r/Padres • u/No-Drop-8802 • 3d ago
Analysis How Will Padres' GM AJ Preller Approach Free Agency This Coming Offseason? [Spotrac]
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u/SDFriar Save No Bullets 3d ago
Unrestricted Free Agents
- LHP Adrian Morejon… Try to compete against the rest of the league to sign
- LHP Robbie Ray… Only if it’s as a prove it deal
- RHP Walker Buehler… Try to be competitive but don’t let other teams get us in a bidding war
- RHP Jason Adam… Try a reasonable deal but we have guys to replace him if bidding gets high
- RHP Casey Mize… Only as a prove it deal
- 1B Ty France… Try to compete against the rest of the league to sign. Really should keep but if bidding gets crazy, we don’t know if this year was an aberration. He does want to stay though so might get a discount
- OF Ramon Laureano… Try to be competitive but don’t let other teams get us in a bidding war
- OF Austin Hays… Only if minor league contract
- INF Luis Rengifo… Not listed but I’d like to see them go after him again on a reasonable deal
Mutual Options
- RHP Lucas Giolito ($8 million)… Up to what Niebla sees in him
- RHP Griffin Canning ($5 million)… That’s cheap enough to give him more time
- IF/OF Miguel Andujar ($8 million)… Doubt he takes it but we should try.
Club Options
- RHP Nick Pivetta ($14 million)… Don’t waste a second, pick it up now
- LHP Kyle Hart ($2.5 million)… Chump change for a guy who’s shown flashes of what he could be, keep him
Player Options
- LHP Wandy Peralta ($4.5 million)… Not bad for long relief who can sometimes be shutdown. Probably don’t go double that if other teams are bidding.
Opt-Outs
- RHP Michael King ($28 million)… Give him what he wants. He probably mostly wants more years and has said he would like to stay, so hopefully something can be worked out
- LHP Yuki Matsui ($6.5 million)… Try to compete against the rest of the league to sign. Keeping Morejon increases chances of keeping Matsui and vice versa
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u/KTF-2026 SD 3d ago
Mutual options are almost always declined. For those 3 guys, the club should decline all 3 as those are overpays given their poor 2026 seasons.
100% sure Wandy opts in to 4.5M. I mean he opted into a similar salary last offseason coming off a much better '25 season.
I think King gets 5 years between 125-150M. Perfectly reasonable so it's up to the owners to approve.
Yuki is a tossup, but I think he opts in. I don't think other teams are buying the career year due to his high walk rate, and he can opt out again next offseason if he proves 2026 wasn't a fluke.
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u/faulkners_ashtray Inga from Sveden 2d ago
with all due respect, the thought of signing any of Mize / Canning / Giolito is insane to me. it's not just the money spent, it's the opportunity cost of having any of them in the rotation blocking other would-be starters. i would pay money to not have them on the team.
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u/rockoblocko SD 10h ago
Mize had a fantastic pre-padres season. Depending on the contract it could be good.
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u/Weak-Bonus-5954 サンディエゴ侍 3d ago
Really want a scary LHH to put between tatis and manny. Would love to have ownership pick up schwarbers contract if phillies tear down, or shell out for Sato
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u/Automatic-Push-8045 3d ago
You seek Seiya Suzuki.
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u/Weak-Bonus-5954 サンディエゴ侍 3d ago
Ill certainly take him but I want a big lefty bat. Even though we have merrill and salas, we could use someone more dangerous and reliable for the 2 spot
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u/hate_to_hate Trevor Hoffman 3d ago
Schwarber is not that.
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u/Weak-Bonus-5954 サンディエゴ侍 3d ago
Hes certainly dangerous, will make guys pitch to Tatis more than Merill
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u/rockoblocko SD 10h ago
You want a scary lefty hitter to try to force the opposing team to bring in a lefty pitcher.
Except historically Tatis, Machado, and France hit lefties WORSE than righties.
I guess a lefty could help crush righties which we see so many of in general.
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u/KTF-2026 SD 3d ago
Keep: King, Morejon, France, Pivetta (exercise club option), Yuki (likely opt-in), Wandy (certainly opt-in)
Release: Mize, Ray, Giolito, Canning, Hays, Andujar, Hart
Indifferent: Adam, Laureano, Buehler
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u/signal_empath SD 3d ago
That is a ton of work to do on assembling the next pitching staff. Similar issue to last season though I guess but AJ never really ended up fixing it, the offense bailed us out in the second half. But come playoff time, pitching is the difference maker for teams.
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u/thekatatopeth NO NO JOE 3d ago
I completely forgot we had Lucas Giolito
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u/Simodine- 3d ago
You have the wish list.
Keeping king, morejon, France and Matsui.
You have the would be fine with return list. Adam, Walker and Laureano.
The rest can go.
Then you have the holes list pending any of the above.
1-2 lefty relievers
2 starters at least one that could start a front of the rotation guys
LF
1b
2b (could be tatis, likely cronenworth)
Bench seems decent atm with Harris, Taylor, Catcher…some other choices like song. Prob need to add one or two more. Would love cronenworth to fit here.
So 7-8 need to be added. Some of which maybe resigned.
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u/autumnbreeznleaves 2d ago
Pivetta, Yuki, and Wandy likely return. I could see AJ resigning 1 of either of King or Morejon depending on how much they are asking.
I would let all the rest leave and if any are still looking for a cheap contract in March maybe make an offer. Buehler and France were nice stories in 2026, but I don't think either comes close to repeating their 2026 seasons. They feel like Profar in 2024 and Nick Martinez in 2022. Don't overpay for a career year.
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u/Norman_Maclean 2d ago
Here's how I see this playing out:
Position players:
* There's too much mutual interest in Ty France / Padres reunion. I imagine he'll get something like $10-11M AAV for 2 years or something.
* Outfielders....Laureano...maybe. But I just see AJ being so consistently interested in Luis Robert (who will likely be an UFA) that I feel like he gets the Andujar deal this year. I also feel like SD would be interested in trading for Jurickson Profar (with ATL eating all but $1M of his contract).
* Infielders: I think Rengifo is gone, but Ha Seong Kim comes back on a 1 year, $4M deal after two poor seasons.
Pitchers:
* King is really the whole offseason priority. They need him back.
* Pivetta is a no-brainer if his elbow is healthy. If not, they can't risk that kind of money on a prayer, and should concentrate on bringing Robbie Ray back or chasing someone like Shane Bieber for a little more. Really bringing in 2 of these 3 would be a big boost for the rotation (and they probably need that boost), but a lot depends on what Yu Darvish is planning on doing.
* I don't think there should be any urgency on Buehler. I could just as easily see someone like Zac Gallen or John Means coming in as the 2027 Walker Buehler. Or simply have Vazquez / Sears fill that role. Buehler was barely above replacement level, same as Vazquez.
* Morejon is gone. Time to accept that.
* I would expect Yuki and Wandy to opt-in on their deals and stick around.
* I personally wouldn't bring back Jason Adam unless it's below $8M or something. There are a ton of live arms looking to bounce back that likely won't command top of market $ (Strahm, Abreu, Puk etc).
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u/No-Drop-8802 2d ago
Kim returning to the Padres will be sick. Just like the Profar reunion.
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u/Annoyingkeming 1d ago
I"m struggling to understand why we'd want either of those two back. Profar especially with the PEDs and Kim just being bad. I'd be interested in hearing the potential positives of those two coming back aside from vibes.
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u/Automatic-Push-8045 3d ago
King, Morejon, Seiya Suzuki. Let’s ride