1. Minnesota Timberwolves — 41.5%

2. Brooklyn Nets — 40.9%

3. Indiana Pacers — 40.7%

4. Oklahoma City Thunder — 40.3%

5. Washington Wizards — 39.6%

6. Chicago Bulls — 38.9%

7. Miami Heat — 38.8%

8. Orlando Magic — 38.6%

9. Houston Rockets — 38.6%

10. Charlotte Hornets — 38.0%

1. Aday Mara — 2.8
   
2. Myles Turner — 2.7
   
3. Robert Williams III — 2.5
   
4. Donovan Clingan — 2.3
   
5. Andre Drummond — 2.0
   
6. Chris Cenac Jr. — 2.0
   
7. Luka Garza — 2.0
   
8. Moussa Diabate — 2.0
   
9. Tyrese Haliburton — 2.0
   
10. Charles Bassey — 1.8
    
11. Joan Beringer — 1.8

1. Payton Pritchard — 9.0
   
2. Trae Young — 7.7
   
3. Austin Reaves — 7.5
   
4. Nikola Jokic — 7.0
   
5. Josh Giddey — 6.8
   
6. Giannis Antetokounmpo — 6.7
   
7. Jarace Walker — 6.5
   
8. Franz Wagner — 6.0
   
9. Tre Jones — 6.0
   
10. LaMelo Ball — 5.8

​

1. Los Angeles Lakers — 129.3

2. Oklahoma City Thunder — 124.5

3. New York Knicks — 123.5

4. San Antonio Spurs — 122.6

5. Denver Nuggets — 117.4

6. Cleveland Cavaliers — 116.9

7. Milwaukee Bucks — 116.1

8. Philadelphia 76ers — 115.2

9. Golden State Warriors — 115.1

10. Boston Celtics — 112.9

1. Brooklyn Nets — 51.8%
   
2. Portland Trail Blazers — 51.0%
   
3. Indiana Pacers — 48.9%
   
4. Toronto Raptors — 48.9%
   
5. Oklahoma City Thunder — 48.1%
   
6. Minnesota Timberwolves — 48.1%
   
7. Washington Wizards — 47.9%
   
8. Houston Rockets — 47.7%
   
9. Dallas Mavericks — 47.5%
   
10. Denver Nuggets — 47.3%

TL;DR: Tyrese is back. In his last full season he had a 5.6 assist-to-turnover ratio while scoring 18.6 on 61.6% TS, set up more shots per minute on the ball than anyone but Jokić, and the Pacers were +3.5 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor.

In April 2025, Haliburton was the top answer when The Athletic asked 158 NBA players who the league’s most overrated player is. Two months later he was in Game 7 of the Finals. With him back from the Achilles, I pulled the NBA.com data from 2024-25, his last full season.

What the data shows:

• Historic ball security. 5.6 assists per turnover. Among seasons with 7+ assists a game, only Tyus Jones (‘24, 12 ppg) and Muggsy Bogues (‘90, 9 ppg) were higher. Chris Paul’s best season was 4.7, Stockton’s 4.3. Trae Young had 207 more assists last season, and it cost him 235 more turnovers.
• Hot potato. 84 touches a game (among the 30 players who hold the ball most, only Trae and Jokić had more), but just 6 seconds per touch. Catch, read, release.
• Every second counts. 1.85 potential assists (passes that lead straight to a shot) per minute holding the ball, 2nd only to Jokić (2.05). LeBron 1.78, Luka 1.25, SGA 0.95, Brunson 0.82.

*Playmakers = top 40% of the league in assist rate.

Where it’s not that simple:

• Low scoring load. Only 21% of Pacers plays end with him (shot, free throws or turnover), low for a star. He makes the offense run rather than carrying it as a scorer.
• On/off is noisy. It depends on lineups and teammates, so it’s a clue, not proof.
• The Achilles question. An Achilles affects the first step, not the reads. The test this season is whether the 5.6 comes back with him.

My take: creates like a star, uses the ball like a role player. If the decisions come back, the next anonymous poll should come with full names.

Curious what you think. Is assist-to-turnover an overrated stat, or is this the most underrated skill in the league?

(I make these NBA data breakdowns regularly, more on IG u/weilbros)

​

1. Murray - Johnson — 53.0%

2. Jokic - Murray — 52.6%

3. Jokic - Johnson — 52.3%

4. SGA - Holmgren — 51.9%

5. Vassell - Wembanyama — 51.9%

6. Murray -Watson — 51.7%

7. Jokic - Braun — 51.6%

8. Murray - Braun — 51.6%

9. LeBron - Smart — 51.5%

10. Robinson - Thompson — 51.3%

11. Cunningham - Thompson — 51.3%

12. LeBron - Ayton — 51.3%

13. Vassell - Champagnie — 51.3%

1. Deni Avdija — 70.0%
   
2. Leonard Miller — 65.6%
   
3. Sandro Mamukelashvili — 57.1%
   
4. Scottie Barnes — 54.8%
   
5. Bennett Stirtz — 54.8%
   
6. Brandon Williams — 54.8%
   
7. Yaxel Landeborg — 54.8%
   
8. Quentin Grimes — 53.3%
   
9. Ty Jerome — 53.3%
   
10. RJ Barrett — 50.0%

1. Boston Celtics — 134.0
   
2. Houston Rockets — 125.0
   
3. Dallas Mavericks — 124.5
   
4. Brooklyn Nets — 123.0
   
5. Miami Heat — 120.7
   
6. Indiana Pacers — 120.0
   
7. Atlanta Hawks — 119.5
   
8. Memphis Grizzlies — 118.0
   
9. Chicago Bulls — 117.3
   
10. New Orleans Pelicans — 117.0

Everyone says Luka’s defense is bad, so I pulled the NBA.com tracking data (2025-26, 279 players with 1,000+ minutes) to see whether the numbers agree.

TL;DR: The eye test is mostly right. Luka covers the 2nd-least ground on defense in the NBA, faces the most rim shots of any guard, and is the most-isolated non-center, even though he rarely guards the other team’s best scorer.

Where the eye test is right:

• He barely moves. 1.63 km covered on defense per 36 minutes, 2nd least in the league (only KD covers less - he’s been in the league since 2007). A typical player covers 2.01 km.
• Teams get to the rim on him. 4.5 shots a game at the rim with Luka as the closest defender, the most of any guard (typical guard: 2.3). They make 72% of them, when 64% would be expected from those same shooters. For comparison: LeBron 64%, Edwards 62%, SGA 56%.
• Teams target him on purpose. He gets isolated 1.73 times a game (5th in the NBA, 1st Among non centers), even though only 10% of his defense is spent on the other team’s best scorer. Dort, Daniels and McDaniels each spend 25–30% on the best scorer and get isolated about half as often.
• It got worse over time. As a rookie he was the 30th slowest defender. and this season he’s 2nd.

*Typical = league median. Expected FG% = what those shooters usually make.

Where it’s not that simple:

• When teams isolate him, he allows 0.95 points per play, about league average. That stat only counts the attacker’s own shot, though. If Luka gets beaten and the ball is kicked out, the basket goes on someone else’s record.
• He’s legitimately good at a few things: 3rd among guards in defensive rebounding, 7th best at limiting threes (Again a lot of other factos included here), and among the best against pick-and-roll ball handlers (having a big body usually helps).

My take: smart hands, strong body, slow feet, and teams know it.

Curious what you think. Is there a stat I’m missing that would change the picture?

(I make these NBA data breakdowns regularly, more on IG, handle: weilbros)

1. Hugo Gonzalez — 145.2
   
2. Aday Mara — 132.7
   
3. Baylor Scheierman — 130.9
   
4. Jamal Murray — 128.3
   
5. Egor Demin — 126.2
   
6. Ace Bailey — 125.8
   
7. Sergio De Larrea — 125.7
   
8. Yaxel Landeborg — 124.6
   
9. Dillon Brooks — 124.2
   
10. Jaylen Brown — 124.1

​

1. RJ Barrett — 89.8

2. Will Riley — 89.8

3. Brandin Podziemski — 90.0

4. Nique Clifford — 91.8

5. Trae Young — 92.5

6. Yaxel Landeborg — 93.5

7. Luka Doncic — 93.6

8. Emanuel Sharp — 95.1

9. Maleek Thomas — 96.7

10. Jonathan Mogbo — 97.1

360 pass turns into a 3PM from NAW.

1. Josh Hart — 18
   
2. Michael Ray Richardson — 18
   
3. Julius Randle — 8
   
4. Mark Jackson — 7
   
5. Walt Frazier — 6
   
6. Jerry Lucas — 4
   
7. Karl-Anthony Towns — 4
   
8. Ray Williams — 3

1. Zion Williamson — 29
   
2. Kon Knueppel — 23
   
3. Jamal Murray — 20
   
4. Jalen Green — 20
   
5. Eric Gordon — 16
   
6. Victor Wembanyama — 16
   
7. Anthony Edwards — 15
   
8. Kyrie Irving — 14
   
9. Luka Doncic — 14
   
10. LaMelo Ball — 14

I built a 2026-27 NBA simulator that starts with the players, not the teams. Each player on the current roster gets a projected impact rating (EPM) from his last three seasons, adjusted for age and injuries; rookies are projected from where they were drafted. Expected games come mostly from how many games he actually played over his last three healthy seasons. One fluky injury year counts for less than a repeated injury pattern. Those player projections feed a game model trained on real past games. It accounts for both lineups’ talent, home court, rest and back-to-backs, and how teams’ styles match up: three-point volume, rim pressure, rebounding and turnovers. On games it hadn’t seen, it picked the winner 68% of the time, and its win probabilities matched how often teams actually won.
Then it plays all 1,230 games on the real schedule, 20,000 times. Each season has random injuries, players having good or bad years, and normal game-to-game luck. When someone gets hurt, his minutes go to his teammates. After that it plays out the play-in and the playoffs. Each team’s “most likely” record is the win total that came up most often, and the mean is the average across all 20,000 seasons. The range shows how much a team’s season could swing, usually about ±8 wins.