending ships to the Pacific to monitor Japan before she flew?

Also, her flight only gives you an excuse for a week.

-14

u/Lain_Staley 1d ago

Often times militaries use the excuse of 'performing an exercise' while actually performing missions. Makes sense as an excuse, right? Optics.    

What excuse could the US Navy have thousands of miles in the Pacific? At such an opportune time? 'Amelia' delivered it. 

8

u/MandolinMagi 1d ago

The Navy didn't need an excuse, and at most you get a cruiser in the area for a week.

Much easier to have a ship based out of China poke around wherever you want it to.

1

u/othelloblack 6h ago

yeah we saw how that turned out

8

u/Akasazh 1d ago

Statistics are that it's very improbable

41

u/vito1221 1d ago

Her accomplishments cannot be questioned, but you would think she was the only pioneering female aviator.

I hope this is her plane and they find their remains so we don't have to see this pop up every year or two.

32

u/IAmATelekinetic 1d ago

I'm pretty sure her accomplishments can be questioned. She was a mediocre pilot, and most of her fame came from her husband's marketing push (he wanted to use her to get rich). There are much cooler female aviators from the same time period that just didn't have the media attention.

5

u/UnicornAgentU7 19h ago

Yeah, that's a bunch of bullshit. Along with other female aviators, she faced enormous hostility from the male pilots of her day, and Amelia received the brunt of it because she was the one getting the most amount of attention. They sought to discredit her every chance they got.

Oh, and she was already breaking records and making a name for herself before her husband ever came along.

17

u/vito1221 1d ago

I was trying to be a little 'softer' but yeah, I always believed much of it was hype.

She did set some legit records, but...

41

u/AppendixN 1d ago

And yet ironically, you didn't bother naming any of the others that you feel are more important to talk about.

85

u/vito1221 1d ago

You will see these and others if you do a Google search. And you can look up Earhart's accomplishments as well. Impressive, but she wasn't the only one.

Elinor Smith is probably the one who is most overshadowed. Youngest person to get a pilot's license. (16 years old in 1928). Considered by many to be the best female pilot in the US at the time.

Bessie Coleman was part black, part Native American known for her outstanding stunt flying.

Amy Johnson was the first woman to fly solo from London to Australia.

Ruth Nichols held world records for speed, altitude, and distance by a woman.

Louise Thaden won the Bendix Trophy in 1936.

Beryl Markham - first PERSON to fly solo from England to North America in 1936.

14

u/PacNWDad 1d ago

Also, Neta Snook, who came to our high school and spoke. Quite impressive.

4

u/TiltDogg 12h ago

All correct. But those people weren't lost during their incredibly commendable feats. People are driven to find answers when they have none. I think the radio transmissions fuel the fire by absolutely providing credible evidence that they were alive on the ground, not lost at sea. If they were alive on the ground, human nature wants to know where. If any of your aforementioned female pilots were lost under the same circumstances, we would definitely be having the same conversations about them.

4

u/reiflame 1d ago

Beryl Markham's book is fantastic.

1

u/Dr_HeywoodFloyd 1d ago

Don’t forget Pancho Barnes.

1

u/Hunter__1 1d ago

Jerrie Cobb and Wally Funk as well!

-39

u/AppendixN 1d ago

You're not going to mention Raymonde de Laroche, Bessie Raiche, Harriet Quimby, or Helen Richey? No Aida de Acosta, Princess Anne of Löwenstein-Wertheim-Freudenberg, Pancho Barnes, Jean Batten, Lilian Bland, Katherine Cheung, Tadashi Hyōdō, or Jerrie Mock?

Do you even care about pioneering women aviators?

You've just said that it's some kind of erasure to mention one pioneer without talking about the others, so be consistent, you didn't even acknowledge the first woman to ever get a pilot's license, or the first woman to fly solo around the world!

1

u/vortexmak 15h ago

It didn't work,  we all know what you're trying to do and failed

0

u/vito1221 13h ago

Your Google search went deep. I didn't feel like going that far. And don't lie...you had to look them up as well. I mentioned a sample.

My point isn't 'erasure' of others, it's more AE getting hyped up to mythical status when she wasn't all that.

4

u/AppendixN 12h ago

I literally just had to look at one Wikipedia page. And I already knew about a couple of them, but obviously not all.

It's just silly to get mad that people are talking about a woman aviator because you think everyone's being stupid for not talking about other ones, if you aren't even going to mention any in your complaint. By your own statement, you had to Google to find out who any of them were.

-11

u/Jairlyn 1d ago

Exactly. “Why aren’t other people talking about what I want them to be talking about!”

Ok what’s wrong with their keyboard they can’t be talking about it themselves.

•

u/mrkrabz1991 1h ago

The odds of them finding remains (even if this is the plane) is almost non-existent. This island has been heavily searched over the years with nothing compelling ever being found. The only reason they're going back is because a huge storm a decade ago dug up the beach and reveled this object, which has been seen a few times with satellites, so they want to go check it out.

7

u/Evening_Benefit_3902 23h ago

Nope she ran out fuel before that and ditch it. Nothing to find as there would be nothing left after 80 plus years it was a small plane.

6

u/jason2354 19h ago

There is probably plenty left. The question is if it’s buried under 30 feet of sand and sediment.

0

u/Evening_Benefit_3902 9h ago

The plane was aluminium its long gone the only thing that they could possiable find is the planes engines

6

u/Paranoma 8h ago

Lmao wtf are you talking about. Aluminum doesn’t dissolve in salt water. They just found a perfectly intact aircraft from the 1930’s in the Atlantic.

4

u/invalidmail2000 19h ago

Well if they crashed on a little reef / Island like what they are investigating there probably would still be some wreckage.

4

u/RedRedditor84 17h ago

I heard it was a Russian surface to air missile that did her in.

2

u/raiderrocker18 15h ago

Where did you hear that

2

u/Chrisaarajo 11h ago

It’s the obvious conclusion to make following their denials.

2

u/Hikinghawk 8h ago

I heard it was a joint Atlantean (Pacific Branch) and Japanese UFO project that misidentified her as a milkman.

2

u/litetravelr 18h ago

Hasnt that island been searched multiple times by now? That looks like a tree.

2

u/[deleted] 9h ago

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/zigaliciousone 16h ago

I thought they already kinda solved it and decided that at least one of them made it to shore badly injured and were likely killed and consumed by the coconut crabs?

1

u/Independent-Towel-47 11h ago

They ditched in the ocean and their remains are 3000 feet down covered in mud. There must be some mystery more worthy of funding

1

u/Icedog-26 10h ago

I wouldn’t hold my breath, but who knows? Let’s wait until they get to that specific location.

•

u/FreddyF2 2h ago

I think the bigger question is why could they not have flown a few drones over the area at a cost of 1/1000th of this expedition and furthered their theory first, instead of this expedition.

-10

u/jnighy 1d ago

Why did I think it was solved? Was I Mandela Effected?

15

u/TheRecognized 1d ago

As in having spotty memory about a headline you skimmed past years ago? Yes, probably.

1

u/BananaMartini 3h ago

I did too. It’s not just you. 

-1

u/ScoobiusMaximus 17h ago

We all know she actually hit Malaysia Airlines flight 370 when it hit a wormhole