🇺🇸 US Treasury is planning to cut auction sizes for long-dated government bonds next month.

It's expected that Treasury will reduce auction sizes by $3 billion per auction for both 20-year and 30-year bonds.

Some banks are even expecting that Treasury will completely cancel the issuance of 20-year debt and shift the borrowing burden onto short-term T-bills.

After increasing long-term debt buybacks, Treasury is now trying something new to bring yields down.

Turns out a housing market where nobody can afford to buy and nobody wants to sell isn’t great for mortgage lenders either.

Curious to see what has to happen for the housing market to turn around.

I’m not very educated on the plumbing of the lending market, but I assumed mortgage lenders were doing just fine lol

The US housing market is officially a buyer's market:

There were an estimated +57.9% more home sellers than buyers in August, the biggest gap on record.

This is up sharply from +52.1% the month before, which was the 2nd-strongest buyer's market on record.

This comes as the number of active sellers surged +3.9% MoM, or +57,958, to 1,534,918, the most since early 2020,marking the largest monthly increase on record.

At the same time, there were ~972,300 active homebuyers, the 2nd-lowest reading on record.

This brings the gap between active sellers and homebuyers to a massive 562,618.

As a result, 36 of the 49 major US metros are now buyer's markets, led by Nashville, where sellers outnumber buyers by +139%, followed by Miami at +138%, and Houston at +131%.

Global debt market continues to race higher as the US 10yr clips 5.25%, levels we haven’t seen since 2007.

What makes this move today interesting, is gold and silver have simultaneously tanked…take that Peter Schiff 😂

This move has really divided investors into two camps.

1. If you think Treasury yields are headed much higher over the next 5–10 years, why aren’t you locking as much long-term, fixed financing as you possibly can? You should be scrambling to get it.

By YOUR forecast, today’s money is cheap.

I totally understand this point of view, they are essentially calling out everyone that is worried about higher yields for not believing that they are going to go much higher…bc if you did, then you should be trying to lock in long term fixed rates here.

1. The 10-year is the world’s risk-free benchmark. When it gaps this fast, every other rate: mortgages (already ~7%), auto loans, credit cards, corporate borrowing, municipal debt…reprices instantly. Duration books get crushed.

Levered players (hedge funds, some banks, pension overlays) start getting margin calls. If this keeps going toward 5.50–6.00%, you start worrying about forced selling in equities, credit, and anything that used 4% as the discount rate.

I totally understand this point as well, bc at this point, I would say the idea of a “soft landing” is not realistic.

JUST IN: Gold and silver prices dump following higher-than-expected inflation report, wiping out a combined $700,000,000,000.

Outside of fuel, the data was inline. Seems like this is an overreaction? The US 2yr treasury also popped on the news. I’d expect that to be back down by the week.

The gap between US earnings growth and the rest of the world has never been wider:

Earnings of US companies have grown nearly +1,300% since 1990.

By comparison, earnings of global companies excluding the US have risen +500% since 1990.

In other words, US earnings growth has been 2.6 times larger than the rest of the world.

This comes as global ex-US profit growth has remained roughly unchanged between 2008 and 2025.

The US economy is in a league of its own.

JUST IN: AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile stocks all crash over 7% after Elon Musk's SpaceX $SPCX announces plans to turn Starlink into major US mobile carrier.

I remember the tinfoil hat crew always talking about how Elon’s ultimate plan was to create an “eveything app” that will be a cell phone, social media and banking all in one.

Looks like he is well on his way to this with X, given the recent roll out of X money and now using starlink for cell phone service.

Would you buy an X phone?

Investors are no longer hedging against a tech stock crash.

The average 1-month put-to-call skew of the Nasdaq 100 index is down to 0 points, its 4th-lowest reading over the last 20 years.

This measures how much more investors are paying for downside protection through put options than for upside exposure through call options, with the current reading indicating historically low demand for Nasdaq put options.

This figure has dropped -0.25 points since March 2026, one of the largest 6-month declines on record.

By comparison, the long-term average of this metric is 0.11 points.

Meanwhile, the cost of options used to bet on or protect against large moves in the average Nasdaq 100 stock fell sharply last week, with 1-month implied volatility dropping -17 percentage points, to ~40%.

UPDATE: As of this morning, 43.1% of all US home for sale are now undergoing price cuts.

This is the highest read all year, up 70 basis points since last week.

Two tiers have emerged at the top of price cutting behavior.

Tier 1 - Danger zone:

Oregon: 51.8%
Colorado: 51.5%

Tier 2 - Elevated on watch zone:

North Carolina: 48.7%
Indiana: 48.6%
South Carolina: 48.5%
Texas: 47.9%
Utah: 47.7%
Arizona: 47%

I have been seeing a lot about the beginning of the memory bubble popping. With reverting happening in the AI space, I figured that was just bears clinging onto any type of hope.

But then I saw Micron $MU chart. It could just be a healthy pull back, or it has broken below the wedge, completing the "return to normal" stage of the bubble.

Memory manufacturer stocks have always peaked when gross margins flatten and begin declining.

Personally, I think Micron is going to be fine, especially with their semi-conductor chip plant being built in the US and the need for RAM to power AI moving forward.

Also saw Sourh Korea market dive at the open, circuit breakers activated at a 5% drop, with the SK Hynix $SKHY gapping down 4.5%. This chart doesn’t look great though lol.

Retail investors sold -$300 million in ETFs on Wednesday, their largest daily sale on record.

This also surpasses the previous daily record of -$260 million set during the 2020 pandemic.

This comes as the semiconductor ETF, $SOXX, alone recorded -$270 million in retail outflows, its largest daily retail withdrawal in at least 12 months.

As a result, $SOXX posted -$695 million in total outflows last week, the largest weekly outflow since mid-August.

At the same time, investors withdrew -$1.2 billion from the 3x leveraged long semiconductor ETF, $SOXL, their largest weekly withdrawal since June.

Furthermore, the Momentum ETF, $MTUM, saw -$12 million in retail outflows on Wednesday, following -$30 million on Tuesday.

Retail investors are locking in gains in tech.

US long-term unemployment is at crisis levels:

The number of Americans unemployed for 27+ weeks surged +155,000 in August, to 1.93 million, the 4th-highest reading since December 2021.

As a % of total unemployment, this metric rose +1.5 percentage points last month, to 27.0%, the 3rd-highest since December 2021.

Long-term unemployment has now increased for more than 3 years.

This figure is now higher than in every recession except the 2008 Financial Crisis and the 2020 Pandemic.

By comparison, during the current economic cycle, this percentage bottomed at 17.8% in February 2023.

The labor market continues to appear weak beneath the surface.

The US bull market is entering its 5th year.

Since the October 2022 low, the S&P 500 has rallied +118%, outpacing the average bull market since WWII.

This is also the 3rd-largest gain among bull markets at their 4th anniversary.

Over this period, the index has returned +21.6% in Year 1, +33.7% in Year 2, +12.7% in Year 3, and +19.4% in Year 4.

The average S&P 500 bull market's return since WWII has been +20.8% in Year 5, the 2nd-strongest 12-month performance after +39.1% in Year 1.

Of the 13 previous bull markets, only 6 lasted long enough to reach this stage.

If history is any guide, the market is heading for another year of strong gains.

For every $1 invested in the S&P 500, ~41 cents now goes to just the 10 largest stocks.

Nvidia, $NVDA, alone accounts for 8 cents, followed by Apple, $AAPL, at 7 cents, Microsoft, $MSFT, and Alphabet, $GOOGL, at 6 cents each, and Amazon, $AMZN, at 4 cents.

The next 5 mega-cap names, Broadcom, $AVGO, Meta, $META, Tesla, $TSLA, Micron, $MU, and AMD, $AMD, represent another 10 cents combined.

By comparison, the next 10 largest firms account for just 10 cents combined.

The top 10 stocks now represent almost 2x the allocation of 402 other companies in the index, which together account for just 23 cents of every $1.

Big Tech effectively is the market. Let’s just pray something doesn’t break or…

American wages are not keeping up with inflation.

US average hourly earnings adjusted for inflation fell -0.3% YoY in September, marking the 5th consecutive decline in real wages.

This follows a -0.2% YoY decrease in August, -0.3% in July, and -0.8% in June, the largest decline since May 2023.

This marks a sharp deterioration from +1.3% YoY growth in real wages recorded in February.

This all comes as US CPI inflation has remained above +3.0% for 6 consecutive months, the longest such streak since mid-2024.

Meanwhile, in nominal terms, average hourly earnings rose +3.0% YoY in September, their slowest growth since May 2021.

Nominal wage growth has been in a downtrend since March 2025, when earnings grew +4.2% YoY.

Markets are bracing for a rate hike.

So, how do US stocks usually behave following the first hike of a Fed tightening cycle?

The S&P 500 has declined by an average of -4.0% over the 6 weeks following the first Fed rate hike of a cycle across 7 such episodes since 1988.

Subsequently, however, stocks recovered all of those losses over the next 5-6 weeks on average.

Then, in the 6 months following the first hike, the S&P 500 returned +4.0% on average.

After 12 months, the S&P 500’s average gain surged to +9.0%, with positive returns occurring in every episode except 2022.

Fed rate hikes have historically been great buying opportunities.