I'm sure most of us have seen the news about the 24 team playoff. For the record, I hate it because it's completely unnecessary and will be used to prop up underachieving B1G/SEC teams rather than represent all of CFB with more G6 teams. However, I do think some of the concerns about 9-3, 8-4, or even 7-5 teams are a bit overblown. Let's simulate what the 24 team playoff would look like by looking at the penultimate CFP rankings from 2024 and 2025, as news has broken that conference championship games will be eliminated. We don't have any information yet on how conference autobids would work or how auto-byes would work, but it wouldn't hurt to assume that the P4 + one G6 will get autobids and the top 8 teams will get a bye.
For 2024 (bear in mind these rankings didn't use the new SOS metric, and several conferences still playing 8 conference games)
First round:
17. Clemson (9-3) @ 16. Iowa State (10-2)
18. BYU (10-2) @ 15. Arizona State (10-2)
19. Missouri (9-3) @ 14. South Carolina (9-3)
20. UNLV (10-2) @ 13. Ole Miss (9-3)
21. Illinois (9-3) @ 12. Miami (10-2)
22. Syracuse (9-3) @ 11. Alabama (9-3)
23. Colorado (9-3) @ 10. Boise State (11-1)
24. Army (10-1)* @ 9. Indiana (11-1)
Second Round:
17-16 winner @ 1. Oregon (12-0)
18-15 winner @ 2. Texas (11-1)
19-14 winner @ 3. Penn State (11-1)
20-13 winner @ 4. Notre Dame (11-1)
21-12 winner @ 5. Georgia (10-2)
22-11 winner @ 6. Ohio State (10-2)
23-10 winner @ 7. Tennessee (10-2)
24-9 winner @ 8. SMU (11-1)
Total Tally:
ACC: 4, BXII: 4, B1G: 5, SEC: 7 (20 P4), MWC: 2, AAC: 1 (3 P6), ND. 8/24 teams are 3 loss teams.
2025:
First round:
17. Virginia (10-2) @ 16. USC (9-3)
18. Arizona (9-3) @ 15. Utah (10-2)
19. Michigan (9-3) @ 14. Vanderbilt (10-2)
20. Tulane (10-2) @ 13. Texas (9-3)
21. Houston (10-2) @ 12. Miami (10-2)
22. Georgia Tech (9-3) @ 11. BYU (11-1)
23. Iowa (8-4) @ 10. Notre Dame (10-2)
24. North Texas (11-1) @ 9. Alabama (10-2)
Second Round:
17-16 winner @ 1. Ohio State (12-0)
18-15 winner @ 2. Indiana (12-0)
19-14 winner @ 3. Georgia (11-1)
20-13 winner @ 4. Texas Tech (11-1)
21-12 winner @ 5. Oregon (11-1)
22-11 winner @ 6. Ole Miss (11-1)
23-10 winner @ 7. Texas A&M (11-1)
24-9 winner @ 8. Oklahoma (10-2)
Total Tally:
ACC: 3, BXII: 5, B1G: 6, SEC: 7 (21 P4), AAC: 2 (2 P6), ND. 1/24 teams are 4 loss, 5/24 teams are 3 loss.
So as you can see, the conference makeup of the playoff definitely can vary a bit, but I think it's fair to expect that while we will see some 3 loss teams and on a rare occasional a 4 loss team, it likely won't be just giving out playoff spots to 8-4 or god forbid 7-5 SEC teams like candy. The G6 will get representation, and those 11-1 or 10-2 BXII or ACC teams aren't going to get shafted in favor of a 9-3 Alabama or a 10-2 OSU. OSU, assuming Day keeps us at this current level of performance and keels delivering 10-2 to 12-0 seasons, will never miss the playoffs again.