Analysis What could happen to home prices if the foreign buyers ban expires?
https://globalnews.ca/news/12100516/foreign-homebuyers-ban-expiration/101
u/Crazy-Gas3763 19h ago
Why allow nonresidents to own homes in the first place? Aren’t properties for living?
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u/SWHAF Nova Scotia 17h ago
At one point they were for living, over the last 30-40 years they have been used to prop up a slowly dieing economy. It's a government endorsed ponzi scheme. And every time the market break's (up or down) the wealthy swoop in and buy up more properties to drain more of the wealth out of the working class.
Why have people buy a house and only pay for 25 years when you can force them to pay the same amount monthly for the rest of their lives.
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u/mykittenfarts 19h ago
Banff does not allow ownership if you do not reside in Banff.
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u/BeyondAddiction 16h ago
You can't really own land in Banff anyway.
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u/mykittenfarts 8h ago
It’s leasehold ownership.
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u/gtr06 8h ago
Is there any other country that has this system?
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u/mykittenfarts 8h ago
Denmark, Austria, Switzerland, Thailand, Philippines for starters.
Other countries, such as in the Caribbean, allow land ownership to the path to citizenship in that country.
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u/BeyondAddiction 5h ago
That's correct. It's true in all national parks. You lease the land from the crown for a period of 99 years. You only own the structure.
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u/esaul17 18h ago
It can be a relatively stable place to park and grow money. Through appreciation or potentially short or long term rentals.
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u/Crazy-Gas3763 18h ago
Sounds good for the foreign buyer. What’s the benefit for the residents?
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u/squirrel9000 Manitoba 18h ago
It increases rental supply and allows people that wouldn't otherwise afford to live there to do so?
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u/Fearless_Tomato_9437 14h ago
it helps counteract the capital outflow the LPC has been encouraging for 11 years.
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u/vancity31240 18h ago
Then why allow rentals at all? Shouldn't everyone buy their own home no matter how short their stay is?
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u/MrJingles447 19h ago
This will be a benchmark moment for Carney.
if he lifts the ban, that's a middle finger to the younger generation that'll be a nail in the coffin of never being able to own a home - no matter what bs comes out of his mouth for doing it.
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u/Academic-Flight-783 19h ago
Why would he care about the younger generation? He gets a substantial portion of their vote share for essentially nothing. He is doing excellent with older voters who are the ones who will ultimately keep the liberals in power and if they want their housing prices to go up they will get it.
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u/stop_banning_me_omg 18h ago
The young generation overwhelmingly voted for the Conservatives in the 2025 elections (49% vs 30% for the Liberals)
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u/frighteous 18h ago
Its nothing to do with liberals or conservatives lol it's rich property owners vs the rest of us.
Harper was pushing just as hard to protect property value as anyone else. Politicians just go with the money, both liberal and conservatives.
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u/Dr_Keyser_Soze 17h ago
Corporations are going to corporate. I’m voting NDP to see if it does anything. Voting liberals or conservatives will just be more of the same.
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u/Flaktrack Québec 12h ago
Right there with you. Grew up in a Conservative home but nothing good has come from successive Liberal / Conservative governments. It's time to give someone else a shot and the NDP has actually been showing up to rallies, strikes, union conventions... Worth a try imo.
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u/BeyondAddiction 16h ago
Harper hasn't been PM in 11 years! Jesus christ.
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u/frighteous 16h ago
Correct. But his policies to help the early stages of the crisis were ineffective and lead to increases in home valuations furthering the gap.
I'm not saying Harper is to blame for the housing crisis im saying both conservatives and liberals want house costs to rise because many of thejr donors and likely all their friends or colleagues own a multitude of property, or work in banks, and are part of the population who stand to gain the most.
If you think the housing crisis only started during COVID, or under Trudeau, im sorry but you're mistaken.
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u/TurbulentWinters 19h ago
Not to mention he’ll never live in Canada after he steps aside
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u/IcyCow5880 18h ago
What's he got to worry about? The last pm screwed us silly and rode out into the sunset with katy perry. Wonder who carney will choose
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u/nemodigital 19h ago
Brookfield is a major investor in Canadian real estate... So draw your own conclusions
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u/casualguitarist 16h ago
They're not a "major" players. Most of their assets are in the US and they're a non-player in the canadian residential or rental.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brookfield_Residential
Moving on let's do some basic comparison. if we compare similar sized cities and incomes where would you find cheaper housing on average US or Canada? Let's see the "developers bad" socialist larpers in here explain this one.
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u/biglinuxfan 19h ago edited 19h ago
But reddit tells me that he is perfect and can't possibly have selfish motives, only conservatives are corrupt and everyone on the left is good.
Huh, you mean.. it's not accurate? huh who'd have thought Carney is just as much of a self serving piece of shit as the rest.
edit:
Slow down on the downvotes you're making it too obvious you work for the POS.
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u/zefiax Ontario 19h ago
So basically you guys have made an imaginary scenario (that he doesn't extend the ban), then drew your own conclusions from said imaginary scenario, then you are on to blaming the left for the imaginary motivations of your imaginary scenario that hasn't actually happened. Lol.
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u/nemodigital 18h ago
He wasn't just a Brookfield employee, he was the vice chairman. I think a healthy dose of caution and skepticism is a good idea.
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u/biglinuxfan 19h ago
You assume I'm conservative because I criticize Carney?
Huh.
How odd. Looks like people are offended that I said he's not perfect, LOL.
Political tribalism is a cancer on this country.
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u/dontygrimm 18h ago
Welcome to reddit, and the general woke. If you have a different opinion your an evil conservative
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u/biglinuxfan 18h ago
Get ready to be downvoted lol.
Yeah I don't understand why we're not allowed to criticize carney. It's almost as if they want a dictator.
Ridiculous that people get so offended that their political views aren't perfect. lol.
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u/dontygrimm 18h ago
People have made therr politics there identity. And weather thry like it or not the liberals did a good job of making canada very divided. You dont havw to agree with my views nor I yours. Doesn't mean i hate you.
Sadly the vocal few make everyone think it'd a majority thet dont agree and hate you
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u/biglinuxfan 18h ago
The part that gets me is people wilfully ignoring bad policy or social issues because it comes from one side or the other.
I had one person tell me that there are no antisemites on the left, and absolutely insist despite several studies provided that show it's a growing issue.
My personal theory is they see it as less bad than a conservative government so it's best to back it.
Just my theory though.
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u/dontygrimm 18h ago
Not a bad theory, there are bad people onnthe left and right. Religious unreligious. Its sad man
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u/zefiax Ontario 19h ago
Bro update your script. I never called you a conservative. I just described the entire ridiculous comment chain.
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u/biglinuxfan 19h ago
"blaming the left" - how does one blame the left if they are on the left?
Sounds to me like you got caught with political tribalism.
Also, what is so ridiculous about saying Carney isn't perfect and is self serving like the rest?
what makes him immune to what every single PM in our history has done?
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u/zefiax Ontario 18h ago
Bro read your own comment and stop blaming others.
"only conservatives are corrupt and everyone on the left is good."
I just addressed your comment, didn't call you a conservative.
And nothing wrong with calling out Carney's actual actions. Ridiculous to rage about an imaginary made up scenario.
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u/biglinuxfan 18h ago
That is what I'm told, I've had several arguments with people to insist he's perfect.
Or wait.. will you deny that this happens now? Let's see.
He's a self serving piece of shit like the rest.
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u/zefiax Ontario 18h ago
Again, nothing wrong about criticizing him for his actual actions. Different to criticize him and then blame the left on a made up imaginary scenario.
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u/CriztianS Canada 19h ago
Once again, we need stop with the delusions. This isn't a Liberal or Conservative thing, they are almost certainly both going to be the same on this issue. It has been clear for many many years that the Liberal Party will not make bringing the price of homes down a priority, quite they opposite, they see the dropping prices and slowing housing market as a problem.
This is the same when it comes to grocery prices. There is ABSOLUTELY ZERO interest from any political party or central bank to have grocery prices return to pre-COVID levels. It would require a period of deflation, which NO central bank or government is pursuing as policy.
We have got to stop deluding ourselves.
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u/mykittenfarts 19h ago
The slowing of the market is due in large part to no one qualifying to buy even the most entry level of properties. The absolute lowest price in my small town for a single family 2 bedroom nasty old 1950’s bungalow in original condition is $500,000. The median income is $60,000.
Something has to give. The market doesn’t make sense. As an investor, if the market doesn’t make sense, don’t invest.
That’s my take.
I have no ideas how to fix it.
But prices, in my opinion, due to lack of affordability, are not sustainable.
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u/looperone 18h ago
The builders/developers should be building homes for the market (that means homes that people in the market can buy). Instead, they want to build homes that investors can buy to rent to those that can’t afford to buy. See, it’s a lot more profitable to buy $$$ homes than $$ homes so you can max out profits for the same land.
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u/mykittenfarts 17h ago
Yes, I get that businesses (developers) want to maximize profit.
Investors look for properties that they can rent at the market rate and make money doing so. They’re not seeking out ppl that can’t afford to buy. As an investor, I’m not nefarious. I’m looking for the investment math to make sense. At market value. If it doesn’t, it’s not a good investment. And right now, for me, as an investor, it doesn’t math out. It doesn’t make sense. So it failed.
Also, not everyone strives for home ownership. Investors take the risk and hope that those who can’t or prefer not to participate in home ownership, rent from them. Financial institutions with their qualification policies, in my opinion, are more to blame for excluding ppl from becoming homeowners than developers. As well as an outrageous resale market. My god.
And yes. It didn’t work. The developers and some investors completely misunderstood the market. The market rejected shitty, unliveable, stupidly designed condos and they got left with unsellable and untenable properties sitting empty. It was bad for everyone.
Building what the market actually wanted and needed instead of building for investors to invest, didn’t work. Now everyone is mad. And rightly so. Everyone involved in that needs to give their head a shake. We’re ppl. Not eggs you put in a tightly designed carton. They designed for sardines, not families. And the market rejected that nonsense.
So onward. The need is still the same. If we want population growth, give us a fucking reason to want to start a family. No jobs with living wages. No affordable housing. Unrealistic qualifiers to meet to enter home ownership via mortgage loans unless you’re a professional couple. Healthcare is in the toilet.
It’s a lot.
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u/VenserMTG 18h ago
The absolute lowest price in my small town for a single family 2 bedroom nasty old 1950’s bungalow in original condition is $500,000. The median income is $60,000.
Meanwhile you get much more house and land in Alberta cities because no one wants to move to Alberta. You're paying a premium to stay in your small city because it's more desirable than other cities.
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u/Nerevarine123 17h ago
Actually alberta has seen huge immigration from canada for almost a decade. Lots of people want to live in alberta, our housing is cheaper because we arent land constrained and build a fuckton out, on top of not being a popular destination for wealthy foreigners like toronto and vancouver are. For canadians, alberta has been the #1 choice for people who want to actually have a good life.
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u/VenserMTG 17h ago
You're flat out wrong. In the past 10 years Alberta may have grown its population by 1 million people, but half of that was immigrants from foreign countries, I'm one of them, a quarter was interprovincial migration, and the other quartwr is natural births.
And over the past decade most of the growth was experienced in 2022-2024 when immigration targets were increased by a lot.
Look up the quarterly population report for each province and you'll see for yourself.
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u/Nerevarine123 17h ago
Long-Term Trend: According to data analyzed by the Fraser Institute, Alberta has attracted a net total of 538,824 interprovincial migrants between 1995–96 and 2024–25, rebounding strongly after a six-year net outflow period from 2015 to 2021.
Yes we also get people from outside canada becauze we are an extremely desirable place to live with affordable housing, low taxes and high salaries.
Your post made it sound like alberta had cheap housing because people dont want to come here which is obviously wrong
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u/VenserMTG 17h ago
Buddy when most of your population growth is immigration, it means Alberta isn't desirable to Canadians. Immigrants come here, work and buy some of the cheapest housing in Canada, while Canadians cry about renting for life in Ontario and BC. People would rather rent for life in Toronto than move to Alberta, tatts how desirable to Canadians Alberta is.
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u/mykittenfarts 8h ago edited 8h ago
You’re right.
But then I would have to live in Alberta.
With that logic, why not just live in the Portage-La-Prarie, Manitoba? There’s a reason not everyone is moving there to buy a house.
It’s the cheapest place in Canada to buy a home with the average being 161k.
I could pay cash.
No.
Were ppl, not chickens that you kerplunk into a yard and give them feed and water and they’re happy. There are other factors and options aside from ‘move to Alberta’. I lived there. I was miserable.
I’ll stay home and work the problem.
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u/VenserMTG 8h ago
I'd rather be anywhere else right now, but I already bought the house.
I understand the sentiment
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u/mykittenfarts 8h ago
Oh damn. Yeah. I got sucked into that years ago. Moved for my job to Calgary. I despised Calgary.
I’m so sorry.
I wound up divorcing. I signed over EVERYTHING. Then I moved to Australia.
Best. Decision. Ever.
Hugs.
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u/MrFenrirulfr 19h ago
Regulatory and tax reform concerning housing has been a central part of the federal campaign, along side the provincial governments, primarily Ontario and BC. Multiple bills at multiple levels have been passed to directly reduce the cost of building residental units and increase the availability of land. We are actually doing the reforms that economists and experts have been screaming that we needed for decades now. Reforms that have been entirely ignored since the early 2000s. In many urban centers they have already reduced fees by tens of thousands, or in some cases hundreds of thousands of dollars on new builds.
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u/MrFenrirulfr 19h ago
The policy failed. It has no effect on lowering home prices while at the same time reduced capital for new building, leading to fewer homes and a continued rise in prices. Canada's housing crisis is an issue of supply constraints, restricting demand does not address the structural issues in housing. It is a best a bandaid on a wound that needs stitches.
Policy is judged by its outcome, not its intent. Just like how rent controls and inclusive zoning are intended to lower rents, they end up making rents higher in the long term. This is the whole point of "the road to hell is paved in good intentions".
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u/Crazy-Gas3763 19h ago
Then why lift it? If issue is supply constraint, why create more demand now?
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u/MrFenrirulfr 19h ago
Create what demand? The policy failed to reduce demand because the amount of actual foreign buyers buying investment properties was miniscule. We are actively making reforms to address supply constraints and reduce building costs. Immigration cuts already reduced demand and prices have been falling, but we need to maintain some forward momentum and capital to continue building new units at a reduced cost to keep another shortage from happening.
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u/Crazy-Gas3763 18h ago
So you are saying that policy failed to create demand. And you are saying lifting it now will create momentum and attract capital inflow?
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u/MrFenrirulfr 18h ago
Your first sentence is the exact opposite of what I said. Lifting it has little effect, but it is foolish to close off an avenue of potential capital when capital is needed. Structural reform in zoning and taxation will primarily drive renewed demand and capital investment.
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u/Crazy-Gas3763 18h ago
Agree that attracting inflow of capital is necessary. But I disagree that allowing foreign investors to buy up properties is the most appropriate source of capital. We should be attracting capital elsewhere and funneling returns on those investments into affordable housing for residents.
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u/squirrel9000 Manitoba 18h ago
"We should be attracting capital elsewhere and funneling returns on those investments into affordable housing for residents."
Where, exactly, is that elsewhere we should be finding capital and funneling it into housing?
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u/Crazy-Gas3763 16h ago
Economy -> wages + investment income -> domestic purchases
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u/squirrel9000 Manitoba 16h ago
So, like, REITS and other domestic RE investors? Because people complain about that every bit as loudly too, until they get distracted by the "f" word.
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u/Reasonable-Win-2068 16h ago
Attracting foreign investors is actually a good thing for the economy, and wages, and domestic investments....
Why do you think the US economy is so strong? all these AI companies are building data centres with foreign investory money from Canada and Europe etc...
We could and should build houses/apartments/condos with foreign investor money. More units on the market means a more affordable market for everyone.→ More replies (0)-2
u/esaul17 19h ago
Demand creates supply in a free market I think is the argument being made.
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u/Crazy-Gas3763 19h ago
Sometimes of the wrong kind, I.e. the shoebox investment properties in dt Toronto that nonresidents thought residents were going to live in.
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u/StrategicallyLazy007 19h ago
They did, and Airbnb was a thing. It worked for a city and now the tide has turned.
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u/MrJingles447 18h ago
Let the money laundering for foreign criminal organizations continue, it has no impact on home prices..smh
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u/MrFenrirulfr 18h ago
The money and deals in these cases were handled by people with Canadian citizenship. Its literally used as an example of why the foreign buyers ban failed.
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u/Toutatous 18h ago edited 17h ago
You don't know what prices would have done if there was no ban. It would certainly be higher than they are now.
I don't see how adding more buyers will help price decrease. Only someone who wants to see prices increase would say that.
And I own my house.
Edit: and if it didn't change anything, why change the ban, then? Better keep it that way, since doing nothing leads to the same result.
And even countries like Switzerland limit foreign access to their housing market. It's not an absurd thing to do.
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u/Worldgonecrazylately 17h ago
These ppl are investors. They put their money where it will give the best returns. Not rocket science. What needs to happen is tax them on profits on property. Capital Gains for non Canadians who own property here. They would flee like rats off a sinking ship.
I too am a homeowner. The price of my house isn't calculated into my "wealth", bc I need to live somewhere. It's my residence, nothing more.
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u/Parking_Chance_1905 17h ago
Not only that, but foreign buyers are typically super wealthy investors who will hold on to properties to inflate their value by artificially decreasing availability.
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u/MrFenrirulfr 18h ago
Yes we can know because we can literally follow the money. There are entire professions dedicated to exactly this.
If adding buyers couldn't reduce prices, then how come 2 of our fastest growing city's are also our most affordable? A pro growth regulatory body that allows supply to meet demands creates the most affordable markets.
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u/biglinuxfan 19h ago
Carney's policies are not about outcome.
Gun ban did nothing and he keeps it.
C-22 does nothing but harm Canadians, he keeps it.
Social media requiring ID, despite aus showing its an epic failure and Canadians private info exposed.. yep he still pushes it through.
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u/ChaosBerserker666 British Columbia 19h ago
Can you explain how inclusive zoning causes prices to go up? I was with you until I read that part.
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u/MrFenrirulfr 18h ago
The cost of building doesn't change between the low income apartments and the market rate ones. Being forced to rent a portion of units below market rate forces property owners to increase the price of the available market rate units to cover the losses. Some places allow owners to ignore the requirement by paying a fee, that can add tens and some times hundreds of thousands of dollars to the final construction cost of the build. Price controls are only needed in unhealthy markets, and ultimately make the market even unhealthier.
Here's a few links that help explain the situation better
https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/s/1EuMfBfVqo
https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/s/U9FqGReEYy
https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/s/iqXAoQx0i4
Long story short. Price controls distort market fundamentals and have always failed in the long term.
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u/ChaosBerserker666 British Columbia 17h ago
That makes sense and I think is correct. I had thought by inclusive zoning you had meant non-restrictive zoning.
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u/publicservantboi 18h ago
What are you talking about? Housing prices have gone down significantly.
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u/MrFenrirulfr 18h ago
As a result of immigration cuts and interest rate hikes. The foreign buyer ban played little to no part in that. In fact the regions it targeted the most, saw the smallest declines. Particularly BC
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u/Feruk_II 17h ago
That's totally false. When you adjust for inflation, housing prices are down ~25% since the peak in March 2022 (which isn't far from when this legislation came in).
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u/MrFenrirulfr 17h ago
Thats before the ban took effect and literally the month interest rate hikes started.
The policy was studied, the money followed, and the results came in. It failed to increase affordability.
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u/alt-account-0987 17h ago
You are saying they should be allowed to buy new builds and presale, agree.
But no reason to allow foreign capital to compete in the resale market against residents.
Good policy is in the details, not partisan ideology.
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u/fun-Benefit- 15h ago
I’d be worried that carneys choice will be swayed with his investments in real estate.
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u/cageslutjoanna 16h ago
He would not be lifting the ban, he would be choosing to not extend the ban. These are two very different things politically. One requires legislation, the other requires nothing.
Right now on a national level we are seeking investment of all kinds to bolster ourselves against an overtly hostile US. There is very little reason the Carney government - who is looking to market Canada as an island of stability - would turn down a source of both financial and human capital at a time when the world is approaching global conflict.
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u/Dismal-Economics-322 17h ago
If he doesn’t lift it, its a middle finger to the older generation too, as much as you kids want to buy houses for cheap, we want to sell ours for a high price, it’s competing interests unfortunately and we’re the higher tax paying demographic, sorry about your luck kiddo
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u/BeatsRocks 16h ago
How is it going to be a middle finger to older generations? The house prices are still elevated and much higher compared to price at which they would have bought. They are still going to be reaping huge profits.
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u/Dismal-Economics-322 16h ago
Yeah but they can be even higher if open to foreign investment, it’s purely greed but it’s a lot of people’s nest egg, you can’t blame them for wanting to maximize its value
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u/SkiyeBlueFox 17h ago
"Fuck you got mine"
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u/Dismal-Economics-322 17h ago
I saw this coming long ago and chose not to have kids so I wouldn’t screw them 😂
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u/sjbennett85 Ontario 16h ago
higher tax paying demographic
Great, then y'all should STFU about capital gains reforms if you are going to flex like that
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u/Dismal-Economics-322 16h ago
I’m pro taxes brotha I don’t mind that
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u/sjbennett85 Ontario 16h ago
Good good and I am too when they are allocated to fix a problem.
Collecting taxes of something housing related? Let’s put that tax revenue to work in building affordable housing that is detached from the private sector’s profit motives… and I do not mean bailing out out those Vancouver condos that developers are sitting on but rather buying them at real market rate, letting those developers flop so the market corrects and no longer runs on an assumed infinite growth trend
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u/jbroni93 15h ago
Imagine being so condescending about winning the lottery with home prices. Sorry you can only get a 500% increase instead of 700 without foreign buyers
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u/Dismal-Economics-322 15h ago
Dog eat dog out here brotha, woof
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u/jbroni93 15h ago
Either a troll or 0 compassion individual. I own a home btw
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u/Dismal-Economics-322 15h ago
Tbh it’s both, it’s really just an inconvenient truth and I used jazzy language to rile people up, I feel for young people but it is what it is I’m still gonna get my bread
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u/jbroni93 15h ago
Ah so instead of having children you seek attention elsewhere
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u/Streetlgnd 12h ago
At this comment I realized you are just a troll and most likely own nothing yourself. Lol. Sounds like a fun life.
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u/Willardwarrior1 12h ago
“We make more money and deserve to profit because of it, you poors can rent kiddo”
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u/faithOver 16h ago
Finally someone that understands it.
The demographic interests in this country are completely opposite.
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u/Dismal-Economics-322 16h ago
They really are, it sucks but you can’t blame people for looking out for themselves, if I was young I’d be pissed, but I’m older and own a house so it is what it is
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u/faithOver 13h ago edited 13h ago
Yah. Canada is not a country. Older I get more I realize that.
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u/Dismal-Economics-322 13h ago
That seems a bit too doomer, I think we can have different perspectives on an issue and still be a country my friend
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u/faithOver 13h ago
I disagree.
Different perspectives. Absolutely. I think that’s essential to a functioning country.
We have different interests on core needs. Thats not a country.
I say this as an old Millenial with a tiny mortgage on a house 15mins from the beach by bike.
If there was a button to half the value of my house tomorrow, I would press it.
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u/Streetlgnd 12h ago
Excuse me? Wanting to buy house for cheap? We would gladly settle for affordable. Doesnt have to be cheap at all.
Tf you talking about.
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u/thisoldhouseofm 15h ago
You can still sell it for a high price, just not as high as you like. Most boomers are still coming out way ahead on their houses even if property values drop 50%.
My Ontario house cost about $20k in the early 1980s. When I bought it, it was over $800,000.
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u/-whiskey-blue 15h ago
Because who needs money more than a 75 year old
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u/Dismal-Economics-322 15h ago
This guy in his late 30s would like more, can’t blame folks for putting their own interests first, no one’s going to do it for ya
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u/Tesco5799 19h ago
I used to underwrite mortgages when the foreign buyers ban was implemented, and it has done effectively nothing, so repealing it will also do nothing this is a complete non issue. All the ban ever did was make it so that foreign people with no connection to Canada whatsoever can't purchase property. This impacted a negligible amount of actual housing purchases and was always a feel good measure.
Now that the housing market has been falling in value consistently for a few years it's not the same attractive investment that it was when it basically had gone up for 30 years straight.
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u/Reasonable-Catch-598 19h ago
Are you saying the ban was implemented too late, and not comprehensively enough then?
I suspect it would have made a difference if implemented 5 to 10 years earlier
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u/Tesco5799 18h ago
No the way that it was written was purposeful to exclude the majority of actual foreign buyers. The most common scenario is people from overseas sending their kid to go to school in Canada, and buying a house. These kinds of sales were never impacted by the ban. If they did ban these kinds of sales it would have had a bigger impact, but it's still not a huge segment of the market.
In my humble opinion the biggest restrictions we could put on the housing market/ could have put in place would be making it more difficult for investors to buy many properties, and limiting the use of existing home equity for down payments on more houses.
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u/ptwonline 17h ago
Yes! People are trying to scapegoat foreign buyers for political reasons when in reality it's the multi-property-owning Canadians buying them up.
But regardless of who is buying the underlying problems are the same: not enough homes being built, not enough starter homes being built, too many people trying to find homes in the same overcrowded places. I really want the govt to start its own program of building the homes that we need and that private industry doesn't bother with, as well as work on programs that could help get people out of the biggest cities and willing to live elsewhere.
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u/Tesco5799 16h ago
Yeah agreed the government needs to be in the business of building homes and needs to start building up parts of the country that aren't the GTA, or GVA. We had such an opportunity with remote work to incentivize people to live in smaller communities, but both the government and most major corporations are too invested in things as they are. God forbid home prices in the GTA, or commercial real estate prices fall because they aren't as valuable as people thought they were at the peak.
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u/SaulGoodmanJD 17h ago
What about the buyer who purchase with 100% cash in hand? We’re in a duplex that we bought new and the other unit almost went to a foreigner “based in Toronto” for cash but they backed out.
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u/betterupsetter 17h ago
I coincidentally discovered yesterday that there are foreign buyer ban exemptions.
For instance, there is a prime 5 acre plot of land in Oak Bay in Victoria, BC, directly overlooking the water in one of the most desirable places in Western Canada, and asking is 52M. And because it doesn't have a home on it yet, it's foreign buyer ban exempt. They even advertise it as being a double title plot, having the potential to be rezoned in future to accododate multiple homes or units. Granted, it's been on the market for over a year, but that land couple be much better used to build higher density dwellings for locals instead of another McMansion or two.
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u/brodiee3 19h ago
Not sure foreign investors want to invest in Canadian home anymore
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u/MrFenrirulfr 19h ago
They never did, that's why the policy failed to achieve its goals.
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u/sabres_guy 19h ago
So they built all those shoebox condos specifically marketed as investments for people wanting to raise a family and simply live in the place they are buying?
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u/MrFenrirulfr 19h ago
Domestic investors were the primary purchaser. Foreign buyers was a boogeyman to distract and placate the masses.
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u/LetsGoEighty 16h ago
That's absolutely not true at all. Look into money laundering in Canadian real estate. Specifically the "Vancouver Model". Billions were funneled into real estate causing a real, measured increase in pricing.
Obviously domestic buyers were the majority but foreign investment was and is a real issue and driving up the prices even higher.
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u/MrFenrirulfr 16h ago
Yes. I did look into that. Its used as an example of how the ban failed. The money was routed through and handled by members with Canadian citizenship. Thats why it never stopped.
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u/LetsGoEighty 16h ago
So we agree the ban didnt go far enough and foreign investment was and remains a real issue.
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u/MrFenrirulfr 16h ago
No, not at all. You are trying to equate foreign investment with literal organized crime done through domestic channels.
Foreign investment in Canada is only seen as bad because productive investing in Canada is bad. Investors have focused on rent-seeking behaviours because we discouraged growth and productivity. This is true of both foreign and domestic investors. The solution is to make productive growth more profitable then rent-seeking. Which is currently being deployed and showing success.
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u/LetsGoEighty 15h ago
The conversation is about housing, nobody here thinks investment in productivity is bad. Thats not what caused this increase in housing prices.
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u/MrFenrirulfr 15h ago
Everything i said applys to housing as well.
Foreign investors can either rent-seek, such as buying investment property, or they can provide capital for productive building, such as long term rental units and homes to sell. Its up to us to foster a productive enviroment to avoid rent-seeking behaviours.
If you are still trying to blame Canada's unaffordable housing on foreign buyers then that's you own person opinion directly disputed by fact. Our issues come from within.
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u/Izuall1437 13h ago
Nothing because the ban was gutted immediately after coming in to effect. It was only put in place to get a headline and not actually be a ban that does anything.
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u/SludgeFilter 19h ago
If they remove it better only be for new construction only
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u/mykittenfarts 19h ago
Why?
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u/SludgeFilter 18h ago
That way we get new construction which we desperately need. It's not a new concept Australian-Style Model (Under Consideration): Industry groups and developers have pushed for a policy similar to Australia's framework, which permanently blocks foreign buyers from purchasing existing homes but allows them to buy new construction or pre-sale homes to inject capital into housing supply and labor markets.
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u/mykittenfarts 18h ago
I didn’t realize this was an Australian model for… new development? Is it working? Are you Australian?
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u/SludgeFilter 15h ago
Yeah you can't buy existing housing stock in Australia as a foreigner so that is working. I am Canadian
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u/pm_me_your_pay_slips 18h ago
Great, the math checks out. Inject new demand so maybe new supply appears.
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u/Still-Good1509 19h ago
The way the ban was written it dosnt have any sway on Brookfield they still have free access to our market lifting this ban will allow competition for Brookfield so not likely to allow it to expire
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u/Rothgardius 7h ago
The new prices are here to stay. That’s how inflation works. The taxes are here to see if people still buy. When the taxes are gone, that gap becomes profit.
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u/hasando9 18h ago
Sadly government is desperate and want foreign buyers to inject money for shoebox condos
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u/Worldgonecrazylately 17h ago
This isn't a political football. This is a cash cow (via taxes on the middle class) for either party, so neither will want to see prices drop.
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u/Maximum_Error3083 15h ago
No government wants to see it drop because they know the effects would be devastating for the Canadian economy.
Banks have a maximum loan to value (LTV) they can lend at by law. Widespread losses would mean bankrupting people at renewal by forcing them to cough up tens of thousands of dollars or more to cover the gap. Which wouldn’t be feasible, so then instead you’d have more government bailouts.
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u/Worldgonecrazylately 15h ago
Bingo.
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u/Maximum_Error3083 15h ago
The perspective on Reddit about consumer protection is very much one way only. They want the government to intervene and prevent prices from being too high so people can get favourable purchases — but they don’t want the government to do anything to prevent someone who just bought a home from being plunged into insolvency if the market takes a negative turn.
This is what a ton of first time home buyers that purchased in 2021-22 would be potentially facing. But once you actually move from “wanting to own” to “purchased a home” you also move from “victim of an unfair housing market” to “perpetrator of wealth inequality against others”
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u/Laval09 Québec 9h ago
" prevent someone who just bought a home from being plunged into insolvency"
Depends on who they are and how they bought the house. If its an honest hardworking person who patiently built up credit, saved up their own down payment and bought entirely within their means, then yes I'd like the government to prevent that person from going into insolvency.
If its someone who got help from the bank of mom and dad, someone who got a surprise windfall or someone who has alternative revenue streams other than their 9-5 job, then I don't want the government to lift a finger to help them. If they had help to get ahead then that same help must be used to prevent them from falling behind.
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u/Maximum_Error3083 7h ago
Well, public policy doesn’t work like that. Apart from being blatantly discriminatory, that would be logistically impossible to administer.
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u/Laval09 Québec 7h ago
"public policy"
Doesnt work like that yet. But as we're seeing in the States, public policy is subject to change.
"blatantly discriminatory"
One mans discrimination is another mans exclusivity.
"logistically impossible to administer"
It would actually be easy. Offer emergency relief for those facing a housing loss due to insolvency, and then verify that those applying for it meet the eligibility criteria.
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u/Particular-Act-8911 18h ago
The coming immigration increase and lift on the foreign buyer van is to lift our real estate that's almost halfway to tanking to realistic levels.
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u/modsaretoddlers 18h ago
Nothing really. We only build luxury homes, anyway. They only buy luxury homes. Seems like that market is securely locked down by foreign buyers already.
I have an idea though: why don't we start a program where you can buy a home from your nearest grocery store and return it whenever we feel like it? We can work for maybe 5 years, save up enough at our pure shit pay jobs for a down-payment, go to the bank, exchange our down-payment coupled with a secure loan, take our loonie down to Superstore, and insert our payment into the receptacle. Now we've got the mobile homes the government has been promising us for 20 years.
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u/RefrigeratorOk648 17h ago edited 17h ago
So where are the stats from before the ban ? From what I can remember they did not collect stats so they actually had no idea if it would work, They just did something to please the public. I bet they aren't going track it after it runs out either. You need the numbers to make a meaningful policy and to measure the success or failure of it.
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u/Itwasuntilitwasnt 18h ago
They are still buying properties just using Canadians to do so. Have we all not looked around.