r/NewYorkMets • u/Ok_Egg328 • 4d ago
Analysis The Mets Player Whose Trade Value May Never Be Higher (And Why They Shouldn't Trade Him)
https://www.si.com/mlb/mets/onsi/mets-player-whose-trade-value-may-never-be-higher-why-shouldnt-trade-him-01m4gkb29ry8After Zac Thornton's impressive rookie season, I think there's an interesting argument that his trade value may never be higher.
I wrote about why the Mets could consider selling high on him, but also why I think they'd be making a mistake doing so.
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u/Disgusting_Casual 3d ago
We need more homegrown arms. We need more homegrown arms. I’m going to go blue in the face repeating this line to myself. If Thornton stabilizes at a 4-5, you still hold on to him because that’s a great outcome. We have not had enough starter stability.
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u/Ok_Egg328 3d ago
And I can't argue with that at all. Pitching is key, as the playoffs continue to show year after year. However, realistically, not every young starter will pan out, so sometimes it makes sense to capitalize on a player's value while it's high.
That said, I came away impressed with what I saw from Thornton this season and believe he still has plenty of room to grow, which is why I think the Mets should hold onto him.-3
u/Prestigious_Money447 New York Mets 3d ago
people called David Peterson and Tylor Megill a 4-5 for years... we saw how that worked out. They sucked. Zach Thornton needs to be a lot better than that, hopefully he gets there.
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u/Disgusting_Casual 3d ago
They had been exactly career 4/5 starters with career eras in the 4s. I obviously want Thornton, Scott, and Tong to reach frontline starter status, but honestly if they all manage to stick it in middle or back end without flaming out, that’s still a positive outcome. We need arms like water. Even the Yankees who bought most of their rotation count on solid homegrown starters.
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u/Darklord_Of_Bacon 2d ago
Peterson and Megill were solid 4-5 guys for a while. But then we needed them to be top 3 rotation guys and they fell off a cliff
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u/Few-Image-3526 2d ago
I'm pretty sure Megill has been on the IL more than he's been healthy over the last four years. That doesn't help much.
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u/Prestigious_Money447 New York Mets 2d ago
if they pitched more innings I would agree with you. Peterson only got over 150IP once. Megill only got over 100IP once. I feel like those back end guys have to be at the least dependable and you can rely on them throughout the year.
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u/Darklord_Of_Bacon 2d ago
Average for a 4/5 guy is between 120-140 IP so, at least with Peterson that was where he lived
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u/CubanCoast 3d ago
I think any potential trade partner probably still values him as a back end starter at best because of regression indicators and lack of prospect pedigree.
A cheap back end starter is still valuable tho, but frankly I’d be happier keeping a good high floor option on my team if I can.
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u/Dexamethasone1 3d ago
But he's not an option, he should be part of the starting rotation, he's earned it. He should start the season as the 5th starter as a minimum, depending upon who else the Mets sign or trade for. Even starting the season as #5 starter, I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes the season higher in the rotation.
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u/NuanceManExe 3d ago
Thornton has prospect pedigree though. He was a solid prospect expected to be a backend starter. That has value. And this year he showed he has the potential for more. He’s a good fit for the Mets right now. Plus I bet you he’s got a chip on his shoulder and will be motivated to prove people wrong. I’d rather a young player have that mentality than the mentality a guy like say Jazz Chisholm has.
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u/Unlockpentoman Mr. cum 3d ago
Why are we even discussing trading Thornton? He’s grown talent from the vine and we fucking wanna trade him? Not saying OP is saying that but why is that even a convo
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u/Ok_Egg328 3d ago
For the reasons I outlined in the article, he's definitely a regression candidate entering next season, as several key metrics suggest. Sometimes it's better to capitalize on a player's value if you're uncertain about their long-term outlook. That said, I agree with you that the Mets should hold onto him. I'd only entertain trading Thornton if they could get a high-end starter with multiple years of control in return.
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u/BrooklynTerrier 3d ago
Mets fans are a interesting bunch , always the general consensus that this team needs more young talent & young players. Thornton ends up showing he can be a credible starter so let’s just ship him off
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u/Rugbysmartarse 3d ago
Zac Thornton is Zac Thornton, but a good draft pick could be anything. It could even be the next Zac Thornton
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u/Ok_Egg328 3d ago
Well, of course I don't think they should ship him off for nothing. In fact, I still don't think they should trade him at all. The point of the article was to explore the possibility of selling high on Thornton because he isn't necessarily a high-ceiling pitcher and is a regression candidate entering next season. While you always want all of your homegrown players to pan out, the reality is that not all of them will. That's why you have to be selective about which players you believe can be key pieces of the team's future.
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u/legitirony 2d ago
This is ignorant, nobody is saying to trade our good young players. One look at Zac Thortons savant page will show that there are huge underlying issues, it’s reasonable that theres a legitimate discussion about trading him. I would not trade him for the same reasons in the article, but I would understand if the FO did. Look at Vientos, he had a fantastic 2024 with horrible underlying metrics and was pretty much a top 3 regression candidate in the league. He has since been -1.5 WAR. I would hope u actually have something to contribute to this discussion rather than a snarky remark that shows u know nothing about what is being discussed.
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u/My_Penbroke 3d ago
“Now that this stock is sitting at an all-time high after its IPO 6 months ago, there’s a possibility that its value may never be higher than it is now.”
Sure. Or maybe it’s Amazon.
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u/fhoobs2 3d ago
I'm not trading him unless the other team wants to overpay. And I mean overpay.
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u/Ok_Egg328 3d ago
And that’s a totally fair take. I just thought that this was an interesting topic to bring up
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u/pm-me-nice-lips 3d ago
Wait til you guys get familiar with Daviel Hurtado in our minor league system. Been really really good for 2 years now and he is similar where he’s a lefty who doesn’t throw exceptionally hard. He creates soft contact and tons of grounders…all to a .189 BAA this year in High A. Throws a gyro slider and an 80mph curve with an avg speed 4-seam. Very good command too. He’s my sleeper to be a very very serviceable MLB pitcher for a long time. Prob see him in 2028 though.
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u/BillW87 Animal Facts 2d ago
He's a prime regression target, but he looked legit enough that regression is likely to a number 4-5 starter rather than a MIRP or AAAA/depth starter. Trading away cost controlled, optionable 4-5 starter while trying to build a competing roster would be a head scratcher.
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u/srv340mike Mike Piazza 3d ago
Nah. The only reason to trade any of the rookies is for a proven big leaguer under team control at a friendly contract.
This is not a win now team and we should not be trading from our prospect depth.
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u/Prestigious_Money447 New York Mets 3d ago
if it's not a win-now team they should trade Juan Soto and Lindor then
of course that is ridiculous, they should be a win-now team every year.
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u/srv340mike Mike Piazza 3d ago
They should absolutely not be win now every year. They do not have the talent base built up for that and it's not a problem that we can buy our way out of
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u/Ok_Egg328 3d ago
I personally agree that this is a win-now team. The Mets probably only have three more good years of Lindor, and now that they have a great young core around him, this is the time to start making a serious push.
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u/rmullig2 2d ago
Nobody wants either one of those contracts. They are still very good players but the money is too large on both of them.
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u/aloysiusthird 3d ago
I agree with you that this is not a win-now team, but we could actually be in contention if they shed some dead weight and sign Skubal/Sato. I just don't know if that's wise long-term.
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u/srv340mike Mike Piazza 3d ago
It's not. Team needs to build up a solid talent base with prospects first.
If we keep throwing money at the problem and trading young players, we'll never get over the hump. Young players are how you win. Not veterans
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u/aloysiusthird 3d ago
My heart agrees with you, my head adds caveats.
We just need to be smart about development. I think we're in a better place today than 5 years ago. Friedman and the Dodgers have an absolute pipeline that we need here.
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u/SeaworthinessKey3418 3d ago
In late August I said that I’d be willing to sell Thornton for the right price, a lefty SP with 5 years of control can fetch a very good return. This was before the trade deadline prospects that the Mets acquired started to produce. I now think the 2nd & 3rd base prospects could be up in early May or after the ASB and they’ll have a few to choose from and might be able to trade some of the others.
After the Yankees start I want see what he can really become, Green challenge Thornton to put 10-15 lbs of muscle on this offseason so he can get his mph up 2-4 mph more on some of his pitches.
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u/Terrible-Nerve-6819 New York Mets 3d ago
24 yr old homegrown pitcher with talent. So let's trade him.
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u/jglub780 1d ago
It’s a make the playoffs and see what happens team. That being the case you need to do everything you can to make this team better for the next 2-3 seasons while Lindor is still good
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u/_Penis_fingers Francisco Alvarez 3d ago
I agree and thought the same thing about tong at the end of last season. Got downvoted anytime I mentioned it. But I’m only trading Thornton for a proven MLB player. Preferably one with more than 1 year of control left
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u/legitirony 2d ago
The difference is that Tong’s underlyings are way better, and he throws much harder. Tong is not a regression candidate, if anything it’s the opposite and it’s why he got a lot of trade interest and the Mets wont trade him. It doesnt matter what a player has done (Tong hasn’t shown hes consistently good yet), it’s more important to try and predict what they will do for the team next season and advanced stats are much more predictive of that.
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u/_Penis_fingers Francisco Alvarez 1d ago
I think tong will end up being a bullpen piece. He’s a 2 pitch pitcher who hasn’t been able to develop a solid third pitch. That’s why I wanted to trade him last year when his value was highest
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u/Pec5 Grimace 3d ago
believe me, his value is not that high as you protray.
His stuff is mid at best. And he relies in extreme finess to get good results.
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u/Original-Paint2239 2d ago
No lol, he relies on pounding the strike zone and generating either strikeouts or fly outs. That’s why his xERA and other advanced stats don’t like him very much. He basically walks no one too.
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u/suck-it-elon 67 3d ago
Trade Carson Benge and Nolan McLean. We can get a haul for him. Maybe the Yankees would give us Stanton and pay his entire contract?
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u/cytokine7 3d ago
wtf lol
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u/CarlosTruther New York Mets 3d ago
Same guy who posted this lol https://www.reddit.com/r/NewYorkMets/s/nEe4ZculxL
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u/Alectheawesome23 New York Mets 3d ago
There are really only two reasons you’d even entertain doing something like that.
- You’re a team that is going all in to win a World Series and are getting a game changing player in return. Something like Skubal if he had years of control for instance. And this team is not one player away from winning a World Series.
- You want to get younger bc you have no faith in the team being competitive at all in the near future. The perpetual marlins rebuild.
But why would you trade young and controllable talent that has proven they can succeed at the big league level for minor league talent that hasn’t shown that? It feels very unlikely you’d get the quality of these guys back unless you’re just swapping top prospects with another team. And Benge are McLean are young so you’ll still get a lot of good years from them they’re not in their early 30s. Trading them makes no sense
Also why the hell would anyone trade for Stanton rn when he can’t stay on the field and is at the end of his career. If for whatever reason we did trade for him there’s no way it would cost that much.
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u/Born_Manufacturer657 3d ago
Never trade pitchers making minimum wage and that have minor league options. It’s the cardinal rule of armchair GM talks.