There are a number who would laugh at the idea of the Frogs beating the crap out of Grambling as the team having "success". If we are talking about reaching the ultimate goal we are told for this program which is competing for the Big 12 title and a chance to play in the CFP I completely agree with that idea.
Nothing should be taken for granted, but beating Grambling is a fairly low benchmark . It is however a step in playing meaningful games in December if you winning that game meant you did things in the manner you need to build successful habits that you can carry into the conference season and hopefully pay dividends during that 4-game stretch in November.
I am not going to try to convince anyone that Jayden Craig had one the of great games of any TCU quarterback throwing the football against Grambling, but how many people after the UNC game thought it would be possible that even against Grambling Craig would put 29 of 31 throws in a place where the receiver could or should have made the catch? I am not as convinced the Jeremy Scott drop on the deep throw was on Scott, that looked to me to be a good effort by Jeremy to get back and het his hands on an underthrown ball.
Yes, those TCU receivers were open against Grambling, but during that 2nd quarter stretch against UNC there were 6-7 consecutive throws that really were not contested by the Tarheels that Craig just didn't give his receivers a reasonable chance to make a play on them. So what changed? I don't know, what I know though is we saw the difference, and we need to see that same behavior play out again against a better opponent.
As for the drops? The big plays might stand out more, but just as critical if not more are plays such as Ed Small's 3rd down drop and James Scott's 3rd down drops. Both were catches that weren't contested and both would have extended drivers. Hitting big plays when they present themselves is important no doubt, but remember that those are often a by product of the Frogs being able to sustain drives and force defenses to play up to stop the run and cut off inside passing lanes.
Arkansas State isn't coming to Ft Worth for a check, Butch Jones doesn't coach that way, and they will be aggressive and come after the Frogs. They will have game plans not based upon keeping the score close, but winning the game and this will be a dress rehearsal for Orlando.
Their strengths on offense and defense will challenge some of the weaknesses the Frogs need to address. Example, their secondary is aggressive and will try to be physical with the Frogs' receivers. Hayes and Small have showed some upside for the Frogs, but neither is a big body and that is where Sammis needs someone like James Scott, Shelton, or Jeremy Scott to show they can handle being the big body receiver who can make contested catches to extend drivers. Kari is a possibility, but if one of those others can step forward that allows Sammis to use Ashley to create mismatches out of those tight formations.
The Frogs' offensive line need to show continued growth in both run and pass blocking and they will get a better challenge as well. Ark State can't match the UNC defensive line talent (something I think we will learn was greatly under appreciated), but they do have some and are aggressive. A perfect test to see where the Frogs' offensive line is roughly a month into the season.
Defensively, the strength for the Frogs has been the defensive tackles which is a nice base to build on, but there needs to be some real progress shown at the defensive end positions and linebacker. Oyewale has been tough against the run, but outside of bull rushing he hasn't shown many pass rush tricks and during Grambling we saw Avalos using a variety of combinations. The Ark State quarterback is experienced and has some arm talent. Who steps up to provide the Frogs a consistent pass rush from the edge? Unfortunately, growth isn't always linear and predictable so do we see a jump from Schobel, Woodfork or Hayward, Heck, do see more of Carter Buck (Go back and look who forced the bad throw on the Parks' interception) because he showed a bit more punch and explosiveness from the edge.
Truthfully, outside of the defensive tackle position and corner the Frogs are searching for consistency and production at edge, linebacker, and safety. There have been flashes mixed with moments of WTF was that, all which are part of the growing pains with new players be those recruits or transfers.
Arkansas State isn't a pallet cleanser like Grambling, they are a stress test for where the Frogs are before they go to Orlando. They don't have to be perfect, don't have to be as good as they will need to be in November of when BYU comes to town or when they go to Orlando.
What they need to be is capable of showing improvement since Ireland, showing growth and the ability to operate in their given offensive and defensive schemes. Hopefully, present some clearer answers at some key positions so that when the staff gets together on Sunday the answers to some critical questions won't be as difficult, the decisions or steps to find answers not so drastic.
If the Frogs show the continued trend of growth offensively I am not as concerned about their ability to move the ball and score points. My bigger concern is defensively and I would love to see some players step forward and present themselves as answers.
The big thing to remember though is regardless of the outcome on Saturday in Ft Worth, the real season starts in Orlando.