r/Padres • u/KTF-2026 SD • 2d ago
Analysis [Cassavell] Breaking down Padres' 2027 starting rotation options
https://www.mlb.com/news/breaking-down-padres-2027-starting-rotation-optionsHow the Padres could fill out their starting rotation for 2027
SAN DIEGO -- The Padres are set to enter the offseason with major questions about their starting rotation.
What else is new?
It’s become something of a yearly occurrence for the Padres to enter the winter in search of starting pitching. General manager A.J. Preller generally finds it, too, even if he has to get creative.
Before the offseason officially gets underway, here’s a look at who the Padres have, and who they might be losing, in their starting rotation:
Returning: Randy Vásquez
Let’s not lose sight of what Vásquez has meant for this rotation over the past couple seasons. When San Diego’s rotation was incredibly thin, Vásquez helped stabilize it. He posted a 3.87 ERA across 60 appearances (49 starts) in 2024 and ‘25.
Obviously, the Padres would like to have more certainty about their rotation than just Vásquez, but they can pencil him in the No. 4 spot for 2027 and feel relatively good about it.
Potentially returning: Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish
Big-time questions here. All very different.
Pivetta’s player option became a team option when he spent more than 130 days on the injured list with a flexor strain in his right elbow this season. He was excellent down the stretch, posting a 2.05 ERA after his return on Sept. 7, including two postseason outings. San Diego won all six of his starts. If the Padres are sure Pivetta is healthy, he’s worth the two years and $32 million remaining on his deal.
Speaking of health: Musgrove returned from right elbow surgery in the postseason and, pitching for the first time since 2024, looked about as sharp as the Padres could’ve hoped for. But he also had trouble building back into a starting role. It seems likely he’d attack that challenge anew next year.
Darvish, meanwhile, remains a wild card. With two years remaining on his contract, he still hasn’t decided whether he’s going to attempt a comeback from the right elbow surgery he underwent in October 2025. He will turn 41 next summer.
Likely a free agent: Michael King
King can opt out of the three-year deal he signed last December, which has two more years and $58 million remaining. (If he opts out, he would receive a $5 million buyout.)
Coming off the season -- and postseason -- that he just turned in, it seems likely he’d opt out. King made 32 starts with a 3.21 ERA, then owned the postseason stage with a 0.64 ERA across 14 innings. The 31-year-old figures to be one of the most sought-after starters on the free-agent market and could be seeking a longer-term deal. But King seems open to a reunion.
“San Diego has been incredible for me, and it’s all the way across the country from home,” said King, a native of Rochester, N.Y. “Now, I feel like I have a second home on the West Coast. It’s been awesome. And I hope to continue it.”
Free agents: Walker Buehler, Casey Mize, Lucas Giolito, Griffin Canning, Robbie Ray
Buehler’s resurgence was one of the biggest success stories of the Padres’ season. He signed a Minor League deal during camp, then made the roster, making 32 starts. He’ll hit the market again this winter and probably command a pay raise, though the Padres would presumably be interested in a reunion.
From the rest of that group? Mize, who was acquired at the Deadline, and Giolito, who signed as a free agent in April, both struggled mightily in San Diego. Mize posted a 7.46 ERA in 10 starts before landing on the IL with a right ankle sprain, while Giolito missed most of the season with right elbow inflammation.
Canning struggled to a 5.68 ERA in 30 appearances (11 starts). Ray was serviceable (5.02 ERA in 43 innings) after arriving at the Trade Deadline from the Giants, and could be an option at the right price. (So many of the Padres’ current options are righties, the lefty Ray could at least balance that.)
In the mix: JP Sears, Luis Gutierrez
Speaking of lefties … Sears will be out of options entering the 2027 season. He’s worth another look, at least during camp. Gutierrez, the team’s No. 12 prospect, must be added to the 40-man roster or be exposed to the Rule 5 Draft.
The verdict
Count Vásquez and Pivetta as in. (Or, if the Padres are worried about Pivetta’s health, then count those two years and $32 million as money that can be allocated toward a Pivetta-type addition.)
There are major questions beyond that. What can you count on from Musgrove? What about Darvish if he decides to return? Can Sears establish himself?
Among that group, let’s say you’re getting one back-of-the-rotation type starter. That leaves the Padres in need of at least two starting pitchers this winter, preferably front- or at least middle-of-the-rotation types. Preller has some work to do.
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u/padresandcubs Friar 2d ago
Biggest test of new owners appetite for winning will be how they address the rotation. King will undoubtably opt out, and he'll be the 2nd best free agent starter available behind Skubal.
Padres were 27th in MLB in terms of starter innings at 752.2 this year, that rounds out to about 4.2 IP per start over the full season. Bullpen picked up the slack all year (4th highest in innings pitched) but ideally you have a deeper rotation that can absorb more innings so that your bullpen is more rested going into the postseason. Some of the better seasons in 2022 and 2024 that yielded deeper playoff runs have all featured rotations that were at least in the top 10 of innings pitched (4th in '22, 10th in '24).
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u/Joe6268Cool 1d ago
I see a trend in the MLB: spend money on the bullpen. Quality starters have become so expensive that small-market teams opted for beefing up the pen. Preller likely started that trend.
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u/Heelincal El Niño 10h ago
Preller likely started that trend.
I'd argue the 2014-2015 Royals started it tbh.
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u/instaleyitrust 2d ago
King and Skubal. Make a statement and steal him from the dodgers at any price. Hash tag all in.
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u/Ok_Resolution_7500 “Goddammit Merrill” -🔥🎤 2d ago
Pick up Pivetta's team option and resign King. Hopefully Joe can work back into a starter role. Then sign someone else.
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u/pachydocerus SAY IT DONNIE! 2d ago
I loved joe out of the bullpen and that seems like a better spot for him late in his career. He can still be a capable opener, going once through the full lineup in bullpen games or a two late innings bridge guy
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u/MojaveGreen777 SD '84 2d ago edited 2d ago
AJ likes to shotgun deals to second chance guys and flameouts. You pick up lemons like Giolito and Canning, but Buehler and France were on cheap prove it deals and we probably don’t make the playoffs without either of them. This year, in addition to keeping King and Pivetta (assuming theres no inside info about Pivetta’s elbow) I’d like to sign one more decent starter in the 10-15 mil range, and let AJ do his thing and hunt for passed over gems in the bargain bin. As good as Musgrove looked in the playoffs, it was relief and there’s no guarantee his arm is ever going to be up to starting.
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u/KTF-2026 SD 2d ago
Exactly this. King and Pivetta are good enough for SP1 and SP2.
Just need to find good value for SP3. 10-15M buys you a SP4 in FA, hoping Preller gets a little more money to get someone that is a durable, mid-high 3 ERA SP.
Randy + reclamation projects is fine for SP4 + 5. Usually at least one cheap signing hits every season, in 2026 it was Buehler.
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u/KTF-2026 SD 2d ago
I'd have to disagree with Cassavell in the last part. Still assuming too much from injury-prone pitchers. Need to learn lesson from last season so we don't go into trade deadline needing to acquire 2 rental SPs that are hit-or-miss.
Pitchers need the offseason to get the Niebla boost.
Only safe assumption is Randy being SP4. Two full seasons of high-3 ERA is a good track record.
Pivetta maybe gives you half-a-year of starts, try to load manage so he is available end of season into the playoffs, if we make it and if there is even a season.
Assume you get nothing from Sycuan, Darvish, or Sears.
So we need 3.5 SPs. King would be the best fit for the top of the rotation. You can get the next SP5 (the next Buehler) from the scrapheap on a minor league deal. So just find the cheapest mid-rotation SP in FA that is durable, not HR-prone, and has average or better command.
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u/Nunyabiz_327 2d ago
I agree, you have to assume nothing from Darvish, Musgrove and Sears.
I do think there's a better than average chance we see Musgrove though, based on the teams confidence to put him on the post season roster, he must be showing them something pretty significant.
Darvish, I honestly don't want back. He's 41, hasn't pitched in a couple years and wasn't great the last two seaosnas he did pitch. I like the guy, but time to move on.
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u/KTF-2026 SD 2d ago
Musgrove will give us innings. But team can't assume it'll be a full starter workload or even replacement-level production. If he just can't recover between outings, they'll have to find a piggyback or make him a multi-inning reliever.
Darvish is a very honorable person. It's his career and his decision on whether he wants to come back. But I think he only does it if he thinks he is 100% and can help the team. Otherwise he'll just stay on the restricted list to forfeit his salary, and then retire his last year on contract.
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u/HeavensentLXXI I Just Not Giving a Fuck 2d ago
It's all speculation until we see how much we actually open our wallet and spend. We'll learn a lot about our new owners very soon and see whether or not they have the stomach to win.
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u/Joe6268Cool 1d ago
Darvish must go. Musgrove looked good in the playoffs; a little stamina strengthening and I'm certain he can come close, if not back to his usual form. Vasquez is a must! I would welcome King back into the starting lineup, but if he goes, he goes.
Here's the thing that I think a lot of folks miss. The new trend in the MLB is to save money on starters and bulk up the bullpen. King, for example, is $58 million over two years. How many quality bullpen pitchers can you purchase for that amount of money? Two? Three? Four? It's a trend I see all across the majors. Starting pitching is starting to become less relevant.
With that said, I'd like to keep Ray. Too many walks from the guy, but the staff can work those kinks out. Pivetta somehow seemed frail(?) toward the end. I'm worried for him. When he's on, he's great.
So, Musgrove, Vasquez, and Ray - yeah, those three are a must. It is time to bring up the youngsters from the minors. Or, hear me out, go fishing for youth in free agency.
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u/Wumbo619 🥦 LET’S FUCKING GO SAN DIEGO! 7h ago
A lot of respect to King for saying with Marty Caswell, that 3 seasons in, and this team hasn't advanced past the Divisional round.
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u/12345burrito Friar 1d ago
Am I the only who weirdly still has some hope in Robbie Ray? It’s funny cause I still want Casey Mize out but Ray for some reason I would be fine with keeping on a cheap “prove it” deal.
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u/Acrobatic-Resolve627 Slam Diego 2d ago
I think the padres should resign king for around 4 or 5 years and 100-115 mil, he may give the padres a hometown discount cuz he loves it here
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u/ajrivera365 2d ago
King has to come back. No questions. Pay the man.