Hello everyone from r/askmath. Anyone else here interested in statistics? Actually, what I wanted to talk about also has A LOT to do with psychology and human social behavior.
A few days ago, I watched a video that introduced me to a rather strange question. According to the video, if you ask people to randomly pick any number between 1 and 10, they’re more likely to choose 7. Have you ever noticed this? Apparently, it’s also the most commonly chosen number when people are asked about their favorite number.
The explanation behind this phenomenon is that, when asked to make a random choice, people immediately rule out 1 and 10 because they’re at the extremes and don’t feel random to whoever’s making the choice. Then 5 gets ruled out because it’s right in the middle and doesn’t feel random either. After that come the even numbers, since the human brain associates a sense of order with multiples of 2 and therefore doesn’t consider them very random.
My theory is that the brain does the same thing with multiples of all integers, just to a lesser extent as the integers get larger. Therefore, odd prime numbers should be perceived by the brain as more random. We can rule out 2, since it never really became part of our intuitive understanding of prime numbers in this context, for obvious reasons.
Finally, we’re left with 3 and 7, and 3 gets picked less often because it’s smaller, so 7 wins in the end.
I didn’t find that chain of reasoning particularly convincing, so I decided to do a little experiment of my own to check whether the claim actually held up. I asked several people I know to give me a random number between 1 and 10.
Before getting into the results, I should mention that they shouldn’t be taken too seriously. Anyone with a basic understanding of statistics knows that such a small sample size, the bare minimum for this kind of analysis, isn’t enough to draw conclusions about a larger population.
As expected, 7 won, but it didn’t just get the expected majority of 45% but it blew past that figure, reaching 60%.
On top of that, 3 came in second place, which continues to support our hypothesis. The numbers at the extremes were among the least popular choices, just as predicted.
These two odd prime numbers (3 and 7), which account for only 20% of all the possible numbers, were chosen by 80% of the people. The third-place number was 6 (10%). All the remaining numbers were chosen equally often.
Of course, people might have their own perfectly valid personal reasons for loving the number 7 that have nothing to do with psychosocial patterns. But given these results, it’s clear that the majority of people who would choose 7 are incredibly predictable within this particular context.
But hey, it’s “just” a choice between 1 and 10, right?
It’s just curious to see this trait in people who say they don’t want to be part of the crowd and who tend to show a certain degree of individualism most of the time. And it’s also curious that they haven’t noticed this pattern yet... even though it’s followed by the majority and is so obvious to anyone, or at least, it should be!