TOP CONTENDERS

1 - Sharonda: Okay, after two weeks in a row where my #1 contender goes home the week after, I need to go for the safe choice and go with Sharonda here. I actually don’t think she is the winner of this season as I think her edit feels just too gamebotty and is lacking personal content. Maybe she just has a bland personality and that’s all they have to work with. I have compared her a lot with Kim Spradlin and she is giving off that vibe right now as a player. I feel like her edit feels too good to be true (for the new era) and with the helicopter alliance being so in our faces I have my doubts that somebody from there is actually winning, but we can’t ignore the fact that the helicopter alliance is the most complex alliance in the season right now and Sharonda is looking best. 

2 - Kristin: I was ready to drop Kristin, and she needed a strong episode and she got it. There was a little bit of hesitation from Carter, but I think this is a positive for her as it gives her something to overcome. I actually think Kristin’s edit is more in line with new era patterns than Sharonda’s BUT Sharonda’s edit clearly has longevity and she is definitely being set up to go far in the game whereas with Kristin I can see her being one of the next few boots OR the winner (this is kind of how I saw Jenna last week too). 

3 - Jelly: She has such a weird edit and I know she is being set up as an important player (helicopter alliance as a whole). I still think her premiere episode wasn’t really all that good, and I think she had a really good shielding episode in episode 3. Even though I think her premiere was not the greatest, I think she has recovered really well and it is enough to have her #3.

4 - Linnea: I think she is probably the best and most realistic pick for an UTR winner. She has been consistent in the show and she had a decent premiere. I would want her relationships to be better fleshed out for me to have her higher than this though. So far she feels like a secondary character. In a post-Aubry world though I think so far her edit is fine. If her edit picks up around the merge and she remains this consistent she is somebody to keep an eye on. 

POTENTIAL CONTENDERS: 

5 - Ori: I really like Ori as a player, but I feel like his edit isn’t really reflecting how good of a game he is playing. He is still part of the helicopter alliance and that gives him a HUGE boost. However this episode we saw him fight for Alexis (but we had no setup for this bond before?) I feel if he was the winner we would’ve had some sort of Ori and Alexis setup just to prepare us for this episode. In any case, I think he has a consistent edit so far and it is not too in your face which I think bodes well for him. 

6 - Lewis: A good follow up episode for him as well, nothing too special but I think it is fine for now. I feel like his edit is missing something and I don’t know exactly what. Time will tell. 

7 - Maggie: My gut feeling wants to have Maggie in top contention. I feel like they are purposefully giving Maggie just enough GOOD content here and there and she has been consistent in the edit when she could easily have been ignored on an episode. However, if I am being practical, her premiere was really bad as she was one of the last players to be introduced and she didn’t have much substance in the premiere. Following that though we’ve had some personal content and we have seen her relationships and good reads in the game. If she gets a come out episode soon I could see her be a serious contender, but right now she is more of a gut pick rather than a rational one. 

8 - Alexis: I am shocked she is still here. I really got blindsided by the edit and up until the last vote I still thought she was going. Having said that I don’t think this episode looked all that great for Alexis. Yes, she was saved, but she didn’t look all that good saving herself here. In any case, she is consistent in the edit and I could still see an UTR win for her right now.

UNLIKELY, BUT POSSIBLE: 

9 - Devin: He is starting to rise despite him being super wrong about many things (like doubting Jenna’s job) and some people saying he is too much. Even this episode Jelly called him out for being a bad wingman. He could be getting a Tony Cagayan edit. So that small possibility and the fact that he is in the helicopter alliance is what is giving him SOME hope. I think if he won they could edit him a bit better and leave out some o the negativity while keeping some of the OTT character moments. 

10 - Carter: He looked good in sussing out Kristin and he was absolutely right in his assessment. It was a quieter episode for him but I think this is all he needed. If it wasn’t for his 0 confessional episode I would have Carter as a top contender, especially given the fact that he was compared to JT (a former winner). 

11 - Eric: They continue to dunk on him and give him negativity (even this episode with Kilby saying that he is too obvious). I think it is a bit too late for a turnaround.. he is giving me final tribal loser vibes and I think his edit has longevity. 

12 - Thien An: Her edit is still pretty bad given how good of a game she is playing. She is clearly being presented as a rational and smart player and very levelheaded. We are just not seeing much of her. Even last episode when she was the clear person who orchestrated Patt’s boot, her credit got a bit undermined by Lewis and Carter who ultimately were the swings. This episode we see Carter talk positively of her. Her edit screams no chance, but her really good gameplay is what’s giving her some hope. 

OUT OF CONTENTION: 

13 - Mike: I am ready to eliminate Mike. It was a fine episode, but I think for a male winner he would be a bigger personality by now. His premiere is still really strong in my opinion, but I just can’t help but feel that a male winner edit would look much better for him if he actually won. 

14 - Brady: Not a bad episode per se, but his overall edit is more of a big character than winner (for now).

15 - Kilby: He is having a resurgence, but it doesn’t undo how bad his first 2 episodes were. 

16 - Cristian: I am ready to call him Purple Cristian now. Genevieve by now had her infamous come out episode and even Sophie S in 49 had 4 confessionals through 4 episodes. He only has 2 and we know nothing about him or his game relationships. Nobody even mentions his name at camp and you barely see him in any camp scenes.

Top Contenders

1. Linnea. I felt that it was a bad episode for some of the others that I'd had around her level in the past. I liked a lot of her content here. She got levelheaded narration, she reminded us that her position in the tribe was good and she didn't want to have to cut them (right before a swap so she didn't have to), seemed to be liked by Kilby in the new tribe, and let Sharonda take on the more paranoid role with Eric which I think is a positive for Linnea. I also loved some of the cuts to her in the challenge while Jeff talked about teamwork and communication. Overall I just think she has the strongest edit consistently even if it's not the loudest.

2. Jelly. I liked this episode for her mostly. Great long term strategic content, pushed back on the showmance narrative for a strategy narrative. However, I didn't like that she was shown as the main driver of an Alexis boot (which I felt the show was telling us was correct by giving us entirely Jenna's POV) only to back out of it. That keeps her from #1 for me.

3. Sharonda. I didn't like that Sharonda was a negative voice about the prospect of a swap. Noticeably last season, Aubry was often shown as a positive voice about twists while other contestants who fell victim to them like Genevieve had negative confessionals about them, including the initial swap (which notably is not the twist that took Gen out).

Flawed Contenders

1. Maggie. I really liked the strong relationship scene between her and Thien An here. I like how much she gets to narrate, and I think she's consistently shown to have strong strategic instincts and reads. I still need a little more of a longterm storyline for her but I think she is someone the show wants us to remember. Feeling more losing finalist than winner but that may just be because that's where women of her archetype often end up,

2. Carter. I think that if we believe the show could give us a 0 confessional episode as a way to throw us off after seeing all of the discourse last season, it makes sense to keep Carter in contention. He has some of the most defined relationships in the cast, with the amazing scene with Thien An today, lots of content with Lewis and Brady last episode, and a lot of context with Kristin today. I liked the scene with Kristin and showing us that he won't forget being left out of the vote.

3. Lewis. Did not like how he got very little chance to explain the scenes of him sick on the boat. Just felt like completely unnecessary negativity. But he still has an overall strong edit so could recover from this after a big episode last week.

4. Thien An. Getting two very complex relationship scenes is a great sign for Thien An. If she hadn't had such an abysmal start I would have her in top contention (though I don't hate her opening confessional about being small around the big guys). I think the thing that keeps her in contention for me is that she fits the archetype of the kinds of winners the show has under-edited in the past. I worry about the Mike dynamic with her as she's talked a lot about him for two episodes.

5. Kristin. Kristin continues to get positive, consistent content, and has a story. She got everything you'd want about repositioning yourself here. I just still think her edit leads more towards big character with a big blindside more than it does to winner.

Longshots

1. Ori. Felt like such a side character here in the story of Jelly and Devin even if he did get his way.

2. Brady. More negativity and not enough of a bounce back from last episode, didn't get the chance to reconcile with anyone he'd been on the wrong side as or show us how he's improving his game.

3. Devin. Basically shown to look petty in the Jenna situation as she repeatedly tried to actually work with him, and even though he got his way I think he was made to look like he was making the wrong choice. The scene about the showmance was also just horrid for him.

Can't See It

1. Mike. Basically two straight episodes of being absolutely dunked on by the edit. His montage of telling every new person he wanted to be their #1 was reminiscent of Genevieve throwing Aubry under the bus to everyone who would listen in 50 and Aubry telling everyone the same thing in EoE. That kind of sequence is never good.

2. Kilby. Similar to Eric but got a bit more strategic content, I see him as a big character but not a winner.

3. Eric. Obviously has some storyline longevity now with Kilby but was basically immediately clocked for it by Sharonda. Still too overwhelmingly negative to win.

4. Alexis. She survived what seemed like a surefire swapfuck... and the show did nothing but dunk on her about how she did it for the whole episode. We were put on team Jenna for sure throughout that situation. She is easily in danger for next week's double boot.

5. Cristian. Most invis player of the season. Guessing he goes in next week's double boot or another double boot down the line.

Damn, another huge edgic name gone. If Jenna had survived this episode she would have been in my top 3 😭 The weakest episode of the season for sure, but the cast and an interesting vote keep this season’s very likable and entertaining; let’s just not go back to three tribes on 52. The swap is always important and I hope that this episode finally gives us some consistently strong contenders.

🐋Top Contenders🐋

1. Sharonda.

Sharonda and her perfect ass edit. It’s becoming a little bit in your face already; Sharonda gives her thoughts on everything that you could possibly want someone to give their thoughts on during a swap episode. Thoughts on pre-swap tribe! New dynamics of swap tribe! Makes sure that a potential swing is on her side! All the good things for Sharonda; she’s never made to look bad, all of her thoughts are presented as based in reality and then we instantly see confirmation confirming what she’s said to be true.

These seemingly ‘good’ edits have been ending in pre-merge tragedy, but Sharonda feels distinctly above the rest in just how squeaky clean her edit has been. She’s an absolute number one for me just on the surface, and it’s too early on in the season to be really confident in any dark horses, so I think she’ll be at the top for a while. Personal content would be great, her personality comes through a lot in her confessionals and she has some great face reaction shots to Eric being cringe, but I’m scared she might start leaning gamebot.

1. Jelly.

Jelly finally clicked with me this episode! All season I’ve had Jelly at arm’s length, her edit was always objectively one of the best so she was never super low on any of my lists but the vibes were always off. Episode four wiped away all of that! I thought Jelly’s game focus, post-tribal and pre-tribal scramble was really strong and positioned her as a main character of everything that involved her. Post-tribal she gets personable content about her relationship with Patt and gets to mourn her ally; and good game talk with her idol now being a complete secret and a badass confessional leading into the intro about being ready to go off! Oh, I was cheering. Pre-tribal, Jelly is shown as the head of her alliance and the main person making decisions; it really feels like Ori and Devin take major backseats to Jelly. She’s portrayed as rational and smart, really weighing her options.

The helicopter alliance continues to be a major factor in the game, and Jelly and Sharonda are the main people benefiting from it. Along with a fun character moment with Devin and a huge fat crush on Ori, even her character content is great and has places to go. My main negative was that Jelly said a couple episodes ago that she would need to distance herself from Devin and his chaos, and she has only grown closer to him. With how big of a character Devin is, I do think she could turn on him in a single episode and go full Genevieve and Kishan on him; but being a causality of Devin’s chaos could be another option.

1. Lewis.

Great follow-up and continuation for Lewis this episode! I think the episode clearly shows that Lewis and Carter made the right move flipping on the core five of Yellow, but only Lewis gets to acknowledge that at the beginning of the episode. He’s kinda gone for the rest of the episode, but I felt like the show showing Lewis being sick explained why his episode was so quiet.
Lewis gets back to the bottom after the swap, but I actually ain’t mad at that… Lewis’ whole storyline this season has been about being on the outs and having to ingratiate himself into dynamics, and him getting to just redo his storyline isn’t optimal, but it’s definitely something.
With how wild and suddenly pretty cocky he’s been this season I think that the edit never paints Lewis as a villain and keeps him as a fun and rootable figure.

🐋Contenders🐋

1. Kristin

This agricultural legend.
Super circumstantial episode, but a great episode nonetheless. Portrayed as resilient and strong and intelligent. The plant stuff is a great through-line for Kristin, keeps her memorable and it’s a genuinely endearing character quirk. Her new position isn’t ever shown as overly negative and more as an opportunity. Carter doesn’t really believe that she wants to work with him, but that scene felt a bit weird, and every other interaction Kristin has had a positive tone to it. Great personal content about her job too!
I think this episode went more than out of its way to make Kristin look likable and strong in an underdog position, but also gave her room to build on relationships and ultimately be a swing vote, even with Carter icing her out a bit.

1. Ori.

Didn’t love this episode, but Ori is clearly important to the season. He’s really reading to me as losing finalist, because he’s never been as important as any of his allies; but with how these big edits are falling, Ori being close to Devin, Sharonda, and Jelly could lead to him inheriting their edits at some point; the helicopter alliance is Ori’s biggest strength. Really likable dude, but I need him to drive a vote and not just be someone his more important ally is keeping in consideration. He does get his way this episode though.

🐋Ones to Watch Tier🐋

1. Linnea.

This high by default.
Linnea’s edit is very middle of the road, but she’s gotten something every episode and has established relationships. Not a lot of content she can call her own, but if they want to have an UTR kind of winner this season, Linnea has all the makings to be that person. Really liked her confessional about loving her original tribe, and the fact that she got a confessional pre-swap. Really good sign.

1. Brady.

This episode proves that even when he isn’t important Brady will get content, and that that content can be good. This was a solid episode, great reaction to his blindside and the new tribe and pivot from his over-the-top strategy of the pre-swap game. He wasn’t an OTT character this episode, but just a solid Survivor player that recognizes he’s on the outs and needs to pivot. I kinda love his reoccurring character moments of yelling at people during immunity challenges. Loved this episode for Brady, and with how strong new Yellow is, if he never goes to tribal this episode becomes even better in hindsight; showing that he knew he needed to do the work, but never have to show the results of it.

1. Maggie.

Okay, Maggie with the post-tribal content! Like always, Maggie gets her little pockets of screentime and slips away. Reflecting on the vote is great for Maggie, making her important to the dynamic and important enough to the game to have follow-up! I have no idea where she’s going, and honestly, I don’t know if I have faith in her to win; but her edit is consistent, and that’s enough to be this high up.

🐋You’re In Danger Tier🐋

1. Devin.

Unlike Brady, I don’t think the edit will ever just let Devin breathe. He’s always over the top, doing too much, getting negative SPV every episode! And for an episode where his main one-sided rival goes home, Jelly is the main narrator. Devin is clearly this huge crazy character, but not a winner. The helicopter alliance is the only reason he’s not completely cut from contention.

1. Mike.

Damn. Even as a Mike truther, this episode blows. Real double whammy set of episodes, first he’s called boring and not able to make allies and then we see it in action; and as someone who likes Mike, damn is he not engaging when he speaks to people. All of Mike’s bad social skills are on full display this episode, and Thein An and Maggie both fully dunk on him. Strategically bad episode too, he wants to be open to anything and anybody but nobody is open to him.
Maybe he can turn this around? Mike’s introduction was so good that I’m not going to drop him fully yet, but another really bad episode or set of nothing episodes and he’s gone.
He makes some good TikToks though!

1. Eric.

Visibility and consistency are the only things going for Eric; but the show still does not take him seriously.
Eric is too much of a cornball. The edit doesn’t try to make him look competent to offset that or show that he’s actually well liked (he isn’t) they just show him being a cornball. There isn’t anything wrong with that, but I just can’t see the edit making the winner look so… cringe.

🐋Carter Jail Tier🐋

1. Carter.

That 0 confessional episode is fucking him up 😭 Carter’s edit is so weird. He’s clearly important and has been set up as a character and player; he’s got established relationships and his position has always been clear, he gets constant content (besides that one episode). But then his edit gets weird with the 0 confessional episode and not getting nearly as much credit as Lewis for the Patt vote. Carter’s edit is very rootable and likable, we’re meant to take him seriously but his edit is just all over the place. I have no idea what to do with him, so he stays in jail this week.

🐋Yeah, It’s Over Tier🐋

1. Alexis.

Good on her for staying, but the edit made her look very intense and paranoid the entire scramble and tribal. Compared to her edit when she was ‘leading’ the vote with Sharonda and Linnea, it really puts into perspective that Sharonda and Linnea are what makes the edit positive, not Alexis.

1. Kilby.

Very villainous turn for Kilby this episode, and he’s clearly being established as someone who is going to get knocked off his high horse. The relationship with Eric is weird, I don’t really know how the audience is meant to react to it; I think they’re definitely meant for each other in their own special way 😵‍💫
I think Kilby’s maniacal mastermind gameplay is going to cause him to go home, maybe he throws Eric’s name out and Eric’s honesty and sincerity comes out on top of Kilby’s duplicitousness

1. Thein An.

Her mission: End Mike

1. Cristin.

After that confessional, it makes very clear sense why Cristin isn’t getting much content; he is extremely boring and surface level. Potentially twist screwed by that blood ring in NTOS… that should be fun.

for the first 3 episodes, (correct me if i’m wrong), Devin didn’t make a single true claim. every single thing he said was going to happen, did not happen. he’s been wrong every single time he’s opened his mouth

until this episode. he did his usual overconfident prediction, naming the chicken Jenna and brutally killing it with blood on his hands. thought this was a clear set up that Jenna must be safe - but she of course went home. he was finally right about something, and it was portrayed the same way all of his wrong comments were portrayed (overconfident)

at tribal, Jeff noted that this could be a turning point for the helicopter folks, and i think he was right. also last tribal, Devin said things would have to change for him if he’s on the wrong side of the votes again - and he was

NTOS shows Jelly wanting Devin out, but i think that’s taken out of context and she likely ultimately decides to continue with him

for the first time this season, i’m thinking Devin might actually go deep in this game

thoughts on Devin’s longevity and overall this theme of him being undermined by the edit then suddenly being strongly reinforced by the edit?

Hello I am mostly an edgic lurker, but I am interested to hear which past seasons of the show were the most difficult to edgic, had the most interesting/unique/distinct editing patterns, and/or had the consensus/expected winner change/fluctuate the most times throughout the course of the season?

Well that was shocking. I was less high on Jenna after her barely visible episode last week, but then I went back and rewatched the first two episodes and subsequently regained faith in her edit. Boy, was I wrong. I still don’t understand her getting the immediate word-in at the start of episode 2 and her confessional ending with “they let me survive, so I’m gonna survive” in terms of coherent and relevant storytelling, but hey, this season is definitely fun to analyze!

(1) Sharonda - Always visible and always giving her thoughts on big parts of the game even when we don’t really need to hear them. My biggest concern is that her edit is so squeaky clean thus far and that we’re getting duped. Maybe she’ll be a shock boot towards the end of the game, maybe she’s just a dominant winner, but either way I’m sticking with keeping Sharonda at #1 because she just has everything going for her edit-wise as well as game-wise. We also got to see more semblances of personality with her facial reactions this episode to the Eric/Kilby nonsense. I feel like they’re using Sharonda as the unspoken audience’s insert, which is always a good sign I feel. She’s also been totally shielded from the weird “cool kids vs. uncool kids” storyline and Dev’s cult, which is good but also totally out of the editors’ control of course.

(2) Jelly - The same top two that I had after last week’s episode, but I’d say that this was a pretty great episode for Jelly, despite her coming off of a sucky result with Patt being blindsided. What I will give Jelly’s edit over Sharonda’s is that she has a lot more personality being shown, but that isn’t really something you can look at too hard edgically, especially when Rachel wasn’t the most exciting character on 47 until the endgame. I do worry that Devin is somehow going to be her downfall and that she may ignore the warning signs she clearly has seen, but I’m really liking her odds even though she is apart of the “cool kids” clique.

(3) Carter - Fuck it, I’ve been convinced. As a result of this season seeming to say “fuck you” to Edgic so far, I could see a world where the Carter skunking was to try to throw us off the scent, because, overall, he’s actually had a pretty solid edit besides that. You could argue that they made him look pretty dopey in episode 2, but his story of bouncing back and recollecting power ever since has really perked my ears up. This is a total chance pick, but I think the fact that the general audience really enjoys him as well means the editors are doing a good job with portraying him in a palatable light. Sue me for this one, idc.

(4) Lewis - Definitely a quieter episode for Lewis (understandably so, since he was sick) but I think that the weight of episode 3 is carrying his chances, in my book, a lot. I will give credit though that he at least got to explain that he wasn’t feeling well to the audience and it didn’t come across as something totally negative, even with other tribe members commenting on it. A mild cooldown episode after an episode with so much exposure doesn’t hurt at all either, and being sick is a great time for that cooldown to happen, so I’m still keeping my eyes on Lewis.

(5) Linnea - She’s truly here by default because, well, there really isn’t anything about her edit to make me put her any lower. I remember watching the premiere and thinking she had a great opening confessional pretty early on, and we consistently hear from her each episode, though I feel like we still don’t really know who Linnea is. Imo, I just think she has a better overall edit than the people who come beneath her right now, so I’m leaving her at #4 until something tells me I need to drop her (or she gets randomly booted off, which, at this point, wouldn’t shock me.)

(6) Ori - I’m not super sold on Ori’s edit yet because I feel like since he’s an attractive, likable, and strategically sound male, Survivor would give him a much more overexposed edit if he truly was going to go on to win, but, hey, you never know. Maybe this is just how they’re editing an Ori win. No, but actually, I feel like his edit is pretty solid thus far. We have established relationships for him, he’s apart of the infamous helicopter alliance, and I feel like he’s gonna make it far anyways, so why not!

(7) Kristin - Agh. A fall from the heavens since my last ranking, but she’s pretty much in the middle for me. While she has some great content revolving around her Survivor application process journey, her knowledge of the island, and being really levelheaded and “calm in a crisis”, I feel like the editors totally gave Carter the upper hand on the recent episode when he clocked her strategy in his confessional. It kind of worries me that she might be in true danger if her tribe loses, but I still do like her edit besides that specific moment Wednesday.

(8) Maggie - I feel like a lot of people are starting to raise Maggie in their rankings, and while I do understand from some perspectives, I do have my reservations still. Though, we do hear from her every episode, even if just for one portion of it, and I think she’s had some pretty solid moments of being relatable and also a fun personality. I feel like we’re really being set up for a Maggie vs. Brady storyline too, so she has an established story with that as well. Her edit just hasn’t rung any of my “winnery” alarm bells yet, but they could be doing something totally different this season, so we’ll see with Maggie.

(9) Devin - Devin, Devin, Devin. I don’t really know what to make of his edit yet, considering the fact that I really did think Jenna was going to win the eventual war (that happened quite quickly) between her and Devin, which wasn’t the case at all. He has a ton of personality and we’ve seen the good and the bad of it, but him being seen as the “cult leader” just gives me total pause, especially from those who are being portrayed as the underdogs. Kind of seems like a mid season or even a final boss rather than a winner to me.

(10) Kilby - Leaning towards Kilby either being a F3 goat who doesn’t earn any respect by the jury or actually taking control in the game and being cut as the unexpected dragon at the end with a total growth storyline. Either way, I don’t really think he is winning this season, but hey, prove me wrong Kilby! If the season ends up being a revenge of the nerds and takedown of the cool kids storyline, you never know what could happen. It’s not lost on me how the editors are weirdly kind of giving him and Eric a “sympathetic weirdos” edit. But that could also just be my perspective on it.

(11) Eric - I feel like in every episode my perspective on Eric’s edit fluctuate so often. He’ll have great, strategically sound and totally-normal moments, especially in confessional, but then followed by him still carrying on this storyline of just being totally obnoxious. I honestly still think he’s going to be a F3 goat if he actually is as important to the season as the editors are making him out to be with the amount of visibility.

(12) Thien An - Well hello again Thien An! I am praying on everything holy that her and Carter actually do stick and make a deep run together, but she seems more like a supporting character than an eventual winner. Out of the 3 skunk victims, I don’t have as much faith in her edit as I do with Carter’s, but I also have much less faith in Cristian’s atrocious edit, so she falls in the middle of the 3. I also am not forgetting the “you’re in total control” subtitle over her and Carter together on the marooning boat. Thinking…

(13) Mike - Man idk with Mike. Each episode my hopes in his chances get weaker and weaker. This episode did not do him any favors at all and I really just, plainly, don’t think he’s going to win. He’s even more of a supporting character than Thien An, but he seems like a nice enough guy.

(14) Alexis - Cries. I put so much unnecessary faith and hope for growth in her edit last week, and this week was a complete dunk on her from the editors, EVEN THOUGH SHE SURVIVED. Sadly she’s fallen quite far and I don’t know what it would take to bring her back up. Would be a very strange way to edit an episode where your winner is in the hot seat and survives a crucial tribal council. Love her tho.

(15) Brady - Really, really don’t think he is going to win this season at all and I still don’t have much to say about him edit-wise, despite there being some moments where I think they do him justice and portray him positively. I just feel like they’d be editing him a lot differently if he did in fact win. Brady seems more like a complicated character (and lowkey hothead), though I actually do kind of find myself enjoying his strange antics.

(16) Cristian - Need I say more?

Hey everyone! I’ve been doing edgic for a few years, but this is my first time actually writing down my thoughts and posting them here (don’t ask why I’m starting at ep. 4. I don’t know either). English isn’t my first language (mine's a totally different one) and I kinda watch Survivor both for fun and to learn English, so please excuse any grammar mistakes.

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Tier 5: No Way (Too UTR/-ve)

16. Christian (UTR1)

Let's be real, "Purple Christian" has absolutely no chance in winning this game with this edit. Getting just 2 confessionals in four 90-minute episodes is insane. He could be male version of Genevieve or Yellow Sophie if he gets a huge episode next week or the week after, but you know, none of them won.

15. Kilby (CPM4)

His scene with Eric is cinematic. But in terms of the edit, he has been the OTT loud guy who's never right and has been a target for a while. I really don’t think the editors would give their winner this kind of negative edit. Plus, everyone else’s reactions make it pretty clear we’re not supposed to root for him (Sharonda’s expression this episode was iconic). So yeah, Kilby is not winning.

14. Mike (MORN3)

These two episodes have been a disaster for Mike. He went from getting a really good premiere to being constantly dunked by his tribe mates for being strategically and socially bad. Male winners also almost never get edits this tiny, so it seems like it's over for him.

13. Brady (MORN3)

He serves great TV, but he is just so intense. No matter during challenges or while questioning about last week's tribal council, he is always at a 10. I think he'll at least make mid-merge, but no winner has ever been this OTTM/OTTN heavy. If he is indeed our winner, the editors should've put way more focus on his "playing both sides" game or why he "generously" handed Maggie the advantage instead of all these OTT reactions.

12. Devin (OTTN3)

Genuine question: why is this mean so obsessed with voting out Jenna? Over 2/3 of his content has been about Jenna, but yet in this episode in which his target went home, the main focus was not on him. Instead, it's on everyone except him. Also, Jelly constantly questioning his actions and strategy plus that weird chicken scene make zero sense to be included in a winner's story.

Tier 4: Dark Horses (Growth Edit/Increased Visibility/Unexpected Winners?)

11. Alexis (MORN4)

She had a pretty bad episode this week. If she gets nothing great enough to save her in the next episode, she is toast. She became the target on New Savu and could easily go home next episode, so things aren't looking great for her chances.

10. Eric (CPM4)

Eric is giving a growth edit vibe this season, like Emily (S45), Andy (S47) etc. A horrendous premiere, the target in ep.2, to suddenly get Kilby as ally after swapping (plus the content becomes more positive leaning). Though there's still a possibility of him getting the biggest underdog winner story in history. It still probably means he makes it very far, even to the final tribal council, but just falls short of winning.

9. Thien An (MOR2)

Honestly, her last two episodes are kinda great, and she is clearly a strategic force. She gives classic female UTR winner energy (imagine that both winners of 41 and 51 are very under-edited women), but she still needs a huge breakout episode or some consistent content to really stay in contention. So let's see how it goes.

Tier 3: Flawed (Circumstantial?/0 Conf.)

8. Lewis (MOR2)

Quiet episode for Lewis, and as others mentioned, it might have been because of his illness. But here's the thing, Lewis got two huge episodes (one for exile journey and one for making the move) and two pretty quiet ones (even when he joined Toku). So all that good content may still be circumstantial. If he had another quiet/bad episode next week, he would be crossed out.

7. Carter (MOR2)

Quiet but steady for Carter. After these two episodes, his edit is looking much more promising. The only thing dragging him down is that 0 confessional episode. No winner has had one of those for a pretty long time (though wouldn't be surprised in the open era). I'll wait one or two more episodes to see if Carter can still win.

Tier 2: Possible (Female UTR Winners)

6. Linnea (UTR2)

I was honestly shocked when I decided to rank her at 6th. Based on the preview, she is someone who I expected to be a major character, but she's actually an under-radar player. The main reason she's here is that her edit has fewer flaws, she isn't shown much, but we get steady confessionals from her every episode. I expect her visibility to increase at the merge (if she makes it) and it wouldn't surprise me if she ultimately wins.

5. Maggie (UTR2)

Probably my only surprising pick. Maggie has the kind of edit her archetype normally wouldn't get, and it is suspiciously consistent. We know her job, a bit of her backstory, and her edit is mostly positive. Even when she has no role in the story, we still get confessionals from her. She's giving UTR winner edit except for two flaws, 1) Her premiere was not that great 2) She voted for Patt with zero explanation after stating she didn't want to. I think the key to her chances is whether she can get some long-term storyline in the next few episodes (Jenna leaving?/Alliance with Thien An?/That preview scene?). If she is does, she's a serious contender for me.

Tier 1: Major Contenders (Helicopter Alliance + Kristin)

4. Kristin (MORM3)

Realistically, I've considered moving her down a tier, but I'll wait one more week before actually doing it. Kristin got a lot of strategy content this episode, and not all of it is good. Her really strong episode 1 and decent episode 2 still keep her in the game, but another bad episode would be the final straw for her.

3. Ori (MOR3)

Ori has the least screen time among the helicopter alliance, but it's all good. From the motivational speech in episode 1 to his confessional about voting incorrectly, he always got what he needed edgic-wise. He is in a pretty good position and this week's vote was the best for him. If he can get a standout moment soon, he could even rise to the top of my rankings.

2. Jelly (CP5)

This is a great episode for Jelly. I was doubtful about her chances last week as she got nothing despite her ally going home. But then, her confessional at the start of the episode makes up for it and shows that the editors are most likely just shielding her. She got tons of strategic content and an evolving arc with Ori. And she was constantly dumping Devin, but since we are not meant to root for him, that probably means we're meant to root for her instead. If Sharonda does not exist, she would definitely be number 1 in this list.

1. Sharonda (MOR2)

My top pick far ahead and it's not even close. She got a really consistent edit with great insights, and the editors always make sure we know how she feels. She's shown to be strategically strong and absolutely safe in her tribe. My only doubt is that is it too perfect? She's getting an edit like Kim in S24, which is unique in 50 seasons. With the constant mention of one world twist this season (maybe just me overthinking), could that be a hint that Sharonda wins? No matter what, unless something tragic happens, she'll stay high for me for at least a while. If she's not our winner, she'll probably be the final boss the winner has to beat to take the title.

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Again, first time poster here, so if my writing is a mess, go easy on me and please let me know. Hope you enjoy my take and can't wait to see all your thoughts!

Hello everyone!

Whew, what a rollercoaster. I thought Alexis was completely cooked.

Anyway, here's my EDGIC for this episode!

See you soon with the new SUTRAL!

Byeeeee

The swap is here! New beaches, new numbers, new dynamics and sadly one less chicken.

Cristian, Thien An and Mike are out of contention so far, and as always I only write about the five players I am most seriously considering. Honestly, this week was hard. The edit is doing a really good job this season of keeping almost everyone in play, and two of my five are people I had not even thought about cutting before.

Lewis is up first, and his episode bugged me more than I expected. Everything the edit has given him so far points in one direction. He volunteered to start alone, he told us he was there to play bold, he said he was used to uncertainty, and then he broke the five. That is a pretty consistent risk taker story. So why is he the one we see panicking about the swap? Of all people, the edit picks the uncertainty guy to be scared of uncertainty in a season literally built around it. Maybe it is just a human moment. But it is also the last thing we hear from him in this episode, so I have no idea where he stands on Dina. That is a big hole in a swap episode.

Linnea is next (I know, shocking!). Her premiere set her up as the social one, and her Ana flip in Episode 2 felt like the payoff to that. The problem is that nothing from that flip has carried over. No new alliance, no new target, no follow-up on what she built. This week her main takeaway is that Kilby is dangerous, which everyone on Dina also thinks, and Sharonda says it in a way that makes her look sharper. Two episodes without a story of her own is concerning.

Eric I have never seriously considered cutting. His visibility is huge and we get his reasoning almost every week, which matters a lot more to me than tone (same reason Kilby is not on this list despite all the negativity around him). His problem in the edit is the direction. Four episodes in, the edit keeps telling the same joke: Eric thinks it is going great, everyone around him rolls their eyes. Last week I wondered if that was turning around. For a winner story I need people starting to warm up to him and take him seriously (like they frame Kilby as smart and dangerous), or at least one moment where Eric sees his own flaws (like Brady does). Until then, the transparent, annoying player label is going nowhere.

Alexis had a rough one. Her Episode 2 is still the best thing she has done, catching the popcorn lie and getting Ana out. That was real agency. But her premiere gave us almost no personal content and no plan, and this week we get the opposite of that Episode 2 player. She is scared, scrambling and the edit makes sure we know she is the only person on her tribe who has no idea what is going on. Jelly calls her paranoid and Jenna takes a shot at her on the way out. She survives, but not because of anything she did.

Ori is the one I struggled with most. On paper he had a good week. He protects Alexis, gets Jenna out. But the edit does not really let him own that. The romance with Jelly is told through Jelly and Devin, and it is framed as something complicating Jelly’s game, not his. And then there is the line about being here for the money but not minding finding love too. Cute, sure. But I wonder why the edit wants us to question what he is playing for in this game.

So here is where I am landing. Lewis survives, mostly because there is a real chance he was sick and simply did not do many interviews after the swap. If he is still a ghost next week, that excuse is gone. Linnea survives on the strength of her first two episodes, but she needs a new thread soon. Eric survives because his volume and reasoning still carry him, though I am now actively waiting for that framing to change. Ori survives because the “wins the money and the girl” story is still possible, even if he is now the one I am lowest on in the helicopter alliance.

That leaves Alexis. Paranoid winners exist. Tony won twice while being convinced everyone was out to get him. But with Tony we always knew what he was going to do about it. With Alexis I mostly see fear, and the plan to get out of it was somebody else’s.

I am cutting Alexis.

Eliminated from contention: Cristian, Thien An, Mike, Alexis
Out of the game: Aaliyah, Ana, Rob, Patt, Jenna

12 players left in the race.

Hello, everyone! I've decided to truly put my Edgic thoughts into words for the first time this season. I've heard about Edgic for the first time during 41, really took an interest to it during 43 and have been really looking at the show through that lens since 44, but I have been watching the show since Samoa and knew that the edit plays a part in determining the winner. Just never knew there's a whole science behind it. I have very reactionary takes, I'm biased towards the players I like which sometimes clouds my judgement and the thing I let guide me the most is vibes. I was adamantly anti Aubry last season, but my claim to fame is clocking Dee as the winner after the premiere of 45 and riding that train the whole season.

I have never been a part of Edgic during a two tribe season which I believe will make it a bit difficult for me since there are so many more potential relationships to explore. Different from the New Era where there were 3 duos in every tribe with 2 duos in each tribe forming a core 4.

Anyways, I'll try to make a post every week, briefly assessing the boot and ranking the remaining players based on what I think their odds at the win are. I'll try to stay away from other people's Edgics so as to not get influenced or worse, so keep in mind that that'll result in plenty of mistakes and horrible takes.

This episode was the weakest one so far, but still a pretty good one. I liked the Cagayan challenge and I thought there were some pretty fun soundbites there. The one I put in the title and Carter's "I like you, but I'm not a pig." Another woman getting booted, but in general, I feel much better about a woman winning this season than a man. Could be a SJDS situation.

Jenna was pretty swap screwed, really unlucky to end up with the two people that voted for her at the first tribal and their secret ally on the only tribe that had 5 people. The stars really aligned for her to get the boot, although I do think it was the wrong move gameplay wise and fully expected Alexis to go, but alas. I liked Jenna and her premiere edit confuses me a bit now. I already saw her going up in my rankings because she has a very Sandra style of play. She saw the writing on the wall that there's no flipping Ori and just went and threw Alexis under the bus as hard as she could. Devin was just way too tunnel visioned on her.

TOP CONTENDERS:

1. Sharonda (-) - Quieter episode for her, but got to narrate the preswap portion, outright stated that she's at the center of preswap Savu and seems to be fine at her new tribe. No one mentioned her and it seems that her connections really are good enough for her to be comfortable despite being the lone Helicopter member on Dina. I will say, her edit being really squeaky clean is a bit worrisome and I know that the editors in the New Era liked to at least manufacture some doubt even if there wasn't any. But we're not in the New Era, we're in the Open Era and with so much One World teasing this season, maybe Sharonda's the second coming of Kim Spradlin who just steamrolls to the end. What also keeps her here for me is that Sharonda's personality doesn't really pop all that much on the screen for me. I have a feeling that even if she was a big endgame player, but didn't win, she wouldn't be getting as much content.

2. Jelly (-) - These two are far and away at the top of the pack for me. Great post tribal content, saying she felt bad for Patt, vowing for revenge, finding a silver lining in having a secret idol. Just the stuff I wanted to see for her after the last episode ended. Got an extremely lucky swap, quite literally couldn't go any better for her. Not much else to say, she had yet another great episode, I really think that if it was up to her, Alexis would've gone, but it's very fine because the Helicopters are amassing a ton of power right now and I don't see anyone picking up on it any time soon.

3. Ori (+1) - Didn't think it after the premiere, but I'm fully expecting a Helicopter to win so far. He didn't have any real standout moments this episode, but I feel like, despite the matchmaking scene, he hid his allegiance to Devin and Jelly pretty under wraps. Alexis seemed to genuinely not be aware of it considering she came to Ori trying to target them. What's also good is he didn't panic, try to throw her under the bus right away, but just steered to vote to Jenna. Kept another Savu, fully strengthened his Helicopter bonds and is in a great position going forward considering they have another easy vote should they lose the next challenge.

4. Carter (-1) - The swap shook out pretty well for him, he was shown to be savvy staying sceptical about Kristin and formed a huge connection with Thien An. Carter himself said he's not that bright, but I feel like that's obviously untrue. He reads people and the relationships well, he's aware of his potential weaknesses and he found a trustworthy person with some power who complements him pretty well. We've already heard the J.T. comparisons. Thien An might just be his Stephen.

KEEPING AN EYE ON:

5. Linnea (-) - Here mostly by the virtue of everyone else having somewhat suckier edits. Not much happened for her, in a majority in her new tribe. There could be some trouble with Eric, but I'm not too worried that Eric, Kilby and Lewis are going to pull anything crazy together. I can see Kilby and Lewis turning on each other just to get by.

6. Kristin (-) - She's very present yet again. What I keep noticing with Kristin is we see a bunch of her camp life scenes. Those that aren't followed by confessionals, no game talk or anything, but we're constantly being reminded she's there. A few episodes ago when she said her partner does improv, this episode when she said she knew what Toka means, these are very little moments that have no real importance to the greater narrative, but they're there. There are some hiccups with her edit, but she has proven to be useful to her new tribe, got a ton of PSPV. The Carter interaction was a bit of a red flag, but she wasn't made out to look as a fool nearly as much as Mike was for example. I like Kristin's odds, I could see her getting there.

7. Maggie (+1) - Ever since the premiere, I felt something about Maggie and she's just steadily going up episode after episode. Didn't let herself get steamrolled by Brady in the post tribal portion. Is in the clear majority with an extra vote that holds even more power now. She's also always there, something in my gut tells me to feel good about Maggie.

8. Thien An (+7) - Hello, Thien An! What a great episode for this woman. Seems to be the head of the majority at nuToka, established an extremely important relationship with Carter and seems to be Maggie's number one too. She dgaf about Brady, she mocked Mike's obvious attempts at ass kissing, she was just great. I have a hard time believing she's winning, possibly a harder time than a few people under her in this ranking because the first three episodes really weren't all that good, but we're in the Open Era and we don't know how they edit their winners because of all the Permanent Uncertainty.

9. Lewis (-2) - Really meh episode. Didn't honestly get that much heat for sleeping in the boat instead of working on the shelter. Eric did say that due to being the minority, being sick and not being Kilby, he'd be the first to go if they lost, but I'm not so sure. Would love to see him mingle more, maybe get some relationships established, but he was sick so I can look past that. Also, maybe none of the people on Dina have much to do with his game going forward so that's why nothing's being established and that'd also be fair, IMO.

I DON'T KNOW WHAT TO THINK:

10. Alexis (+4) - She's insane, I love her lol. Trying to keep Jenna's shoes as collateral was all time. She's not winning, she's oblivious to the fact that Ori's super tight with Jelly and Devin, but I do feel like she does have a knack for the game so I feel a need to put her here. I just wish she wouldn't get so intense during pre tribal scrambles. Sis needs to get it together and calm down a bit. Hoping for her she can survive until the merge because she's toast if they see another tribal.

11. Brady (-2) - I'm super hot and cold on Brady. He's so intense and it was funny how he tried to strongarm Maggie, saying he didn't care she didn't want to talk and she just walked away. He's out of his element. He thinks he's a much better player than he is. That's not to necessarily say he's bad, but he's not great. I did catch that sneaky unwillingness to admit he voted for Kilby, kudos to him for keeping a door open.

12. Eric (-2) - He's really annoying lol. I'm glad he gets to be himself and that he's enjoying himself out there, as well as the fact that he found his kindred spirit. But to quote Courtney Yates, he's on a crusade to be the most annoying person in camp. The constant songs are way too much and he's honestly lucky they need him as a number. When Kilby says you're being too much and too obvious, you need to take a moment and reevaluate. He didn't say it to him and if he did, I feel like he really would've taken it to heart and been devastated. Not all that good.

THERE'S NO WAY:

13. Devin (-) - I'm fully never moving Devin out of this tier. He got a godlike swap and finally got Jenna out, but I'm sure that this type of tunnel vision gameplay will come back to bite him sooner or later. He's in an undeniably good position and will be for pretty much the entire game, but he's been called a bully and condescending. He'd have to perform miracles to ever be a contender for a jury vote and even then, it wouldn't be a sure thing.

14. Kilby (-2) - Throwing half of your original tribemates under the bus in front of Jeff and the entire cast is never a good move, lol. Those doors really didn't have much of a chance to open up, but she sure damn made it publicly sure that they stayed shut. Great move establishing a relationship with Erik, but how much power can that alliance genuinely have? He plays just like a Redditor would.

15. Mike (-4) - Boy, oh, boy, what a fall from grace since the premiere. Got absolutely dunked on. Everyone sees through him, he still has no relationships that have been talked about and seems to be the easy vote if nuToka loses. Just super bad.

16. Cristian (-) - What even is there to say, he either quits or gets royally screwed at some point. Jeff always asks him questions at the challenges and now at the swap, there seems to be a personality there that production liked to rely on during filming so I'm incredibly curious to see how his story ends because this is too funny at this point.

I want to believe

After three phenomenal episodes, it’s hard not to be disappointed to see Survivor go back to its ‘just alright’ era. I’ve seen a lot of negativity about the return of three tribes this episode, and I agree that the shuffle has taken a lot of the momentum of the season away and as usual screwed over a handful of players – but I also think that’s kind of the nature of tribe swaps. Of course, why they didn’t opt to swap into two different tribes is beyond me, and it didn’t help that the most boring tribe configuration with the least players also ended up going to tribal. The silver lining is that I think that both of the other two tribes would have a much more interesting vote than the one we saw tonight. I am praying the next challenge is purely physical and that Ori pulls the tribe through, as I’m rooting so hard for Alexis to escape her certain doom, and for another more entertaining episode to be on our screens.

We lose Jenna tonight, and I wasn’t at all surprised to see her go pre-merge here. Her premiere was her only good episode in my mind, and her UTR dip after this despite again getting one over on Devin, plus her being missing from all Previously On Survivors until this point made me pretty confident that she would be going out as a continuation of her premiere story.

I felt the episode validated a lot of my feelings on the more likely winner contenders, but there has been a decent amount of movement on the bottom half of my rankings.

So, without further ado, who are my Top Contenders? …

1. Sharonda. (-) Look, there’s two possibilities here. Either Sharonda is the winner, or Sharonda is the player we are meant to view as the one to beat. Her edit kind of reminds me of Savannah’s in terms of her visibility and that they are not afraid to show her having negative opinions of her fellow players. Her relationships with the Helicopter Alliance are established, and she has also been linked to Linnea, Alexis and Eric. She is in the centre of all the dynamics and has her fingers in a lot of pies and is being portrayed as such. I have two red flags for Sharonda, which may seem a lot, but most people have five or six at this point. Firstly, again, lack of personal content/personal scenes. Secondly, I don’t think any of her alliances beyond Ori and maybe Devin have been really fleshed out in terms of how people feel about her.
2. Jelly. (-) A pretty good episode for Jelly this week. She obviously, finally, got her way in a vote, but was also shown to be much more wary and flexible in the Jenna vs Alexis debate compared to Devin’s tunnel vision. I also think she had a strong post-tribal confessional talking about wishing she would have saved Patt. I think this is significant as it is a story thread that is only relevant to her. If getting revenge for Patt becomes a recurring motif then the strengths of Patt’s edit in terms of making her a likeable character can also kind of be attributed to Jelly. Considering how the game has gone so far for her, I’m leaning towards Jelly being our high visibility losing finalist (see Sophi Balerdi, Sam Phalen etc.) but its so early in the game that things could easily turn around for her post-merge.
3. Linnea. (-) Another pretty much solely narrational episode from Linnea, but yet again she escapes going to tribal. I’m kind of getting Kaoh Rong Michele vibes from her here, not as blatant in terms of being personal and talking about cheeseburgers, but in that we check in with her every episode and find out her feelings at any given point in the game. It feels like she’s important, but we don’t know why just yet. She could be a winner, a losing finalist, or maybe being set up for one of the season’s major moments.

Who else is a Contender? …

• Maggie. (-) I’m sorry. Again, I know this is high, but I just love her. The way she shut Brady down after tribal was probably not the best gameplay but absolutely hysterical. HOWEVER, I do have one major positive to highlight for Maggie here, and that is her subtitled confessional where she said she had been applying for twenty years and she wasn’t going to let a big dumb guy run her game. Maggie’s content has all been really solid in my opinion, just maybe a little quiet thus far. But a 2/2/2/2 confessional count isn’t too shabby a foundation for a post-merge rise to the top.
• Lewis. (+1) I thought Lewis’ episode was just ok this week, but his first three combined were a strong introduction, and it’s not every day that the editors allow a contestant to explain their lack of presence in an episode like they did with Lewis’ illness this week. Also, it feels like him having a target due to being ill might be a bit of forced adversity or misdirection to hide someone else being booted if they go to tribal next week.
• Ori. (+1) A pretty good episode for Ori that fleshed out his relationships with the helicopter alliance and had him stand his ground to keep Alexis in the game over Jenna. Now I’m thinking about it, it feels like Ori’s relationships with Devin and Jelly are fleshed out better than Sharonda’s are, so maybe I’m underestimating Ori a little, but I’ve still seen nothing in his edit that makes me think he’s a genuine strategic contender to win the game.
• Kristin. (-2) Kristin falls this week because I feel like her edit is kind of weird. She gets a lot of circumstantial content – negotiation/injury/injury/tribe swap, and they keep hammering home the fact that she’s a crisis consultant in a way that they rarely harp on about with other people’s professions. I think her nature survival content is all pretty good, and she gets a decent serving of positive SPV every now and again, but it all just feels a bit lacking and a bit off. Are they setting up Kristin to be thrown into a crisis that she can’t quite navigate?

Who is an Unlikely Contender? …

• Brady. (+3) I have no idea what they are doing with Brady’s edit, but I thought his opening confessionals were pretty good this week. However, he still has had a lot of negativity and they are still highlighting him shouting at people in challenges. He has clearly rubbed a lot of people the wrong way and I would struggle to see him winning a jury vote.
• Devin. (-) I feel like the show is constantly amplifying bad vibes from Devin. He says everything with a smile on his face and has a very positive attitude, but all his confessionals come off as so smarmy or cocky or just delusional. He has a strong confessional count and presence on the season so far and maybe he could turn things around in game, but I think the man who the edit is presenting to me is not very aware of the issues in his game to be able to fix them in the first place. This combined with his number one ally continuously giving him negative SPV leaves me feeling like a Devin win is technically possible but also really not going to happen.
• Carter. (-2) Carter drops more as a re-evaluation of his ranking last week than anything that happened this episode, but I will say that he showed clear red flags of tunnel vision throughout this episode when it came to his feelings about Kristin. I also thought the scene where he established an alliance with Thien An while good on paper came off as a bit awkward. Also, both of them have had a zero confessional episode. I like Carter, I think Carter can win, but I also think Carter needs a strategist in the driver’s seat to win over at the end on sheer likability alone.
• Eric (+3) Eric moving up is more of a result of other people moving down than it is anything positive for him. But I will say he is a consistent presence with some moments of complexity, and he has a few relationships outlined. However, his edit has been so negative, and I think this Kilby relationship will probably end up being his main story until it results in one or both of them going home. If he betrays Sharonda, his head’s on the chopping block, and if he sticks with her … well, she’ll cut him sooner or later … or maybe drag him to the end?
• Thien An (+1) I don’t know why I’ve moved Thien An up a tier and why I’m ignoring zero confessional episode counts here, but I guess it’s a newer new era and anything goes. I actually don’t feel like Thien An’s edit is that bad. Her premiere is about being underestimated, she later leads a vote against her tribe’s big dogs and ends up being a desirable ally come the swap. My concerns are that multiple people have highlighted wanting to target her, that her day one alliance was not highlighted until this episode, and a lot of her content is devoted to dunking on Mike. Now Katurah reached the finale on much less, but I think Thien An is a very unlikely winner with this start to a season. I’m not even sure she’ll come out on top over Mike.

Who is Borderline Eliminated? …

• Alexis. (-1) If she goes out next week it will suck because I think she has so much more to give (see wanting to take Jenna’s shoes as an insurance policy) but it will also make sense as to why they have given her a decent but not too special apology edit. If she survives next week I think we could see her become a big post-merge threat to be booted, but due to her lack of premiere introduction and lacklustre content since I think there’s like less than a 0.5% chance that Alexis wins the season based on the edit.
• Kilby. (+1) A solid episode for Kilby, but his entire edit up until this point has been dunking on him and showing him confidently state things that are completely incorrect. His war with Devin is also incredibly one sided. Last week all of Devin’s statements about Kilby were well evidenced with footage, while this week we just had to take Kilby’s word for things. I think he’s still at risk of being booted if that tribe go to tribal even though he’s made a little bit of progress.
• Mike. (-5) There’s trashing someone for bad gameplay, trashing someone for being mean, and then there’s trashing someone for being a little bit bland. Mike’s whole story is about being inauthentic in conversation and struggling to build allies outside of a failing alliance, and even if, like Thien An predicted, he can jump aboard an alliance and hold on for dear life, that’s not something likely to result in a win for him. Also I’m starting to think that these more negatively edited players – Mike, Kilby, Eric etc. are the most likely victims of a coin flip because they want us to think that the player was not going to win anyway. Mike as the least visible of the three doubly feels like the likely victim.

Who is Eliminated? …

• Cristian. (-) He got a visibility spike! It may have been only one confessional, but he was there. It doesn’t make sense for him to go home on this tribe where he has Sharonda and Linnea, so I think Cristian might actually be our Sophie Segretti this season. We’ll see you at the merge, my friend.

The three tribe fatigue is real, but I still enjoyed the episode. On with the analysis.

True contenders 

(1) Sharonda

Loved her facial expressions every time Eric did anything remotely aggravating. We hear her thoughts in multiple instances where they weren’t necessary for the editors to keep in: she loves her Savu tribe, and more importantly, we hear her hesitations about Kilby. The NTOS lets us know that two tribes are going to tribal council — if Dina goes as a single tribe, I very well could see Sharonda, Linnea, and Cristian roping Lewis in to take out Kilby or even Eric. Her only flaw, as others have pointed out, is that her edit is almost too perfect and very gamebotty. As of now, I don’t think it’s enough to move her down from first place because there are some real dumpster fire edits this season.

(2) Ori

“If I get my way, Jenna goes home” or something to this degree. Ori’s speech at tribal council about the half court shot kind of negates my theory from last week (he’s the steady voice in a chaotic season and that’s his path to win), but the edit backed him up hard this episode. I see the vision for an Ori win if he’s the last helicopter alliance member standing or at least not up against Sharonda in a final tribal council.

(3) Linnea

I was nervous for her in this upcoming swap, a little less so now that she lucked into a very nice majority of four on Dina. If this is a Game Changers situation where two tribes attend tribal council as one next episode, I still see a world where she’s in danger, but if she’s going just as Dina, I think she’s in an ok spot barring any sort of advantage play. If she survives this swap to the merge, the commentary from Carter last episode about her and Sharonda being the heads of the alliance could very well be a setup for her winning game. Linnea and Sharonda got very similar edits this episode, but Linnea has no established relationships or alliances outside of being Savu strong while Sharonda and Ori have the helicopter alliance, hence her being in third. Honestly, I don’t think her edit is all that amazing, but she’s one of few people without super glaring flaws.

(4) Lewis

His quietest episode yet, but he was super sick and the editors made sure to show it. He gets a pass from me and stays in fourth.

On the bubble

(5) Carter

A very good episode for JT 2.0. He clocks Kristin’s game, he gets some personalization via pig commentary while he’s at it. He makes an alliance with Thien An that sticks, the positive that juxtaposes just how badly Mike’s social game is going. My one gripe is his very visible 0 confessional episode 2. I almost moved him up further because, after all, this is the era of permanent uncertainty. When better to have a winner with a 0 confessional episode? I was a little low on him last week, but I’m beginning to see the bones of a Carter win, and while he’s had some negative content, it’s more forgivable than I first assessed given that the editors had to show how Maggie got the extra vote and that involved the bag search and the Toka trickery.

(6) Jelly

Tough episode for Jelly, especially since she narrates how Alexis leaving is the best choice for her game. Twice. “Alexis is the logical decision to go home” and “I’m petty, Alexis has got to go …” And then Alexis doesn’t go home, with some bad foreshadowing about how she might be a problem for Jelly in the future by Jelly’s own words. If Savu loses immunity again and goes to tribal, this Alexis issue might disappear quickly, but as Sandra famously once said, I don’t know about that. Jelly’s content is extremely losing finalist coded.

Kristin

(7) Kristin

Finally, some strategic AND personal content. Very good content, aside from Carter’s astute read on her gameplan. There’s a subtle theme of overconfidence with Kristin, first with the negotiation and then thinking she can rope Carter back in. She’s doing a good job, but not as good as she thinks. Also, I spotted a new clue in the intro — Kristin hits the ground with an axe instead of hitting a coconut. She misses the mark. Even so, Brady is right, she IS a total stud.

Everyone else

(8) Alexis

I was so sure she was going home. With Jenna’s survival storyline and the clue in the intro with the spider, I really thought she was cooked until the moment the third Jenna vote popped up. That she survived makes me very excited for her and I hope she sticks around. Back to the spider in the intro, I commented on a post last week noting that spiders typically indicate dangerous or strategic women in Survivor (most notably, the Black Widow Brigade), and this was proven right. This episode, she was described as “schemey,” “smart,” and “dangerous.” Even so, her premiere edit was lackluster and her intro is negative, so I can’t move her any further up as of now. Also, I don’t know if she stands a chance if she attends another Savu-only tribal council.

(9) Maggie

I really, really like Maggie and she’s getting some good content, but it’s never quite enough for me to really buy into her story as the winner. If she was, we wouldn’t be hearing about her and Thien An’s relationship just now, we would have heard more of her input on the Patt vote, and I think we’d have more in depth content from her in general. Loved that this episode was basically her dunking on Brady and Mike, though. Made me giggle.

(10) Brady

He’s eating his humble pie, as he should, but he seems to be out of direct danger as Thien An and Carter have their sights set on Mike and Kristin, respectively. I don’t think the edit would have dunked on him quite as hard last episode if he were to win. He was also definitely riding the middle on Toka 1.0 more than we’ve seen in the episodes, and I think this strategic storyline would be more fleshed out if he were the winner.

(11) Devin

He’s starting to give Jelly the ick with his approach to matchmaking. He gets rid of Jenna, who he created a rivalry with for no reason and out of thin air in the premiere. He even says that the simplest option is sometimes the best and then goes on to not vote out the simple option in Alexis. I really don’t see him winning and I’m almost wondering if his inclusion in the helicopter alliance spells doom for all of them. But maybe that’s jumping the gun.

(12) Kilby

Has a new bromance, but it may come at the cost of an early exit. Maybe it’s just me, but I felt Kilby was a little less excited than he let on about the Eric situation. He does accurately clock that it’s a very visible alliance, but I’m not sure he’ll be able to turn the tide if Dina goes to tribal council. He’s also at the top of my list of contenders to get voted out if next episode is a single tribal council with two tribes attending.

(13) Mike

Oh, Mike. I defended the negativity he got last episode, but the edit doubling down is really bad. The editors directly show him being too robotic rather than through Thien An’s confessionals. And he’s getting such minimal content. Now, his comment about Carter last episode is making more sense — Carter is playing the social game MIke wants to play.

(14) Thien An

Another great episode for Thien An. It still cannot make up for her two first episodes. Still, I moved her above Eric. Yay for Thien An.

(15) Eric

Man do the editors love to dunk on him. When was the last time they’ve made the underdog this unlikeable? The loud singing while a very ill Lewis tries to sleep had me howling. The bromance with the shot of him grabbing Kilby’s shoulder gave me a visceral ick. He remains pretty unaware of how he’s perceived by his own alliance. I can’t decide if I want him in the final three or gone next episode.

(16) Cristian

He speaks! And it’s strategy. Basic strategy, but strategy nonetheless. He seems like he’s Savu strong, but if Kilby were to successfully flip someone else to hold a majority, it would have to be him, right? Kilby + Eric + Lewis + Cristian would be the voting block? Idk, seems unlikely.

(17) Jenna

Like I wrote earlier, I’m shocked she’s gone so soon. The editors peppered in so many clues to her longevity, which made this result all the more surprising (and important? It’s making me think Alexis has a big, big role to play later in the season). Given what we know about the helicopter alliance, she was kind of boxed into a corner strategically. I think her best bet was to try and stay Toka strong, but it didn’t pan out. Sad to see her leave.