Can Former Republicans Win Elections as Democrats? David Jolly (FL governor race) & Janelle Stelson (PA 10 Congress)

[u/MakeModeratesMatter]

Can former Republicans win elections as Democrats?  Two important races this November may provide the answer.

In my current home of Florida, former Republican Congressman David Jolly is now the Democratic nominee for governor, challenging Republican Byron Donalds. Jolly left the GOP, became an independent, helped build the Forward Party, and eventually joined the Democrats.  Despite Florida's substantial Republican voter-registration advantage, recent polling and a shift in the Cook Political Report's race rating suggest Jolly could be competitive. See: Democrats In Strong Position To Regain Majority of Governors As Two More Ratings Shift in Their Favor | Cook Political Report He's also received the endorsement of the Forward Party. See: https://www.forwardparty.com/media/press_release/forward-party-endorses-david-jolly-for-governor-of-florida/

Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District, where I was born and raised, former Republican and longtime television news anchor Janelle Stelson is challenging Republican Congressman Scott Perry.  Stelson narrowly lost to Perry in 2024, but recent polling shows her slightly ahead, and the Cook Political Report has moved the race to Lean Democratic. See: Cook Political Report moves 18 House races toward Democrats She's also endorsed by “Republicans Against Perry,” a group encouraging GOP voters to cross party lines. https://politicspa.com/moderate-gop-group-backs-democrat-stelson-over-incumbent-perry-in-pa-10/149202/

Could their Republican backgrounds help Jolly and Stelson attract enough moderate Republicans and independents to win in November?  Let me know in the comments, and that's the question I explore further in my latest YouTube short video for Make Moderates Matter here (3-minute watch): Can Former Republicans Win as Democrats? 

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[u/bassman9999]

Having lived in Florida, I am familiar with the shenanigans that have occurred in its politics. Just because the candidate claims to be a Democrat, doesn't mean he really is. If Jolly comes out on top, I would expect a sudden and "truly heartfelt" switch to Republican ideals.

[u/Fragrant-Luck-8063 → u/bassman9999]

This is the 2nd election in a row that a former Republican is running for FL governor as a Democrat.

[u/bassman9999 → u/Fragrant-Luck-8063]

And look how well that turned out for the Dems.

[u/Mist_Rising]

It likely depends on the district/election field. You see party swapping a lot when those change. A Republican in a +8 R State district may run as a Democratic in a +3 democratic state. This is usually somewhat challenging for the candidates primary chances but in general works well. You may also see the Republican run in a smaller race then go Democratic in a state wide Kansas race (looking at you Barbara) because deep down they were always democratic.

Then you have the Strom Thurmans who were going to lose their seat so flip.

There is no hard fast rule, but it does make you easy to attack as a flip-flopper.

See also Gary Johnson who was a Republican who ran libertarian, and ideologically was libertarian in his presidency campaigns, but held that concept that maybe complete and total termination of government wasn't a great idea so got mocked.

[u/HappyBarbarian]

Well, the current establishment democrats are indistinguishable from Republicans of previous generations, so people are certainly going to try. However, I tend to think this is a losing strategy because you alienate the hard core republican base, and the democratic base isn’t falling for the ruse as often anymore

[u/Kursed_Valeth]

Based on the behavior of the Democrats in office and the way they campaign, the party is ONLY interested in former Republicans.

[u/lawmedy → u/Kursed_Valeth]

This probably hits so hard if you’re stupid