for the first 3 episodes, (correct me if i’m wrong), Devin didn’t make a single true claim. every single thing he said was going to happen, did not happen. he’s been wrong every single time he’s opened his mouth

until this episode. he did his usual overconfident prediction, naming the chicken Jenna and brutally killing it with blood on his hands. thought this was a clear set up that Jenna must be safe - but she of course went home. he was finally right about something, and it was portrayed the same way all of his wrong comments were portrayed (overconfident)

at tribal, Jeff noted that this could be a turning point for the helicopter folks, and i think he was right. also last tribal, Devin said things would have to change for him if he’s on the wrong side of the votes again - and he was

NTOS shows Jelly wanting Devin out, but i think that’s taken out of context and she likely ultimately decides to continue with him

for the first time this season, i’m thinking Devin might actually go deep in this game

thoughts on Devin’s longevity and overall this theme of him being undermined by the edit then suddenly being strongly reinforced by the edit?

Hey everyone! I’ve been doing edgic for a few years, but this is my first time actually writing down my thoughts and posting them here (don’t ask why I’m starting at ep. 4. I don’t know either). English isn’t my first language (mine's a totally different one) and I kinda watch Survivor both for fun and to learn English, so please excuse any grammar mistakes.

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Tier 5: No Way (Too UTR/-ve)

16. Christian (UTR1)

Let's be real, "Purple Christian" has absolutely no chance in winning this game with this edit. Getting just 2 confessionals in four 90-minute episodes is insane. He could be male version of Genevieve or Yellow Sophie if he gets a huge episode next week or the week after, but you know, none of them won.

15. Kilby (CPM4)

His scene with Eric is cinematic. But in terms of the edit, he has been the OTT loud guy who's never right and has been a target for a while. I really don’t think the editors would give their winner this kind of negative edit. Plus, everyone else’s reactions make it pretty clear we’re not supposed to root for him (Sharonda’s expression this episode was iconic). So yeah, Kilby is not winning.

14. Mike (MORN3)

These two episodes have been a disaster for Mike. He went from getting a really good premiere to being constantly dunked by his tribe mates for being strategically and socially bad. Male winners also almost never get edits this tiny, so it seems like it's over for him.

13. Brady (MORN3)

He serves great TV, but he is just so intense. No matter during challenges or while questioning about last week's tribal council, he is always at a 10. I think he'll at least make mid-merge, but no winner has ever been this OTTM/OTTN heavy. If he is indeed our winner, the editors should've put way more focus on his "playing both sides" game or why he "generously" handed Maggie the advantage instead of all these OTT reactions.

12. Devin (OTTN3)

Genuine question: why is this mean so obsessed with voting out Jenna? Over 2/3 of his content has been about Jenna, but yet in this episode in which his target went home, the main focus was not on him. Instead, it's on everyone except him. Also, Jelly constantly questioning his actions and strategy plus that weird chicken scene make zero sense to be included in a winner's story.

Tier 4: Dark Horses (Growth Edit/Increased Visibility/Unexpected Winners?)

11. Alexis (MORN4)

She had a pretty bad episode this week. If she gets nothing great enough to save her in the next episode, she is toast. She became the target on New Savu and could easily go home next episode, so things aren't looking great for her chances.

10. Eric (CPM4)

Eric is giving a growth edit vibe this season, like Emily (S45), Andy (S47) etc. A horrendous premiere, the target in ep.2, to suddenly get Kilby as ally after swapping (plus the content becomes more positive leaning). Though there's still a possibility of him getting the biggest underdog winner story in history. It still probably means he makes it very far, even to the final tribal council, but just falls short of winning.

9. Thien An (MOR2)

Honestly, her last two episodes are kinda great, and she is clearly a strategic force. She gives classic female UTR winner energy (imagine that both winners of 41 and 51 are very under-edited women), but she still needs a huge breakout episode or some consistent content to really stay in contention. So let's see how it goes.

Tier 3: Flawed (Circumstantial?/0 Conf.)

8. Lewis (MOR2)

Quiet episode for Lewis, and as others mentioned, it might have been because of his illness. But here's the thing, Lewis got two huge episodes (one for exile journey and one for making the move) and two pretty quiet ones (even when he joined Toku). So all that good content may still be circumstantial. If he had another quiet/bad episode next week, he would be crossed out.

7. Carter (MOR2)

Quiet but steady for Carter. After these two episodes, his edit is looking much more promising. The only thing dragging him down is that 0 confessional episode. No winner has had one of those for a pretty long time (though wouldn't be surprised in the open era). I'll wait one or two more episodes to see if Carter can still win.

Tier 2: Possible (Female UTR Winners)

6. Linnea (UTR2)

I was honestly shocked when I decided to rank her at 6th. Based on the preview, she is someone who I expected to be a major character, but she's actually an under-radar player. The main reason she's here is that her edit has fewer flaws, she isn't shown much, but we get steady confessionals from her every episode. I expect her visibility to increase at the merge (if she makes it) and it wouldn't surprise me if she ultimately wins.

5. Maggie (UTR2)

Probably my only surprising pick. Maggie has the kind of edit her archetype normally wouldn't get, and it is suspiciously consistent. We know her job, a bit of her backstory, and her edit is mostly positive. Even when she has no role in the story, we still get confessionals from her. She's giving UTR winner edit except for two flaws, 1) Her premiere was not that great 2) She voted for Patt with zero explanation after stating she didn't want to. I think the key to her chances is whether she can get some long-term storyline in the next few episodes (Jenna leaving?/Alliance with Thien An?/That preview scene?). If she is does, she's a serious contender for me.

Tier 1: Major Contenders (Helicopter Alliance + Kristin)

4. Kristin (MORM3)

Realistically, I've considered moving her down a tier, but I'll wait one more week before actually doing it. Kristin got a lot of strategy content this episode, and not all of it is good. Her really strong episode 1 and decent episode 2 still keep her in the game, but another bad episode would be the final straw for her.

3. Ori (MOR3)

Ori has the least screen time among the helicopter alliance, but it's all good. From the motivational speech in episode 1 to his confessional about voting incorrectly, he always got what he needed edgic-wise. He is in a pretty good position and this week's vote was the best for him. If he can get a standout moment soon, he could even rise to the top of my rankings.

2. Jelly (CP5)

This is a great episode for Jelly. I was doubtful about her chances last week as she got nothing despite her ally going home. But then, her confessional at the start of the episode makes up for it and shows that the editors are most likely just shielding her. She got tons of strategic content and an evolving arc with Ori. And she was constantly dumping Devin, but since we are not meant to root for him, that probably means we're meant to root for her instead. If Sharonda does not exist, she would definitely be number 1 in this list.

1. Sharonda (MOR2)

My top pick far ahead and it's not even close. She got a really consistent edit with great insights, and the editors always make sure we know how she feels. She's shown to be strategically strong and absolutely safe in her tribe. My only doubt is that is it too perfect? She's getting an edit like Kim in S24, which is unique in 50 seasons. With the constant mention of one world twist this season (maybe just me overthinking), could that be a hint that Sharonda wins? No matter what, unless something tragic happens, she'll stay high for me for at least a while. If she's not our winner, she'll probably be the final boss the winner has to beat to take the title.

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Again, first time poster here, so if my writing is a mess, go easy on me and please let me know. Hope you enjoy my take and can't wait to see all your thoughts!

I want to believe

After three phenomenal episodes, it’s hard not to be disappointed to see Survivor go back to its ‘just alright’ era. I’ve seen a lot of negativity about the return of three tribes this episode, and I agree that the shuffle has taken a lot of the momentum of the season away and as usual screwed over a handful of players – but I also think that’s kind of the nature of tribe swaps. Of course, why they didn’t opt to swap into two different tribes is beyond me, and it didn’t help that the most boring tribe configuration with the least players also ended up going to tribal. The silver lining is that I think that both of the other two tribes would have a much more interesting vote than the one we saw tonight. I am praying the next challenge is purely physical and that Ori pulls the tribe through, as I’m rooting so hard for Alexis to escape her certain doom, and for another more entertaining episode to be on our screens.

We lose Jenna tonight, and I wasn’t at all surprised to see her go pre-merge here. Her premiere was her only good episode in my mind, and her UTR dip after this despite again getting one over on Devin, plus her being missing from all Previously On Survivors until this point made me pretty confident that she would be going out as a continuation of her premiere story.

I felt the episode validated a lot of my feelings on the more likely winner contenders, but there has been a decent amount of movement on the bottom half of my rankings.

So, without further ado, who are my Top Contenders? …

1. Sharonda. (-) Look, there’s two possibilities here. Either Sharonda is the winner, or Sharonda is the player we are meant to view as the one to beat. Her edit kind of reminds me of Savannah’s in terms of her visibility and that they are not afraid to show her having negative opinions of her fellow players. Her relationships with the Helicopter Alliance are established, and she has also been linked to Linnea, Alexis and Eric. She is in the centre of all the dynamics and has her fingers in a lot of pies and is being portrayed as such. I have two red flags for Sharonda, which may seem a lot, but most people have five or six at this point. Firstly, again, lack of personal content/personal scenes. Secondly, I don’t think any of her alliances beyond Ori and maybe Devin have been really fleshed out in terms of how people feel about her.
2. Jelly. (-) A pretty good episode for Jelly this week. She obviously, finally, got her way in a vote, but was also shown to be much more wary and flexible in the Jenna vs Alexis debate compared to Devin’s tunnel vision. I also think she had a strong post-tribal confessional talking about wishing she would have saved Patt. I think this is significant as it is a story thread that is only relevant to her. If getting revenge for Patt becomes a recurring motif then the strengths of Patt’s edit in terms of making her a likeable character can also kind of be attributed to Jelly. Considering how the game has gone so far for her, I’m leaning towards Jelly being our high visibility losing finalist (see Sophi Balerdi, Sam Phalen etc.) but its so early in the game that things could easily turn around for her post-merge.
3. Linnea. (-) Another pretty much solely narrational episode from Linnea, but yet again she escapes going to tribal. I’m kind of getting Kaoh Rong Michele vibes from her here, not as blatant in terms of being personal and talking about cheeseburgers, but in that we check in with her every episode and find out her feelings at any given point in the game. It feels like she’s important, but we don’t know why just yet. She could be a winner, a losing finalist, or maybe being set up for one of the season’s major moments.

Who else is a Contender? …

• Maggie. (-) I’m sorry. Again, I know this is high, but I just love her. The way she shut Brady down after tribal was probably not the best gameplay but absolutely hysterical. HOWEVER, I do have one major positive to highlight for Maggie here, and that is her subtitled confessional where she said she had been applying for twenty years and she wasn’t going to let a big dumb guy run her game. Maggie’s content has all been really solid in my opinion, just maybe a little quiet thus far. But a 2/2/2/2 confessional count isn’t too shabby a foundation for a post-merge rise to the top.
• Lewis. (+1) I thought Lewis’ episode was just ok this week, but his first three combined were a strong introduction, and it’s not every day that the editors allow a contestant to explain their lack of presence in an episode like they did with Lewis’ illness this week. Also, it feels like him having a target due to being ill might be a bit of forced adversity or misdirection to hide someone else being booted if they go to tribal next week.
• Ori. (+1) A pretty good episode for Ori that fleshed out his relationships with the helicopter alliance and had him stand his ground to keep Alexis in the game over Jenna. Now I’m thinking about it, it feels like Ori’s relationships with Devin and Jelly are fleshed out better than Sharonda’s are, so maybe I’m underestimating Ori a little, but I’ve still seen nothing in his edit that makes me think he’s a genuine strategic contender to win the game.
• Kristin. (-2) Kristin falls this week because I feel like her edit is kind of weird. She gets a lot of circumstantial content – negotiation/injury/injury/tribe swap, and they keep hammering home the fact that she’s a crisis consultant in a way that they rarely harp on about with other people’s professions. I think her nature survival content is all pretty good, and she gets a decent serving of positive SPV every now and again, but it all just feels a bit lacking and a bit off. Are they setting up Kristin to be thrown into a crisis that she can’t quite navigate?

Who is an Unlikely Contender? …

• Brady. (+3) I have no idea what they are doing with Brady’s edit, but I thought his opening confessionals were pretty good this week. However, he still has had a lot of negativity and they are still highlighting him shouting at people in challenges. He has clearly rubbed a lot of people the wrong way and I would struggle to see him winning a jury vote.
• Devin. (-) I feel like the show is constantly amplifying bad vibes from Devin. He says everything with a smile on his face and has a very positive attitude, but all his confessionals come off as so smarmy or cocky or just delusional. He has a strong confessional count and presence on the season so far and maybe he could turn things around in game, but I think the man who the edit is presenting to me is not very aware of the issues in his game to be able to fix them in the first place. This combined with his number one ally continuously giving him negative SPV leaves me feeling like a Devin win is technically possible but also really not going to happen.
• Carter. (-2) Carter drops more as a re-evaluation of his ranking last week than anything that happened this episode, but I will say that he showed clear red flags of tunnel vision throughout this episode when it came to his feelings about Kristin. I also thought the scene where he established an alliance with Thien An while good on paper came off as a bit awkward. Also, both of them have had a zero confessional episode. I like Carter, I think Carter can win, but I also think Carter needs a strategist in the driver’s seat to win over at the end on sheer likability alone.
• Eric (+3) Eric moving up is more of a result of other people moving down than it is anything positive for him. But I will say he is a consistent presence with some moments of complexity, and he has a few relationships outlined. However, his edit has been so negative, and I think this Kilby relationship will probably end up being his main story until it results in one or both of them going home. If he betrays Sharonda, his head’s on the chopping block, and if he sticks with her … well, she’ll cut him sooner or later … or maybe drag him to the end?
• Thien An (+1) I don’t know why I’ve moved Thien An up a tier and why I’m ignoring zero confessional episode counts here, but I guess it’s a newer new era and anything goes. I actually don’t feel like Thien An’s edit is that bad. Her premiere is about being underestimated, she later leads a vote against her tribe’s big dogs and ends up being a desirable ally come the swap. My concerns are that multiple people have highlighted wanting to target her, that her day one alliance was not highlighted until this episode, and a lot of her content is devoted to dunking on Mike. Now Katurah reached the finale on much less, but I think Thien An is a very unlikely winner with this start to a season. I’m not even sure she’ll come out on top over Mike.

Who is Borderline Eliminated? …

• Alexis. (-1) If she goes out next week it will suck because I think she has so much more to give (see wanting to take Jenna’s shoes as an insurance policy) but it will also make sense as to why they have given her a decent but not too special apology edit. If she survives next week I think we could see her become a big post-merge threat to be booted, but due to her lack of premiere introduction and lacklustre content since I think there’s like less than a 0.5% chance that Alexis wins the season based on the edit.
• Kilby. (+1) A solid episode for Kilby, but his entire edit up until this point has been dunking on him and showing him confidently state things that are completely incorrect. His war with Devin is also incredibly one sided. Last week all of Devin’s statements about Kilby were well evidenced with footage, while this week we just had to take Kilby’s word for things. I think he’s still at risk of being booted if that tribe go to tribal even though he’s made a little bit of progress.
• Mike. (-5) There’s trashing someone for bad gameplay, trashing someone for being mean, and then there’s trashing someone for being a little bit bland. Mike’s whole story is about being inauthentic in conversation and struggling to build allies outside of a failing alliance, and even if, like Thien An predicted, he can jump aboard an alliance and hold on for dear life, that’s not something likely to result in a win for him. Also I’m starting to think that these more negatively edited players – Mike, Kilby, Eric etc. are the most likely victims of a coin flip because they want us to think that the player was not going to win anyway. Mike as the least visible of the three doubly feels like the likely victim.

Who is Eliminated? …

• Cristian. (-) He got a visibility spike! It may have been only one confessional, but he was there. It doesn’t make sense for him to go home on this tribe where he has Sharonda and Linnea, so I think Cristian might actually be our Sophie Segretti this season. We’ll see you at the merge, my friend.

Damn, another huge edgic name gone. If Jenna had survived this episode she would have been in my top 3 😭 The weakest episode of the season for sure, but the cast and an interesting vote keep this season’s very likable and entertaining; let’s just not go back to three tribes on 52. The swap is always important and I hope that this episode finally gives us some consistently strong contenders.

🐋Top Contenders🐋

1. Sharonda.

Sharonda and her perfect ass edit. It’s becoming a little bit in your face already; Sharonda gives her thoughts on everything that you could possibly want someone to give their thoughts on during a swap episode. Thoughts on pre-swap tribe! New dynamics of swap tribe! Makes sure that a potential swing is on her side! All the good things for Sharonda; she’s never made to look bad, all of her thoughts are presented as based in reality and then we instantly see confirmation confirming what she’s said to be true.

These seemingly ‘good’ edits have been ending in pre-merge tragedy, but Sharonda feels distinctly above the rest in just how squeaky clean her edit has been. She’s an absolute number one for me just on the surface, and it’s too early on in the season to be really confident in any dark horses, so I think she’ll be at the top for a while. Personal content would be great, her personality comes through a lot in her confessionals and she has some great face reaction shots to Eric being cringe, but I’m scared she might start leaning gamebot.

1. Jelly.

Jelly finally clicked with me this episode! All season I’ve had Jelly at arm’s length, her edit was always objectively one of the best so she was never super low on any of my lists but the vibes were always off. Episode four wiped away all of that! I thought Jelly’s game focus, post-tribal and pre-tribal scramble was really strong and positioned her as a main character of everything that involved her. Post-tribal she gets personable content about her relationship with Patt and gets to mourn her ally; and good game talk with her idol now being a complete secret and a badass confessional leading into the intro about being ready to go off! Oh, I was cheering. Pre-tribal, Jelly is shown as the head of her alliance and the main person making decisions; it really feels like Ori and Devin take major backseats to Jelly. She’s portrayed as rational and smart, really weighing her options.

The helicopter alliance continues to be a major factor in the game, and Jelly and Sharonda are the main people benefiting from it. Along with a fun character moment with Devin and a huge fat crush on Ori, even her character content is great and has places to go. My main negative was that Jelly said a couple episodes ago that she would need to distance herself from Devin and his chaos, and she has only grown closer to him. With how big of a character Devin is, I do think she could turn on him in a single episode and go full Genevieve and Kishan on him; but being a causality of Devin’s chaos could be another option.

1. Lewis.

Great follow-up and continuation for Lewis this episode! I think the episode clearly shows that Lewis and Carter made the right move flipping on the core five of Yellow, but only Lewis gets to acknowledge that at the beginning of the episode. He’s kinda gone for the rest of the episode, but I felt like the show showing Lewis being sick explained why his episode was so quiet.
Lewis gets back to the bottom after the swap, but I actually ain’t mad at that… Lewis’ whole storyline this season has been about being on the outs and having to ingratiate himself into dynamics, and him getting to just redo his storyline isn’t optimal, but it’s definitely something.
With how wild and suddenly pretty cocky he’s been this season I think that the edit never paints Lewis as a villain and keeps him as a fun and rootable figure.

🐋Contenders🐋

1. Kristin

This agricultural legend.
Super circumstantial episode, but a great episode nonetheless. Portrayed as resilient and strong and intelligent. The plant stuff is a great through-line for Kristin, keeps her memorable and it’s a genuinely endearing character quirk. Her new position isn’t ever shown as overly negative and more as an opportunity. Carter doesn’t really believe that she wants to work with him, but that scene felt a bit weird, and every other interaction Kristin has had a positive tone to it. Great personal content about her job too!
I think this episode went more than out of its way to make Kristin look likable and strong in an underdog position, but also gave her room to build on relationships and ultimately be a swing vote, even with Carter icing her out a bit.

1. Ori.

Didn’t love this episode, but Ori is clearly important to the season. He’s really reading to me as losing finalist, because he’s never been as important as any of his allies; but with how these big edits are falling, Ori being close to Devin, Sharonda, and Jelly could lead to him inheriting their edits at some point; the helicopter alliance is Ori’s biggest strength. Really likable dude, but I need him to drive a vote and not just be someone his more important ally is keeping in consideration. He does get his way this episode though.

🐋Ones to Watch Tier🐋

1. Linnea.

This high by default.
Linnea’s edit is very middle of the road, but she’s gotten something every episode and has established relationships. Not a lot of content she can call her own, but if they want to have an UTR kind of winner this season, Linnea has all the makings to be that person. Really liked her confessional about loving her original tribe, and the fact that she got a confessional pre-swap. Really good sign.

1. Brady.

This episode proves that even when he isn’t important Brady will get content, and that that content can be good. This was a solid episode, great reaction to his blindside and the new tribe and pivot from his over-the-top strategy of the pre-swap game. He wasn’t an OTT character this episode, but just a solid Survivor player that recognizes he’s on the outs and needs to pivot. I kinda love his reoccurring character moments of yelling at people during immunity challenges. Loved this episode for Brady, and with how strong new Yellow is, if he never goes to tribal this episode becomes even better in hindsight; showing that he knew he needed to do the work, but never have to show the results of it.

1. Maggie.

Okay, Maggie with the post-tribal content! Like always, Maggie gets her little pockets of screentime and slips away. Reflecting on the vote is great for Maggie, making her important to the dynamic and important enough to the game to have follow-up! I have no idea where she’s going, and honestly, I don’t know if I have faith in her to win; but her edit is consistent, and that’s enough to be this high up.

🐋You’re In Danger Tier🐋

1. Devin.

Unlike Brady, I don’t think the edit will ever just let Devin breathe. He’s always over the top, doing too much, getting negative SPV every episode! And for an episode where his main one-sided rival goes home, Jelly is the main narrator. Devin is clearly this huge crazy character, but not a winner. The helicopter alliance is the only reason he’s not completely cut from contention.

1. Mike.

Damn. Even as a Mike truther, this episode blows. Real double whammy set of episodes, first he’s called boring and not able to make allies and then we see it in action; and as someone who likes Mike, damn is he not engaging when he speaks to people. All of Mike’s bad social skills are on full display this episode, and Thein An and Maggie both fully dunk on him. Strategically bad episode too, he wants to be open to anything and anybody but nobody is open to him.
Maybe he can turn this around? Mike’s introduction was so good that I’m not going to drop him fully yet, but another really bad episode or set of nothing episodes and he’s gone.
He makes some good TikToks though!

1. Eric.

Visibility and consistency are the only things going for Eric; but the show still does not take him seriously.
Eric is too much of a cornball. The edit doesn’t try to make him look competent to offset that or show that he’s actually well liked (he isn’t) they just show him being a cornball. There isn’t anything wrong with that, but I just can’t see the edit making the winner look so… cringe.

🐋Carter Jail Tier🐋

1. Carter.

That 0 confessional episode is fucking him up 😭 Carter’s edit is so weird. He’s clearly important and has been set up as a character and player; he’s got established relationships and his position has always been clear, he gets constant content (besides that one episode). But then his edit gets weird with the 0 confessional episode and not getting nearly as much credit as Lewis for the Patt vote. Carter’s edit is very rootable and likable, we’re meant to take him seriously but his edit is just all over the place. I have no idea what to do with him, so he stays in jail this week.

🐋Yeah, It’s Over Tier🐋

1. Alexis.

Good on her for staying, but the edit made her look very intense and paranoid the entire scramble and tribal. Compared to her edit when she was ‘leading’ the vote with Sharonda and Linnea, it really puts into perspective that Sharonda and Linnea are what makes the edit positive, not Alexis.

1. Kilby.

Very villainous turn for Kilby this episode, and he’s clearly being established as someone who is going to get knocked off his high horse. The relationship with Eric is weird, I don’t really know how the audience is meant to react to it; I think they’re definitely meant for each other in their own special way 😵‍💫
I think Kilby’s maniacal mastermind gameplay is going to cause him to go home, maybe he throws Eric’s name out and Eric’s honesty and sincerity comes out on top of Kilby’s duplicitousness

1. Thein An.

Her mission: End Mike

1. Cristin.

After that confessional, it makes very clear sense why Cristin isn’t getting much content; he is extremely boring and surface level. Potentially twist screwed by that blood ring in NTOS… that should be fun.

The swap is here! New beaches, new numbers, new dynamics and sadly one less chicken.

Cristian, Thien An and Mike are out of contention so far, and as always I only write about the five players I am most seriously considering. Honestly, this week was hard. The edit is doing a really good job this season of keeping almost everyone in play, and two of my five are people I had not even thought about cutting before.

Lewis is up first, and his episode bugged me more than I expected. Everything the edit has given him so far points in one direction. He volunteered to start alone, he told us he was there to play bold, he said he was used to uncertainty, and then he broke the five. That is a pretty consistent risk taker story. So why is he the one we see panicking about the swap? Of all people, the edit picks the uncertainty guy to be scared of uncertainty in a season literally built around it. Maybe it is just a human moment. But it is also the last thing we hear from him in this episode, so I have no idea where he stands on Dina. That is a big hole in a swap episode.

Linnea is next (I know, shocking!). Her premiere set her up as the social one, and her Ana flip in Episode 2 felt like the payoff to that. The problem is that nothing from that flip has carried over. No new alliance, no new target, no follow-up on what she built. This week her main takeaway is that Kilby is dangerous, which everyone on Dina also thinks, and Sharonda says it in a way that makes her look sharper. Two episodes without a story of her own is concerning.

Eric I have never seriously considered cutting. His visibility is huge and we get his reasoning almost every week, which matters a lot more to me than tone (same reason Kilby is not on this list despite all the negativity around him). His problem in the edit is the direction. Four episodes in, the edit keeps telling the same joke: Eric thinks it is going great, everyone around him rolls their eyes. Last week I wondered if that was turning around. For a winner story I need people starting to warm up to him and take him seriously (like they frame Kilby as smart and dangerous), or at least one moment where Eric sees his own flaws (like Brady does). Until then, the transparent, annoying player label is going nowhere.

Alexis had a rough one. Her Episode 2 is still the best thing she has done, catching the popcorn lie and getting Ana out. That was real agency. But her premiere gave us almost no personal content and no plan, and this week we get the opposite of that Episode 2 player. She is scared, scrambling and the edit makes sure we know she is the only person on her tribe who has no idea what is going on. Jelly calls her paranoid and Jenna takes a shot at her on the way out. She survives, but not because of anything she did.

Ori is the one I struggled with most. On paper he had a good week. He protects Alexis, gets Jenna out. But the edit does not really let him own that. The romance with Jelly is told through Jelly and Devin, and it is framed as something complicating Jelly’s game, not his. And then there is the line about being here for the money but not minding finding love too. Cute, sure. But I wonder why the edit wants us to question what he is playing for in this game.

So here is where I am landing. Lewis survives, mostly because there is a real chance he was sick and simply did not do many interviews after the swap. If he is still a ghost next week, that excuse is gone. Linnea survives on the strength of her first two episodes, but she needs a new thread soon. Eric survives because his volume and reasoning still carry him, though I am now actively waiting for that framing to change. Ori survives because the “wins the money and the girl” story is still possible, even if he is now the one I am lowest on in the helicopter alliance.

That leaves Alexis. Paranoid winners exist. Tony won twice while being convinced everyone was out to get him. But with Tony we always knew what he was going to do about it. With Alexis I mostly see fear, and the plan to get out of it was somebody else’s.

I am cutting Alexis.

Eliminated from contention: Cristian, Thien An, Mike, Alexis
Out of the game: Aaliyah, Ana, Rob, Patt, Jenna

12 players left in the race.

TOP CONTENDERS

1 - Sharonda: Okay, after two weeks in a row where my #1 contender goes home the week after, I need to go for the safe choice and go with Sharonda here. I actually don’t think she is the winner of this season as I think her edit feels just too gamebotty and is lacking personal content. Maybe she just has a bland personality and that’s all they have to work with. I have compared her a lot with Kim Spradlin and she is giving off that vibe right now as a player. I feel like her edit feels too good to be true (for the new era) and with the helicopter alliance being so in our faces I have my doubts that somebody from there is actually winning, but we can’t ignore the fact that the helicopter alliance is the most complex alliance in the season right now and Sharonda is looking best. 

2 - Kristin: I was ready to drop Kristin, and she needed a strong episode and she got it. There was a little bit of hesitation from Carter, but I think this is a positive for her as it gives her something to overcome. I actually think Kristin’s edit is more in line with new era patterns than Sharonda’s BUT Sharonda’s edit clearly has longevity and she is definitely being set up to go far in the game whereas with Kristin I can see her being one of the next few boots OR the winner (this is kind of how I saw Jenna last week too). 

3 - Jelly: She has such a weird edit and I know she is being set up as an important player (helicopter alliance as a whole). I still think her premiere episode wasn’t really all that good, and I think she had a really good shielding episode in episode 3. Even though I think her premiere was not the greatest, I think she has recovered really well and it is enough to have her #3.

4 - Linnea: I think she is probably the best and most realistic pick for an UTR winner. She has been consistent in the show and she had a decent premiere. I would want her relationships to be better fleshed out for me to have her higher than this though. So far she feels like a secondary character. In a post-Aubry world though I think so far her edit is fine. If her edit picks up around the merge and she remains this consistent she is somebody to keep an eye on. 

POTENTIAL CONTENDERS: 

5 - Ori: I really like Ori as a player, but I feel like his edit isn’t really reflecting how good of a game he is playing. He is still part of the helicopter alliance and that gives him a HUGE boost. However this episode we saw him fight for Alexis (but we had no setup for this bond before?) I feel if he was the winner we would’ve had some sort of Ori and Alexis setup just to prepare us for this episode. In any case, I think he has a consistent edit so far and it is not too in your face which I think bodes well for him. 

6 - Lewis: A good follow up episode for him as well, nothing too special but I think it is fine for now. I feel like his edit is missing something and I don’t know exactly what. Time will tell. 

7 - Maggie: My gut feeling wants to have Maggie in top contention. I feel like they are purposefully giving Maggie just enough GOOD content here and there and she has been consistent in the edit when she could easily have been ignored on an episode. However, if I am being practical, her premiere was really bad as she was one of the last players to be introduced and she didn’t have much substance in the premiere. Following that though we’ve had some personal content and we have seen her relationships and good reads in the game. If she gets a come out episode soon I could see her be a serious contender, but right now she is more of a gut pick rather than a rational one. 

8 - Alexis: I am shocked she is still here. I really got blindsided by the edit and up until the last vote I still thought she was going. Having said that I don’t think this episode looked all that great for Alexis. Yes, she was saved, but she didn’t look all that good saving herself here. In any case, she is consistent in the edit and I could still see an UTR win for her right now.

UNLIKELY, BUT POSSIBLE: 

9 - Devin: He is starting to rise despite him being super wrong about many things (like doubting Jenna’s job) and some people saying he is too much. Even this episode Jelly called him out for being a bad wingman. He could be getting a Tony Cagayan edit. So that small possibility and the fact that he is in the helicopter alliance is what is giving him SOME hope. I think if he won they could edit him a bit better and leave out some o the negativity while keeping some of the OTT character moments. 

10 - Carter: He looked good in sussing out Kristin and he was absolutely right in his assessment. It was a quieter episode for him but I think this is all he needed. If it wasn’t for his 0 confessional episode I would have Carter as a top contender, especially given the fact that he was compared to JT (a former winner). 

11 - Eric: They continue to dunk on him and give him negativity (even this episode with Kilby saying that he is too obvious). I think it is a bit too late for a turnaround.. he is giving me final tribal loser vibes and I think his edit has longevity. 

12 - Thien An: Her edit is still pretty bad given how good of a game she is playing. She is clearly being presented as a rational and smart player and very levelheaded. We are just not seeing much of her. Even last episode when she was the clear person who orchestrated Patt’s boot, her credit got a bit undermined by Lewis and Carter who ultimately were the swings. This episode we see Carter talk positively of her. Her edit screams no chance, but her really good gameplay is what’s giving her some hope. 

OUT OF CONTENTION: 

13 - Mike: I am ready to eliminate Mike. It was a fine episode, but I think for a male winner he would be a bigger personality by now. His premiere is still really strong in my opinion, but I just can’t help but feel that a male winner edit would look much better for him if he actually won. 

14 - Brady: Not a bad episode per se, but his overall edit is more of a big character than winner (for now).

15 - Kilby: He is having a resurgence, but it doesn’t undo how bad his first 2 episodes were. 

16 - Cristian: I am ready to call him Purple Cristian now. Genevieve by now had her infamous come out episode and even Sophie S in 49 had 4 confessionals through 4 episodes. He only has 2 and we know nothing about him or his game relationships. Nobody even mentions his name at camp and you barely see him in any camp scenes.

Hello I am mostly an edgic lurker, but I am interested to hear which past seasons of the show were the most difficult to edgic, had the most interesting/unique/distinct editing patterns, and/or had the consensus/expected winner change/fluctuate the most times throughout the course of the season?

Hello, everyone! I've decided to truly put my Edgic thoughts into words for the first time this season. I've heard about Edgic for the first time during 41, really took an interest to it during 43 and have been really looking at the show through that lens since 44, but I have been watching the show since Samoa and knew that the edit plays a part in determining the winner. Just never knew there's a whole science behind it. I have very reactionary takes, I'm biased towards the players I like which sometimes clouds my judgement and the thing I let guide me the most is vibes. I was adamantly anti Aubry last season, but my claim to fame is clocking Dee as the winner after the premiere of 45 and riding that train the whole season.

I have never been a part of Edgic during a two tribe season which I believe will make it a bit difficult for me since there are so many more potential relationships to explore. Different from the New Era where there were 3 duos in every tribe with 2 duos in each tribe forming a core 4.

Anyways, I'll try to make a post every week, briefly assessing the boot and ranking the remaining players based on what I think their odds at the win are. I'll try to stay away from other people's Edgics so as to not get influenced or worse, so keep in mind that that'll result in plenty of mistakes and horrible takes.

This episode was the weakest one so far, but still a pretty good one. I liked the Cagayan challenge and I thought there were some pretty fun soundbites there. The one I put in the title and Carter's "I like you, but I'm not a pig." Another woman getting booted, but in general, I feel much better about a woman winning this season than a man. Could be a SJDS situation.

Jenna was pretty swap screwed, really unlucky to end up with the two people that voted for her at the first tribal and their secret ally on the only tribe that had 5 people. The stars really aligned for her to get the boot, although I do think it was the wrong move gameplay wise and fully expected Alexis to go, but alas. I liked Jenna and her premiere edit confuses me a bit now. I already saw her going up in my rankings because she has a very Sandra style of play. She saw the writing on the wall that there's no flipping Ori and just went and threw Alexis under the bus as hard as she could. Devin was just way too tunnel visioned on her.

TOP CONTENDERS:

1. Sharonda (-) - Quieter episode for her, but got to narrate the preswap portion, outright stated that she's at the center of preswap Savu and seems to be fine at her new tribe. No one mentioned her and it seems that her connections really are good enough for her to be comfortable despite being the lone Helicopter member on Dina. I will say, her edit being really squeaky clean is a bit worrisome and I know that the editors in the New Era liked to at least manufacture some doubt even if there wasn't any. But we're not in the New Era, we're in the Open Era and with so much One World teasing this season, maybe Sharonda's the second coming of Kim Spradlin who just steamrolls to the end. What also keeps her here for me is that Sharonda's personality doesn't really pop all that much on the screen for me. I have a feeling that even if she was a big endgame player, but didn't win, she wouldn't be getting as much content.

2. Jelly (-) - These two are far and away at the top of the pack for me. Great post tribal content, saying she felt bad for Patt, vowing for revenge, finding a silver lining in having a secret idol. Just the stuff I wanted to see for her after the last episode ended. Got an extremely lucky swap, quite literally couldn't go any better for her. Not much else to say, she had yet another great episode, I really think that if it was up to her, Alexis would've gone, but it's very fine because the Helicopters are amassing a ton of power right now and I don't see anyone picking up on it any time soon.

3. Ori (+1) - Didn't think it after the premiere, but I'm fully expecting a Helicopter to win so far. He didn't have any real standout moments this episode, but I feel like, despite the matchmaking scene, he hid his allegiance to Devin and Jelly pretty under wraps. Alexis seemed to genuinely not be aware of it considering she came to Ori trying to target them. What's also good is he didn't panic, try to throw her under the bus right away, but just steered to vote to Jenna. Kept another Savu, fully strengthened his Helicopter bonds and is in a great position going forward considering they have another easy vote should they lose the next challenge.

4. Carter (-1) - The swap shook out pretty well for him, he was shown to be savvy staying sceptical about Kristin and formed a huge connection with Thien An. Carter himself said he's not that bright, but I feel like that's obviously untrue. He reads people and the relationships well, he's aware of his potential weaknesses and he found a trustworthy person with some power who complements him pretty well. We've already heard the J.T. comparisons. Thien An might just be his Stephen.

KEEPING AN EYE ON:

5. Linnea (-) - Here mostly by the virtue of everyone else having somewhat suckier edits. Not much happened for her, in a majority in her new tribe. There could be some trouble with Eric, but I'm not too worried that Eric, Kilby and Lewis are going to pull anything crazy together. I can see Kilby and Lewis turning on each other just to get by.

6. Kristin (-) - She's very present yet again. What I keep noticing with Kristin is we see a bunch of her camp life scenes. Those that aren't followed by confessionals, no game talk or anything, but we're constantly being reminded she's there. A few episodes ago when she said her partner does improv, this episode when she said she knew what Toka means, these are very little moments that have no real importance to the greater narrative, but they're there. There are some hiccups with her edit, but she has proven to be useful to her new tribe, got a ton of PSPV. The Carter interaction was a bit of a red flag, but she wasn't made out to look as a fool nearly as much as Mike was for example. I like Kristin's odds, I could see her getting there.

7. Maggie (+1) - Ever since the premiere, I felt something about Maggie and she's just steadily going up episode after episode. Didn't let herself get steamrolled by Brady in the post tribal portion. Is in the clear majority with an extra vote that holds even more power now. She's also always there, something in my gut tells me to feel good about Maggie.

8. Thien An (+7) - Hello, Thien An! What a great episode for this woman. Seems to be the head of the majority at nuToka, established an extremely important relationship with Carter and seems to be Maggie's number one too. She dgaf about Brady, she mocked Mike's obvious attempts at ass kissing, she was just great. I have a hard time believing she's winning, possibly a harder time than a few people under her in this ranking because the first three episodes really weren't all that good, but we're in the Open Era and we don't know how they edit their winners because of all the Permanent Uncertainty.

9. Lewis (-2) - Really meh episode. Didn't honestly get that much heat for sleeping in the boat instead of working on the shelter. Eric did say that due to being the minority, being sick and not being Kilby, he'd be the first to go if they lost, but I'm not so sure. Would love to see him mingle more, maybe get some relationships established, but he was sick so I can look past that. Also, maybe none of the people on Dina have much to do with his game going forward so that's why nothing's being established and that'd also be fair, IMO.

I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO THINK:

10. Alexis (+4) - She's insane, I love her lol. Trying to keep Jenna's shoes as collateral was all time. She's not winning, she's oblivious to the fact that Ori's super tight with Jelly and Devin, but I do feel like she does have a knack for the game so I feel a need to put her here. I just wish she wouldn't get so intense during pre tribal scrambles. Sis needs to get it together and calm down a bit. Hoping for her she can survive until the merge because she's toast if they see another tribal.

11. Brady (-2) - I'm super hot and cold on Brady. He's so intense and it was funny how he tried to strongarm Maggie, saying he didn't care she didn't want to talk and she just walked away. He's out of his element. He thinks he's a much better player than he is. That's not to necessarily say he's bad, but he's not great. I did catch that sneaky unwillingness to admit he voted for Kilby, kudos to him for keeping a door open.

12. Eric (-2) - He's really annoying lol. I'm glad he gets to be himself and that he's enjoying himself out there, as well as the fact that he found his kindred spirit. But to quote Courtney Yates, he's on a crusade to be the most annoying person in camp. The constant songs are way too much and he's honestly lucky they need him as a number. When Kilby says you're being too much and too obvious, you need to take a moment and reevaluate. He didn't say it to him and if he did, I feel like he really would've taken it to heart and been devastated. Not all that good.

THERE'S NO WAY:

13. Devin (-) - I'm fully never moving Devin out of this tier. He got a godlike swap and finally got Jenna out, but I'm sure that this type of tunnel vision gameplay will come back to bite him sooner or later. He's in an undeniably good position and will be for pretty much the entire game, but he's been called a bully and condescending. He'd have to perform miracles to ever be a contender for a jury vote and even then, it wouldn't be a sure thing.

14. Kilby (-2) - Throwing half of your original tribemates under the bus in front of Jeff and the entire cast is never a good move, lol. Those doors really didn't have much of a chance to open up, but she sure damn made it publicly sure that they stayed shut. Great move establishing a relationship with Erik, but how much power can that alliance genuinely have? He plays just like a Redditor would.

15. Mike (-4) - Boy, oh, boy, what a fall from grace since the premiere. Got absolutely dunked on. Everyone sees through him, he still has no relationships that have been talked about and seems to be the easy vote if nuToka loses. Just super bad.

16. Cristian (-) - What even is there to say, he either quits or gets royally screwed at some point. Jeff always asks him questions at the challenges and now at the swap, there seems to be a personality there that production liked to rely on during filming so I'm incredibly curious to see how his story ends because this is too funny at this point.

16: Cristian: Very nice of them to give him a confessional today. I guess he’s just a snooze fest and that’s why he gets nothing.

15: Brady: I can super confidently say that I don’t believe Brady is winning this season. He is constantly shown as overconfident and sort of temperamental, and I think it would show him as more calm and composed if he were the winner.

14: Alexis: She survived, which I really wasn’t expecting. But it still put her in a bad light and she will certainly go home if that group goes back to tribal.

13: Eric: Editorial note - a little too much Eric and Kilby tonight! Matter of fact, way too much! Eric made a new alliance but was shown as sort of obvious about it.

12: Kilby: Kilby was shown as, I guess, the more mellow one in the alliance. But he has still been contradicted by the edit so much early on.

11: Thien An: She has had a good edit since the bagel in episode 2, so she stays sort of high up. I still am not completely sold on her but she is pretty well positioned.

10: Mike: I still have Mike in the running here. He gets little content, negative SPV, but I just can’t let go of the fact that his confessionals are so strong strategically.

9: Carter: Our other 0 confessionalist comes in here. Carter has an interesting edit that I can’t quite decipher, but I still think he will be important down the line as a bridge between two tribes.

8: Devin: He has a super big, sometimes negative edit, but I believe that he has a chance to win even with a sort of villainous edit. We have a glimpse of his personality and his strategic game, even if it’s chaotic.

7: Kristin: Solid content for Kristin this week, who I will keep in the running as she has had a consistent story each week. She was introduced early and has carried that story throughout.

6: Ori: Not quite as much for Ori this week, but I’ll keep him up here because of the helicopter alliance story. I see Ori as pretty clearly safe until the merge unless disaster strikes.

5: Linnea: A solid episode again for Linnea, who I believe is in the majority unless E*ic flips. She has been a fairly consistent narrator after the first episode and has a strong relationship with Sharonda.

4: Lewis: Not quite as much for Lewis this week, though it was pretty clear why. He was sick, though still got a chance to explain himself about the Patt Vote. Could be in trouble at the next tribal though.

3: Maggie: Maggie shoots up as she continues to get consistent content. She is hilarious also, by the way. Maggie was on the right side of the vote, got to talk about it, and explained her spot on her new tribe.

2: Jelly: Just an outstanding episode for Jelly this week, and she still has the idol. She is sort of shielded from all the negativity surrounding the 5 who had just been blindsided, was a big driver behind the vote, and was able to hide her idol from everyone.

1: Sharonda: I am keeping Sharonda at one this week because she gets consistent strategic content, even when, like this week, there is seemingly no reason for it. She will clearly be a very important player on this season, as she is mentioned across tribes, I just worry that she may be our dragon for Jelly or Maggie.

Hello everyone!

Whew, what a rollercoaster. I thought Alexis was completely cooked.

Anyway, here's my EDGIC for this episode!

See you soon with the new SUTRAL!

Byeeeee

Top Contenders

1. Linnea. I felt that it was a bad episode for some of the others that I'd had around her level in the past. I liked a lot of her content here. She got levelheaded narration, she reminded us that her position in the tribe was good and she didn't want to have to cut them (right before a swap so she didn't have to), seemed to be liked by Kilby in the new tribe, and let Sharonda take on the more paranoid role with Eric which I think is a positive for Linnea. I also loved some of the cuts to her in the challenge while Jeff talked about teamwork and communication. Overall I just think she has the strongest edit consistently even if it's not the loudest.

2. Jelly. I liked this episode for her mostly. Great long term strategic content, pushed back on the showmance narrative for a strategy narrative. However, I didn't like that she was shown as the main driver of an Alexis boot (which I felt the show was telling us was correct by giving us entirely Jenna's POV) only to back out of it. That keeps her from #1 for me.

3. Sharonda. I didn't like that Sharonda was a negative voice about the prospect of a swap. Noticeably last season, Aubry was often shown as a positive voice about twists while other contestants who fell victim to them like Genevieve had negative confessionals about them, including the initial swap (which notably is not the twist that took Gen out).

Flawed Contenders

1. Maggie. I really liked the strong relationship scene between her and Thien An here. I like how much she gets to narrate, and I think she's consistently shown to have strong strategic instincts and reads. I still need a little more of a longterm storyline for her but I think she is someone the show wants us to remember. Feeling more losing finalist than winner but that may just be because that's where women of her archetype often end up,

2. Carter. I think that if we believe the show could give us a 0 confessional episode as a way to throw us off after seeing all of the discourse last season, it makes sense to keep Carter in contention. He has some of the most defined relationships in the cast, with the amazing scene with Thien An today, lots of content with Lewis and Brady last episode, and a lot of context with Kristin today. I liked the scene with Kristin and showing us that he won't forget being left out of the vote.

3. Lewis. Did not like how he got very little chance to explain the scenes of him sick on the boat. Just felt like completely unnecessary negativity. But he still has an overall strong edit so could recover from this after a big episode last week.

4. Thien An. Getting two very complex relationship scenes is a great sign for Thien An. If she hadn't had such an abysmal start I would have her in top contention (though I don't hate her opening confessional about being small around the big guys). I think the thing that keeps her in contention for me is that she fits the archetype of the kinds of winners the show has under-edited in the past. I worry about the Mike dynamic with her as she's talked a lot about him for two episodes.

5. Kristin. Kristin continues to get positive, consistent content, and has a story. She got everything you'd want about repositioning yourself here. I just still think her edit leads more towards big character with a big blindside more than it does to winner.

Longshots

1. Ori. Felt like such a side character here in the story of Jelly and Devin even if he did get his way.

2. Brady. More negativity and not enough of a bounce back from last episode, didn't get the chance to reconcile with anyone he'd been on the wrong side as or show us how he's improving his game.

3. Devin. Basically shown to look petty in the Jenna situation as she repeatedly tried to actually work with him, and even though he got his way I think he was made to look like he was making the wrong choice. The scene about the showmance was also just horrid for him.

Can't See It

1. Mike. Basically two straight episodes of being absolutely dunked on by the edit. His montage of telling every new person he wanted to be their #1 was reminiscent of Genevieve throwing Aubry under the bus to everyone who would listen in 50 and Aubry telling everyone the same thing in EoE. That kind of sequence is never good.

2. Kilby. Similar to Eric but got a bit more strategic content, I see him as a big character but not a winner.

3. Eric. Obviously has some storyline longevity now with Kilby but was basically immediately clocked for it by Sharonda. Still too overwhelmingly negative to win.

4. Alexis. She survived what seemed like a surefire swapfuck... and the show did nothing but dunk on her about how she did it for the whole episode. We were put on team Jenna for sure throughout that situation. She is easily in danger for next week's double boot.

5. Cristian. Most invis player of the season. Guessing he goes in next week's double boot or another double boot down the line.

Hello, and welcome back to Heaven, Hell and Limbo, where I am God and the Survivor contestants are my souls to judge.

Tonight we lost Jenna, who last week was ranked 12th in Hell. There's a lesson to be learned here I think, and that is having arguably the best premiere =/= you having the best edit. While I want to gloat and say I told you so.. you Jenna Truthers deserve respect. I'm sorry for your loss.

Not to toot my own Godly horn here, but this entire episode felt very vindicating. It reaffirmed a lot of placements I've had on my lists to almost an ominous degree. I'm waiting for my Brady-be-humble moment.

Category Explaination Time!

Heaven: If a contestant falls into this category, they have a high likelyhood of making it far into/winning the game. They're consistently shown, mostly positively/neutrally toned, and are featured a decent amount prior to the end of an immunity challenge.

Limbo: If a contestant falls into this category, while not a death sentence, their edit is inconsistent. One episode they're shown prominently, the next they're hardly shown. One episode they're shown positively, the next they're shown not-so-favorably. Or, the only time they were prominently featured was after an immunity challenge.

Hell: If a contestant falls into this category, they are almost certainly not winning the game. A contestant in this category can be prominently shown and even go far in the game, but have a villainous or staunchly negative edit. The contestant could have a positively toned edit, but if not shown prominently, still land in this category. Little screentime and mostly negatively toned edits are a death sentence.. most of the time.

With that out of the way, let's get started with our rankings this episode!

Hellish Contestants:

16.) Cristian: He got a good read on Eric and Kilby this episode so that's something.

15.) Mike: As soon as I saw a montage, I knew it was curtains. The last thing Mike needed this episode was more negative SPV after last episode.

14.) Kilby: While absolutely hilarious, the segment with him and Eric was most definitely made for us to laugh at them, not with them. The cut to Sharonda's face after showing Kilby twirl his hair was probably the loudest I've laughed at Survivor in awhile. He does get a singular point for calling out Eric as a potential crack in the alliance, though.

13.) Maggie: Maggie ranks this low, surprisingly not because of anything she said or did this episode, but because something Thien An said about her this episode. Thien An called Maggie her "Day 1." Now normally you would think this should bump Maggie up, that's an establishing relationship moment plus positive SPV. Instead though, what I see is the edit telling us this through Thien An, and not showing us this from Maggie's POV early on. This is the first I'm aware they were even this close, and if Maggie were to be the winner, you would think we would have heard about this earlier on.

12.) Eric: I said last episode if Eric received another positive episode, he would be promoted to Limbo. This was no such episode. Putting aside the segment of him and Kilby that was made for us to laugh at them, the edit showed Brady aggressively telling him to stop talking, him shutting up right after, then showing Mike high-five Brady for doing so. Not good, folks. Not good at all.

11.) Alexis: Was given visibility, but a lot of negative SPV. Jelly calling her the devil she doesn't know, Jenna throwing her under the bus. Arguably was her first real tone we got this episode. And even though she survived this episode, I didn't get the sense there was any agency on her part. She was even shown having an incorrect read on Jelly; "I feel like you're lying to me." She continues to be Linnea Lite.

10.) Devin: Being that Jelly is his number 1, and he receives negative SPV from her, he goes even further down the list. His edit is close to giving flavors of Rome. Obvious villian who gets taken out somewhere around merge.

9.) Brady: We received good self-reflection from Brady this episode, saying he received some humble pie and that he needs to turn himself down some notches. Could be a turning point for him, but until further notice he remains in Hell.

8.) Thien An: Whaaaaaat, she's not bottom 2?! This was a great episode for Thein An following up her sudden visibility last episode. Positive SPV from Carter calling her wonderful, correct reads on Mike's middle-gameplaying, establishing relationships with Maggie. This is the biggest edgic flip so far this season. If next episode keeps this momentum.. I can't believe I'm saying this but I will consider promoting Thien An to Limbo!

Limbo; Death or Resurrection:

7.) Linnea: I was excited to see Linnea's potential ascension to Heaven after a slow incline on this list, but a quiet episode was not what we needed from her. I still feel like I need more from her. And next episode is the final line drawn in the sand. Either she gets a good, not decent but good episode next week, or she's shot to Hell.

6.) Carter: A par for the course episode for Carter this week keeping momentum from last week in visibility. While how mixed his tone was from last episode still gives me pause, this week he established an alliance with Thien An and correctly identified Kristin's manouvering tactics. Both positive aspects to his edit. I feel maybe a rivalry brewing between him and Kristin, and until there is a clear winner of that rivalry, Carter will remain high on the list, but still in Limbo.

Heavenly Contestants:

5.) Ori: I have very mixed feelings about Ori's edit but it mostly leans positive, which earned his spot in Heaven. In truth, I see Ori as a side character to Jelly. He feels like the Austin to Jelly's Dee. With that being said, I cannot deny his positive tones and visibility. My only gripe is I don't know of he's only this positive and visible due to his proximity to Jelly. I think back to his premiere, where strangely we only received other SPV's about him. And while they were positive, we received almost no POV from himself. Which reaffirms my feelings for him as a side character.

4.) Lewis: After last episode, Lewis can afford a quiet episode. I was lenient with Kristin last week for this same reason, and look at her this week. It's almost a good thing to have some quiet episodes for your edit this early I feel, as to not suffocate us with the fact that these players will make it far. Get your rest, King.

3.) Sharonda: Sharonda finally leaves top 2! I've been wrestling with her edit for a little bit. Because on paper, her edit looks pretty good! She's only ever received positive SPV, great alliance positioning, leads votes. But something that's been nagging me about her edit is how oddly lifeless it feels. The thing that's lacking in Sharonda's edit is strong personal connections. Take Carter's edit for example; we see him building bonds with Lewis and Thein. Jelly with Ori, Eric with Kilby. Sharonda's closest connection that I can tell is with Linnea. But I feel the only time we ever see them together, or hell, the only time we only ever really see Sharonda, is whenever it's to talk strategy. It makes her edit feel souless, which is why the two above her are above her.

2.) Kristin: Kristin continues to be visible. Received positive SPV from Brady. Is shown helping her tribe and trying to socially position herself. Mike wants to work with her (but then again, Mike wants to work with everyone). Is shown once again like the premiere, having confidence in her abilities. The only real flaw in Kristin's edit so far is Carter calling her out in a confessional. That little thread has the potential to unravel her entire game. But until we get a definitive winner in that rivalry, the edit has been more up on Kristin than Carter. So here she stays.

1.) Jelly: Geez, what's not to say? This was the "Jelly is the winner" episode if I have ever seen one. It almost makes me nervous; I've always had her as my Arch Angel and now it feels so obvious I'm preparing for the worst. But paranoia aside, let's dive into why this episode to me reaffirmed my confidence that Jelly is getting a winner's edit.

To backtrack, I called Ori the Austin to Jelly's Dee. That comparison feels even more apt with how much of Jelly's edit is reminding me of Dee's. When Ori was talking about the potential showmance with Jelly, the music being played almost felt like "oh boy, another guy falling in love on Survivor how silly." But when Jelly talked about the same thing? The music transitioned to a more serious, sentimental tone.

Jelly then correctly identifies Devin as playing too much of a role in forcing a relationship between the two. This is huge. The edit supports Jelly's claims by showing Devin once again overconfidently devising a "masterplan" to stoke a showmance as to paint a target on Jelly and Ori's backs. And it's not Ori that's calling Devin out, it's Jelly. Once again Jelly calls out her number 1 as someone that is putting a damper on her game. (The previous time, Jelly told Devin to stop being so loud and honest because it could bite her in the ass if he says the wrong thing.)

Finally, and most damningly, what pings me to Jelly's winner edit is her finally being on the right side of the vote, and how the edit treated this. Previously, I said Jelly being protected from being on the wrong side of the vote twice was a sign of a winner. Now, we see the edit basically giving Jelly all the agency and credit for this vote. The entire pretribal felt like "this vote is very important for the future of my success."

At this point, I don't see how anyone can look at Jelly's edit and not see the Arch Angel that she is. But, like I said at the beginning of this post, I could be in for a rude humble pie awakening.

Their souls have been judged. Until next week.

Okay, time to write this up finally. Weird week, definitely the weakest episode of the season so far. Still enjoying it quite a bit, though I'm surprised to lose Jenna so early. I was definitely talked into being higher on her, but I do think the reasons I had seen were pretty fair. Regardless, the ranking this week is actually just a bunch of tiers of exactly two people lol, you'll see. Ton of 2s and 3s for visibility this week, with there also being no 1s or 5s.

Top Contenders

1. Sharonda (=) - Part of me did consider moving Jelly above her, but that was mostly an idea because Jelly got a lot of content due to being at tribal. I still think Sharonda overall has the better edit.

2. Jelly (=) - Very strong edit from her tonight though. She got a confessional very similar to the one Jenna got in episode 2, talking about how she will do well after being left in the game. I've been high on her all season, and I'm glad I was early to that train.

Contenders

1. Linnea (+2) - Quieter episode for her, mostly just goes up because others drop to be honest. I think she has simply just had good content up to this point.

2. Carter (+3) - Definitely kind of a strange pick. The zero confessional episode is clearly a red flag, but it's not like that's stopped me before from having someone high. I do really think the winner is one of the top 3 probably (mainly the top 2) and Carter is sort of a gamblers pick. We've gotten some really good SPV for him at points, but it's also been countered too.

Loose Contenders

1. Ori (-2) - He didn't get content until so late in the episode, and it really wasn't anything special. He always seems to be the sound board for the side that isn't getting their way at tribal. Regardless, he is consistently visible, positive, and he is well established socially.

2. Kristin (=) - I imagine me giving her a positive surprises people. I totally get that Carter calling her out in his confessional could be a reason to give Kristin an M, but in the very same conf Carter talked about still liking Kristin. Regardless, I do think Kristin had a strange episode that could either be looked at as either a good or bad turning point in the future.

Probably Not

1. Lewis (+1) - I've been much lower on Lewis than most people have been all season, though once again we have a case of someone going up because others go down. This episode wasn't the greatest for him. I'll give some grace as he clearly wasn't feeling well.

2. Maggie (+3) - In the first draft of this ranking I had her as low as 13th, but I just feel like she is going to make it really far, she may even have finalist upside. She is shown when they simply just do not need to show her. She has gotten positivity from time to time, and episode 3 was at least okay for her. The picks below her all have essentially zero chance in my opinion.

Big Character With Longevity

1. Eric (+1) - This tier and the next were ordered a bit differently originally as well, though I do think Eric stands above for one main reason. This guy has serious losing finalist upside, or he makes it far and is cut right before the finale. Regardless, he has longevity. Is he a serious contender? I don't think so.

2. Devin (-1) - Likewise, he is going to be here for a WHILE. This episode was definitively bad for him though, showing him to be a direct nuisance to Jelly at points. He is also simply just too negative to win. Still, I see losing finalist and endgamer potential in him like with Eric. If anything, I would say Devin is probably more likely to go far? I just feel Eric has a higher ceiling.

Big Characters With Less Longevity

1. Kilby (+3) - I had him above Eric and Devin at first because I didn't think this episode was as bad for him as it was for the other two, but really the whole context of his season was enough to keep him here. The episode was also definitely just worse for him than I originally thought.

2. Brady (+3) - Remains kind of a joke, a joke we're supposed to sympathize with at points at least, but they certainly don't hide away from giving him negative content as needed. Not a fan of this archetype, though he has had a few fun moments.

Quieter + Majorly Dunked On

1. Mike (=) - Back to back negative episodes for him is obviously a bad sign. At first I thought he was getting good content, and then the other shoe dropped and Thien Ann and Maggie called him out. This really killed him. Also he's just so boring man, bro is John Survivor.

2. Alexis (-2) - I've been higher on her than most people have been, but I do think this was a really bad episode for her. I felt they could have given her a lot more credit than they did for saving herself. Furthermore, she is obviously the easy boot if her tribe is to attend tribal again.

Too Quiet

1. Thien An (+1) - I know most people have been raising her a good bit, but I just don't see it. Like yea, her content has gotten better, but its not like that is a hard bar to clear. She is still too quiet, and her first two episodes were practically nonexistent. Her in-game position is better than I thought at least.

2. Cristian (+1) - He got content! Oh my god! It wasn't much though! At least he wasn't the least visible player of the episode... (okay he lowkey probably was tbh)

Eliminated

1. Jenna (-13) - Already spoke on earlier, but man I was not expecting her to go out this episode. I am feeling so washed up bro, I keep losing contenders. I SWEAR I'M USUALLY BETTER THAN THIS! It's just happening in multiple shows LOL. Editors are trying to mess with me specifically

Well, that episode kinda sucked. Not even for who left it was just so boring for a scramble.

Chart is above for quick reference.

Eliminated:

1. Jenna: Yeah, my gut call after the premiere was right. I do think she should have seen a rise after ep2, but last episode in retrospective was worse with her not being included.

No Shot:

1. Cristian:

2. Alexis: Shoe Thief 2.0 (or 3.0 I feel like we've gotten one before Jake in 49). No credit for saving herself in the vote. I would be shocked if she isn't one of the two people going home next week (presumably if two tribes are going to tribal, it might also be the GC twist where two tribes vote one person out)

3. Mike: He just feels like Charlie Davis. Sniped right before the merge.

4. Thein An: I mean, she is getting strategic content. Would have been nice if she was on the show before this.

5. Kristin: Standing on this take. Her premiere was mixed after the initial negotiation content, injury content felt like it was there to dunk on Rob, and now this episode was just typical "Oh, I got swap screwed. Got to make connections" type episode. I think she does survive the vote but still lacking in relationships.

6. Kilby: Still seen as a target and people are onto his relationship with Eric. Honestly, I see him or Eric as merge boot.

Probably Not:

1. Devin: No reaction before the swap to being blindsided. Gets unnecessarily crapped on by Jelly as a wingman, called a villain by Eric and Kilby, and not even in the spotlight of trying to get Jenna out since Ori gets as much.

2. Eric: Lots of content on loving Kilby. Decent until Sharonda calls it out. All the negativity from episode 2 is keeping him down.

3. Brady: He's still not winning, I just think everyone else below is worse. I'm glad he at least got to talk about the blindside and about the tribe after the swap. He did get clowned on though by Maggie and Lewis.

4. Linnea: Just not enough content. Nothing too negative though. Again, just not much to write about.

5. Lewis: Loved the immediate talk after tribal. Hated everything where he wasn't there post swap. I know he was sick but still.

They can win:

1. Sharonda: I think if the helicopter alliance was more negatively tinged, she would be higher. But I think the edit isn't completely wrecking the alliance. So Sharonda having the least content, crapping on the show, and having no relationships outside of it kinda sucks. Again, she's present enough and look who's below her but still.

2. Maggie: Got good content dunking on Brady and reacting to the vote, then dunking on Mike. Still would like more from her. Thein An calling Maggie her number 1 feels very off, but also Sharonda has the same thing with Kristin. I'm mainly putting Maggie above Sharonda because Maggie feels less important to the season compared to Sharonda while getting roughly the same content.

3. Carter: Idk how someone with a 0 confessional episode is this high, but again he gets good content with his relationship with Thein An and clearly outlines his desire to get Kristin out. I think he'll go go next week if Mike goes but right now, he's here.

Clear Contenders:

1. Ori: I think him and Jelly are far above the rest of the pack. Both have been shielded. Both have explained their relationships in the game properly. Both are getting plenty of strategic content letting us know their place in the game.

2. Jelly: I am putting her above Ori because she was a bit more shielded in episode 3 than Ori was in episode 2. I also think her response in the beginning on this episode was fantastic, saying the other alliance made a mistake keeping her.

The winner is someone who is making strong connections that stick and not just trying to be in with everyone at all times. This was shown tonight to highlight Mike's strategic error, reinforced with Carter/Thein An, and proven in the vote when the Helicopter Alliance voted as three to take out Jenna. With that in mind, here are my quick thoughts:

Jelly: She fits the theme! Day 1 connection with Devin and Ori was highlighted tonight.

Devin: He fits the theme, but I am lower on him for other reasons.

Ori: He fits the theme as he wanted to keep both the Helicopter Alliance and Alexis.

Alexis: Not sure she totally fits the theme in the direct way I am imagining.

Mike: Absolutely does not fit the theme! In fact, he is going against the theme with his lack of subtlety when it comes to his attempts at social bonds.

Maggie: Maybe? I am not directly getting it from her at this point. EDIT: Now that I think about it, she was the main narrator of the Mike scene so she's fitting this theme in the sense that she's talking about it, even if the theme isn't focused on her own game yet.

Thein-An: Sort of. Her and Carter made a strong connection tonight but I'm not sure if we've really seen the other 1:1 connections she has. I am still not seeing the winner vision in her edit but think she could be someone to watch when it comes to the direction of the theme itself.

Carter: Hahaha! So he did go from one tribe to another last episode. But other than a slight joking comment, Thein-An did describe him as a solid, stable ally. I tend to think this isn't Carter's winning story but the edit seems to tell us tonight that he is fitting this theme even if the mutiny itself would suggest otherwise. I'm looking forward to seeing where his connection with Lewis goes if/when they reunite.

Linnea: Maybe? I'd need to see how her connections stick in the coming episodes. Right now her content seems central to her and observing other people/situations and not so much of her game relationships (other than ep. 2).

Kristen: Her story is also feeling sort of individualized. Good content tonight about her job and why she will make it through this swap, but seems like her main connection is with someone who we're seeing as a poor strategic and social player.

Eric: He related to Kilby in tonight's episode about video games and Disney movies. Eric was at the bottom on his old tribe and mainly stayed due to other circumstances rather than his game relationship with anyone. I think if Eric did win, it would be a story about slowly making connections throughout the game and sticking with someone once you finally find them.

Lewis: His main content tonight was about wanting to see the remaining players in the 5-person alliance crumble. Lewis was not feeling well in tonight's episode and because of that, the most stable relationship we see is him and resting.

Kilby: Feels like he isn't fitting the theme. His gameplay last episode tells me he's playing messy and not set in with one person or group.

Sharonda: She SO fits the theme! The Helicopter Alliance was reinforced last episode and this one, even though it wasn't her who reminded us of it.

Cristiann: He at least got a confessional tonight?

Brady: Totally betrayed this episode. It does feel like he fits the theme in the sense of being mad at Carter/Lewis in a situation where they are his brodies and highlighting the importance of people who have each other's back.

The people who best fit the theme of a stable, trustworthy, rock-solid person are Sharonda, Jelly, Ori, Devin (but not so much feeling him as a contender), Carter, Thein-An, and Maggie (moved her up upon further consideration)

The people who somewhat fit the theme/unsure: Linnea, Kristen, Eric, Lewis (next week I could see this being more clear because I could almost see him going either way, haha), and Brady

The people who do not fit the theme: Mike, Kilby, Alexis, Cristian

Wow! Another week, another edgic blindside (unless you saw this coming, in which case props to you). My week 1 winner pick, Jenna, is out of here, but the game goes on! Here are the brand-new contender rankings:

— Sharonda —

1. Sharonda - Her at #1 shouldn’t be a surprise at this point. She’s the winner in waiting, she keeps getting good, balanced, strategic content, she’s gonna occupy this spot until there’s a good reason to get rid of her.

— Strong competitors —

1. Ori - It feels wrong to take Jelly out of that #2 spot, but Ori just had another great episode with strong SPV and a seemingly instrumental role in getting Jenna out after having had a pretty consistent edit up until now. 

2. Jelly - Of course, Jelly’s holding onto her high ranking here. The Jenna boot was framed as revenge for the Patt boot and even if she wasn’t the one piloting it, she’s found herself in a much better position than she was before.

3. Kristin - Kristin gets to work whenever she’s put on the back foot, and we got to see that again after checking in with her this episode. This rating could be risky given that she seems like she’s in danger if her tribe goes to tribal, but nothing’s certain in this game, and we just need to follow the story the edit’s telling us.

4. Linnea - Under the radar episode from her where she was slotted into the role of “another Savu” but nothing negative to counteract her steady edit.

5. Devin - Worst rating in the Helicopter Alliance, but being in there’s still paying dividends and it’s clear now that his failure to get Jenna out in Episode 1 was setting up his storyline much more than hers.

6. Lewis - Just because he’s out of my top 4 doesn’t mean he’s not a strong contender, but this was a pretty bad episode from him that he spent mostly curled up in a boat and excluded from the strategy.

— Still in it — 

1. Maggie - She gets to be the person who makes fun of everyone else’s mistakes and has done so with exactly 2 confessionals per episode - enough to make us remember who she is, not enough to make her a defining character of the season so far.

2. Alexis - A little chaotic for my liking, but I guess she survived the vote? She hasn’t done anything damning yet but I’m not super optimistic about her prospects.

— I can’t see it —

1. Eric - I cringed worse at the montage of Eric’s crush on Kilby than I did when Brady cut off his thumb. He’s just been a goofball all game which is better than being incompetent and yes, whackadoodles win, but I just don’t see the part where he can get serious respect from his competitors.

2. Brady - Not great from the Brodie as we got very little screentime from him and some of the screentime he did get was calling himself stupid, but nothing’s fully eliminated him yet.

3. Mike - It's basically over for team Mike - when he was quiet but smart seeming early game we had hopes he could have his visibility spike later and take control of the game, but now he's just getting made fun of constantly for being boring and obvious which is a pretty bad sign.

4. Kilby - Kilby wished to find his footing and a good ally on his swap tribe and oh boy did that monkey’s paw curl. He’s still just been edited as a weird little gremlin who thinks he’s more powerful than he is.

— 0 Confessional Hell —

1. Carter - Good screentime still, no clue why they gave him that 0 conf ep or I’d be taking him much more seriously as a winner candidate

2. Thien An - She’s talking strategy more just like last week, so that’s a plus! She’s still out of the race though.

3. Cristian - Congrats to Cristian for doubling his confessional count from 1 to 2. That’s the nicest thing I can say.

Well, it's not every day when I get genuinely blindsided by a vote. At the same time, I feel good that I called out Jenna's premiere as circumstantial. With that out of the way, here's my rankings:

1. Ori: This might seem crazy, but hear me out. He got his way with the vote over Jelly, and he got a lot of good personal content/a solid continuation of the showmance storyline with Jelly. That, plus the helicopter alliance, has him up here.

2. Jelly: Both of her storylines had continuations this episode, like with Ori. However, she was the main voice other than Jenna for the Alexis plan, so I have her below Ori for now.

3. Sharonda: A fairly weak episode for her. She got some more stuff about Eric, but otherwise she didn't get much else of substance. Also, if CTT holds for the Open Era, then Dina seems like the clear non-complex tribe to me.

4. Kristin: She got some heat this episode, but also got a good continuation of her episode 2 with her nature research coming into play. Honestly though, I have her up here mostly because everyone below her has some kind of red flag, over her having a super strong edit.

5. Carter: I know, I know. He has a 0-confessional episode. However, outside of that, he has a really strong edit. Hell, that 0-confessional episode even had a lot from him outside of confessionals. Overall, I feel a lot better about his chances now than I did last week.

6. Eric: This may seem wild after his first two episodes, but I feel good about his chances. He has a strong storyline, was the main focus of his tribe this episode, and overall has been a major presence in a season without many of them. Maybe I'm falling for the bait, but I really do see something in him.

7. Lewis: While he has yet to really have any sort of content that isn't circumstantial, I stick by a lot of my points from last episode. Also, he has an excuse for not having a lot of screentime this episode, with him being sick and all.

8. Linnea: Her edit's been fine, I guess. I dunno, I just don't have a lot to say about her.

9. Devin: Of the three 'big character' players, I have Devin the highest because he's in the helicopter alliance.

10. Kilby: He got some solid content this episode, but still has some target on him even on his new tribe.

11. Brady: This episode was horrible for him. He was framed heavily as being very salty, and Maggie's comment about him near the start was anything but flattering.

12. Thien An: Her episode 2 remains a thorn in her side. She had a solid episode this time around, but it's not enough to bring her up my list all that much.

13. Mike: If last episode was bad for him, this episode is worse. I truly think that, right now, there's no chance for him to win.

14. Maggie: She had fine content this episode, I guess, but she was still very quiet. That, plus her horrible content last episode, leaves her down here for me.

15. Alexis: I had already had my doubts about her, and this episode reinforced them. Despite her surviving, they focused a lot on her paranoia, and with next episode being a double-boot, part of me wonders if they used this episode to set-up for her going out there to give them more time to tell us the story of the other boot.

16. Cristian: I mean, do I even have to explain it?

Contender ratings

1. Sharonda 4.25
2. Jelly 4.00
3. Lewis 3.77
4. Ori 3.62
5. Kristin 3.38
6. Linnea 3.31
7. Carter 3.15
8. Jenna 2.92
9. Devin 2.46
10. Mike 2.31
11. Brady 2.23
12. Eric 2.15
13. Maggie 2.08
14. Kilby 1.92
15. Thien An 1.62
16. Alexis 1.54
17. Cristian 1.00

Character ratings

1. Rob 4.40
2. Carter 4.10
3. Brady 4.10
4. Lewis 3.90
5. Patt 3.70
6. Devin 3.50
7. Kristin 3.40
8. Kilby 3.20
9. Jelly 3.10
10. Eric 3.10
11. Linnea 3.00
12. Sharonda 3.00
13. Maggie 2.90
14. Ori 2.80
15. Jenna 2.70
16. Thien An 2.50
17. Alexis 2.10
18. Mike 1.60
19. Cristian 1.30

Raw results

Come on in!

Here are my winner contenders (based on the edit) after Episode 3. Once again, I had an early boot in my top tier (Patt). After this week, we'll only list a top 4. Let's see how this season plays out! Rankings:

1) Sharonda - Pros: She had great SPV from Ori and also has clear relationships with Kristin, Linnea, and the helicopter alliance (lots of longevity for her). Her confessional about getting Devin alone and building a relationship with him also made her sound in control despite it being Devin's visit. Cons: Honestly, there aren't a ton at this point. She just needs to be sure she stays off radars as a threat.

2) Mike - Pros: He so far has had a confessional every episode and received from focus from editors even when it's not necessary (e.g., Brady's injury). This time, he got to tell us his thoughts on Carter coming to the Yellow tribe. Cons: Mike got bad SPV this episode from Thein An and the others in the majority vote. If this continues and we don't see him take control, he's going to slip down the rankings.

3) Linnea - Pros: She continued to get focus this episode from the editors and has decent relationships (Sharonda, Alexis). Mixed: Her confessional about Carter being the one to get the chance to visit the Yellow tribe is a double-edged sword -- it could seal her fate or be the editors wanting us to get Linnea's perspective because she is important. Cons: Her edit is not showing her as in control after the Ana vote, so we'll want to see how this continues playing out. My worry now is maybe she got a lot of focus early because she could be a boot after the tribe swap.

4) Carter - Pros: Huge episode for the farmer! He got tons of focus this episode and got to explain his thoughts on where the game was going after the Ana vote and Rob quit. He also showed us he has the idol, which I think indicates longevity and a potential move with it. Cons: The edit didn't make the mutiny look like a decision of Carter's, but rather circumstance. I don't believe that, but maybe they are trying to tell us Carter doesn't take initiative at all points in the game. Similarly, they show his blunder about leaving the advantage clue on top of his bag. Let us never forget the 0-confessional episode 2 for Carter. That is a problem for him as a winner contender and will always be. But others have overcome it before -- perhaps he'll be the first since Season 41.

5) Maggie - Pros: She has had a quiet but consistent edit this season with a bit of a breakout this episode. Her scene with getting the advantage from Brady was presented from her POV and her confessional sets the scene of going from mistake to triumph. We never hear from Brady, which is good for Maggie. Cons: She wasn't shown really leading the charge to take out Patt from the group with Thien An and Kilby. She also has not received a lot of strategic focus yet.

Decent Chance: Lewis*, Jelly, Jenna

Slight Chance: Thien An*, Brady, Kristin, Kilby*

Outside Shot: Devin*, Ori, Alexis

No Shot in Hell: Eric, Cristian

Eliminated: Patt, Rob, Ana, Aaliyah

*Worth Noting: Lewis got really good content this episode, working the middle of the tribe split with Carter. We got to see him understand the tribe dynamics and figure out how he wanted to integrate with the Yellow Tribe. However, nobody seems to have a super strong bond with Lewis and nothing in the edit is making me think he is about to take significant control in the game. Thien An's edit is interesting to me -- she is not getting focus when she should. The Patt vote really seemed like her idea and we see her be the one to pitch Patt's name to the group. However, the focus isn't about her. Either she is a super UTR winner or (my bigger fear) a swap/twist-screwed player. Kilby had a lot of focus this episode, but not for all the right reasons. His SPV from Devin was obviously super negative and now the Purple Tribe has a negative lens through which to view him. Plus, his comment about Brady making it back to Brady and almost blowing up his game made him look messy. I think Kilby goes deep, but is not our winner. Devin has had major focus every episode this season and this episode was no different. He got lots of confessionals and got to explain his move smearing Kilby's name. However, Devin has received way too much focus in my opinion to be our winner. Unless he's getting a sort of Tony edit, I think we are seeing the path towards Devin's downfall.

I am a Survivor superfan and have watched every single episode. I base my thoughts wholly on my gut as to how the producers have edited the castaways. I do not have insider information as to the results of the season. I also am not counting my personal feelings in favor of or against a castaway here.