r/NewYorkMets • u/TheAthletic • 2d ago
Analysis [Britton] How would a salary cap hamstring the Mets? What kind of team can they build at different budgets?
The Mets could plausibly field a 26-man big-league roster if the season started tomorrow.
That, however, isn’t an ideal roster, and it already costs the Mets about $243 million in salary and $270 million against the luxury tax. The Mets’ primary needs entering the winter are, in some order:
- A frontline starting pitcher
- Another mid-rotation starting pitcher
- A first baseman who preferably hits from the right side
- A fourth outfielder who preferably hits from the right side
- Between one and three high-leverage relievers
We’re going to look at a few diverse scenarios, starting with one that is very unlikely to happen. These are meant to be pretty broad looks at each price point. While Tim Britton provides specific players within, that’s basically to make it tangible. The vitally important trade market this winter hasn’t come into much focus. As such, the suggestions are generally in pencil.
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u/FrankArmhead 2d ago
1) it’s not going to happen
2) if it ever does, it’ll be phased in so MLB doesn’t unduly damage its most valuable franchises in LA and the Bronx
3) Biggest “fixes” that would help the Mets
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u/Ok-Stretch1022 2d ago
Oddly enough I feel a cap would help the Mets.
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u/otter_pop_n_lock Mets Cap Logo 2 2d ago
Helped the New York Rangers when the NHL implemented a salary cap. Made Sather curb his spending. Instead of constantly throwing out huge contracts to aging players he only occasionally threw out huge contracts to aging players.
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u/Schwettes 22 2d ago
Stearns is better suited for a small market and a spending cap would force him to be more intentional about who he overpays
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u/traded99 2d ago
We’re not getting a salary cap. The MLBPA is not budging on that. Also, not interested in seeing teams like marlins, athletics, pirates take on the end of bad contracts just to get to the cap floor. It won’t suddenly make them competitive or competent. Instead they should figure out what makes the rays and guardians so good or spend more money wisely.
Payroll doesn’t mean shit unless you know how to spend It right. The Mets have proved that.
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u/TobycooklynNY 2d ago
Thanks so much for articulating this. It’s why the owners are full of nonsense. People honestly believe guys like Nutting who has a 100m$ payroll for first time ever will increase his spending 50%?
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u/Schwettes 22 2d ago
Well if there’s a floor, he would have to. And it would be easy to do so as well with revenue sharing.
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u/TobycooklynNY 2d ago
There is revenue sharing, bro. Pirates receive about 70m$ of it. How’s that working?
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u/Prestigious_Money447 New York Mets 1d ago edited 1d ago
Just looking at the other league, salary caps and floors are great for the owners. The Timberwolves have gone up in value 3x in four years. This is because it fixes costs as a percentage of league revenue, it controls a cost that is right now variable.
edit: we saw with the Gnats, one reason why they were hesitant to give Juan Soto a long term deal was because they were planning to sell the team (which did not go through), and a huge contract like that would meaningfully lower the value of the team. The baseball salary structure hurts the valuation of these ballclubs. With NFL, NHL, and NBA the costs are 100% locked in moving forward, at least until the next CBA. No doubt this is the major reason why owners want a cap.
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u/Prestigious_Money447 New York Mets 1d ago
any sort of salary cap and floor will likely be phased in over a period of years to let teams at the higher and lower end adjust without distorting the market too much. without a phase in, you see crazy stuff like how the Warriors were able to bring in Kevin Durant to a 73 win team.
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u/KosmicTom Mrs. Met 1d ago
Pay everyone a dollar for the year and defer the rest. If Manfred has any questions, tell him to give Mark Walter a call.
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u/Clipbored_ 2d ago
If we get a salary cap (we won't) the Mets are absolutely fucked. They can't even make a wildcard team with unlimited funds lmfao
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u/Huge_District366 2d ago
I think a lot of fans who can’t see past this season (which appears to be a lot of this fanbase) will read this as they’re fucked but the number of good rookies they have on cheap contracts they’ll eventually be fine.
A salary cap isn’t happening anyway so it’s a moot point. But Mets fans gotta stop basing their whole view of the future of the team off of this season
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u/Blue387 Friendly Unhinged Moderator 2d ago
I mention rookies and prospects in the minors and player development and avoiding bad contracts but fans don't care, they want big man hit ball
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u/SecretiveMop David Wright 2d ago
Maybe it’s less so that we don’t care and more so that we’ve been hearing about prospects being saviors over and over for years now?
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u/lilleff512 Forever my Captain 2d ago
When was the last time the Mets had a group of rookies who were as good as McLean, Benge, and Ewing?
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u/SecretiveMop David Wright 2d ago
There might be some that match, I’d have to go back and look. But that doesn’t negate the fact that people have been talking about prospects as saviors for years only for them to fizzle out.
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u/lilleff512 Forever my Captain 2d ago
My point is that there are always going to be people talking about prospects, but you rarely see them pan out the way that we just saw this year. I get that it might be a "boy who cried wolf" situation, but we have real wolves now.
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u/Huge_District366 2d ago
Benge is like the best all around positional prospect since wright. Anyone who watched a game this year could see that.
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u/SecretiveMop David Wright 2d ago
Where did I say otherwise?
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u/Huge_District366 2d ago
The comment above where you say your prospects aren’t saviors (shows a general lack of understanding about baseball if you think prospects are saviors for sny franchise)
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u/NuanceManExe 2d ago
Fans want Mets team play well. Not like we’re avoiding bad contracts. We have terrible contracts, long and short. The fans have no reason to be happy with the Mets.
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u/lilleff512 Forever my Captain 2d ago
What terrible long term contracts do the Mets have?
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u/datfuckingfoley 19h ago
Hate to say it. But Soto. Those deals don't age well. He's a solid player but there's 13 years left.
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u/thissiteneedoversite New York Mets 2d ago
I do get a little sick of this fanbase when they act like other teams should trade us their best players for Vientos and Baty, like it's so easy to get a Yordan Alvarez
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u/myassholealt F8 2d ago
Yes, fans want the silver slugger who gives you 162 games, minimum 35 HRs (40+ if he's healthy all year), and a ton of doubles. They're so silly.
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u/millagger New York Mets 1d ago
Six seasons from the GOD STEVE COHEN two postseasons man you really think the issue is in the fanbase not looking to the future? Maybe is that this owner and this gm can't provide us a good future.
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u/Huge_District366 1d ago
Given that he hasn’t had this GM his whole tenure and has tried patching together teams with short term deals for old guys maybe idk give the current one a little patience? I know player development and team building aren’t necessarily things fans who go season by season like you do care about but a lot more successful teams than ours certainly do
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u/millagger New York Mets 1d ago
Why we should have patience if the owner promised a world series in the first five seasons? He's a fucking con artist. How can you trust Strearns with a rebuild when he brought in Semien, Polanco, Peralta that shocking now is good, Bichette, Robert pretty much anything that actually meant spending money has been abysmal from this guy. We have THREE players on the roster with a negative war over one and yet you want to trust.
The issue never was retooling the core that pretty much failed in a decade outside a few good seasons. The issue is that the gm can't build a roster here maybe he can in Milwaukee or maybe he just can't and the Brewers and proving they can be good with anybody working there.
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u/Huge_District366 1d ago
The reason they have to sign those guys is because overgrown manchildren fans such as yourself don’t have patience. Semien and Polanco aren’t gonna be on the team after this season so they can be buried for good players this year anyway. We have 3 ROY vote getters and plenty of other good guys on the way. They’re able to have that because they got rid of a terrible old core that didn’t win anything (the guys who cohen promised would win a World Series with but they failed because they weren’t as good as fans thought they were just because they were “homegrown”).
Also if you wanna bitch about cohen just start saying you want wilpons back so we can laugh you off as the clown you are
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u/millagger New York Mets 1d ago
Yes that's right it's my fault we have the worst salary situation in baseball not David Stearns or the owner. My bad !
Who the fuck is going to ever be nice about the pieces of shit of the Wilpon family? Man the only hope we had for years was the Wilpons selling and now that's gone because Cohen was that hope and he will never sell. He has failed on the field to this fanbase but none of that will never matter because he will always be worshiped since he's not the Wilpons. We deserve a good team we deserve postseason baseball we are nowhere near a functional franchise with this guy at the top.
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u/NuanceManExe 2d ago
I can see past this season just fine. The Mets have a lot of work to do. You guys gotta stop this man. Just makes the discourse here worse and worse. Maybe the Mets will be good next year. Maybe not. No one is stupid or short sighted for questioning this organization. The Mets certainly haven’t earned that and they’ve been making far too many mistakes.
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u/Huge_District366 2d ago
They have 3 ROY vote getters this year and got longterm bad contracts off the books. Thats where they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt
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u/Clipbored_ 2d ago
They have three seasons over 80 wins in the past six. It’s not just this season.
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u/Blue387 Friendly Unhinged Moderator 2d ago
The Mets drafted terribly since Alonso in 2016 and traded away the few prospects they had, notably PCA and Jarred Kelenic if you want to be generous. It was a bad foundation and it wasn't until the Stearns draft in 2024 that has bore fruit with Carson Benge.
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u/OatFest Michael Conforto 2d ago
There are quite a few guys on the current active roster from pre-Stearns drafts. They certainly had some dud drafts but I think “drafting terribly” is a bit hyperbolic with guys like McLean, Ewing, Scott, Thornton, etc. currently on the roster and trending up
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u/lilleff512 Forever my Captain 2d ago
Development is more important than drafting, particularly once you get past the first round.
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u/OatFest Michael Conforto 2d ago
I agree, but there’s something to be said about drafting players with qualities that you know your specific PD system can maximize the potential of.
To clarify, this isn’t me taking a stance on which era of drafting was better. I just think saying everything in the 8 years before Stearns was “terrible” is a bit revisionist.
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u/atoms12123 Field reporter eye candy 2d ago
We basically got no value out of the 2017-2021 drafts.
Peterson, Baty, Vientos are the only ones to make any impact on the Mets, and then there was PCA. We got trade value for some rentals, but very little long term help on the team.
Scott looks good, but I have to imagine (And I'll pull the data later) that we're towards the bottom of MLB teams in terms of draft value in that period.
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u/Huge_District366 2d ago
Because they spent on old guys, once the farm that was destroyed by former GMs (because that’s what happens when you fire GMs all the time) is developed, they’ll be in a much better spot
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u/NuanceManExe 2d ago
It’s more like they spent money on bad guys, let good guys walk and we’re too afraid to go hard for any external good guys other than Soto and Yamamoto
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u/Weaverbenever 2d ago
I agree that the cap isn't happening so the point is moot, but I would like to see us spend more intelligently moving forward. We can't pay a $20m AAV to a first baseman with one professional inning of experience there and little track record of staying healthy. That's a waste of money even if you have unlimited money.
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u/JA_MD_311 Mr. Met 2d ago
Mets big contracts, except for Lindor and Soto, are all up no later than 2028. After this year, Manaea, Polanco, and Senga are all up. Semien and Williams the year after.
They’re actually well positioned for a cap and I think it’s one reason Stearns has been hellbent on not going long term with almost anyone.
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u/HundleyC09 2d ago
This is just speculation on my part but I feel that's why they have built the roster the way they have is only giving out very small amounts of long-term contracts because I'm sure they knew this was going to be some sort of possibility
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u/JA_MD_311 Mr. Met 2d ago
Agreed. Even if there isn’t a hard cap, there will likely be more stringent penalties for high spending.
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u/millagger New York Mets 1d ago
Yeah sure that the reason and not the players choosing other franchises.
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u/NuanceManExe 2d ago edited 2d ago
That would mean we intentionally pissed away the prime of Alonso and Lindor and probably 3 years of Soto’s prime. I’d say that’s a questionable strategy. EDIT: Oh and we wasted a 6 year window of taking advantage of Cohen’s money. Look man maybe the Mets fucked up, just a little bit lol
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u/lilleff512 Forever my Captain 2d ago
That would mean we intentionally pissed away the prime of Alonso and Lindor
Not at all. They went very hard trying to win in 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2025. The only year where they didn't have a big offseason was 2024 and that was because 2023 was such a disaster that they felt they needed a reset. Then 2024 went so well that they basically abandoned the reset anyway.
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u/JA_MD_311 Mr. Met 2d ago
Cohen would tell you he didn’t do well in his early window. They spent like drunken sailors and yeah 2022 was great but we have town playoff appearances, no divisions, and no WS during this tenure.
I’m fine with getting to a place where you can use the financial might when it’s more advantageous.
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u/BubblySmell4079 2d ago
I agree, but IF the MLBPA fell for the cap, there also would be a floor. All those small market teams would need to get there which means players like Polanco, Semien, Senga could be in play in trades so they become compliant.
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u/LennyLongLegs 2d ago
There's definitely better free agents out there to spend money on. Or they can throw extensions at their best pre-FA players to increase their AAV while buying out FA years. The MLB draft is nowhere near enough of a sure thing to actively throw away money you have to spend
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u/BubblySmell4079 2d ago
Your 3rd sentence makes no sense. The small market teams ARE NOT going to fight for a salary cap and then punt the salary floor and take any draft violations. The proposed 2027 floor is 171 million, about 1/3 of the league is a 100 million below that.
I mentioned an option that those teams had. I still think a salary cap won't happen anyways.
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u/LennyLongLegs 2d ago
I think we agree? I was trying to make a comparison to the NHL where some teams often take on bad contracts to actively tank when they're not very competitive so they make the salary floor. I think in baseball the draft is not as much of a sure thing so with a salary floor the small market teams would spend as much as they have to to make it but would try to do so by making their team as good as they can. If they have to spend another 100 mill anyways might as well sign some good players and see if that turns out to be enough to make the playoffs. And yes fully agreed its not going to happen
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u/Prestigious_Money447 New York Mets 1d ago edited 1d ago
in the NBA, an expiring contract is a very valuable thing for just this reason. bad teams will take on a contract that expires in a year or two to add short term salary in exchange for picks.
You are correct that the picks you would get in exchange for taking on a bad contract don’t have the same value they would in the NBA, though. so I don’t think there will be many situations where teams take on an old guy for picks. but they may take them in for other reasons - hell the Mets made such a trade this year.
I think that there may be short term chaos where lower spending teams will want those types of garbage overpaid players, but I think it will also level out over time. you will see teams like the Reds or A’s doing thing things like signing Yamamoto to $27M/y contracts but that’s the point of the cap.
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u/myassholealt F8 2d ago
It may stop "Uncle Steve" from getting his new expensive free agent toy every offseason. But I think Stearns would love it cause he would have mire freedom to build his small market team of farm guys, fringe players he bets on, and the occasional splash spend. But Soto and Lindor probably makes that splash spend unneeded in his eyes.
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u/ekins1992 2d ago
Rays and Milwaukee have some of the lowest payrolls in baseball and they are both buzzsaws
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u/Schwettes 22 2d ago
Should be easy to get under the cap if you get rid of all the washed guys. Polanco, Lindor, Semien, Manaea, Senga.
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u/jds560 2d ago
Marcus Semen, Devin Williams, Francisco Lindor, Jorge Polanco and Bo Bichette can go. Couldn't care less about any of them and they make too much for what they are.
Manaea is on the last year of his deal and can eat some innings as a 4th or 5th starter. Soto isn't going anywhere until his opt out and Senga showed some signs of life as a closer. Those are the only three people making over 10 million id retain.
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u/Sh11ester 2d ago
You really just said "keep Manaea, get rid of Lindor" as a serious take.
This is a perfect reason why the front office doesn't give a fuck about our feelings or opinions
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u/futhatsy Don't Call My Name 2d ago
I think a lot you guys would be pretty surprised at what the current front office thinks of Lindor at the moment.
He's going to be 33 next year. He's now in a 3 year decline both offensively and defensively. Last year, he was a league average hitter that was barely passable at short. Any further decline is going to be a pretty serious problem. And he still has 5 years left on the contract.
He's banked enough good seasons that the contract as a whole is going to work out fine. But if this front office could move on from that deal right now, they would. This front office has already made it clear that they don't give a fuck about pissing off the fanbase by getting rid of their favorites and this was not a contract they signed.
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u/Sh11ester 2d ago
Last year he had a broken hammate bone that affected his swing and a calf injury he missed 2 months with. He put up 5 WAR the season prior. Chill
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u/futhatsy Don't Call My Name 2d ago
Yeah, players tend to get injured more as they age. It's part of declining.
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u/HundleyC09 2d ago
How would you have any idea what the front office thinks of Lindor? You have no idea what you're talking about and you're just basing this off of your feelings
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u/futhatsy Don't Call My Name 2d ago
I like Lindor. This has nothing to do with my feelings. It's just common sense for how this front office opperates. If anything, I'd argue the folks who do not think this front office would ever let Lindor go are the ones thinking with their hearts instead of their minds.
Last trade deadline, the Mets leaked five names that were completely untouchable: Soto, McLean, Ewing, Benge, and Christian Scott. The fact that they did not feel the need to include Lindor in that is telling.
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u/Prestigious_Money447 New York Mets 1d ago
people don’t want to hear this but it’s true.
this FO didn’t want to give Pete Alonso five years thinking he will be bad in four years when he is 35… what do they think about Lindor declining at 33 let alone 37.
i think Stearns cares way too much about this shit for a big market GM, but he is the GM.
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u/jds560 2d ago
Lindor is on a rapid decline and is a clubhouse cancer. He's costing the team 150 million in the next 5 years. That money buys a quality starter.
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u/Original-Paint2239 2d ago
He’s like the most liked dude in the MLB?
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u/jds560 2d ago
Thumbs downing the fans? Fighting with McNeil? Forcing the FO to trade for Baez? Comical response.
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u/Annual_Assistant_443 2d ago
The fans deserved it, McNeil deserved it even more, he didn't force them to trade for Baez. Comical response.
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u/Prestigious_Money447 New York Mets 1d ago
he didn’t force them, I agree, but he did push for it and spoke highly of Baez publicly. turned into one of the worst trades in MLB history.
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u/Original-Paint2239 2d ago
Literally the only fanbase that has members that want to shed an all time great future HOFer
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u/HundleyC09 2d ago
I think if there's ever a salary cap there's going to have to be a slow transition into a salary cap because there's no way that you can expect certain teams to somehow shed tons of money quickly without some sort of amnesty or something