a lot of the like Talarico +6 polls had a lot of u decideds. I think you guys are also underestimating the “shy Tory” effect, like what happened with Trump. it’s going to be close but Paxton ultimately is going to prevail by less than a point.

if they gain it he's staying on if they don't he's definitely out.

there is zero chance one of those happens and the other doesn't

How are you feeling?

Dream Ticket ngl

highlights of this datafolha poll is :

• flávio losing 2 points to undecided + blank/null votes
• Lula is rejected by 46%, government rated is disapproved by 50%
• flávio is rejected by 44%

datafolha has had a bad reputation for taking account of right-wing votes, but their second round polls are usually very much accurate as they can be

This is a bit of a silly take (kinda fighting invisible ghosts) but I feel like over the past several years I've seen some persistent online commentary from Democrats implying that Minnesota is not a state that would vote Republican. This usually comes more so from regular liberals/progressives online and less so from pollsters and others who follow exact voting trends, but still.

Minnesota is also much more in line with its neighbors than people seem to discuss. It is not all that different from my outside perspective to Wisconsin or Michigan. The cultural components people bring up (like the unique Democratic-Farmer-Labor aspect of the state party or the Scandinavian heritage of Minnesotans) seem to me to be less likely explanations for Minnesota's Democratic streak and more likely post hoc justifications for why Dems win there.

More likely than any cultural component is simply that the Twin Cities outpace the rural areas to a level that Detroit and Milwaukee can't always reach. Outside of Minneapolis and St. Paul the rural areas of the state are almost as ruby-red as rural Wisconsin or Michigan. Importantly, then, if the source of Democratic dominance in Minnesota is the demographic strength of the Twin Cities, then changes in turnout and population can cause elections to flip.

I don't expect Minnesota to flip anytime soon, but the state is no Massachusetts or Maryland. In a Republican wave election, especially if there are concerns about local Democratic leadership (something similar to the recent fraud scandal) I could 100% see a shift of 5-6 points; which would be enough to flip Presidential, Senate, and Gubernatorial seats alike.

probably online meltdown for conservatives but that's about it ?

I saw somebody here saying he is like a black Republican, in that they chose a black candidate to win the black vote, without changing any of the policy. I like Talarico but in my opinion his defense of abortion (and other things) using the Bible is very upsetting.

link to article: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/15/texas-glitch-delay-voter-registrations

How is this going to affect the elections? If this is voter suppression will it likely cost Talarico the election?

For net odds change,
GA: Ossoff +22%
NH: Pappas +10%
NC: Cooper +30%
MI: Rodgers +8%
AK: Peltola +55%
OH: Brown +24%
ME: Collins +2%
TX: Talarico +42%
IA: Turek +17%
KS: Hamilton +27%

Maybe a hot take these days

I have to admit it: the races are tightening, and gas is going back down. If the election had been held two weeks ago, it would've been a tsunami, but in November probably not. Ken Paxton is awful but Talarico's illness came at just the wrong time, it's gonna move it from like a 3.5 point win to just 1.75, and the polls are tightening. Sherrod Brown's electoral omnipotence has faded, while Susan Collin's still remains. Peltola will win but not by the 8 point margin I would've told you a week ago. I was planning on finishing the Path to the Senate Majority series I started a while ago but I'm too busy and can't find the motivation, maybe I'll get around to it later.

all types of shit went wrong with the governors one so i just did away with it