r/georgism • u/DynamoDynamite • 3m ago
TSMC posted a record quarter the same week AI lenders started pricing their loans as distressed. That’s Ricardian rent at a chokepoint.
In mid-October, CoreWeave’s 2032 notes, issued in June at 9.6%, were trading near 75 cents on the dollar, around a 15% yield. Interest is eating close to a quarter of its revenue. Oracle fell 9% in a session, Nebius 20%, IREN 25% in two weeks.
Same week, TSMC reported a record $23.6B quarterly profit, up 69%, with its fabs full and a waiting list.
I read that through Ricardo’s best field. Every AI builder, whether hyperscaler, neocloud or startup, has to pass through TSMC’s leading-edge fabs, and none of them can route around it. Whatever happens to their business afterward, TSMC has already been paid. The borrowers hold the risk of chips that wear out in three to five years against bonds that run to 2032. The rent got collected on the way in, the same split a housing bust produces between the landowner who sold at the peak and the builder and bank left holding the loss.
I also included a local version from Thunder Bay, where I live. The city is down to one pulp mill and one sawmill, so anyone selling wood has one buyer for each and no one to play against them. Same chokepoint, facing the other way.
Question for this sub: George treated monopoly privileges as land-like. Does rent from a technological chokepoint like a leading-edge fab belong in the same category as location rent, or is it a different animal because it can be competed away? The same week, ASML and Tokyo Electron dropped 7% after China’s CXMT claimed 10% of global DRAM share, which suggests these chokepoints are less permanent than land.
Full piece: https://identitythreshold.substack.com/p/the-ai-buildout-toll-booth