I know this might sound funny, but sometimes I can't help but genuinely get a type of "Cosmic Horror" type of feeling whenever I see any "Dead man Walking" tornadoes or even those VERY powerful tornadoes with many subvortices/satellite tornadoes from them. To me at least, they honestly feel like "Shybeasts" in a way too. That's just what I think, though. :)

This happened just 10 minutes ago. It’s only small but my first Tornado of any kind !!! Amazing !!

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-15T05:34:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 150534 SWODY1 SPC AC 150532

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are possible today across parts of the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Additional storms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible in parts of the southern Plains.

...Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys... At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward today into the Northeast, as a large-scale trough moves into the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will track northeastward from the mid Mississippi Valley into the southwestern Great Lakes. Ahead of the surface low, a warm front will move northward through the Ohio Valley. To the south of the warm front, surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s F. This will enable an axis of instability to develop by afternoon, with MLCAPE likely peaking around 1000 J/kg. Ahead of the trough, a mid-level jet will overspread the warm sector during the afternoon. This will create moderate deep-layer shear over much of the Ohio Valley, which will support isolated supercell development. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in the Ohio Valley by mid afternoon have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range suggesting that a tornado or two will be possible. Short line segments capable of isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible. Poor lapse rates will be the main limiting factor for a greater severe threat coverage and magnitude.

...Southern Plains... An upper-level trough will move into the Great Plains today, as mid-level flow remains southwesterly ahead of the trough. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward across the southern Plains, with the front located from west-central Texas into southeast Oklahoma by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be weak, low-level convergence along and near the front will result in thunderstorm development. Storms will move east-southeastward across a narrow corridor of instability, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. As low-level lapse rates steepen in the afternoon, isolated severe wind gusts will be possible with multicells. However, deep-layer shear will be marginal for organized convection, and poor lapse rates will be a major limiting factor.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/15/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Beven ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Simon Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 996 MB * Current Movement: Unknown * Location: 19.2N 108.5W

Hurricane Trudy Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 75 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 989 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH * Location: 12.9N 101.6W

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-14T05:52:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 140552 SWODY1 SPC AC 140550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and potentially a tornado threat will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat will also be possible from parts of the Ozarks into the central Appalachians.

...Southern Plains... At mid-levels, southwesterly flow will be in place across much of the south-central U.S. today, as a large-scale trough and low move through the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward this morning across northern Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Numerous thunderstorms will be likely this morning near the front. The effective boundary is expected to be further south, which will shift the effective destabilization further south as well. By early afternoon, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to be located from west Texas northeastward into southwestern and south-central Oklahoma, where MLCAPE will likely range from 1500 to 2000 J/kg. Areas that destabilize significantly will have potential for severe storms.

RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis by mid to late afternoon have supercell wind profiles, with gradually veering winds with height in the low-levels and about 50 knots of southwesterly flow in the mid-levels. This will support supercell development with storms that form in the stronger instability and remain discrete. Supercells will be capable of severe wind gusts, hail and perhaps a tornado or two. During the evening, a transition to linear mode is expected, but a threat for embedded supercells will continue. The more intense line segments could produce severe wind gusts, potentially above 70 mph.

...Ozarks/Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians... An anticyclonic flow pattern will be in place over the eastern half of the nation today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the Ozarks and Ohio Valley today. To the south of the boundary, surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F will likely result in pockets of moderate instability by afternoon. In spite of limited large-scale ascent, increasing low-level convergence near the boundary will result in scattered convective initiation. Deep-layer shear near the front may be strong enough for a few isolated severe storms in areas that destabilize the most. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/14/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Beven ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Simon Intermediate Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 105 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 969 MB * Current Movement: WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 3 MPH * Location: 19.8N 108.1W

Tropical Storm Trudy Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH * Location: 11.1N 99.0W

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Interesting film, gives a view of the amount of damage caused by this outbreak

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-13T05:24:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 130524 SWODY1 SPC AC 130522

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF KS/NORTHWEST MO INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado are expected over portions of the central and southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley this afternoon into tonight. More isolated severe weather may occur from southwest Texas into the mid Mississippi Valley, and in parts of New York.

...Central/southern Plains into the Midwest... A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly east-southeastward across the Great Basin and Desert Southwest through the period. Downstream of this low and attendant trough, a lee surface cyclone is forecast to meander across the south-central High Plains. A weak surface trough will extend southwest of the lee cyclone across the southern High Plains, while a nearly stationary front extends east-northeast across KS into northern MO through late afternoon.

Despite generally modest midlevel lapse rates, seasonably strong heating and rich low-level moisture will support moderate to locally strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) this afternoon, along/east of the surface trough across the southern Plains and along/south of the front across KS/MO. Scattered storm development is expected near KS/MO front by late afternoon, with at least isolated storms possible farther south into the southern High Plains.

Moderate deep-layer shear downstream of the deep mid/upper-level low/trough will support organized storms, with initial supercell development possible. Strong to severe gusts and large hail are expected to be the primary hazards, though some increase in low-level shear/SRH by early evening could result in a tornado or two near the front and surface trough. Modest upscale growth will be possible later tonight across parts of KS/MO and western/southern IL, though longevity of the severe threat is uncertain due to increasing nocturnal stabilization with time.

...Parts of western/central NY... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move quickly from the Great Lakes towards the Northeast later today. A surface low will move from northern MI into Ontario. Early-day clouds/precipitation will help to reinforce a nearly stationary front extending southeast of the low into parts of western/central NY. Relatively rich low-level moisture (with 60s F dewpoints) will be in place along and southwest of this front by afternoon, though modest heating and lapse rates will tend to limit destabilization.

Increasing deep-layer flow and some low-level hodograph curvature will provide a favorable wind profile for organized convection, though potential for warm-sector development remains uncertain, due to the modest instability. Some threat for localized wind damage and possibly a brief tornado could accompany any sustained surface-based storms, though confidence in the magnitude and coverage of the threat remains low at this time.

..Dean/Chalmers.. 10/13/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A low pressure trough located several hundred miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Further development of this system is no longer expected as the low moves slowly northward to north-northwestward within an area of strong upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$ Forecaster Hagen ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Simon Intermediate Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 977 MB * Current Movement: WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH * Location: 20.4N 107.2W

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Huge storm here in São João da Boa Vista, São Paulo.

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-12T05:37:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 120537 SWODY1 SPC AC 120535

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY... No severe weather is forecast across the U.S. today and tonight.

...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, an anticyclonic flow pattern will remain over the eastern two-thirds of the nation today, as a trough moves through the western states. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will be located from the Gulf Coast into the central Appalachians. A cold front will move southeastward through the north-central U.S., as a surface low moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development will be possible today near and ahead of the surface low across the Great Lakes, and further west within the post-frontal airmass in the northern Plains. Scattered storms will also form within southwest flow aloft, from parts of the Intermountain West into the central Rockies. Storms will also be possible in the southern High Plains, across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain and in south Florida. No severe threat is forecast across the continental U.S. today and tonight.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/12/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 12 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms, which are occurring on the east side of the low, extending toward the westernmost Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear, at best, marginally conducive for any development of this system during the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected to continue for the next day or two across western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and some flooding is possible there as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$ Forecaster Hagen ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Simon Intermediate Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 115 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 958 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH * Location: 20.1N 106.4W

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There are a few damage reports coming out of roofs lost and trees down. I've seen quite a few reports of 80-90 mph winds as well.
Image from Ground Truth App

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-11T05:53:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 110553 SWODY1 SPC AC 110550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and a tornado or two will be possible today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region.

...Mid-Atlantic... The remnants of Isaias will move through the southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic today. At the surface, a moist airmass will advect northeastward across North Carolina and eastern Virginia, where dewpoints will increase into the 70s F. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range over parts of the Mid-Atlantic by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the Carolina Piedmont this morning and move northeastward into the lower elevations of eastern North Carolina and south-central Virginia early this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings from near Raleigh northward to west of Richmond around midday have long curved hodographs, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 200 to 225 m2/s2 range. This will support a tornado threat with supercells that remain discrete. The tornado threat should persist into the evening as the stronger storms move toward the Mid-Atlantic coast.

...Desert Southwest/Four Corners... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward today from the Desert Southwest into the Four Corners region. At the surface, an axis of low-level moisture will be in place from southwestern Arizona extending northeastward toward the Four Corners. Weak instability will develop along this southwest-to-northeast corridor as surface temperature warm. Large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough will support scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon. Forecast soundings from western Arizona into southeast Utah this afternoon have strong unidirectional winds from the south-southwest in the low to mid-levels. The resultant strong deep-layer shear could support a marginal wind-damage threat.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/11/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias, located near the border of Tennessee and Kentucky.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: An elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms extending from these islands southward into the eastern Tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some development of this system over the next day or two before upper-level winds become too strong for development by midweek. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will be possible during the next few days over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$ Forecaster Papin ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Simon Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 155 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 930 MB * Current Movement: NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 MPH * Location: 18.7N 105.2W

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I Know The Ef Scale (Enhanced Fujita Scale) Depends On Damage My opinion is it should've been a Low End Ef 4. I am sorry if I made some people Angry bout this.

Greensburg was the first Ef5 (first ever ef 5 of the enhanced fujita scale) happend on may 4th 2007.

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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-10T05:56:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 100556 SWODY1 SPC AC 100554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat will be possible today from the eastern Florida Panhandle northeastward into the Carolinas. A few severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Desert Southwest.

...Eastern Florida Panhandle/Georgia/Carolinas... The remnants of Isaias are forecast to move northward into the Tennessee Valley today. The eastern extent of the system will move north-northeastward across Georgia and South Carolina today, where isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop as surface temperatures warm. From eastern Georgia into South Carolina, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F will contribute to moderate instability, with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. RAP forecast soundings along and near the axis of instability this afternoon have veering winds with height below 850 mb and 30 to 40 knot of flow in the low to mid-levels. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to peak near 225 m2/s2. This will support a tornado threat with supercells that remain semi-discrete. The tornado threat is expected to persist into the evening as the eastern periphery of Isaias moves into the Carolinas.

...Western and Southern Arizona/Southeast California... A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward toward Baja California today, with the system interacting with Tropical Storm Rachel. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture advection will increase surface dewpoints into the 60s F over much of western and southern Arizona by this evening. In response, MLCAPE is forecast to increase to near 1000 J/kg over parts of southwest Arizona. This combined with large-scale ascent ahead of the system and lift associated with a low-level jet will provide support for scattered thunderstorm development. In addition, the exit region of a mid-level jet is forecast to overspread southwest Arizona during the evening. This feature will create moderate to strong deep-layer shear, which will be sufficient for supercells. If a supercell can develop, then isolated severe wind gusts would be possible.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/10/2026

$$

```

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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias, located inland over central Alabama. Future advisories will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 am CDT.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Berg ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 992 MB * Current Movement: NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 22 MPH * Location: 24.2N 121.4W

Hurricane Simon Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 145 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 942 MB * Current Movement: N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH * Location: 17.2N 104.6W

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Tiny tiny!

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• Mesoscale Discussion 2347

📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-10-09T05:39:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 090539 SWODY1 SPC AC 090537

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with Hurricane Isaias will have potential to produce tornadoes from this afternoon into the overnight period from the Florida Panhandle into southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia.

...Florida Panhandle/Southeast Alabama/Southwest Georgia... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Isaias to make landfall near Pensacola early this evening. As the center of Isaias approaches the Gulf Coast this afternoon, rainbands will spread across the Florida Panhandle. Within these bands, thunderstorms will develop and move inland. The airmass ahead of these bands is forecast to be very moist and unstable. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will contribute to moderate instability, with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range along parts of the coast. RAP forecast soundings in the Florida Panhandle to the east of Isaias' center early this evening suggest that 0-3 km storm-relative helicity will increase to around 200 m2/s2, which will support rotating storms with potential to produce tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to persist into the overnight period as the rainbands associated with Isaias move northward into southern Alabama and southwest Georgia.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 10/09/2026

$$

```

🌀 Active Tropical Weather Links

• National Hurricane Center
• Atlantic 7-Day Outlook
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🌊 Tropical Weather Outlook

```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Isaias, located over the north-central Gulf of America.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Kelly ```

⚠️ Active Tropical Cyclones

Hurricane Simon Intermediate Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 90 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 978 MB * Current Movement: NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH * Location: 15.9N 104.5W

Hurricane Isaias Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 110 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 963 MB * Current Movement: NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH * Location: 26.4N 88.0W

Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory * Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 MPH * Minimum Central Pressure: 994 MB * Current Movement: NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 3 MPH * Location: 22.7N 124.9W

This dashboard updates automatically every 15 minutes with live data from the NWS/SPC and NHC.

Watched the whole thing form and mature from the top of a hill by my house. Nobody was injured luckily, but it was an early birthday present from Mother Nature!